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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 52: Beginning Jan. 23, 2012, John Petersen's Follow-Up Article On FINRA Data 185 comments
    Jan 23, 2012 12:26 PM
    John Petersen

    A few days ago I wrote an article discussing the FINRA Market Maker Short Sale data that H. T. Love was kind enough to share with me. I spent the weekend slicing and dicing with the data trying to get a better feel for when various selling stockholders influenced the market and what their relative impact was. My working thesis is that shares held by Blackrock, Manatuck Hill and one-quarter of the 2009 private placement purchasers are in strong hands while the following stockholders or stockholder classes have been pressuring the market over the last 21 months.

    (click box to enlarge)

    Working from the FINRA data, I calculated the number of shares that flowed into the market during each quarter starting with Q2-2010. Then I allocated the selling volume to Special Situations and Quercus based on their SEC reports. All sales that couldn't be specifically allocated ended up in the unknown column. The only number that's an outright guess, rather than documented fact, is Q4-2011 sales by Special Situations, which I've highlighted in red.

    (click box to enlarge)

    The relevance of this kind of analysis is that it offers fascinating insight into when the selling pressure was exerted and by whom. Reporting stockholders like Quercus and, to a lesser extent Special Situations, draw the bulk of the attention (and blame) because they report their activities to the SEC. In reality, the substantial bulk of the pressure came from invisible hands that were in there pushing and shoving around the exit along with the big boys. Like I observed last week, it's been like a fire drill in a sumo training stable.

    The importance of this kind of analysis is that it shows why the selling pressures of the past are not likely to be repeated in the future. I was surprised to see that the heaviest selling activity occurred during the Q1-2011 run up and the Q2-2011 run down. In both intervals the heavy hands weren't Quercus and Special Situations. Instead the bulk of the shares that flowed into the market came from the invisible hands.

    On a go forward basis I see the market as more supply constrained. The remaining shares that are potentially available for sale break down as follows:

    The Quercus Trust2,530,851
    Blackrock7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill7,200,000
    Strong 2009 Investors3,600,000
    Total20,480,851

    Quercus has been very consistent in its selling and I think we can plan on it accounting for 10% of trading volume until the last of its shares are sold. I believe the other potential sellers are more likely to hold, particularly if the price continues to firm. That belief and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Since total trading volume in 2011 was 77.7 million shares, as compared with 22 million shares in 2010, the market must find equilibrium soon.

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Comments (185)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from Ricknplano:

     

    To add to what JP and others have said regarding management's representations on timing with NS, I specifically asked TG about the timing of orders from NS on the phone after the last CC. Tom said he expects an order or at least an announcement regarding their testing in the first Quarter of this year. He had previously expected it last quarter of 2011 but the EPA required an environmental report on any change in equipment in their yards due to ongoing compliance issues. Of course the change to batteries is, in part, in order to meet those compliance issues. But still the change required an analysis and a report and will require EPA approval. That is the reason for the 90 day or so delay, straight from the mouth of TG to you, via my ears.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    OT: If Spiegel Online is any kind of reliable indicator of sentiment, the Germans are finally coming to grips with the idiocy of their solar subsidy regime. Recent article titles include:

     

    Re-evaluating Germany's Blind Faith in the Sun – http://bit.ly/xzBucm
    Solar Subsidy 'Insanity' Will Cost Consumers – http://bit.ly/AEXg3t
    Solar Energy Row is an 'Undignified Spectacle' – http://bit.ly/yH0r2C

     

    After 14 years in Switzerland, it amazes me how fast public sentiment seems to be changing in the birthplace of the green revolution. It will be fascinating to watch.
    23 Jan 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1119) | Send Message
     
    As a fan of Freiburg, Germany which is the home of the solar industry in Germany and the greens I've long wondered when this day would come.

     

    There are building developments which are very green and very, very expensive. Parking spaces cost $15-25k annually but everyone cheats as their "Brother is visiting and parked his car in front of their house or they park it outiside the development area. This is beneficial as they can state how green they are but live the lifestyle they want.

     

    In addition these homes usually tote the fact that they make $ on their solar installation as they sell it to the grid at 2-4x what they pay for regular so their game is to sell 100% of what they make and use what they want and the electric company sends them a check each month even though they are a net user. A stupid system that makes them feel good.
    23 Jan 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    OT: Freiburg's a great town for a student. I studied there for two years and actually worked at one of the Solar Conventions at the Freiburg Messe one year. Its a nice place to live.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Really OT: My home is 7 km from Fribourg, Switzerland, which was also founded by Berchtold IV von Zähringen, the founder of Frieburg Germany. These two sister cities were the first break of the feudal system and gave rise to the European mercantile class.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm ... no new Form 4 Friday afternoon for Quercus, at least not according to my favorite view: http://bit.ly/oNHcd3

     

    They were Johnny on the spot the Previous Friday for that whole very busy week.

     

    Also nothing yet on the more definitive http://1.usa.gov/AhQbxI
    23 Jan 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Form 4 is due by the end of the second business day following the trade date, but Quercus has been a bit slow in its compliance filings for several months. I'd still expect to see something from them by later today if they were selling last week.
    23 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Zack's earnings preview for NSC tomorrow:

     

    However, our outlook on Norfolk depends on near-term headwinds such as lower coal demand projection and soaring fuel cost, thus affecting margin. Further, intense competition from other leading railroads such as Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) and CSX Corp. as well as regulatory issues surrounding the rail industry also contribute to our cautious stance on the company

     

    We have a long-term Neutral recommendation on Norfolk Southern supported by a Zacks#3 (Hold) Rank.

     

    http://bit.ly/AistqW

     

    AXPW's here to help :-)
    23 Jan 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (859) | Send Message
     
    I thought the 4 main RR's each had pretty much it's own space? Where do they compete?
    23 Jan 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >jpau ... Railroads own their road but compete for loads. There are industries within their "home" territory that make no sense for any other road but the "home" road to do the hauling. There are other industries that either have a large number of loads or diverse geographical terminal destinations, like the auto industry. Competition is much like the trucking industry. A road can haul factory-to-terminal, factory-to-interconnect (a yard where 2+ road cross paths). How they determine how to transport a load depends on whether they think they can pick up a return load or lease their equipment until it returns "home". All the roads have agreements in place for standard "tolling" for running over another RR's rails.
    23 Jan 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (859) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich
    23 Jan 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    AXPW volume looks uh, pretty tepid today. Still, I bet in about an hour and half, we see someone sell that block of ~100K again. 48 cents. Delta $h1t=0. Day=Day+1. ;)
    23 Jan 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    Two largest blocks today, 50K and 39.5K.

     

    Only 39 trades.

     

    This is setting up to benefit the market-makers. Buyers getting exhausted.

     

    I *think*.

     

    I'm hoping to have some charts up tonight that we can hammer on to see what we can see relating to shorts, price, volume and market-makers.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Thought i posted this but THANKS for doing all this work for ALL of us.

     

    If i posted this my computer isn;t showing it !!!

     

    MAP
    23 Jan 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Copy all. I would venture to say that most Axionistas have fairly full bellies by now, save for a few who are perhaps waiting on a bit more of their own fresh dry powder to arrive to put to work. What we will need are fresh *new* buyers to come to the party. And while there is some low-level geometric growth going on there (ie "tell two friends, and they tell two friends, and they each tell two friends and so on and so on") the real influx isn't probably going to happen until there is fresh confirmation/validation in the form of substantial news or concrete sales. Absent that, it's only going to be a trickle, both inflow and outflow. The bottom feeders may get some more tasty morsels, and some holders may get tired of waiting, but the dam won't burst either way I think. Not at this level. A dollar north of here maybe. Then you have a lot more folks in the money and a few things could change. But then it also depends on how much time there is to wait. Not a few I'm sure are *very* keyed on to the financing event and its March de facto deadline. Some now in the money are gonna wait until that or the CC and then reassess. But with so many irons in the fire, with so much potential for impending good news, and really not much prospect for bad, nobody wants to miss the big day.
    23 Jan 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    You posted it in the prior concentrator. But that's OK - one "Aw sh*t" wipes out a thousand "Atta Boys" so I really need to bank the latter.

     

    Thanks for the thanks! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    I've heard that there's lots of savvy(?) folks that like to wait until a dilution occurs and buy then, knowing there's usually a pps drop.

     

    If they've been following the concentrators but ignoring the "beer and whisky" analogy, they're aware of the pending financing round and have probably laid plans for that event.

     

    Those of us taking advantage of the current lows will outperform them as I *suspect* most of those that would sell on the finance will sell before the event.

     

    So we may not get (as big) a drop some are looking for.

     

    Random thoughts during a random walk (I'm so tired of looking at and adjusting charts)!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jan 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... It is kinda nice to have so many more people holding the stock than just the few large players.
    23 Jan 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I guess that's why they call it "speculation"... ;) We can only speculate... we walk it back and forth... try put ourselves in the shoes of others, try to divine what and how the various groups are thinking, what forces act on them, and consequently how they will act... One of our Axionistas is a former career intel officer, and that's probably a good skillset. Wish I had it. But even with my more primitive machinery, these next months sure provide much grist for the mill...

     

    23 Jan 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    Ahem to that. ;)
    23 Jan 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Thats what root canal does to you.. Boy, having 2 done in one day was a doozie...

     

    map
    23 Jan 2012, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    This Axionista is fully invested where AXPW is concerned until there is concrete evidence of commercial market battery sales at some volume. The prospect of a forthcoming shareholder dilution FOLLOWING one or more new sales contracts does not phase me. Dry powder reserves could well be deployed on news of sales contracts. On the other hand, should the company move forward with issue of more shares prior to more concrete evidence of market acceptance of PbC batteries, there is high probability I will help Axionistas with appetite for more and contribute to share sales volume on the sale side.

     

    Meanwhile, I will work to help develop market demand for PbC batteries. But, as the folklore axiom goes, proof of the pudding is in the eating and time for a taste test is nigh..
    23 Jan 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    481086: Just got 10k at .49c

     

    Strangely, it got broken up into two chunks.... (something that didn't happen last week). 500 shares went first, then about 2 minutes later the other 9,500 shares went.

     

    It seemed last week, that the 10k would go at one time (i.e., not be broken into smalles pieces). I'm guessing because of the more tepid volume you mentioned above.

     

    - Jason
    23 Jan 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    will see if i get filled at .486 min 7k shares bid for 15k shares
    23 Jan 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Just thinking out loud...
    Many commenters were approaching giddiness and counting their money for a few days.
    (Where did I hear one does NOT make a profit till stock is sold?)
    The "negative"..."construc... on your take
    ...comments can be a healthy breather...regroup...take a step back...reassess...catch up.
    While many of us are looking for the "spring loading" affect...as am I...
    I think we have been very fortunate (re John/Maya et al)...
    ...to have benefited from all the due diligence and very learned energy/storage/investi... (HTL) commenters.

     

    This has been an interesting and hopefully profitable journey.
    I know I've profited from many of your insights.
    (no pun intended)
    Thanks!
    23 Jan 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Since we seem to be talking about trains a lot today, thought I would post this link. Talking about the fact that, since the Keystone pipeline isn't getting built anytime soon, there will be more shipping of oil from ND via rail. Probably doesn't effect NS directly, but they aren't the only ones who need to reduce fuel costs.

     

    http://bit.ly/A6ZlKP
    23 Jan 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Adding to rail roads....

     

    I am sure this HAD to be mentioned at some point and damn if i am going to read a million posts to find it, however if a rail road is good enough for Warren Buffet i am fine waiting a few years for this to all work out.

     

    I also thank you all for kinda giving me a quick tutorial about the company and some discussions from the past. I do try to read as often as i can but i know it will be unrealistic to understand all the specs from you pros...

     

    My prior comments were not meant to downgrade what i already invested in. Just that sometimes we need to look at both sides of the coin ( being a collector ). But i have learned a ton already yet feel i haven't even scratched the surface !!!

     

    Happy to see that the stock is holding at close to 50 cents....Yet i am curious why those 10k blocks aren't getting filled as one order. Can it be that investors are now holding onto their shares ????

     

    map
    23 Jan 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    "Happy to see that the stock is holding at close to 50 cents....Yet i am curious why those 10k blocks aren't getting filled as one order. Can it be that investors are now holding onto their shares ????"

     

    What does it all mean? Not enough sellers or buyers at this price level to move the stock. Buyers waiting for news so they can climb the wall of worry about the Shelf registration.

     

    Weak sellers have exhausted their stock. Now we are back to the resting phase where it takes revenue announcements to move the company forward.
    23 Jan 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6258) | Send Message
     
    I would refrain from reading too much into why individual order blocks are being broken up as things like that are likely dependent on individual MMs situations. In other words, it’s tenuous to generalize a reason why block orders are being broken up.

     

    I am still waiting for a dip to pick up more shares. But now, I can afford to be patient.
    23 Jan 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    FPA

     

    Lesson learned!!!

     

    map
    23 Jan 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    "Can it be that investors are now holding onto their shares ????"

     

    Not only yes, but HEYLL YES! Nobody's moving until there's movement. News is a comin' though. May get here this week, maybe not until Easter, but it's comin'. And most everyone is gonna sit tight until then. Ultimately, this train's bound for glory. And the righteous and the holy, we ain't gettin' off until we reach that mountaintop... :)
    23 Jan 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Looks like we are spring loaded to me for a move into the .60's on any positive news. Maybe SS didn't clean out their sock drawer completely at Xmas contrary to our impressions - but I am just howling at the moon since I don't have any real information.

     

    We are certainly consolidating around .50 cents, both now and in the past. Looking to move my trading blocks priced in the .30's sometime before the capital raise - but not now. To dangerous.
    23 Jan 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I think I saw FANC offerking 5K at .495 for quite a while. I have a guess that there was way more than 5K available at that price, but no one was willing to pay it.

     

    If you want a big block filled, limit bid at the best offer and I bet you get filled. I suspect some people will rue the day they didn't.

     

    They ain't giving it away any more.
    23 Jan 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    wt: I've had no problem getting fills with limit orders. I've had a few get broken up, but they do get filled.
    23 Jan 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    IINDELCO posted new pictures of NS999 on Brand X several days ago. These shots are dated from 1/16/12. When you look at how they identified the locomotive it appears it is now behind locomotive 3073. I could be wrong about that, but if this is correct then it means first it has moved from the previous location where it was in storage. Second, if the loading of new PbC batteries onto the NS999 is correct and it is now paired with at least 1 regular locomotive and perhaps another behind, it looks like it is being set up for an OTR test? This would now allow NSC to test the PbC in an over the rail test similar to what Gerald Thelen outlined in his Oct. 2011 presentation. This would be moving beyond the switcher application. Exciting if correct!
    23 Jan 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    gottliep > "IINDELCO posted new pictures of NS999 on Brand X several days ago."

     

    Several Axionistas have referred to "INDELCO" and to "Brand X". Would someone care to educate me here on just who/what/where the terms refer?
    23 Jan 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    IINDELCO is a very good blogger who is an engineer by training and gives very good technical discussion of issues related to batteries, etc. Brand X is Yahoo Message Board.

     

    Sorry I forgot link to pictures:
    http://bit.ly/zr4BgC
    23 Jan 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    23 Jan 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WARNING: PLEASE READ THE BELOW COMMENT!

     

    A pretty powerful solar flare happened on Jan. 19. Tomorrow this massive space storm arrives. Airline flights over the North Pole have already been diverted. Northern latitudes should get one hell of a light show, and even us middle latitude folks might see some cool, iridescent effects in tomorrow night's sky.

     

    I know I've written that NASA expects no major solar flares to happen for some time. Well, both NASA and I were wrong. This could be a once-in-a-generation solar flare. It's that powerful. NASA is warning of widespread power outages. Potential billions in electronic damage. As much as ten times the cost of Katrina.

     

    The possiblity exists for "catastrophic outages." Already, edge of grid transformers have been shut down.

     

    In all of my 7000 plus comments, I have never once written this, this way: READ THIS BELOW STORY. NOW!

     

    http://tgr.ph/xXnjkf
    23 Jan 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    Near real time info can be found at http://bit.ly/zujN14 which is maintained by NASA
    <
    RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: Solar protons accelerated by this morning's M9-class solar flare are streaming past Earth. On the NOAA scale of radiation storms, this one ranks S3, which means it could, e.g., cause isolated reboots of computers onboard Earth-orbiting satellites and interfere with polar radio communications. An example of satellite effects: The "snow" in this SOHO coronagraph movie is caused by protons hitting the observatory's onboard camera.

     

    ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:
    -- Pretty Pic - - -
    The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site: movie. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth on Jan. 24 at 14:18UT (+/- 7 hours). Their animated forecast track shows that Mars is in the line of fire, too; the CME will hit the Red Planet during the late hours of Jan. 25.
    <
    23 Jan 2012, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
    23 Jan 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Jesus H C. Maya - you had me grabbing bottled water, ammunition, shotgun, 4 cases of Ensure, 2 cases of tuna fish, case of candy bars, 3 quarts of bourbon and heading for the nearest cave!
    23 Jan 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Maybe that's what the Mayan calender predicted???
    23 Jan 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Solar flares (storms) are regular occurrences. I believe they are 11 or 13 years cycles (?). Wouldn't the Maya has noticed and, like "Occam's_Razor" pointed out, wouldn't they have marked this cycle on the calendar?
    23 Jan 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Possibly, DRich and Occam, that the Central American Maya "may" have seen celestial light shows that happened on a 22 year cycle, which positively and categorically does not play perfectly into their calendar round. There is zero evidence I know of in glyph interpretation about solar activity...in this regard.

     

    I'm hoping this is much to about nothing.

     

    But if your power does go out tomorrow, at least you'll know why.

     

    What I'm hoping is that tomorrow I can book my room in Copan for the 12/21/12 Ending Of The World Fiesta. Rooms are selling out fast, at least in the better hotels. Some are already booked. I will be posting more about this later in the week, if my home hasn't burned down! ;-) LOL!
    23 Jan 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Occam: I doubt that. And I don't want to be an alarmist. But dang, what I'm reading I hope is wrong.

     

    This story has already been removed from MSM Bing's front page.
    23 Jan 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I wouldn't worry about the story's removal. http://tgr.ph/xXnjkf links to a page dated today, but the article presented was dated 14 June 2010 and talked (or seemed to me to talk) about a NASA "expert's" forecast three years out. Several CME's occurred in 2010 and more in 2011. (I think think I recall reading that the largest, most powerful CME ever observed occurred in 2010 or 11 but did not come earth's way.)

     

    IMO, NASA officials sometimes adopt the tactics of climate scientists and over sell DANGER to build support for continuing or expanded funding.
    23 Jan 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Related but OT. I think the Hurricane Center does a fabulous job and I don't begrudge them a penny.
    23 Jan 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... we will miss them when they are gone.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More reading: This solar storm is pretty powerful, ranked S3, only one level below "serious sh#t" level. I'm reading that satellites might be knocked out, and that flights over the north pole have been rerouted, because of harmful radiation effects.

     

    Tomorrow night, if it's clear, and if you live away from suburban glow, should be far more fun than listening to Steven Tyler sing the National Anthem.
    23 Jan 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1119) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Quick question about the ebike opportunity that you have mentioned for the battery industry. When you state ebike do you mean electric motorcycles or electric assist bicycles.

     

    That said, if we are talking e-bicycles isn't the key of that business weight? Therefore, that would be a good market for lithium than the PbC, correct? I've started to look at getting one and it's very confusing to know what size and watts one needs. Seems to be a quiet period here so I thought it might make for a good discussion.
    23 Jan 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    While electric scooter and motorcycle sales are growing rapidly, the monster numbers are electric assist bicycles. In developed countries I tend to think that lithium-ion will be preferred due to size and weight advantages. In the less developed countries of Asia, lead-acid is the overwhelming choice because it's so much cheaper. Kirk is very excited about the potential of using the PbC in e-bikes. I tend to view the opportunity as a distraction that would take a lot of time, effort and money away from more important development projects for mainline markets like automotive, rail and stationary.
    24 Jan 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1119) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reply. Previously when you or maybe Kirk spoke about E-bikes I was thinkin of a Harley e-motorcycle. Wouldn't that be a good use of battery tech such as Lithium as the weight to vehicle ratio should be a lot better than a 5200lb Fiskar.

     

    I had never heard of an ebike until I was in my local Trek store last week and was shown one. At first blush it seemed awesome for senior citizens who want to bike some but also get some help. I know of one local tourist market where people want to use bikes but they are generally older and the hills are very steep. Like you I'd expect Lithium to be a winner in developed countries but I think there could be a decent add-on market with PbC being considerably cheaper. However I don't know how much more weight is a comparable PbC vs LiOn.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    E-bikes have gotten precious little press in the US, but they're a very attractive alternative for short-trips, for the younger set and the senior set who generally aren't concerned with 30 mile trips. They can also offer some tremendous exercise benefits for people who are willing to contribute some muscle power along the way. I've been a pretty avid cyclist at several points in my life and was thrilled to discover in my 40s that a bike was every bit as much fun as it was before I got my drivers license.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    This should help AXPW greatly & soon....Gen. Y survey shows consumers choose gas/electric hybrids as vehicle of choice and are willing to pay for it.

     

    We have JLP's cost effective numbers & now have a positive consumer choice survey...and a huge market of people willing to pay for it.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jan 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Well if GM can use Axion PbCs to get the cost of a hybrid down and they bundle technology and safety packages in with the savings , then they should have a winner for years to come.
    If it were the old GM they would make this happen just about the time the GenY'ers become irrelevant purchasers.
    24 Jan 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    Maxwell Super-capacitor to start trucks: ( I am not sure how this effects the future of batteries....maybe someone here can explain)

     

    http://reut.rs/yFfBJO
    24 Jan 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Supercapacitors are a great way to store a minuscule amount of energy and deliver it very quickly at high power. They're incredibly expensive if you need to store any significant amount of energy.

     

    The data sheet for Maxwell's BCAP 1200 cells that sell for $24 each in bulk quantities is available here – http://bit.ly/vvMJHO Each BCAP 1200 can store 1.22 watt-hours of electricity. If you wanted to build a system that would store a kilowatt hour of electricity in supercapacitors, it would cost you about $20,000, while a PbC can do it for about $250.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    That link didn't work for me, but this one did:
    http://bit.ly/zNp7a0=
    24 Jan 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    John ... in your new article
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    you comment similar to this but added

     

    "There are applications where only an ultracapacitor can do the job, but those applications are extremely limited and incredibly expensive."

     

    Not sure if your focus was on the word "only," but did you consider this new truck offering in that summary? Seems to be a pretty big market if they really are significantly better than the competition, though I do note there was no mention of price or "benefits for the money" in the release.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I wrote about the Maxwell truck starter system last June. The article is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jan 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The new class 8 truck engines are very tight and the starter draw has never been higher. But it's a one time hit and that solution, IMO, is fantastic and I will get one on board when I figure out what I am going to to with the house side of things.

     

    I have a unique situation and found (AXPW) while looking for batteries for our truck which is half truck and half coach and has a medium sized (820w) solar array on the roof. Anyway, I was bound and determined to get me some (AXPW) but was told I needed more of an "energy" battery then a "power" battery. They were probably right so I bought a bunch of stock instead!

     

    However, I think they forgot about the cold weather that trucks run are required to operate in. One of these days I am going to give TG a call and talk him out of 10 30HT's...
    24 Jan 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Just call him tomorrow and tell him the Axionistas would love for him to help you test our batteries in a unique situation.
    24 Jan 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "Just call him tomorrow and tell him the Axionistas would love for him to help you test our batteries in a unique situation."

     

    Futurist, you know, I just may do something like that...
    25 Jan 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    He was nice enough to call many of us personnally after the last CC. I suspect that if he has time he would listen to a stockholders legitimte request. Of course you might find some time consuming legal documents you have to sign and put your first born child up for collateral. But I bet he would return your call.
    25 Jan 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Is this the same system you wrote about last summer?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    It sounded like a good solution that Maxwell had come up with. It is one of the reasons I followed your recommendation and purchased MXWL which has done very well by the bye.

     

    Thanks,

     

    Peter
    24 Jan 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's the same system and I expect it to be a winner for Maxwell because they can trickle charge the supercapacitor pack even if the batteries are weakened by the cold which effectively guarantees a start under almost any conditions.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    John... re: photo's of the NS999 connected to another engine

     

    IF this is indeed correct that NS is preparing for OTR testing of the NS999 with PbC batteries inside....

     

    Could we conclude that this is the "Final" testing (as in the last test) before orders for PbC would be placed? and maybe announcement of the "Plan" to convert more engines?
    24 Jan 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... The track that the NS999 is shown pictured on is the Jaunita Shop holding area in front of the Erecting & Machine Shop. The engines sitting here are work orders either inbound or outbound. What it means ... I don't know.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    Interesting info, DR. I'm going to speculate that the photo shows the NS999 moving the other locomotive, possibly as part of testing/demonstration for EPA environmental impact assessment.

     

    Of course, a fair minded person should consider it could also be that the other locomotive is being used to move the NS999 around.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Thanks for that. I know that it appears to have moved from its previous location and that seems to be good, but agree have no idea to what purpose yet. I rather doubt this will be discussed on NSC CC today. Thanks for your insight.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... You could look at the line-up of locomotives pictured as waiting their turn to go into the shop for undetermined work or coming out of the shop waiting for an opening in another shop or waiting for reassigning/relocation. Speculate away ... anything might be happening.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    Got to agree with all 3 of the above posts (DrRich,D-inv,gottliep) but one thing we know for sure is that the 999 has been moved off that sidetrack and either has had work done or is next in line. Either way, things are happening now and that is good.
    24 Jan 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    What we need is real-time satellite imagery or a continuous web-cam feed. Maybe a drone would work. Anybody local that can get on that?
    24 Jan 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Maybe we could find a reliable mole.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Are the satellites still working? ;-)
    24 Jan 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    Nice one Maya. I meant to send you a profuse thanks for allowing me to wake-up to such a positive headline, "Solar-flare brings Armageddon."

     

    -- I almost starting making paper copies of all my bank statements and calling my broker for stock paper certificates, so I have proof of my lousy net worth. :-) No wonder you are all buying the bullion.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1119) | Send Message
     
    IIRC the note on Facebook was on Dec 27th that it was going into the shops to get the new batteries.

     

    So if it reappears 3 weeks later I'd say its a good guess that the PbC batteries are fully on. Lets get that thing away from the roundhouse and out in the yard for realworld testing.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    Well, I put the charts up and ... they are not there.

     

    I must've done something wrong. Giving another try with the new publishing facility again.

     

    If I'm lucky, I'll get it right this time.

     

    Probably take an hour or so.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    That happened for me the first time I imported an image with the new system. It uploaded, appeared in the right space, and then...

     

    Vanished.

     

    I had to upload it 3 times to get it to "stick". No idea why...

     

    Offhand I would say that they may not have set aside sufficient resources to accomodate many bloggers or article writers uploading things simultaneously, and you have to "get in the que".

     

    LOL, maybe its another example of "modern social engineering", and they want us to behave like good little cattle and only create new blogs and articles between the hours of 2 and 5 am, when resources are untaxed... Reminds me of the EV philosophy.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just updated my Ending Of The World Instablog, and it took about five minutes to load.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    That's how it starts: longer than expected upload times.

     

    The next thing you know: apocalypse.

     

    D
    24 Jan 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    For me, it was the whole article. So second time I did frequent "Save Draft".

     

    Then my window manager crashed.

     

    NP - start it back up go to the write instablog page and ...

     

    Looking, looking, looking, ...

     

    I see no way to retrieve a draft and continue editing.

     

    As they say, <*sigh*>

     

    Awaiting response from support via e-mail now.

     

    I expect a button to retrieve a draft will appear somewhere in the next day or two.

     

    Not my day.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    This solar storm thing sounds like it could be another Y2K
    24 Jan 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Talking about the solar flare event...

     

    How would a PowerCube weather such a thing? Does Axion have the goods to help a company (or even a grid) get through something like this?
    24 Jan 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1119) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I think the solar flares are cool but from a day to day standpoint they are a nothingburger.

     

    Routing over the polls is very dangerous and reroutes happen. I can think of atleast 3 to 4 times in the last 10 years that airlines had to reroute over the N. Pole due to solar flares.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Hate to interrupt the apocalypse, but getting some movement up now.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Yup. caught a little upward run. Lets see if it can be sustained,,,Just happy to see a couple of pennies moving NORTH !!!!

     

    map
    24 Jan 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Over the last 18 months the pool of willing sellers has become a puddle. I think the mud at the bottom may be starting to crack. At least I hope it's starting to crack.
    24 Jan 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Looking more and more that way. Only took 100k shares to move it up 3 cents (7%). Some significant news and this thing could get nutty in a hurry.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Okay everybody, Now *when* this thing gets nutty, nobody get squirrelly, hear? ;)
    24 Jan 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Ok TA guys, what is the next resistence point are we looking to break through?? Again, a learning process for me.

     

    Oh, as a side note i looked at the photos and did anyone notice the emblem on the 999?? Well i am a horse owner and there it was !!

     

    Found another reason to add some more shares...lol...

     

    ,map
    24 Jan 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You've obviously not spent enough time in the oil patch where the wisdom is "if it flies, floats, fornicates or eats, rent it don't buy it."
    24 Jan 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... You didn't know that Norfolk Southern's emblem was the horse? The Thoroughbred of Transportation.
    24 Jan 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    MAP> .58
    24 Jan 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The wildcard in this particular resistance level is that the SMA-200 is $.59, the EMA-200 is $.541 and my VWMA-200 is $.559.

     

    I have no earthly idea of how the market will respond when a theoretical resistance level is also a theoretical breakout level.
    24 Jan 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRich...Just trying to bring some luck to the group!! Yes, i knew but seeing that symbol just sitting there right in front hit a chord in me.

     

    Been racing horses for years, so that is why waiting a few years is in my blood. Yearlings in Harness racing take at least two years to turn a profit!!!

     

    Plus, i like seeing a stock start to move upward, even if it's penny by penny...

     

    Bang....Thanks for the number..

     

    map
    24 Jan 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Nope, never heard that one....I live by if it floats and sinks i want more than a 30% discount !!! In fact you can offer me a 50% discount because i am back to flying...
    24 Jan 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    I guess we'll find out!
    24 Jan 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    So tell us, how did the market respond to such a quandary?
    30 Jan 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure yet. It looks like resistance at $.58 was futile, but we won't know for sure for another few days.
    30 Jan 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6258) | Send Message
     
    I would love to have a model of the NS999.
    24 Jan 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    FPA

     

    Picture it chugging around the Christmas tree with that battery running it !!!
    24 Jan 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2390) | Send Message
     
    "Picture it chugging around the Christmas tree with that battery running it !!! "

     

    Thanks for the image, FPA. I remember model trains under Christmas trees back in the mid 1950s. I don't think my father made much of a pretense that they were a present for me ;-)
    24 Jan 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    How cool would that be?

     

    I wonder if Axion can make TINY little PbC batteries...
    24 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    HTL where are you when I need you?

     

    Just watching the volume of the sales on the bid...most of them are <1000 shr. blocks, i have seen 200,,500, 600, and this smells of a MM that does not want this stock to break out yet.

     

    It wouldn't take much volume to move this big time.
    24 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Something appears definitely changing in tone and tenor. Just a few data points thus far, but one day we won't be in Kansas anymore...
    24 Jan 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    LT: Been fighting to get my charts up - decided today would be a good day to not push things.

     

    As to the price move and volume, still in typical consolidation behavior. That doesn't give us a direction but it is a common occurrence before continuing the trend ... or reversing.

     

    However, Wednesday and Thursday last there was a double pipe that *may* suggest a nice move up in the works. But last time I saw it work it took a while for the move up to develop.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Its 2:15 EST. 5 trades at $.54 occur totaling 22,000 shares.
    The asking price just went to $.55. A slow climb up the wall. But moving up never the less.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Futurist: We Axionistas are a hard group to please. We are currently up 28.5% since last Thursday. In my book, that's a pretty fast climb. Especially without news driving that climb.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    Maya: "We Axionistas are a hard group to please."

     

    I wouldn't necessarily say that. Don't you recall it was just a few short months ago we were all so pleased to be able to be buying this stock at .50 levels. Little did we know it was going to drop to sub.-.30 for no real good reason. It is true we are not pleased yet at all, but we are beginning to be slightly more comfortable as we move farther away from the depths of hell that we resided in in nov and dec.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jakurtz: Agreed.

     

    Watching Level 2 today has me thinking those days are long gone. I really liked John's piece about the AONE offering. Shows that whatever dilution is coming, will most likely not be anything more than a routine and very short drop.

     

    I'm watching/reading the chat today going on over in tripleblack's REE thread about Lynas (and Aussie REE miner). They announced a $100M (complex) offering, and the stock is up 3.08% today.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    The day Axion announces they have secured financing needs to continue operations for the next two years will be a wonderful day. It will effectively give them funding to last through all the announcements we expect coming over the next year with BMW, GM, NS, PowerCube sales etc. I have a hard time believing the market is going to begin selling the stock at much of a discount to what the current price will be at that time, even with whatever discount might be going to those that are doing the financing.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    It was a $225m capital raise via da boyz in New York (translates into 171mill+ common shares at a notional $1.25 each). That's almost exactly 10% dilution. AND the money is not really being used to add new capacity or "add a shot of whiskey to a glass of beer", its to help pay for last second and massive construction delays and changes wrought by local politics in Malaysia.

     

    I am surprised its levitating like this, but then again the pink sheet volume is miniscule compared to the ASX home market (where LYC is part of the dominant ASX100 index). Australian reactions will determine where this one goes, though I would LOVE it if they (for once) follow our pink sheet lead...

     

    If Lynas can do this well after a 10% dilution, who knows what Axion might accomplish with a careful addition "of a shot of whiskey" where it can do some real good.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6258) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if John's Grid Storage Article helped move the needle today?
    24 Jan 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm a firm believer in the proposition that I can't move the needle and the only thing a blogger can really do is draw people's attention to a stock and give them enough reason to dig into the available data and do their homework. I discussed the phenomenon in greater detail here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jan 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    John's article today could very well have helped move the share price. Though, I'm wondering a bit more about the possibility of speculation/news leakage on the Norfolk Southern front. Since the NS999 holds potential for reducing fuel costs as well as CO2, NOx, etc. emissions and EPA penalties, it would not be OT to announce expansion of the EL fleet as a cost cutting and profit enhancing measure in the NSC quarterly performance and outlook press release and/or CC.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    I'm not a RR expert but even I perceive the railroads are feeling more and more pressure to reduce fuel costs--crude remains at $100, coal shipments are disappointing, and competition is growing. And I've read that fuel costs are a crazy-high %age of oper costs--something like 80-90%. So if you're RR mgmt, what do YOU do? Well, one of the first things I do is try to reduce by far my biggest expense, as it's material and partially under my influence. Enter PbC. CNBC even had WPRT's CEO on last night saying there is now RR interest in exploring natural gas powered locomotives. Sounds like motivated executives to me.

     

    PS--here comes the 58 cent test?
    24 Jan 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mr. Investor ... NatGas has been tried on the Railroads back in the late 1980's & 90's. It was something less than spectacular. I doubt very much if it is ever given serious consideration unless they go back to steam to generate electricity.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Thx. All the better for AXPW, in that it further reveals the RRs high motivation to cut costs. Feels like they're getting almost desperate--looking under rocks now.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... The Railroads have always been desperate for more horsepower and lower fuel costs .... or at least since the mid-1850's.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    But the pace of change redefined the word, "glacial". Seems like that pace may be picking up--maybe we'll even have some breakthroughs.. Took about the same amt of time for professional sports to change, too. Now everybody uses quantitative analysis. Would be nice to say, "Now everybody uses PbC."
    24 Jan 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    DR, what were the shortcomings? Would the recent advent of microturbines and more robust batteries (ours) open up an avenue for a new approach? With the current and projected magnitude of cost differences between natgas and diesel, it's hard to escape the conviction that there must be some way to make it work...
    24 Jan 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... I don't have the report handy right now but let's just put it down to "range anxiety" with the locos, safety hazard in the fueling terminals, expensive equipment & infrastructure for fueling & high maintenance costs. When I get home I'll try it remember to give some more detail.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2390) | Send Message
     
    481086: Dealing with LNG at anything under ocean tanker size is infrastructure expensive. It also costs a bunch of energy to compress and cool the NG to turn it to a liquid.
    Basically, unless your NG is trapped near a well and you have to liquify it to get it out, there isn't a big reason to go to LNG.

     

    The only good thing about using LNG to fuel a combustion heat engine driven vehicle is that you have plenty of waste heat to convert it back to a gas.
    Or you might cool the air for the engine and battery car. On the southern routes that might be a nice fringe benefit ;-)
    24 Jan 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget energy density and safety - LNG gets more energy in the same space and tends to not ignite in quantity as quickly or explosively as CNG. Tanks can be lighter too.

     

    Those factors might justify the energy expense, considering how much NG we have.

     

    We don't have enough liquifaction plants though. Big $ money would be needed to build them.

     

    One in Alaska and one down in LA (but that's to receive LNG and re-export - not sure if it can do the liquifaction originally).

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Thanks gents. One can certainly respect all the issues. But dang, if this natgas glut is really for real, and really will persist, the company that somehow makes it work, stands to reap. In my simple thinking, I always come back to the notion of GTL on a broader scale. Would solve lots of the compression/ liquification/ storage... issues as relates to use as transportation fuel. I remember someone somewhere talking about methanol conversion. CH4 to CH3OH sure does *seem* like it could be the doable ticket... but obviously if it was so easy, everybody'd be doing it. Still, I can't help but keep coming back to that cost differential. The more established it becomes, the more it appears to be permanent, all the substitution schemes are going to get fresh looks...
    24 Jan 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the energy density is too low for what the RRs have to get done. If we ever get enough LNG plants in this country it might be worth another shot. It wouldn't overcome the reduced available HP, but might allow a longer range.

     

    Larger IC engines and/or technology advances (computers, etc.) might make it a reasonable one-off trial again with NG prices now so low, down from the old 6/8/10/12 : 1 price ratios to now around 50:1 or so. This price differential more than offsets the reduced energy content. If economics, rather than technical inability to get the power and range needed, was the primary reason for flopping in the past, that hurdle is removed for now.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    Part of the equation is (potential net) energy in vs. net out. Conversion always costs energy and the demand must be substantial and/or critical to really justify the net energy loss.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    DR,
    Nat Gas interest by the railroads is very much alive. WPRT's HD division recently signed an agreement of some kind with the Canadian authorities to develop a new engine for their locomotive engines. I don't recall the specific nature of the agreement, but IIRC it was a JV.
    30 Jan 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    WPRT has patents on its modification of the fuel injection system. I'm there are others as well, but that is the only 1 that's coming to mind right now
    30 Jan 2012, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    Hybrids gaining steam...going to force auto makers to move more quickly soon. This from SA just now:

     

    2:48 PM Toyota (TM) is lifting its 2012 output forecast for its recently-launched Aqua compact hybrid by 80K units, to 320K. The automaker, which had a difficult 2011, also expects sales of its Prius hybrid to increase 22% this year, to 8.58M. Comment! [Consumer]
    24 Jan 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Wow, nice pop above .50.... I'm glad I accumulated under .50, just in case we don't see a pull back below .50 for a while (or ever)
    24 Jan 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    At 15:07 the bid went to .54/2500 shr....the MM immediately hit it with a 200 shr. sale and guess what...there is still 2500 on the bid.

     

    the MM has been testing every move today to see how strong it is.

     

    Makes me wonder, with all the millions of shares traded <.40-.25, IF TG pulls off a private placement and no shares are available for MM's to cover....We could see the mother of all short squeezes.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    As wtblanchard pointed out, Quercus has not submitted a Form 4 recently, so maybe they have been out of the market the past few days and some selling pressure has eased. Waiting for the 50-100k block to sell again this afternoon.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Volume spike including an 18K block off at .57

     

    Wonder if that was Quercus?

     

    20K available at .58 from various sources includes 15K from UBSS

     

    300 shares went at .58 ... careful.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Wow ... nevermind ...
    18K off (summed) at .58 and now 10K at .59 ... Wow
    24 Jan 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Curiouser and curiouser... One additional thing: XIDE's CC is sked for 10 Feb.. hopefully a good update on their AGM plant timeline. Maybe someone will ask an Axion question. It would sure be good to know how much life (if any) is left in that relationship...
    24 Jan 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    gonna have to wait for financing before i can buy anymore.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    You guys who have been waiting to buy more can now get a few shares at .565-58. The MM's have let it rise to the next level.

     

    Read HTL's posts on MM's in the last concentrator and compare to the last couple of days. It is a picture perfect match of how the somewhat manipulate stocks.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to appoint myself as the wet blanket Axionista.

     

    I'm as excited as anyone about the future of Axion power and all the shares we hold.

     

    But I think we should curb our euphoria over 1 day of a few cents gain on a volume of a few hundred thousand shares.

     

    I think we jinxed ourselves last time with all that talk of champagne and airplane shopping.

     

    And it will help us weather any other adversity if we control our emotions at every level.

     

    D
    24 Jan 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    D, it takes a strong individual to stand up to the irrational exuberance of friends and insert a dash of raw reality into a tsunami of fantasy. I know, I'm just now seeing the results over on the REE Concentrator where its been me insisting that the published completion schedule was not trustworthy, and that the milepost would be June or July instead of January 30...

     

    I'm lucky right now that most of the guys didn't ride me out of the blog on a virtual rail!

     

    So, OK, how are you going to tamp down the craziness? Slip some saltpeter into the champaigne?

     

    LOL, but seriously, it IS important to be real about expectations, particularly when it comes to milestones and exuberance.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just want more days where we're getting bombarded by the sun.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Interesting idea, Maya. Ying and yang with the story about the effects of the full moon...
    24 Jan 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    No airplane rides for you! ;)
    24 Jan 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Shoot, I'm supposed to take a flight tonight (I'm not kidding).... should I cancel?
    24 Jan 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    They will move the flight if necessary it really only pertains to flight near the north pole. I just read on Reuters that this is the strongest flare in six years, so nothing to grossly out of the ordinary.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    TB: "D, it takes a strong individual to stand up to the irrational exuberance of friends and insert a dash of raw reality into a tsunami of fantasy".

     

    Naw! He knows we'll have a "group hug" when all is said and done. He's just "Looking for Love", but in this case, in all the right places! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1119) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely. During the batch of flares that he mentioned the trans-pac flights (Jap-Eastern US) were affected in that the the US Airliners who flew two engines flew west over Canada and refueled in Anchorage and then flew down. Nothing major.

     

    Even if they did have to divert a land at some old Russian airbase in Siberia the pilots have some cool all weather gear that is stored. It looks like the old US spacesuits for landing on the moon. good for the pilots, none for everyone else. ;)
    25 Jan 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    A sight I watch
    http://bit.ly/AzxFqp

     

    shows a MM (I'm assuming this, maybe I'm wrong) has had a bid for .24 all day and now has moved it to .55. Does this have any significance?

     

    Just hit .57 momentarily.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    Read HTL's next post below this reply....Yes, I think the increase in the bid is significant....earlier when they only bid .24 -- they basically did not want to own AXPW....now they are willing to pay .55+

     

    This is very typical of them moving the price to free up shares.

     

    HTL..there always has to be a buyer...this time the MM's let the price rise to the next level, where before they were trying to keep it under .50.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Not really. A different individual decided to get real that does business with that market maker.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for reply. I went back and re-read HTL's link to MM activities as well.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    LT, they are probably increasing their short position at increasingly higher prices and will try to flood the market at some point. they could continue to get squeezed esp with news but will likely prompt some selling (i call this opportunity). i have a significant position in axpw and am not afraid of adding at higher prices, but with the price action we've seen this month i will remain patient.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    At 15:20, buy:sell ~6:1. I wonder, with the trade sizes (I'll inspect closer after close), if we're not seeing that market-maker squeeze.

     

    That would be icing on the cake. Could be just normal retail buyers though - nothing wrong with that.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Just hit 200 day SMA and the prior high of 1/11-1/12. Good volume.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    I am just wondering if today's spike has anything to do with Norfolk Southern CC today after market close. If that is the case....buyers today are someone from NS..........?
    24 Jan 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    or someone guessing NS might say something.
    24 Jan 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    HTL.... I'm seeing the MM widen the bid/offer spread... I think you are on to something!

     

    S Q U E E Z E ! ! !
    24 Jan 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm.... MM is delaying filling my order... wonder what that means....
    24 Jan 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    FWIW.... that was the biggest break up (in chunks) to fill a simple 10k order I've seen thus far...
    24 Jan 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    HTL.... now is where the MM plays with the spread. Note it is .53 X .57
    24 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    It's gonna get bumpy....
    24 Jan 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    The MM's let the price run up to an ask of .60 - bid 57-58 then dropped the price of the bid and BOOM! 100,000 shares trades instantly. ROFL
    We fall for it every time!
    24 Jan 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    LT... it's all part of the game. It's undeniable the chart is in improving. A close around .55 would be a constructive day....
    24 Jan 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    99.5K at .561 after the break from .59
    24 Jan 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    One thing that may also be in play - *if* we had tax-loss selling mid-December on by folks that believe in the story, they could be starting to dribble back in now.

     

    If so, we might see volumes building to match what we saw late December.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Something is going on...........what is that SOMETHING? ............
    24 Jan 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Spread is re-tightened.... it's sooooo transparent!
    24 Jan 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » After hours moved the stock back up to $0.58. 100 shares.

     

    (of course, this doesn't count)
    24 Jan 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5670) | Send Message
     
    HTL...I can't wait to see your numbers tonight...ain't no way they were gonna let this thing close >.60 today.

     

    You new guys witnessed a masterful MM play today to shake shares out.

     

    gonna be gone so see u guys tomorrow. It was quite an exciting day.

     

    P.S. Some weird after hours stuff going on...schwab shows some at .59 on huge volume.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    LT or anyone else that knows about MM's, Could you explain a little more, I think I know what you mean but I just want to confirm what it was they were doing exactly?
    24 Jan 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    728.4K Volume ... didn't see that coming at noon today.

     

    was happy it was better than yesterday, and then ....
    24 Jan 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6258) | Send Message
     
    A lot of price action at the end. Level 2 data must be interesting today. Must have been some good sized blocks going off at the end. Probably big Q action.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Unusual AH trades totaling $0.58/$0.59. Part of that was $0.59 @ 40K.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. Last trade on my Level II (Thinkorswim/TD Ameritrade) is 15:59:45 10K @ .54

     

    otcbb.com (at the moment) shows
    $0.5900 40,000 OBB 16:08:25
    $0.5800 10,500 OBB 16:02:25
    $0.5800 100 OBB 16:01:11
    24 Jan 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    STOP THE PRESSES..... EVERYONE LOOK AT THE AFTER-HOURS.... WE JUST HAD A 40K PRINT AT .59

     

    It wasn't me.... anyone here accumulating after hours?
    24 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Haeger
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Those were form t trades, perhaps QT?
    24 Jan 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't forget to check out the potential celestial night show tonight. Maybe we'll see some Norfolk Southern green horses dashing across the sky!

     

    This way to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jan 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    The NS CC is in like 10 minutes. I bet dollars to donuts Axion's name appears somewhere at least once in that slide deck.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    OT
    Some Chevy dealers turn down additional Volt inventory

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/x6EKSy
    24 Jan 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Was L4W sent a private message about this?

     

    I've only been active here the last 3 months or so, thus I don't know the troll history here, and I never really read the Yahoo board cause it was largely a waste of time . I get we REALLY don't want that to happen here. But the person asked a reasonable question about patents, and if this had been me and allowing for the possibility that they might not be a troll, I would have been upset to have treated this way publicly as well. In my younger days, I might have lashed out in response.

     

    Expecting someone to read all or many of John's articles (and God help you, the comments) plus the Concentrators before they ask a question is not reasonable in my opinion. Getting publicly attacked by a couple of long term members right off the bat is not what we should be about in my opinion. Being privately given the lay of the land, and in a consistent (and thorough) way via the "form letter" is more efficient (not wasting time and emotion reinventing the wheel for every POTENTIAL troll) and more fair in my opinion.

     

    With a form letter that states our position and expectations, then anyone whose first instinct is to attack someone new should instead send a msg to our "owner" who should in turn send the form message (along with something to personalize it if obviously needed.)

     

    L4W, please be quiet on this post and let us talk about it.

     

    I haven't looked at BW's site recently, but perhaps the form letter might point there as one place for new members to get up to speed since we don't have anything like a FAQ.

     

    Possibly a link to the Form Letter should be included as the "Footer" in the Preamble "article" of every Concentrator as well, along with the "standard" we appreciate the Thumbs Up line.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    I believe the point of gathering in ones living room for a real discussion is to be respectful and civil. Something the Axion message board at brand X has never been. I have never seen another board so trashed as the Axion board at Yahoo. I have always believed this is sponsored by the original lawsuit parties. The original Mega C fraudsters.
    I also believe that Maya is only trying to protect his living room from these same persons. For anyone to ask Maya to quiet down so he can ask questions because he has not the time or inclination to do research is a bit over the top. Whether Maya was right or wrong it was his call.

     

    Now, when the time comes that it is not Maya's call, we probably should examine what the rules of the living room to be. Just to be clear. My radar went off early on L4W. Doesn't mean I'm right.
    But I sure would like to keep this living room as pleasant as possible.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6258) | Send Message
     
    First rule: This is a no troll zone.
    Second rule: Read first rule.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    FPA has a great disclaimer on his instablog for the "Stability of the European Union"

     

    It reads simply and effectively:

     

    WARNING: This is a no Troll Zone. If you are disruptive, your comments will be deleted.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Jan 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
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