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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 53: Beginning January 24, 2011, John Petersen's Article On FINRA Data 182 comments
    Jan 24, 2012 4:17 PM
    John Petersen

    A few days ago I wrote an article discussing the FINRA Market Maker Short Sale data that H. T. Love was kind enough to share with me. I spent the weekend slicing and dicing with the data trying to get a better feel for when various selling stockholders influenced the market and what their relative impact was. My working thesis is that shares held by Blackrock, Manatuck Hill and one-quarter of the 2009 private placement purchasers are in strong hands while the following stockholders or stockholder classes have been pressuring the market over the last 21 months.

    (click box to enlarge)

    Working from the FINRA data, I calculated the number of shares that flowed into the market during each quarter starting with Q2-2010. Then I allocated the selling volume to Special Situations and Quercus based on their SEC reports. All sales that couldn't be specifically allocated ended up in the unknown column. The only number that's an outright guess, rather than documented fact, is Q4-2011 sales by Special Situations, which I've highlighted in red.

    (click box to enlarge)

    The relevance of this kind of analysis is that it offers fascinating insight into when the selling pressure was exerted and by whom. Reporting stockholders like Quercus and, to a lesser extent Special Situations, draw the bulk of the attention (and blame) because they report their activities to the SEC. In reality, the substantial bulk of the pressure came from invisible hands that were in there pushing and shoving around the exit along with the big boys. Like I observed last week, it's been like a fire drill in a sumo training stable.

    The importance of this kind of analysis is that it shows why the selling pressures of the past are not likely to be repeated in the future. I was surprised to see that the heaviest selling activity occurred during the Q1-2011 run up and the Q2-2011 run down. In both intervals the heavy hands weren't Quercus and Special Situations. Instead the bulk of the shares that flowed into the market came from the invisible hands.

    On a go forward basis I see the market as more supply constrained. The remaining shares that are potentially available for sale break down as follows:

    The Quercus Trust2,530,851
    Blackrock7,150,000
    Manatuck Hill7,200,000
    Strong 2009 Investors3,600,000
    Total20,480,851

    Quercus has been very consistent in its selling and I think we can plan on it accounting for 10% of trading volume until the last of its shares are sold. I believe the other potential sellers are more likely to hold, particularly if the price continues to firm. That belief and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Since total trading volume in 2011 was 77.7 million shares, as compared with 22 million shares in 2010, the market must find equilibrium soon.

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Comments (182)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No need to point out who made the last comment in the previous Concentrator!

     

    (AXPW): Unusual AH trades totaling 50.6K $0.58 and $0.59 @ 40K.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    Actually I had to correct that - misleading. Was $0.58/$0.59 with 40K of it being $0.59.

     

    I got it corrected *after* you picked it up.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    I've got it at .59 in the after-hours. Let's hope for .60s tomorrow!
    24 Jan 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    ALL: Do NOT forget to thumbs up this concentrator!
    24 Jan 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    How many think today's run was the result of the 999 photo? Which makes me wonder how many lurkers are reading over our shoulders? It is clear something is going on with that choo choo and it presumably involves Axion.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/wylKMd

     

    has a pic of NS999!

     

    slide says CapEx of $212 Million for all Locomotive spending include New, Alternative, Rebuilds, Upgrades, and Emission kits

     

    http://bit.ly/Ax7ISd
    24 Jan 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Yep, a picture's worth a thousand words, but oh how sweet it would have been had just one word appeared--- AxionPower ;) But the pertaining comments got to be coming up soon... he's talking slide 16 now... c'mon slide 42!
    24 Jan 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (656) | Send Message
     
    From the link WT gave, Norfolk Southern capital improvement budget for 2012:
    212 million dollars (pie chart shows 242 million) for New Locomotives, Alternative Power Locomotives, Locomotive Rebuilds and upgrades, and Emissions Kits. Shows picture of NS999.
    24 Jan 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    A picture is worth a thousand words! Go NS999!

     

    OT: I do like the classic Sun Microsystems favicon. Good to see NS is running some bona fide iron!
    24 Jan 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Weird, the slide with the NS999 says $212 Million, but I just heard the speaker say $242 Million, and all the pie charts say $242 Million.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    NS officer describing the capex budget for 2012 added that the $242 million total provided for 35 new locomotives plus investments on alternative power, etc.

     

    Anyone have a feel for the cost of new locomotives?
    24 Jan 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Wow! They certainly aren't worried about egg on their face after putting that photo so prominently in the presentation!
    24 Jan 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    wtb, nice catch. The pie numbers add up correctly to 2.4 billion... so the 212 million might be a typo... though it might also mean 212 for locomotives, 30 million for Axion... ;)
    24 Jan 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Excellent observation Bang. I missed that element of significance totally. 64,ooo dollar question... are they going to talk about it!?!
    24 Jan 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (656) | Send Message
     
    This should answer many of the concerns raised recently that Norfolk Southern is still going forward with Axion's PbC batteries. (Unless another has sneaked in under the radar) With a presentation apparently void of specifics of other company names, it is indeed a strong signal.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    Interesting observation, WTB! I had not noticed the $212 million on the slide with the NS999 pic (slide 42). The CC speaker did reference $242 million, as you noted, which agrees with the pie chart presented in slide 41 preceding the NS999 pic.

     

    Would be wonderful if the difference between the two ($242M vs. $212M) capital outlays is amount planned for alternative power locomotives. The speaker did note plans to buy 35 new locomotives so if we had an idea of what those cost we could back into a number planned for alternative power locomotives, rebuilds, and emission kits.

     

    One of the earlier concentrators had a comment suggesting NS planned about 35 rebuilds annually. I suppose some of the "rebuilds" could come out as alternative power locomotives.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    thanks for listening to the NS presentation.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... A new locomotive costs more than twice that of a rebuilt locomotive, and while it is more modern, delivery can take up to 10 months. Prices back in 2001 were from about $1,500,000 for DC units like an SD70 to about $2,300,000 for an AC unit such as the SD90MAC, with the average price for a new locomotive at about $1,700,000. Surprisingly these prices are only about 10% higher (at least as of 2009) today.

     

    Here is the window sticker for an older, but quite common, Over-the-Road engine (courtesy of Fred Harrison, Central Point, OR)

     

    SD70ACe

     

    Basic Features

     

    Engine
    16-710G3C-T2 High efficiency turbocharger
    Electronic fuel injection
    Tier-2 emissions certified
    AC Traction Technology
    Utilizes truck-controlled IGBT inverters for higher inherent reliability
    Simple, robust motor design
    Extends motor overhaul interval
    Gen2 FIRE™ System

     

    Transreflective LCD color display for enhanced readability
    Provides a single integrated archive for ease of maintenance and troubleshooting
    Based on an open architecture which supports numerous 3rd party applications
    Various wireless communications packages available (Cellular, Wireless LAN, etc) to support IntelliTrain™ and Locomotive Management Services
    HTSC Bolsterless Truck

     

    Designed for one million miles between overhauls
    Reduce maintenance due to fewer components
    Specifications

     

    Total weight on rails - 408,000 lbs.
    Height - 15'11"
    Overall length - 74'3" ft.
    Fuel capacity - 4,900 gal.
    Lube oil capacity - 420 gal.
    Cooling water capacity - 275 gal.
    Cab Features

     

    Three seat crew arrangement
    Ergonomic workstation
    Increased leg clearance and mobility
    Optimized access to the radio
    Easier maintenance access
    Enhanced HVAC ventilation
    Air System

     

    Direct drive air compressor
    Wabtec FastBrake™ Locomotive Brake System
    Advanced onboard diagnostics
    FastBrake™ intelligence integrated into EM2000 and Gen2 FIRE™
    Simpler FastBrake™ design allows for 50% reduction in parts count

     

    OPTIONAL PERFORMANCE FEATURES
    IntelliTrain - Remote monitoring and analysis
    Radial truck
    Integrated Distributed Power
    Global Positioning System (GPS)
    Electronic fuel gauge with or without dynamic AEI tags
    Remote download of event recorder
    24 Jan 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    What is the significance of NS999????
    24 Jan 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Haeger
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Axion likely inside
    24 Jan 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, that what I thought! :-)
    24 Jan 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, DR. With prices anywhere close to those for new locomotives the 2012 capital budget allocation for locomotives is clearly a big one. At an average cost of $2.5 million (nearly 50% higher than your $1.7 million average historical number), 35 new locomotives would account for less than $90 million. Assuming rebuilds are half the cost of new, 35 rebuilds would account for a further $45 million. Something on the order of $110 million would appear dedicated to alternative power locomotives, and emission kits.
    24 Jan 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Those new GE hybrid locos will cost $3M+
    24 Jan 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    DR ... At your 50% increase over historical cost for an AC type SD90MAC of $2.3 million, my estimate would still apply since the implied $3.45M cost is in line with the $3M+ estimated for new GE hybrids.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Don't have shorts yet, but the buy:sell ended at 5.06:1, including the AH trades.

     

    Buys 599,781, sells 118,597 and unknown 10,100, totaling 728,478, of which 50.5K will *not* appear on FINRA short sales (which I suspect might be a doozy tonight in volume but maybe not in percentage) as they only include in-market trades.

     

    Do be aware that the AH trades were flagged "form t". I suspect these were behind-the-scenes "cross trades" - likely intra or inter-broker.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Tomorrow stands to be REALLY interesting. Think treble volume might be looking for too much?
    24 Jan 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Good catch on the 999. NS' decision to use that picture would seem to be a sign that the PbC testing is going well.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    I just put my Christmas tree back up and set up my choo choo set. Left for the afternoons doctors appointment, (having knee surgery Friday ) and missed all the fun !!!

     

    I know one day does not make a stock but like i said i will take the rise pennies at a time, anytime !!!!

     

    map
    24 Jan 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    So, how do we ask Deb at NSC a question about their fuel efficiency programs?
    24 Jan 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    I wish these guys would quit talking about freaking coal and start talking about precious diesel! sheesh!
    24 Jan 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    At the least the M* guy asked about 2012 capex, to which Deb only said, "includes...purchasing and installing equipment with our locomotives..." A little more info would be nice!

     

    Still, I'm getting more and more comfortable that an NS order is forthcoming soon--their summary capex budget is public now, their slide showing the NS999 (not an accident, I gotta believe), the increasing need to lower fuel costs with WTI at $100. I hope Axion has the green light to make an announcement.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Also, one questioner mentioned something (quickly and offhand) about "cool stuff you showed us at Altoona..." Anyone else hear that?
    24 Jan 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    Is it legal to put a picture of the NS999 at the beginning of the concentrator??? JP might have that answer..

     

    Just think it might be a good idea as newbies can then actually see the magnitude of what all are talking about.

     

    Plus would not mind seeing my JETS GREEN color and the beautiful horse daily !!

     

    map

     

    map
    24 Jan 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    MAP> You would have to take the photo yourself or obtain permission to use a copyrighted photo. The one possible photo source without copy right issues would be the Federal Rail Administration who provided some or a large portion of the cost of creating the original 999 program.

     

    I'm going to check FRA website for photos of the 999 I can use on the website archive I have been building, FRA photos taken by their photographers are fair game to use as are NASA photos, National Weather Service photos, or any other government photo.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MAP: If an announcement comes, then I will park that announcement in the header. We may see that announcement as soon as tomorrow...a guess.
    24 Jan 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Let's be careful though not to do anything to: 1) make TG's job harder by 2) pi$$ing off NS...
    24 Jan 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Well, if all else fails, we could always grab Herman Cain Smiling in that Cig Ad ... and mention our 999 plan :-)
    24 Jan 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Nope on government owned photos! FRA's photos were provided to FRA by Norfolk Southern and belong to NS.
    24 Jan 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Awesome! +1!
    24 Jan 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    481086

     

    I understand your concern but i never heard of any company not liking free advertising. Well maybe TRIPLE could draw up a quick picture for us ??? If you haven't seen his work you are missing some real good stuff. He can make it look scientific and put all the bells and whistles ( choo choo ) on it if he did not mind. Just trying for more exposure, thats all..Don't want to piss anyone off but we aren't owned by anyone.

     

    Hence people should be happy to see their information talked about..imho...But maybe i am off base here..

     

    All i know if you wanted to put my business picture up and talk about my firm i would be pleased to get all the info out to the public..

     

    Just a thought !!

     

    map
    24 Jan 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    I was just trying to be mindful of some of John's admonishments... he often talks about how the big names don't want their pipsqueak potential suppliers talking up their not-yet-solidified relationships. Until they're solidified. I believe he also mentioned having talked with NS seeking amplifying info for a potential article. I think he said they told him no, not yet, and to be quiet and go away, for now...

     

    I would just wanna ensure, even in as obscure a place as this, that we don't create some kind of minor dustup or embarrassment for TG to have to clean up. (Hey if McHattie can be such a grownup, I can play one too!) ;)
    24 Jan 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 481086: It's public domain knowledge that TG has stated that there will be a NS order the first quarter of this year.

     

    ####

     

    I also want to point out that all of us are individual investors, with individual goals or price points of when to buy Axion, how long each is going to hold Axion, and when each of us will sell Axion.

     

    I'll add that all of us who have brokers should talk to them about their own investing tolerance and risk.
    24 Jan 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Maya, of course. I just wanted to raise the flag. Just in case. I'm quite happy for it to get shot down. ;)
    24 Jan 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    What should we do if we don't have brokers?
    24 Jan 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Deamiter: Then it's up to you to determine your own risk tolerance.
    24 Jan 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    wtb > "Well, if all else fails, we could always grab Herman Cain Smiling in that Cig Ad ... and mention our 999 plan :-) "

     

    :-) THAT is GOOOOD! And quick!
    24 Jan 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    BANG.....Thanks for checking for me...
    24 Jan 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    I'm doomed!
    24 Jan 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » However, Deamiter, you've managed to surround yourself with some pretty smart investment people. The wonderful thing about Seeking Alpha, as well as this Concentrator, is that you can choose who to follow, choose whose advice via articles written and Instablogs posted that more closely resemble your investing style.

     

    I suggest for you to look into who others on this blog are following. If you notice several are following someone like John Mauldin, then you may want to add that person to your list.
    24 Jan 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1082) | Send Message
     
    take the image, distort 66 percent of it and call it free use.
    24 Jan 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter

     

    Just don't follow Maya and his Steelers...The G men are back !!! Oh Maya , IT is so bright in here tonight i don't need my lights on, any reason why??...lol...
    24 Jan 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    Let's all look through Google Images for NASA satellite photos of the 999! [/sarcasm]
    24 Jan 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    MAP: How could we see some of trip's art work? Any free online sites for us cheapos?
    25 Jan 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    SHB, if you click on tripleblack's name, there's a link to the website for his fantastic art on his profile page, not to mention the fine work his wife does as well.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jon!
    25 Jan 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    SHB

     

    Sorry, i did not see you post this question. Glad you got an answer...

     

    MAP
    25 Jan 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    Well Duh! Illustrations at the top of the instablog run by Trip. Stan Burns. I feel silly :-)
    25 Jan 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    A coupla big take-aways... their outlook seems upbeat--- share buybacks, dividend increase, economy strengthening, automotive sector improving, shale liquids and tar sands related volume ramping... and big one, PTC is sucking up a big portion of their capex, but it will be over in 2015... bottom line, these guys seem healthy enough to make substantial investments going forward...
    24 Jan 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    What is PTC? Couldn't decode it looking at the charts quickly.
    24 Jan 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    And they raised the dividend ... pretty much always a good sign :-)
    24 Jan 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    NS presentation coincides with nice pop in AXPW share price today...

     

    Pure coincidence of course...
    24 Jan 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Not sure it is coincidence, but then you can't be sure of anything in the market these days.
    24 Jan 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    PTC= positive train control... sounds like they have some kind of legal mandate to be in compliance by 2015... I haven't researched directly, but sounds like some kind of IT intensive big system whereby all railroad operators have real-time tracking and positive control of every train, at all times... others here certainly have more insight. But he did say it wasn't something that was going to add revenue or margins, but still a very real hoop they have to jump through...
    24 Jan 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Here's the link to the NS 2012 capital budget slide presentation:

     

    http://bit.ly/AeOqn9

     

    Page 11 is the locomotives budget. Notice the order of the four categories on the left. My guess is that the order is not random--IMHO the "Alternative power locomotives" may well be the 2nd largest $ amt. they expect to spend this year, of the four--or at least the 2nd in mgmt importance. Combined with the DRich and D-inv numbers discussed above, and the pic of the 999, and, well, this is getting really cool.

     

    Does anyone know what other things might be under the "Alternative power locomotives" category, and what their $ amt. might be?
    24 Jan 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    Interesting note: when I tried searching for "alternate power locomotive" on Google, I found this concentrator on the second page!
    24 Jan 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    Since Google limits the first page to paying advertisers...

     

    That's pretty good.

     

    Considering that SA has NO structured support for search engines for their instablogs (vs their articles, which of course are front and center)...

     

    It shows the amazing number of readers and hits this insta gets.
    25 Jan 2012, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    The PowerCube testing with Viridity and PJM was the biggest break for me. How else can you test massive power IN and power OUT over a period of time and actually make money doing it. That was huge and you know NS was there monitoring things,

     

    You don't get very many shots at things like this. Its usually one shot and if memory serves, Enersys was the second shot at LA/AGM battery as a storage medium. The PbC just might make the third time a charm.

     

    Now that we know the dog will hunt, will the cost be in a range that can grow profits? Lithium is coming down in price for the same reasons my damn solar stock is so cheap - oversupply. Our little carbon plate may be the saving grace for the likes of JCI and Excide should it gain market acceptance at a good price point.

     

    Let the games begin...

     

    PS How green is lithium really? can it be recycled?
    24 Jan 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tim: Here's a few tidbits from notes I took during my two trips to New Castle.

     

    --The ancillary costs of a lithium battery is more than the cost of the battery itself (this is in regard to cars using lithium batteries)

     

    --99.2% of the PbC is recyclable. TG stated that a PbC gets a 32 cents/pound return on recylcing. Lithium batteries cost 52 cents per pound to dispose of...there is no cost benefit to recylcing a lithium battery

     

    --TG joked, calling lithium battery operated cars, "car-b-ques." The Chevy Volt since has already proved his joke to be true
    24 Jan 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I will also add that tow truck drivers will have to be trained on how to tow a lithium battery operated car, if it's been in an accident. I've also read that tow truck drivers "may" refuse to tow any car heavily damaged that may have the lith battery damaged as well.
    24 Jan 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    Can you imagine a cracked lithium battery in a crashed car in the rain? I wouldn't pick it up either (lithium and water don't like each other).
    24 Jan 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    Yet, the Lithium is seen as the magic bean to our energy storage needs. I believe it has a place in our future but so does the marriage between lead and carbon. I believe the PbC is our NOW solution if we want to save on limited resources and help the planet.

     

    I still wonder what (XIDE) and (JCI) might have up their sleeve. The only public information they have shared has been their associate with Axion and/or PbC...
    24 Jan 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed -- note that the LiCoO2 or LiFePO4 electrodes (and any other oxides) are not reactive with water the way pure lithium is. Lithium is very reactive -- and that's why lithium-ion batteries have such high energy density -- but the oxides used have very different properties from pure lithium.

     

    Similarly, even though pure sodium reacts violently in water, sodium chloride (table salt) does not explode in water.

     

    The problem with Li-ion batteries "exploding" is that shorts often cause runaway thermal reactions which results in vaporized electrolyte (often a flammable solvent like ether) being sprayed out the battery -- usually out the safety vent that's there to prevent the pressure from building until the metal walls of the cell fail (at what would be a much higher and more dangerous pressure).

     

    Water won't put out individual cells that are burning, but it is recommended for Li-ion battery fires as it will cool surrounding cells and limit the number of cells that end up exploding.

     

    In the end, all the electronics required to make Li-ion batteries safe (to some reasonable standard -- we do use them all the time... just not in cars) is one of the reasons they're so expensive. That also helps PbC batteries be cost-effective even as they have around 1/6 the energy density of Li-ion (roughly 150 Wh/kg for Li-ion vs. 25 for lead-acid).
    24 Jan 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the chemistry lesson (no sarcasm intended). That is valuable information. As a truck driver I have hauled many loads of chemicals with all the attendant warnings. The worst were magnesium and paint thinner for scare factor.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed> I was a missile fire control crewman in the army (60's) in a magnesium trailer full of electronics and radar screens. We all knew we would have very little time to get out of the trailer if a fire started.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    One more thing, and I might be sorry for bringing it up, but there have been several comments about the difference between $.40 and $.50 purchase not meaning much when the prices hits in the $2-3 range. I disagree as that looks like 20% more shares at $.40 than $.50 to me.

     

    My advice is if you like the stock, buy it as cheap as you can. The cheaper you get the stock, the sooner you can start taking some risk off. As for me, I am done buying (I think) and am several multiples away from taking risk off. I am having a hard time with the idea of giving up any of my shares…
    24 Jan 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The shares I bought for 28 cents will have risen 1000% when AXPW gets to $2.80 (not even close to Axion's all time high).

     

    The shares I bought for $1.20 will be up 233%.

     

    That's the power of multiples.

     

    The great thing is that huge multiples still exist, as I believe someday Axion will be selling for $6.00, which is more than a 1000% gain from today's close.

     

    A 2000% gain is not out of the wishful thinking process.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Off the top-o-head, that would be 150M shares @ revenue of $.50 per share and a standard market multiple of 12 times earnings. Dare I say Axion should do better than that. Growth is what the street pays up for and I hope it grows with a higher PE than that. I know it's not a tech stock but if Chipolte can do it ... well, I just have big dreams.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    :-) Some 10X gains would make one heck of a good contribution to the grandkids college education fund(s).
    24 Jan 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DRich: The growth dynamics using simple PE analysis is nothing short of mind boggling.

     

    Chipolte, VMware, Red Hat, Teck Resources...this kind of stuff has happened in multiple sectors with multiple stocks since 2008.

     

    I scratch my short and curlies when I own a gold stock called NovaGold, that I fully expect to be up 1000% by 2016, from my entry price of $3.94.

     

    Fully confident that by then, Axion will blow right by that increase.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Easy now. Don't make me call them Dream Police! Dream Police!
    24 Jan 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    Don't trust the champagne. Its been spiked.
    25 Jan 2012, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    ":-) Some 10X gains would make one heck of a good contribution to the grandkids college education fund(s)."

     

    Each grandson is the proud owner of 5000 shares @ .50...
    25 Jan 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4889) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all the comments and links to the NS conference call. The budget for 2012 was my top priority for today.

     

    IMO, alternative power is their second highest priority this year, only behind new locomotive purchases. I think they have budgeted accordingly.

     

    Not sure when an announcement come, but it should be soon. My guess is days to weeks.(before Mar.1)
    24 Jan 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    LT, I'm of similar mind on the timing of any announcement. But, the NS capital budget and slide show picture of the NS999 strikes me as just about as close to an announcement as it gets short of the PR with explicit enumeration of battery/locomotive numbers, dollar amounts and time table(s).

     

    Could be wrong, of course, but I look for some significant upward price action the rest of this week and later with or without explicit press releases. I see a fair probability of my portfolio will heavily weighted toward AXPW by mid-February without any further share purchases. Me thinks one or more of those purchase orders TG has said he is holding were issued by NS.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Post of the day.

     

    That NS slide is one of the watershed moments in recent Axion history, IMHO. JP could do an article on that alone. If it goes underappreciated, then the risk/reward relationship just got a whole lot better this evening. The people looking for dry powder opportunities may just have found the motherlode.
    24 Jan 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I definitely recognize that ten cents at this level is huge. For my part I only meant that trying to trade in and out for a couple of pennies is great if you can be that good, (I'm looking at you HTL) but for those of us way less gifted, holding tight, *if* it works, should still work out plenty good... ;)
    24 Jan 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    86, I agree and I envy those who are that good (HTL)...
    24 Jan 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 1/24/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended, including after-hours, at 599,791, 118,597, and 10,100 respectively,giving total volume for the day of 728,478. Buy:sell ended at 5.06:1 and buy:(sell+unknown) at 4.66:1.

     

    As I suggested, short sales were a doozy, totaling very near the last two days combined while FINRA-reported total volume was 137K more that the last two day's total volume.

     

    Of course, that leaves the percentage not as impressive as the prior two days.

     

    0118 Vol 473580, Sht 028000 05.91% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    0119 Vol 575695, Sht 215158 37.37% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    0120 Vol 341334, Sht 244934 71.76% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    0123 Vol 199038, Sht 126503 63.56% LHC 0.4752 0.5050 0.4950 b:s 9.42:1
    0124 Vol 677878, Sht 352177 51.95% LHC 0.4810 0.5900 0.5400 b:s 9.42:1

     

    Before I detail today's notable things, I want to express one concern. The "buys" through the close was 549,181. The short sales represented 64% of that volume. The question arises, especially considering the predominately small trade sizes and big price run up, as to whether the short sales are backed by sales orders coming in from brokers' customers who can't resist taking profit (and meaning that the short sales will be mostly covered by shares which will flow in over the next few days) or if this is the market-maker(s) scrambling to stay even by doubling up on shorts to position for an anticipated re-trace.

     

    Consider: suppose the maker was short 50K at $0.45 or so and price starts running up out of his control. Following the strategy posted in my link to the market-maker strategies, the market maker will be increasing their short position in a geometric progression to try and have an at least near neutral position when a move down comes.

     

    So, price moves to $0.50, maker shorts 100K at that price, 300K at $0.55, 600K at $0.60, etc. Let's stop at that $0.60 trade. The maker is now short 1,050,000 shares, $597,500, with an average short price of $0.569/share.

     

    As soon as buying pressure abates, small trades (and other tactics mentioned in the article) can be used to move the price down to a break-even point, possibly spooking longs into selling in the process. As soon as "spook" is accomplished and price drops to near or below that $0.569 price, the maker can drive price down by shorting very few additional shares and play the other side of the trade simultaneously, making covering buys at or below the break-even price.

     

    All of us long-longs will be moaning in angst as we see another cycle of disappointment presented to us and wondering why it happened.

     

    I *believe*, if SA ever tells me how I can post my charts in an instablog, we'll be able to see occurrences of this in the past and see the current situation being reflected in the charts looking quite similar to things from the past. I'm thinking of March-April of last year, when we exceeded $1 and then plummeted.

     

    Notice in the narrative below when the 99.5K trade at $0.561 after price had been as high as $0.59 and dropped on very small trades and volume to as low as $0.55 again.

     

    I don't *know*, but ...

     

    On to things I noticed today ...

     

    From the get-go this morning's buying (hitting the ask) far outweighed selling and unknown, showing 133,150, 29,647 and zero respectively, for a total of 162,797 shares traded by 11:49. The buy sell then was 4.49:1.

     

    There were only 45 trades with the largest size shown at 11K. During this time, price low was $0.481 (9:59) and moved as high as $0.52 by 11:44. Price just kept "melting up", again on small trades, through 15:10, hitting $0.555 then. At 15:11 came the largest trade of the day, to that time, 20K at $0.56 (the 78th trade of the day). This could be a cross trade as the bid/ask was $0.54/$0.555 at the time and it is in the window provided by NASDAQ for such trades.

     

    Price continued it's march upward, on mostly smaller trades, hitting $0.5899-$0.59 from 15:44 and holding there for 4 minutes.

     

    Then at 15:49 price weakened and dropped to $0.55 on a few (10 totaling only 29.5K shares) small trades at 15:50:59.

     

    Somebody struck at 15:51:04 with a 99.5K trade at $0.561 when bid/ask was $0.55/$0.57. Weakening price continued, dropping immediately to $0.5301 in that same minute, hit a small $0.55 trade and closed at $0.54.

     

    After close there were three "form t" trades, two totaling 10.6K at $0.58 and one 40K at $0.59. These were likely cross trades begun earlier that closed at this time.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    The MM machinations provide investors with some excellent buying opportunities. I hope they keep up the bad work!
    24 Jan 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: Just noticed that although my text was correct, my little table had an error in the buy:sell. Here's the corrected version.

     

    0124 Vol 677878, Sht 352177 51.95% LHC 0.4810 0.5900 0.5400 b:s 5.06:1

     

    Apologies.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I am not tooting my own horn just yet, but the orchestra is warming up. I suggested Feb 8th as a breakout date for AXPW. This I calculated from the absence of available stock, the NS CC, the need for financing, and the absence of bad news. Not a scientific data series but a reasonable guess.
    I see no reason for the increase in buying interest at a higher price than lack of supply and the NS CC.
    My Axion prayer. Please God give Axion just 10% of the locomotive rebuild money for the next NS annual year.
    24 Jan 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Interesting discussion on the rare-earths...

     

    http://bit.ly/wEMtdN

     

    Opening question referred to Toyota saying they've developed a hybrid battery that doesn't use rare earths.... thoughts anyone?

     

    Interesting that the CEO side-stepped the point that these technologies could be ready in as little as 2 years. Hmmmm....
    24 Jan 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    OR > "Opening question referred to Toyota saying they've developed a hybrid battery that doesn't use rare earths.... thoughts anyone?"

     

    :-) My reaction to the video was that "a talking head" read from a news print article written by a reporter who was tasked with producing something for an editor. Of course, that reaction is predicated on my assumption that I know a little more about the issue(s) than newsprint reporter and the talking head. :-) I could be delusional and rare earths may in fact be used in some battery chemistries, but I have the notion that scarcity of rare earths is a concern because of use of some in production of strong permanent magnets used in electric motors and generators (think wind turbines as well as other types of generators) and use of others in a very wide array of color displays and other electronic device components.

     

    The Toyota research effort I read about suggested the company was focusing on devising rare earth-free electric motors and alternators for use in their hybrid autos. They are also working on development of rare earth recycling tech. Both efforts were undertaken shortly after China embargoed rare earth shipments to Japan due to political frictions.
    25 Jan 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    Lanthanum is used in NiMH batteries. It's the M. One of the reasons hybrid makers are moving away from that technology, I assume. And the expense of Nickel, of course.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info, SHB. May explain why the 2012 Toyota plug-in hybrid models have li-ion battery packs.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Axion wins another legal action.

     

    Try this mouthful:

     

    On the 20th, the US Court of Appeals issued a final rejection of the Taylor Group's two motions for a new hearing, after their loss in that court of an appeal against the the US 9th Circuit Bankruptcy Appellate Panel's decision to refuse the Taylor Group's appeal of a loss of five separate Taylor Group motions-to-reconsider 9th Circuit Judge Gregg Zive's Summary Judgement decision against them, forbidding them to further press claims in Canada that they in fact substantially own the PbC technology.

     

    Or try this one: Supreme Court? Hell yah! (Sure.)

     

    Tom Granville has to put up with a lot. I hope this is one less, but then again, I hope for World Peace.

     

    kt
    24 Jan 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2705) | Send Message
     
    I've always wondered why people don't talk much about the Taylor's legal charade. I view their desperate attempts to get back "in the game" as confirmation that this will be a 100M-1B company someday in the first half of this decade.

     

    The road has been long but after the upcoming placement; it seems we'll be in the final stretch toward commercial sales. Heck maybe even NS orders come in this quarter.
    25 Jan 2012, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    The biggest reason to not discuss the Taylor charade is that it's been little more than circus for three or four years and the simple act of discussing circus gives it more credibility than it merits. They were an immense thorn in my side from 2004 through 2007 but everything since then has just been side-show.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    Well, SA revealed their secret.

     

    (Spaces inserted so SA won't hide it)

     

    http :// seekingalpha. com / account / authorboard / drafts

     

    My humble submission to try and learn how to battle the insidious forces arrayed against us can be found here.

     

    http://bit.ly/xd6eI6

     

    For those with an interest, eyeballs, brains and comments welcomed, in that order! ;-)) No substitutions allowed from our menu.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    Thanks a lot for sharing your accumulated data and analysis!
    24 Jan 2012, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    You just gave me a scary flashback of the first day in my college Calculus course....Might add my last day as well..Never understood why an Accountant needed it anyway!!!
    24 Jan 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... Accountants don't need to do Matrix Integrations? Shocking.
    24 Jan 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRich......But then i was happy as an accountant if i was within a few zeros of my books being balanced...So i headed to sales, and opened my own company..lasted 20 years until a guy decided to run a red light !!

     

    HOW THINGS CHANGE IN AN EYE BLINK !!!
    24 Jan 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I don't have your expertise with working with charts, but I wonder if doing a 10 day average of the shorts would correlate with the 10 day share average as the 10 day volume and 10 day share price seem to be somewhat correlated, this is from a rookies perspective at a first glance.
    Stilldazed
    25 Jan 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed,

     

    It certainly could, but it also might not as the market maker might be fortunate enough to not be heavily shorting during a strong *sustained* run up. That presumes he's either only shoring sufficient to match expected incoming shares from sell orders received or was fortunate enough to have a large short position at an already high(er?) price. In both cases the need for additional shorting should be minimal.

     

    In this case, the correlation could break down.

     

    We mustn't forget that most of the shorting is in response to valid sell orders, as will be most of all the MM actions - respond to valid buy and sell orders received.

     

    We can get tangled up thinking that he's 100% squeezed when most of the time this is *not* the case.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    Once again my experience is that market makers are almost never significantly long or short OTCBB stocks.
    25 Jan 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    MM's make their money on the spread plain and simple. They don't care if the stock goes up or down and they don't try to position their portfolio based on what they think might happen tomorrow. Any MM that tries this would be out of business in very short order, not because it is illegal but because they would lose their shirt.

     

    I think continuing to try and determine what MM's may or may not be doing is futile. They are there to make the market work by buying and selling for brokers based on the bid/ask spreads, and they don't hold portfolio's with long or short positions other than the one or two cents that makes up the spread.

     

    I am confused about all this speculation on the MM's. They facilitate the market to work by buying and selling based on you and your brokers bid or sell price.
    25 Jan 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Holy masticating herbivore HTL! That meal's gonna require some serious digestion! But many thanks...
    24 Jan 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    NEW ARTICLE – BATTERIES INTERNATIONAL MAGAZINE

     

    The Winter 2012 issue of Batteries International Magazine was just published and in addition to my regular opinion piece, there's a nice two-page article on the PowerCube project. At my request the publisher prepared a five-page excerpt with both articles for the Axionistas. You can download a copy here:

     

    http://bit.ly/A5VcX6
    25 Jan 2012, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You've been busy. Excellent work, John. Truly excellent.

     

    (EIN needs a new Energy Storage category)
    25 Jan 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    The short article on the PowerCube installation came about when the editor read my first draft because he hadn't heard about the opportunity. It looks like a longer and more detailed report will probably show up in the next quarterly issue.
    25 Jan 2012, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    Fine work, John, very strong! I also like the little puffer fish...
    25 Jan 2012, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    The battery international article was excellent in its easy but thorough description of the PowerCube. Every time I read about the application I get shivers thinking of the hundreds of thousands of potential customers awaiting this money saving battery system.

     

    Thanks for promoting this product with" battery international"
    25 Jan 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Really nice articles. Thanks.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Wondering where the supply and demand curve hits on the price for Frequency Regulation. If there were a large number of PowerCubes bidding (suppliers) in a region, one would assume the price would go down.

     

    One of the references talked about how very fast response mitigates the problem and makes it easier to keep the Grid "in balance" and thus in a sense reduces the demand for the service.

     

    So IF that were to happen, then the main argument has to come back to time shifting of purchasing Grid Power at the cheapest times, or easy integration of things like on-site Solar Arrays.

     

    Am I missing something?
    25 Jan 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    John ... it is okay to publicize your link more broadly, or was your "deal" with Batteries International just for readers of this board?
    25 Jan 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    It won't be a problem if you want to publicize the link more broadly. After all, BI views this as a PR item on their behalf.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    It wasn't really a matter of promoting anything. I've written a quarterly column for BI for a couple years ago and my trip to Istanbul in 2010 was as a press representative for BI. When I submitted my first draft for the Winter edition the editor flashed on the story and decided he wanted to run it to ground. Aside from making them aware of the story, I had nothing to do with the Granville interviews or content.
    25 Jan 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff. And we're getting better. In the first article, response time is quoted as 50 ms, not the 250 we know(?) to be true. :-))

     

    I liked your article as a fair warning to both the industry and investors about inflated expectations and how to effectively combat the inflation.

     

    Another great piece of work John!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hard: You are correct. The response time is 250 milliseconds.
    25 Jan 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that we're looking at two different metrics. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that the PowerCube can respond to a signal in 50 milliseconds, but by the time you add Viridity as an intermediary the time lag gets greater.
    25 Jan 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    Nice article John! received my personal copy from Axion today...
    25 Jan 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    The photo of NS 999 from the NS CC today is from Oct 1, 2009. I was trying to compare the photo from the CC today to other historical photos of 999 to see if I could recognize any recent physical changes to the locomotive. Good idea, but wrong results. See it here: http://bit.ly/wSDbAr

     

    Axion either has the business coming or we never will at this point. Tomorrow might be a real run up! No confusion about the words "alternative power locomotives", Axion's history with NS, TG's comments and the photo of NS 999 in the 2012 Cap X budget.
    25 Jan 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2705) | Send Message
     
    Bang, why such a binary conclusion for the near term. Even if the NS deal comes in next quarter (or beyond) I think "never" is too strong. Not to mention potential PowerCube sales and BMW sales also.

     

    "Axion either has the business coming or we never will at this point. "
    25 Jan 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    I was referring to NS regarding they either have the business by now or they don't. They've investigated all the battery technologies available. They have a budget for "alternative power locomotives." Most of the testing has been completed except for putting the locomotives on the road or in the switch yards. Somebody's batteries will have to go in them.

     

    There is a chance they may be referring to GE's battery locomotives (molten salt I think) or another battery technology. I presume they have settled on the PbC by now - but it is unconfirmed. Hence my comment which was limited to NS.
    25 Jan 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4889) | Send Message
     
    Where there is solar, there is need for batteries.

     

    India wants 10x more solar in next 10 years. "Solar cheaper than diesel" in India.

     

    http://bloom.bg/xaN0Bv
    25 Jan 2012, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4889) | Send Message
     
    Green tax credits proposal sends Vestas up overnight...and with Solar reaching grid parity....don't forget about BYD's new battery complex in China as large as 3 football fields. 2015 could be the magic year for battery demand for the grid too.

     

    http://bloom.bg/zFR1p1
    http://bloom.bg/y3rtf3
    25 Jan 2012, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    It will be an interesting day to watch the stock. Resistance levels could be broken if there are new buyers wanting into this very tight market.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    It is difficult not connecting the dots as anything other than good news for Axion from the NS "alternative power" locomotive capx slide with the photo of NS 999 yesterday, coupled with the earlier technical NS Powerpoint slide late last year highlighting the PbC's performance and TG's expectation of a NS order in Q1 2012.

     

    I can't wait for the market to open. My elderly mother who I care for woke me up at 6.15 needing a couple of Tylenols and I just went ahead and got a cup of coffee and got up. Just to excited to sleep regardless of what the market does today to the PPS.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    A comment on the picture of the 999 in the NS quarterly earnings deck. I went back to some other presentations to see where else 999 pictures were included. Not in the Q3 earnings report but yes for the Summer Investors Day presentation and of course the fall presentation BW referenced.

     

    So, while I would interpret that its inclusion is probably a sign that the Axion relationship hasn't "run off the rails" (sorry for the pun) I wouldn't go so far to take it as a sign that an order is imminent.
    25 Jan 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    :-) apm, you may be on solid ground there. However, I don't think those earlier presentations that included the NS999 pictures were accompanied by a capital budget presentation specifically noting budgeting for alternative power locomotives.

     

    I am of the opinion that if there is anything holding back a purchase order it is EPA related. That is as much a political risk as an environmental one.
    25 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    Resistance is futile...
    A favorite star trek quote:)
    25 Jan 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    What we need to do is look at NS 2011 Capital Budget. Anyone got a quick link from the past?
    25 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... 2012 ($242M-page 43) capex for locomotives is $30M more than 2011 ($212M-page 45)

     

    http://bit.ly/wylKMd

     

    http://bit.ly/z7G9lN

     

    Would be nice to get all, or most, of that difference.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    I'd settle for half, or even a third in a pinch.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    :-) Here ya go, BW. No real breakdown, but different in tone from the 2012 capital budget. It may be significant that $212 million total spending programmed on locomotives matches the $212 million noted on the NS999 picture included in the 2012 capital budget slide presentation. On the other hand, the phrase "alternative power programmes" used in the 2011 capital budget summary is more general than the "alternative power locomotives" wording used in the 2012 capital budget presentation.

     

    It is also interesting to note the difference in new locomotive purchases programmed in the two budgets. 2011 budget called for 50 new locomotives while 2012 budget called for 35 new locomotives.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7ye...
    "USA: Norfolk Southern is planning capital investment of $2·2bn in 2011. 'Baseline' investment of $1·74bn is up 19% on last year, and includes $300m for track and terminal expansion.

     

    Resumption of its coal wagon replacement programme will see the purchase of 1500 vehicles, a level which is expected to continue for several years, while $212m will be spent on the acquisition of 50 locomotives, alternative power programmes and installation of emissions kits. The company will spend $334m purchasing leased grain and intermodal wagons. "
    25 Jan 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3367) | Send Message
     
    Any one of those amounts would mean that a very credible someone is putting out real money for the product, for a very real, real-world application. That would constitute definitive provenance and validation of the battery. In that instant, any potentially valid arguments of the naysayers, those nattering noobs of gnostication, would all go "poof"...
    25 Jan 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    10 NS999-type switcher locomotives would take 10,800 batteries. Given a PbC electrode production capacity sufficient to turn out ~330 batteries per day, a ten locomotive build purchase order would take about 33 work days to fill.

     

    Priced at $250 per PbC, 10,800 batteries returns $2.7 million in revenue. Priced at $300 per PbC, those batteries would produce revenue of $3.2 million.

     

    A 15 electric switcher locomotive build would take about 50 days battery production and generate revenues of $4 million ($250 price) - $4.8 million ($300 price). 10% - 15% of the increase in locomotive budget could do wonders for Axion's outlook.
    25 Jan 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    Not sure on pricing but the 35 for 2012 new loco's are supposed to be:
    25 ES44AC and 10 SD70ACe
    But in 2011 they ended up buying more of SD70ACe's so they have so flexibility.
    25 Jan 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: The reason why I ran into the new Exide battery I posted below, I was trying to find confirmation of Exide building a new plant in Ohio. It's odd, because in WDD's excellent link below, it reads that Exide could be losing 450 jobs at their Tennessee plant (page 21 in the PDF).

     

    I also learned that Exide is having serious EPA issues at their Frisco City plant, with 135 jobs at stake.

     

    http://bit.ly/xeZRnZ

     

    Do you recall reading anywhere if Axion is building a new plant in Ohio? You know where I'm going with this...that Exide could help Axion build more batteries in a partnership for Norfolk.

     

    I have always felt that the grant Exide withheld from Axion would end up coming in return for Exide partnering with Axion to build PbCs.

     

    Given the TWO potential plant closings, suddenly Axion may have Exide by the you know what.

     

    ####

     

    A lot of battery making people may soon be moving north.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that detail, mrh. We might be able to put some ball park prices on those models and develop a rough idea of total cost of planned new locomotives.

     

    It seems to me that with a $30 million increase in locomotive capital budget and a 15 count reduction in purchases of new locomotives, there is reason to believe planned capital outlays on alternative power locomotives, rebuilds, and emission reduction kits are substantial. Could be NS is facing a EPA mandated calendar for reduction of emissions to some threshold. If so, each electric switcher (1,080 batteries per) and each Over-the-road/long haul prototype (1,600 - 1,800 batteries) could eliminate need for one "emissions kit" as well as save on fuel.

     

    :-) So, one question is whether EPA mandates are slowing/hindering PbC sales or accelerating/augmenting them.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... The Exide plant in Frisco, Tx is in danger of being closed down. I keep hearing it's the fault of the "evil" EPA and that is, like many horror stories about the EPA, not really true. It is true that the area around the plant violates air standards but that can be corrected. No ... like so many battles here in Texas between good conservative, business friendly folks and business, this is about the land. The city of Frisco has grown and the homes have built right up to the facility. Not just lowly middle-class housing but the McMansion type development. Developers think it can become commercial but the real goal is a golf course ... or so I've been told.

     

    Here is some local color but doesn't really address the underlying reason the city won't budge just the PR argument.

     

    http://dallasne.ws/xY0QR3

     

    http://cbsloc.al/yKCdU2

     

    http://cbsloc.al/x6Quf0
    25 Jan 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I just stumbled across your query re-Axion building a plant (it was never flagged as new as far as I know).

     

    I don't think Axion needs Exide to supply any potential order for PbC batteries NS might place in the near term. By my calculations, Axion has more than adequate capacity in house for PbC electrode and AGM battery assembly to satisfy any order NS might place with them in the near term..

     

    My understanding is that Axion on completing re-build of some equipment in its own battery manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania and expansion of its battery assembly area, Axion had stopped further capital spending and was conserving remaining cash (tossing nickles like they were manhole covers). I don't think Axion planned any further capital spending until placing orders for new Gen3 PbC electrode assembly lines.

     

    I was aware of Exide problems with the EPA in Frisco City and its decision to close its Bristol, TN/VA flooded LA battery plant. And, frankly, I have thought it probable Axion's flooded lead acid assembly contract last year could be related to Exide difficulties elsewhere AND demands from Axion for some kind of compensation for Exide's use of Axion PbC technology to obtain federal grant money.

     

    Exide's public "justification" for closing its TN/VA flooded LA battery plant was inability to justify investment in needed facility upgrade to continue producing products with small and declining profit margins to supply a shrinking market. IIRC, Exide's new Ohio battery plant is designed for AGM batteries and they might be expecting to purchase PbC electrodes from Axion for use in that plant.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: Your last paragraph was what I was looking for. But I enjoyed what you wrote before that. Especially the implied thinking that Axion isn't going to raise money until there's maybe even insane amounts of orders in-hand. TG has to be licking his chops that the $26,000 Navy order, the only recent PbC purchase order we know of, has already far more than doubled his, ours, market cap.

     

    I've repeatedly heard TG talk about how Axion can ship their cathodes all over the world, China, Europe...Ohio.

     

    If we someday find that Exide is building a plant somewhere in Ohio just across the PA stateline, like Canton, OH, then its almost...shake my hands in the air, almost too obvious to ignore.

     

    I need verification. I don't like rumors. I guess both of us know it's out there.

     

    Thank you for replying.

     

    This is really fun to consider.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    AUTO (who Fidelity has used recently) has a 55K Block for sale at .60

     

    Could be a bit of a challenge to push through that.
    25 Jan 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone watch the State of the Union last night? Obama mentioned the DoD (specifically the Navy!) is going to make the biggest investment in alternative energy in US history. Obama highlighted batteries as one of the fundamental technologies driving the investment.
    25 Jan 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I'm surprised AONE didn't get a bump from the SOTU.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    I didn't watch but I'd be surprised if Obama wasn't heavily favoring lithium ion based upon all the DOE grants to lithium ion companies.

     

    Axion is going to have to make it in the real world where only being the best technology at the best price for the application will cut it.

     

    Thankfully, there are several applications that will have very large markets in which the PbC should be very competitive.

     

    D
    25 Jan 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    Obama's mention of DoD and alternatives was not lost on me!

     

    This article:
    http://bit.ly/ycjAZo
    says
    "the lack of good power storage has held back many technologies for decades. A power storage system that could be sized to fit into a residential home and capable of storing a few kilowatts would enable a nationwide roof-top solar power system without new transmission lines."

     

    Is PbC an affordable game changer?
    25 Jan 2012, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D Lane: Absolutely. Almost 9000 comments in six months in these Concentrators most certainly should suggest to any newbie that Axion holds disruptive technology that's very competitive, as well as the endless applications Axion's PbC battery can do.

     

    Welcome to the Axion Concentrators.
    25 Jan 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Very much liking the price action today. Hopefully, we can close two days in a row above my 55 cent break even price.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    So now two bottles of champagne. Don't you get one for everyday you close above break even? At least that is my understanding.
    25 Jan 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've become refined! No ripping corks until we have five days in a row above 55 cents. Looking like day two is "bankable."
    25 Jan 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Articula,
    Taken from summary of State of Union address.
    "I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here,"

     

    -Hope he's not referring to just lithium-ion

     

    Keeping with his administration's strategy to do what it can without Congress, Obama directed his administration to allow development of enough clean energy on public lands to power three million homes. He also announced plans by the US Navy to purchase enough renewable energy capacity to power 250,000 homes a year (equivalent to about 1GW).

     

    The stars appear to be aligning for Axion, now just have to get the warp drive up and running.
    25 Jan 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (656) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to Gerard Waters for his most comments category win for his axion post on Stock Gumshoe.

     

    http://bit.ly/A9jqLo
    25 Jan 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's great! I second Gerald congrats!
    25 Jan 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Thank you gentlemen. You will note that the win was for the most comments. Perhaps I should share the silver dollar those of you who commented. I am very proud of the team Axion United.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    The 200 MA seems to be difficult barrier.
    25 Jan 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    PbC doesn't need grants or subsidies to make it. The amount of money Axion needs grow is not in the billions or hundreds of millions. Government is a funder of last resort. Do any of us really want to invest in a company whose existence is based on the direction of a political wind?
    25 Jan 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4889) | Send Message
     
    bangwhiz....you had it right when you said yesterday or early this morning

     

    "Axion either has the business coming or we never will at this point".

     

    I am curious tho, about the difference in the budgets of 2011 vs. 2012.

     

    Doesn't look like we break .60 yet
    25 Jan 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30055) | Send Message
     
    Today we closed above the 200-day SMA, EMA and VWMA. The 10-, 20- and 50-day averages have already turned up. It's not quite a golden cross yet, but the fat lady is humming.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5975) | Send Message
     
    LOL John! The fat lady is humming indeed!
    25 Jan 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gotta love it when your favorite beer monger texts to say he bought 2000 shares on Monday, and that his broker also bought some shares. "So far, pretty good," he added.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    All i know is that i've ONLY owned this stock for a few weeks and i am up almost 20%....The day will come when we break thru 60 cents soon. I can feel the frustration of those who have held it a long time though..Hopefully we will all look back at 60 cents being a distant memory one day soon.

     

    As a newbie i see this as a positive sign. I just see so many comments on people guessing what a picture means....Just try to put yourselves in my shoes and be happy we are moving NORTH..

     

    I am saying this as encouragement to all. Believe me i am the least patient person probably out of all of us. I just think it is better to just look at whatever facts we can come up with and leave the guessing to others..

     

    Learned this from owning race horses and once the yearling hit the track for training GUESSING how fast he or she would be became futile. It is what it is !!! Hope i calmed a few nerves

     

    map
    25 Jan 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2705) | Send Message
     
    MAP, 60 cent is only relevant since its a trigger on a technical level. Most here are looking for 60-600% upside from that .60 level. Also many are in this thing near $1 and still look at it as a great entry. Congrats on your .50 purchase.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    :-) Appreciate the prudence counsel, but the capital budget pic applied a very soothing, medicinal balm to these nerves frayed by memories of share purchases North of $1.50. The balm was broth from leaves in the bottom of my tea cup.

     

    Today, I deployed most of the "dry powder" I was holding in reserve. Thinking about replenishing the powder supply by recognizing some of the 50% implicit gain in my MXWL position as implied by today's closing price.
    25 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka

     

    I understand the trigger as i actually asked up above what they were since i am not a technical type. I also know that many bought this at a higher price and have it a long time. I was just trying to bring it down a notch because i KNOW you all are hoping for 3 to 5 bucks one day as well.

     

    Honestly, i have to thank you folks as it was all the back postings i read plus knowing Maya from another Quick Chat that helped me to decide to buy this in the first place.

     

    You cannot believe what a newbie thinks..I will tell you...The conviction, passion, bleeds off the page from all of you. It was almost a no brainer buying it. Knowing full well NO ONE actually knows if this is really going to pan out.

     

    But the knowledge, the battery geeks made it so easy to say . I am going to take a chance. JP taking the time to explain things that one can go back and read was really important. I am now a firm believer that if this does not work out it wasn't because the product was inferior. It will be for another reason we may never know. Political maybe??

     

    Thank you all, i am just trying to help out the best i can and right now all i can add is to try and calm down the excitement somewhat. Please do not take it the wrong way, i am happy watching the number rise and i expect some pullbacks as well.

     

    MAP
    25 Jan 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    MAP> We are all trying to do due diligence by picking up every scrap of info we can find. Without our collective efforts what would a shareholder like me who is averaged at $1.00 do when the stock plunges to .25 cents? The collective effort is a priceless asset here.

     

    I also manage a investment in Axion for another individual who was averaged at .73 cents on 10K shares. Without our collective knowledge who would have bought another 5K shares for that person at .37 and .32, which is exactly what I did. Those shares have had a nice pop and that individual is a penny or so from break even.

     

    It is also a relentless quest for truth, justice and the American Way! :<D
    25 Jan 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Greetings All!

     

    After reading the excerpted articles from Batteries International that John arranged for us to access (thank you John), I hopped over to their website and downloaded the “sample issue”. Presently, the sample is the Fall 2011 issue, with a special cover story section on energy storage and the grid (pp. 46-71). Wow, something for everyone. This turned into an unintended time-sink that I couldn’t really afford this morning, yet I couldn’t stop reading. I’m actually pleased at how much of the information made sense, in large part because of the education I’ve been gaining through John’s articles and Maya’s Concentrators. If I didn’t choke on the subscription price, the magazine could actually make me smart. The whole thing is interesting, but I call the attention of Axionistas to the following:

     

    pp. 45-47 on “How the Grid Works”;

     

    pp. 50-51 with tantalizing information on community energy storage (think PowerCube);

     

    p. 56 on “Axion Moves Into Grid Storage”, with a quote from TG stating that, “…the company is in talks with interested parties in Norway, Canada, and Mexico.”

     

    p. 124 with a tip of the hat to JP, “The Kitten Torturer” (who should be an absolute guru to traders looking for short ideas).

     

    There’s also really interesting articles on battery chemistries, GM’s battery testing lab, and GM’s abuse testing process, which can offer some indirect insights into BMW’s likely process as well. Do note that the issue predates the Veridity and Navy announcements. There is a lot of focus and a little bit of rah-rah on Li-ion, but there is also a great quote from one Erik Spek (Chief Engineer, TUV-SUD Canada) on Li-ion and storage: “In storage, it would be like using a Corvette to transport a load of bricks.”

     

    The URL references “sample” rather than an issue number or date, so the sample issue offered likely changes (perhaps quarterly?); if you are interested but don’t have time to read it now, I suggest that you simply download the PDF for later consumption. I’ll post the direct URL below, but if I’ve missed a step it may get stripped.

     

    http://bit.ly/zjl3gh
    25 Jan 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17789) | Send Message
     
    Thanks WDD! Off to download now!

     

    Great work.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WDD: Thanks hugely for the link. I'm not finished, yet. But I'm drinking in knowledge like I hope I'll be slugging back some champagne after three more trading sessions.

     

    Thanks again for your efforts!
    25 Jan 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Check your email box, folks. Axion just sent out more stuff about their relationship with Viridity Energy.

     

    The link within the email for the full story did not work, though.
    25 Jan 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    I sent an email to two mail boxes at investor relations and Axion telling them about the bad link.
    25 Jan 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4115) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, it appears that the link provided is to a paywalled site (the quarterly issue JP brought to out attention earlier.

     

    http://bit.ly/A5VcX6 is the address for the freebe extract JP arranged.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for solving that issue, D-Inv.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Norfolk Southern 2011 Capital Budget presentation from the conference call:

     

    "Thank you, Jim. As Wick mentioned, we are planning for a significant capital program in 2011. Slide two depicts our baseline 2011 capital program, which is budgeted to be $1.7 billion. This is 19% more than the total for 2010. And as Jim noted, includes investments both to maintain the safety and quality of our existing franchise and to support business growth in 2011 and beyond. Also included in this year's capital spending, is $334 million to purchase freight cars that have historically been leased, as well as $146 million for positive train control. Including upgrades to systems and track structure that will be accelerated to support PTC implementation.

     

    I will talk more about each of these later. But their inclusion will raise total plan 2011 capital expenditures to $2.2 billion. As in prior years, the bulk of our baseline spending is targeted towards strengthening the franchise. At 83%, replacement and core spending as a percent of the total is slightly higher than in prior years, which is largely due to the resumption of our coal car replacement program. The growth portion of the budget, shown in red and totaling just under $300 million, is for track and terminal expansions and for projects to improve asset utilization, workforce productivity and fuel efficiency.

     

    As might be expected, the largest percentage of our baseline spending is allocated to keeping our right-of-way in the condition needed to move our customers' business safely and efficiently. Roadway spending in 2011 is budgeted to be $763 million, or 44% of the baseline budget. Our roadway budget funds the replacement of rail, ties and ballast, as well as the improvement or replacement of bridges and culverts. On slide seven, investments in facilities and terminals throughout our network will total
    $244 million, or 14% of our planned baseline capital expenditures.

     

    About half of the spending in this category is associated with investments in Intermodal facilities, including three new Crescent Corridor terminals in Tennessee, Alabama and Pennsylvania, each of which also has a public funding component. In the industrial products area we are building bulk terminals to support new business opportunities. And finally, we're continuing our ongoing program to update our locomotive facilities. As shown on slide nine, locomotive spending will total $212 million, or 12% of the baseline budget. This includes the planned acquisition of 50 new locomotives as well as continued investment in alternative power programs. The category also includes funds to rebuild existing locomotives and for the installation of emissions kits in order to meet government requirements. Baseline freight car acquisitions and improvements will total $155 million, or 9% of capital expenditures this year. Most of which is due to the planned purchase of 1,500 coal cars."

     

    Note excerpt: "This includes the planned acquisition of 50 new locomotives as well as continued investment in alternative power programs."
    25 Jan 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exide debuts new Extreme 1000 battery and new case and cover today:

     

    http://bit.ly/ymrfa9
    25 Jan 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    They really just don't want to sell the PbC do they? Perhaps Axion doesn't have enough production capacity yet, or maybe they just don't want it unless Axion gives it to them. I hope someone else like East Penn can make PbC's and put a hurt on XIDE somewhere in their product line. I don't wish them well.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: See my comment to D-inv about 30 comments up from here. Exide has two plants in deep doo doo.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    appears its most unique aspect is its tougher battery case.
    26 Jan 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9833) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Note from the desk clerk: I'm hoping that the e-letter from Axion gets fixed, so that I can use it for the next Concentrator heading. Hence the delay in firing up a new one.
    25 Jan 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
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    Author’s reply » "Choo chooing" right into the next Concentrator:

     

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