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Mayascribe
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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from HTL:

     

    (AXPW): at 13:37, buy:sell was 1:1.76. Not bad considering only 49 trades then and (what I think is) short-term consolidation going on.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please remember to thumbs up this Concentrator, which can be found directly above the first comment. Thanks!

     

    HTL: I didn't have to bother you this time around! Thanks for your past help!
    30 Jan 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    Shoot Maya - almost all new skills only get easy with repeated use. For me, you, almost everyone. And most of the time we all learn from each other - I didn't do anything exceptional.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BS, you are a Godsend. Now come help me hook up my new wireless printer!
    30 Jan 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    Uh, you don't "hook up" a wireless anything! ;-)) That's your problem right there!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How true. Haven't even unsealed the box, yet. And when I do, it'll be the wires that make the printer "wireless" about which I will likely be uluating profane remarks.
    30 Jan 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, here's a task I'm not looking forward to, HTL. When my remodeling phase one is complete, in this 3 bedroom clusterhome, I will have five active computers, 6 TVs, two puter monitors, and three multi-purpose printers, hopefully a killer surround sound system, all of which I want to be Internet capable, and be able to "talk" to one another. Then there will be eight phones (already are, but I will be updating them as well).

     

    Shessh! What have I gotten myself into? This is way over my head. Especially, because I know wireless TV is coming, where no set top boxes will be required.

     

    Verizon, Comcast and Motorola and lots of other carrriers and equipment makers are going to lose huge revenue streams in the next two to three years...about when I hope to add an Axion Power residential UPS backup system, which I'll then have to learn what to do to optimize a ROI.

     

    I'm being forced to become a geek!
    30 Jan 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Wireless TV? Hell, my grandparents had TV over newfangled radio waves back in the '40s!
    30 Jan 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    "I'm being forced to become a geek!"

     

    Maya, I've got news... you are a geek or at least very geekish!
    30 Jan 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    "I didn't do anything exceptional."

     

    That's funny! everything you do is exceptional. Look it up, you fit the definition quite well...
    30 Jan 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » After perusing through John's fantastic work, I noticed a few Concentraror comment tallies didn't include additional later comments.

     

    Certainly this is also occurring with Concentrator 48, which has become the Concentrator for Superbowl smackdown friendly banter.

     

    Thanks to all "Supe-smackers" for keeping the NFL conversation off of the latest Concentrators.

     

    The bottom line is that there looks to be several hundred comments more than John's excellent graph and spreadsheet show.

     

    That's a good thing!
    30 Jan 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    FYI, I'm pretty religious about going back and adjusting the totals as new comments are added to things like Concentrator 48. So while the numbers are never perfect, they're not off by anything approaching a hundred or more comments.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    There is a time and place for everything. Sometimes that banter opens people up as well...Now lets hope this new hire is as good as the article makes him out to be...

     

    Looking for the day of a competition between companies NEEDING our little baby!!!!

     

    My small talk has generated a few new owners of Axion. They did their own DD and liked what they saw..Thats a good sign.
    30 Jan 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    MaP
    I too added 2 new Axion shareholders yesterday. They did not do any DD, just trusted me (or just got so tired of hearing about AXPW).
    One of them is my son.
    31 Jan 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Add me to the number of people hoping price goes down to the mid 50's. Either that or consolidation in the 70's as suggested by Maya.
    30 Jan 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    BW: I took a quick look at *some* of the charts in my side insta. It's not consistent and I've still not exhaustively analyzed it, but it seems one of the common patterns is when daily short sales comes off a peak and drops into the normal-to-low range, pps followed down. This was after pps had led the dss (Daily Short Sales) up.

     

    There were exceptions and I only checked a few. And didn't look at all factors - so this may be useless. But I've got to start somewhere as time allows.

     

    I had *guessed* yesterday that DSS would end above 40%, based on how nicely buy:sell improved during the day, but apparently shares entered the MM portfolio from prior sell orders and it dropped instead.

     

    So, if few examples I looked at on my charts are indicative, you might get closer to your price.

     

    0118 Vol 473580, Sht 028000 05.91% LHC 0.4201 0.49 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    0119 Vol 575695, Sht 215158 37.37% LHC 0.4201 0.49 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    0120 Vol 341334, Sht 244934 71.76% LHC 0.4201 0.49 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    0123 Vol 199038, Sht 126503 63.56% LHC 0.4752 0.505 0.4950 b:s 9.42:1
    0124 Vol 677878, Sht 352177 51.95% LHC 0.4810 0.59 0.5400 b:s 5.06:1
    0125 Vol 330462, Sht 195966 59.30% LHC 0.55 0.5999 0.5850 b:s 3.20:1
    0126 Vol 303847, Sht 164697 54.20% LHC 0.5700 0.64 0.6400 b:s 2.54:1
    0130 Vol 298501, Sht 097424 32.64% LHC 0.5800 0.629 0.6220 b:s 1:1.10

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Today will be a good opportunity to validate your impressions. Sideways to down would be close enough for openers.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Got an email from Mario Bottero at Rosewater in a PR release about meeting Vani Dantam at Axion. See photo with caption (I hope) here: http://bit.ly/xURldQ

     

    The caption didn't appear with the photo. Vani in in the midddle, Joseph Piccirilli to Vani's right, Mario Bottero to Vani's left, Powercube behind all three. Snow in New Castle.
    30 Jan 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Bang, a close up of the picture is in the "News" section of RoseWater's web site.

     

    http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
    30 Jan 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    "There is always a second chance to buy a stock at your desired price. The only problem is that most likely you don't have the patience..." Although I keep repeating this quote of a investment master to myself, today I can't help but averaged up. I am just afraid that I am still holding my cash when the inflection point suddenly materialize out of nowhere...
    30 Jan 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    I would also like to buy more on a dip... but I think a lot of us Axionistas have the same idea. It may never come (for that reason!).

     

    I also second JP's vision of a "relief rally" following resolution of a financing deal. It's one uncertainty weighing on the stock and I think there are many that would happily buy in (or add on big) and hunker down for 2+ years to see the PbC through win or lose were it resolved.

     

    ...so, while I also have some $$ I'd like to get in lower, I'm not sure it'll come.
    31 Jan 2012, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    I've heard many respected advisors advocate buying rising stocks.

     

    Their theory is why buy when a down trend is working to reduce the worth of what you buy. They say buy when the trend is increasing the worth of what you buy.

     

    I don't know if they then trade out near a top or what.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2954) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps NS's capex budget will change:

     

    http://bloom.bg/wggNo1

     

    Would be nice if it freed up more $ to spend on PbC.
    30 Jan 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • matthewchic
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Hey concentrators - can someone explain what this means exactly? Why is Axpw listed as a Nasdaq threshold security when they trade on the otcbb?

     

    http://bit.ly/xMPk8N
    31 Jan 2012, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    The OTC market apparently runs on NASDAQ facilities.

     

    And the requirement for listing is here.

     

    http://bit.ly/wCcwzj

     

    This can be related directly to the fails to deliver listing I posted recently.

     

    You can also got to the OTC and find the days it has been on the list by going to the short report. Just below the short report is the days in which it's on the list.

     

    http://bit.ly/wN1uvi

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Matthewchic,
    Yes, I would also like to know how this affects shareholders? Is this cause for concern? I have already read HTL's speculation on why the fails to deliver are taking place. But it seems that it is viewed negatively.
    31 Jan 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    JLL: Generally, you are correct - it is a big negative. For major stocks on major exchanges that have been highly liquid for a long time a sustained presence on the flagged list is negative as it suggests that something other than delays due to exceptional processing needs is going on.

     

    Back before the SEC clamped down on naked shorting, it was a big problem. "Phantom shares" from the excessive naked shorting were flooding the market for any stock perceived as weak.

     

    Since the clamp down, the problem is much reduced.

     

    The perception doesn't allow for the sort of thing JP has highlighted regarding stocks held in certificate form. With the excellent source JP is, we have good explanation for (I'm pretty sure) most of what we are seeing. My only concern is that either the conversion is taking a really long time or there are more folks holding certificates selling than we were aware of. And I guess we could have a market-maker trapped in a bad position too.

     

    If the latter situation exists, we should see the quantity flagged begin to reduce over time *if* it's not being masked by unexpected certificate holders selling.

     

    JP: do you have any feeling for how long the certificate conversion through to clearing fails should take? I've been thinking that 30 days is more than adequate.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    I'm convinced that the fails to deliver listing is solely attributable to the number of transactions involving paper certificates. If my theory about the FINRA daily short sale data is accurate, then there were 2.8 million shares of slow deliveries in December and a whopping 4.9 million shares of slow deliveries in January.

     

    The threshold list kicks in whenever the "fails" balance exceeds 425,000 shares (1/2 of 1% of 85 million). So even a few days of processing delay with the conversion volumes we've seen would do the trick.

     

    The last time this happened was in March and April of 2011 when trading volume spiked.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    thanks for your replies.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    From 3/4/11-5/20/11, when the spike in F2D seemed to occur, the average cumulative fails for the period was 238,214. There was a brief follow-on occurrence:

     

    06/09/11 335741
    06/10/11 291136
    06/13/11 931800
    06/14/11 1130109
    06/15/11 1140109
    06/16/11 1094884

     

    12/8-12/30/11 (latest available) average is 822,048. So there's certainly a different environment influencing the results. What is it? I have no rational guess.

     

    It'll be interesting to see what the report that's supposed to be available tonight shows.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Weekly Resistance levels

     

    I like using the weekly charts for resistance and support levels on small stocks.

     

    There was a very weak R/S line at $44 that we blew through on the way up. The next real suppot level supported with volume is $.57. The next true resistance level is $1.25.

     

    Obviously one determined large buyer or seller can affect a small stock like this. An announcement can affect a stock like this.

     

    But anyone interested had better get their minds made up as to where they wish to enter and exit. Except for fastening your seat belt, the normal rules of flying do not apply to a ride on a rocket ship.
    31 Jan 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Unusual: another pre-market: 2.5K @ $0.58.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. 63.5K at the open @ $0.58 traded.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Over 100,000 shares in the first few minutes traded already.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    3 blocks of 20K or more already: one each at .58, .59, and .60
    31 Jan 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Someone decided to have a sale, and there were many happy shoppers. Clean up in aisle 6, there was a small spill in the diaper section.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    It's all you bottom feeders putting in GTC orders a couple pennies under the bid. When the target gets juicy enough a determined seller just can't avoid the temptation to swoop down and make the big sale even if he thinks he can get a higher price if he's patient.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    JP, and whose fault is that?

     

    I recall a very wise man writing: ""most of my readers will simply sit on the sidelines, monitor developments and eventually make a decision based on corporate accomplishments.

     

    Those who do the work and make a decision prior to an identifiable corporate accomplishment are bottom feeders of the highest order who are content to put out a low bid and wait for the price to come to them. They'll never chase a price."
    :-))
    31 Jan 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    I see absolutely no fault at all in this dynamic. In fact I'm thrilled to see the bottom feeders in action because I figure a willing seller at this price doesn't deserve a penny more than he's willing to accept. My only hope is that we have a small number of bottom feeding traders who'd be willing to flip out for a dime.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    I know, John, I was just jerking your chain. Reading all of the balanced integrity in your articles for so many months helped make me a long-term AXPW holder. Although I always try for the "best price" given my individual risk tolerance and the current market dynamics..
    31 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2954) | Send Message
     
    Cat-fish fever, da da daaaa

     

    says:

     

    concur.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    "It's all you bottom feeders putting in GTC orders a couple pennies under the bid."

     

    Guilty as charged. My top GTC order of 10k hit t $.58 during the fire sale this morning.

     

    DRich said to be brave and go for the ask. Good advice but my luck usually works in reverse so if I put in a GTC instead the stock is sure to take off (which is fine with me). The launch was aborted today but I have couple more GTC's set and ready to go for tomorrow...
    31 Jan 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if a good strategy is to try and anticipate the capital raise going off at 15% discount to whatever the share price du jour might be and putting in a GTC order at the discounted price until the capital raise hits? As daily price changes, adjust GTC order price when necessary. Just a random thought. Opinions?
    31 Jan 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    bangwhiz, I think that's a creative thought. The challenge clearly is at what % -- since there is a distinct possibility that when the capital raise goes off -- buying demand will exceed new supply and price may not drop. The % is also likely to be influenced by what category of price aggressiveness one falls into: a) AXPW position already mostly filled --OR-- b) still building up position size.
    IMO -- these are all healthy thoughts to chew on.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mercy. I like 10% for two reasons. One, I'm averaged at $.60 and still building a position. 10% is .54 and if the stock declined to the mid-50's again I will be a buyer. So I'll fade the discount slightly and put in a GTC buy at .55. There could be a slight dip on the raise or none at all as you suggest. 10% should catch any brief dip and fit my position building strategy pretty well. Then I think I'll put in another larger GTC order at .48 if the capital raise pushes it down that far. Wash, rinse and repeat as the share price changes significantly.

     

    Edit: Done - who knows if it will work to my advantage? Also a buyer at .66 on a run if it happens.
    31 Jan 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Bang, to my still primitive mind the price could very well rise on the capital raise. It all depends on the revealed terms. I think right now there is an 'expectation' of how positive or negative (on balance) the deal will be. If the deal comes in with terms whose overall effects are judged to be much more positive than negative, thus beating the prevailing expectation, then it could prompt a lot of sideline watchers to jump in. And if it's associated or coincident with a nice sales order that effect could be huge imho. Now, obviously conversely, if the deal is seen to stink, and there's no sales order to go with, and it's just kicking the can again with nothing in sight for a while but more waiting, well then I'm sure many folks will take what they can and bail. Which might be a *great* buying opportunity. All I can say is stay thirsty my friend. And stay loose... ;)
    31 Jan 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    I added a GTC buy with a trigger at plus 10% (.66 right now) which is when I would plan to add to my current position averaged at .60 anyway. So I am bracketing the stock up and down. Brackets may need some fine tuning but I'm experimenting with this as a buying strategy anyway. In general I like the strategy, but the numbers may need some adjustment.
    31 Jan 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I think it depends on how responsive you (and your electronics) can be. In a well connected world, entering price alerts (both above and below) into something that could for example send you a text message would be preferable. Aren't you at home where you could react quickly much of the time?

     

    Check out the Concentrator for our shared wisdom of the price move, and make your move.

     

    I hate giving Market Makers information if I can avoid it!
    31 Jan 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    I don't care about MM's. I either get the shares at the prices offered or not. The .66 is a trigger if there is an unexpected pop and the lowball offers pick up some at a decent price if there's an unexpected drop. If I am actively tracking the stock at my keyboard I can modify the offers quickly.
    31 Jan 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    It seems that a lot of people are still worrying about "dilution" or big discount for big buyer like what happened in 2009. However, as many here may recall, TG said a few months ago that he had quite a few big willing investors lining up at his door (his doorstep probably getting more crowded now due to the reasons we all know)... So when the capital raise really comes, there is high chance that the stock price will be bidden up instead of down, simply because of insufficient supply. To me, the battle at 0.60 is the final chance you can get to board the rocket before its lift-off.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Me thinks the pricing of the options for Vani could potentially be indicative of what any secondary pricing might be.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2287) | Send Message
     
    Possibly, if two real orders arrived before the deal happens.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    WTB> Thanks for the suggestion to use an alert. I left my bracket orders in place but set an SMS alert a couple pennies below the higher priced bracket order so I could be aware of the possibility of triggering the order.

     

    If I needed to I could change the trigger, go ahead and make a purchase, or cancel the order if desired for any reason. I like the concept of using high and low brackets, but I'm still getting a feel for set them up properly and how to use them best.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... Like I told you the only real risk with bracketing for a breakout/breakdown is the volatility of gapping out of a consolidation. Still it's not a bad way to play it.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    DR> I'm considering changing the trigger order to trigger if the price hits .66 that activates a limit order with a limit price of .69 or .70 if the .66 trigger is met. The objective to try to make sure the order is executed if the stock is running uo quickly by adding a few pennys to the trigger price. If it gaps up like a maniac then it just won't work. I'll set an alert up somewhere even higher to try and catch a major pop before it tops out.

     

    It could theoretically be a better strategy than using a market order if the trigger is met and the stock is ramping up quickly by leading the trigger price with a limit order set a few pennies above the trigger price. I assume this is possible with my broker (Optionshouse), but I intend to call them tomorrow and ask them about setting up a trigger order this way.

     

    I also concluded .55 is unlikely and I set up a GTC limit order at .57 to the downside as a routine position building buy and another at .48 in case a capital raise got some weird knee jerk reaction to the downside the day of the capital raise.

     

    Comments?
    1 Feb 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... Pick your prices carefully. NEVER ... EVER .. use a market order on penny stocks ... or any stock that doesn't have really good liquidity and no spread on bid/ask. Better to have it run away than be at the tender mercy of the Market Maker.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    Well gang, today is the day that Beacon Power (BCONQ) lives or dies. Has anyone heard anything in the way of 'Real' news?
    31 Jan 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2954) | Send Message
     
    I heard it spun out of control. 8^)

     

    Sorry, guys, feeling a lil goofy today.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Because they failed to hire the right spinmeister?

     

    Shoulda gone with al gore...
    31 Jan 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1074) | Send Message
     
    Actually, tomorrow (Feb 1) is the day bids are due. The auction is Feb 3, and the winning bid will be approved on Feb 7th.

     

    I've done a lot of work/reading on it. Reading between the lines BCON mgmt has a stalking horse bidder identified who they want to win which presumably will let them keep their jobs. There is no stalking horse bidder identifed at this time.

     

    Looking, at how their advisors are paid I'd expect a sale of $20-25M well below what they owe to the Feds. Some rumors out there that the Feds will then step in and bid full amount they are owed ($39-42M) to own the asset with the hope to sell it later when there is more pricing knowledge known on the FERC variable pricing.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >mrholty ... Like a "debtor in possession" type arrangement with DOE?
    31 Jan 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1074) | Send Message
     
    Potentially. I actually think that is unlikely but some believe it. If the Fed wanted to do some DIP lite they would have simply extended the loans back in the fall instead of taking the hardball stance they did.

     

    My guess is Siemens will be the winner. They've done a bunch of work in the lab for a more efficient flywheel (can't remember name starts with a k that is more efficient. But as we know its hard to go from a lab to mfg. They could see this as a way to jump a few steps in bringing a new, cheaper, more efficient flywheel to market. The $300M in NOL credits would be useful to them I assume.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 12:16:52 buy:sell very nice 3.57:1 on 50 trades with total volume of 303739.

     

    So far, lower high, flat low and volume is higher on a "down" day (looking at the high - it's still above the open, which was way below the close of yesterday).

     

    Highs dropping three consecutive days ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    WORCESTER, MA, Jan 30, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- World Energy Solutions, Inc. XWES -2.25% , a leading energy management services firm, today announced it will host a webinar, "Are You Ready for PJM's New DR Market?," on Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 2:00pm ET. This complimentary webinar will educate attendees about the impending changes to PJM's demand response market taking effect this year, which could result in many companies earning significantly less from their DR participation. We will also discuss what companies can do today to navigate this new market and to maximize their DR revenue potential.

     

    More: http://bit.ly/wklrUY
    31 Jan 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Interesting battle shaping up ..

     

    Bid 33.34K at .60 v. Offer 55K at .essentially 62
    31 Jan 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    NSC goes ex-Div tomorrow: http://bit.ly/xWAA0O
    31 Jan 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    New (not exciting) Facebook pic of NS 999

     

    http://bit.ly/AEJJ7D

     

    http://on.fb.me/z9v4Qa

     

    down a ways on http://on.fb.me/zL5FXS

     

    Comment/opinion from a contact there:

     

    "999 is meant for just yard service, so the only place you'll see it in use is Altoona. Altoona has the only charging station for it.

     

    There was talk of a road version of 999, but I think they've put it on the backburner until they can get 999 to work right.

     

    When they first tested 999 it only have 80% of its batteries installed and the engineers who ran it told me it outpulled a GP38-2. It's quite heavy for a four-axle unit (or at least it was before all the batteries were removed) at around 295,000 lbs.

     

    When in operation it had trouble charging and discharging each cell evenly as I understand it, so it's supposed to be getting improved batteries and an updated control system."
    31 Jan 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    Can you find out if it has the new batteries yet? If not when it is scheduled?

     

    If your source is right ... I guess we know why there has not been any order from NS...they had problems with the BMS if I understand that correctly.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I think he was referring to the original system that failed that prompted the "switch" to AXPW.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    To my ear, that was my impression as well... though it could be wishful thinking on my part.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    The first step in the relationship was when NS hired Axion to build a new BMS in June 2010. Since the completion of that work, there's been a double redundant testing program at Axion, NS and Penn State using the new BMS and data derived from unsuccessful testing with the original AGM batteries.

     

    It's funny in a way, but NS has spent more time testing the PbC than they spent building the 999 in the first place. This is a company that clearly doesn't want another public failure.

     

    You can't necessarily take silence from Axion as proof that there hasn't been an order. The 999 will need about $250,000 in batteries and the road locomotive will be closer to $500,000. Both of those numbers are small enough that disclosure would be optional under SEC rules, rather than mandatory. I can easily imagine a scenario where NS would place an order, but require Axion to keep its head down and its mouth shut until NS was ready to say something.

     

    I tried to arrange an interview with one of the top dogs at NS in the summer of 2011. They politely advised that they wouldn't be talking to the press until their battery electric locomotives were completed and on the rails.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1074) | Send Message
     
    My understanding is that the NS999 is still getting worked on. Basically here is the timeline since I have been tracking it.

     

    Sep 2011 - December 26 2011- Sitting on side of yard in Altoona.
    December 27-Jan16th in Juanita shops in altoona. Seen overnight on Jan 16th. Jan 17-Jan 29 - (last I heard) its still in the shops. My guess is on Jan 16th it moved from one part of maintenance to another. Once its out I expect it to start doing actual yard testing.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I'm curious as to what sort of "data" they derived from the failed testing.

     

    I could picture collecting data from a real yard switcher as to start and stops over some period, and some measure of power required for each event.

     

    I have no idea what data current or rebuilt locomotives collect either in the black boxes (assuming they have one) or available through some interface to the control system.

     

    http://bit.ly/xGEZHh
    31 Jan 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    With a prototype as radical as the NS 999, it's a pretty safe bet that they collected minute by minute traction power use and recuperative braking power generated. With a few weeks of real world data to work with, the subsequent testing protocols get a lot more precise.
    31 Jan 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Asked a couple of followup questions:

     

    Do you know if NS 999 has or is scheduled to have installed any type of regenerative/recuperative braking system?

     

    Already has it. It's activated when using the dynamic brake (very seldom used in yard service) and it also engages it automatically when using independant brake. Yard speed is 10 mph or less, so I really don't see it charging well that way, but I don't know.

     

    Any info on the charging station? Is it just a somewhat "generic" piece of equipment or do you think it was specially designed for the purpose?

     

    It's a little shanty in the yard next to one of the tracks. It's got a set of plugs, one for the traction batteries, and one for the accessory batteries. That's pretty much all I know about it.

     

    My Comments: "Would you like Fries with That?" Can we make it a Combo meal ... PowerCube with optional Solar Array as a multi-purpose charging station and Power Cost Shifting and Backup for all the power needs in the Yard and some nearby businesses to go with you Rebuilt Locomotive?
    31 Jan 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    Thanks & good work WTB....now just let us know when it gets new batteries and how it does at work.
    31 Jan 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): No trades after 12:22 until 14:39:38: 3K @ $0.601. Bid/ask has been $0.601/$0/6199 almost forever with no changes.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    The phrase Mexican standoff comes to mind with buyers, sellers and market makers each waiting for somebody else to make the first move.
    31 Jan 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    HTL:

     

    I have not had time to look at the trading, but do you consider this to be a situation where a market maker would use their shorting ability to keep their book in check, thereby increasing their short position in hopes of staving off any further run and then covering on a correction?
    31 Jan 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    Stefen: <*removes tin-foil hat*>

     

    I really have no way to know or even make a good guess. It's all too well hidden. All I have to make my guesses with are the articles, such as I linked earlier, and *clues*, garnered here and there as I try to learn the mechanics of all this, and thoughts trying to connect the dots.

     

    If we believe the article, we then have to determine if one or market-makers got caught badly out of position. We could surmise this was the case because the buying strength when the sell-off started certainly should have been unexpected. In that case the "averaging in" by the market-maker, described in the article, would seem a reasonable ploy.

     

    <*puts tin-foil hat back on*>

     

    It would seem silly, *if* a market-maker was in bad position, to *not* use small short-sales during periods of very low-volume to try and drive price lower. Market-makers don't want to lose money and I *assume* they actually want to make money.

     

    As with *every* professional trader, I do believe they *will* use every tool available that they can get away with. With Rip van SEC at the switch, they should have a lot of tools.

     

    At my most non-intellectual level, I absolutely do believe they will do what you suggest. At my intellectual level I try not to let it influence me too much as I could be *way* wrong.

     

    I'm hoping the data and charts I collect will eventually remove the need to guess quite as much.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    I also think it would seem silly for the MM not to use something that is plainly within their legal right to use (whether I agree with it or not is a different story) ... I too hope to see some understanding come out of the data and charts that a theoretical understanding cannot explain.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    And (it seems to me) that every day that passes, the cement of support here hardens...
    31 Jan 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    Might be the cap on the septic tank!

     

    HrdToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    Tight spread now...

     

    .615 bid 25000 .6179 ask 6000 volume 348100
    31 Jan 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    One unusual thing today though... On Schwab's level 2...

     

    WE usually have PINK & HDSN with bid and offers....HDSN rarely trades unless u get big moves as they are always way above & below.

     

    but...today the only bid / ask is PINK...no second MM
    31 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Quercus is down to about 2 million shares, no?
    31 Jan 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    The 10k @ 61.75 near the close was me. Looks to be too many people waiting for a pullback to the .50s..... may or may not happen....
    31 Jan 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    We are definitely in a different land now than last year. Last year there was basically a guaranteed amount of selling each day at almost any price. This year you get these hour plus-long standoffs at 60 cents.. Something has changed. Hmm, something, something economics... anyone, anyone? ;)
    31 Jan 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    A mystery of the universe?
    31 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Me thinks too many buyers willing to accumulate the dips... Tight spread during the day indicates an eager buyer for every seller.
    31 Jan 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I've been puzzling and puzzling, trying to figure out why all those Hoos in Whoville do what they do, but this is all I can surmise: That all them who were selling at thirty cents but don't sell now at sixty are either asleep, exhausted, or else have at long last sought the havens, and thus shall trouble our dreams no more...
    31 Jan 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    If you follow the rule of Occam's Razor you would conclude that there simply are very few shares available below .60 unless something unusual happens.
    31 Jan 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (764) | Send Message
     
    I bought 1100 at $0.6099 at about 2.30 with the rent money from my tenant. Its money I normally "invest" but could not find a better place to park it. Way over my usually portfolio allocation for highly speculative stocks but nothing I can find or have read about appears to hold such promise. My holdings plus 2 friends who do not comment are just above 300k, the vast portion of which have been accumulated since Christmas.
    31 Jan 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    We won't know for a couple of weeks, but I only seen unusual MM activity last week or whatever for a couple of days around the time HTL posted his thoughts & article on MM's & their tricks.

     

    For the most part, I think all of you are correct, no long term holder is interested in selling and buyers have to buy near the ask. Always some short term traders taking money off the table occasionally and I am sure Quercus is doing their usual 10% (but can't prove it) they are much more canny lately.

     

    With volume around 300,000 I think we are just in a normal market as with any stock. I seen the tightest spread today I have ever seen, just before that flurry at the close, bid was .6175 / .6179 ask. I think that is MM neutral.

     

    Probably going to have problems moving to the next level until another catalyst comes along. (sale, puchase order, financing) Even Apple traded this way last year before the iPhone 4s launch.
    31 Jan 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    There's likely a lot of supply around .60 cents but our Axionistas can eat threw it. I think above .65 is where the fireworks start. Who here is willing to average up?
    31 Jan 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >bazooooka ... I've got no problem doing that up to resistance around $.85. Call it a trading block.
    31 Jan 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    @ Bermuda: If you've accumulated since Christmas, then your CB is great.

     

    @ everyone: AXPW opened the month of January @ .291 and closed the month of January @ .6179

     

    That's a 2+ bagger, hopefully on its way to a 5 or 10 bagger!

     

    Here's me raising my glass to all of you Axionistas for a superb January and here's to a higher February!

     

    - Cheers
    31 Jan 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    Is that a 5- or 10- bagger from $.291 or $.6179? xD

     

    Cheers
    31 Jan 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    yes.
    31 Jan 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    The cross may not be classic gold, but it's at least bronze. My 10-day volume weighted moving average pierced up through the 200-day volume weighted moving average today. The 20- and 50-day averages have already turned up and the 100-day is flattening nicely. I hear humming.
    31 Jan 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6121) | Send Message
     
    Me too John! LOL
    31 Jan 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Here's the hot off the press fails to deliver numbers.

     

    01/03/12 2155862 0.27
    01/04/12 2522922 0.30
    01/05/12 3011290 0.32
    01/06/12 3013697 0.39
    01/09/12 1884468 0.41
    01/10/12 1825190 0.43
    01/11/12 0293871 0.46
    01/12/12 0400156 0.58
    01/13/12 0518833 0.51

     

    A few potential conclusions?

     

    First, folks that hold certificates have either stepped away from the market, based on the last three numbers at least for a while, or they have pre-converted some shares so that the sales don't result in flagging fails-to-deliver.

     

    The second potential conclusion might be a conversion time, but I'm just too worn out to review the numbers and try to draw conclusions.

     

    Anyway, assuming T+3 fails flags, it looks like around 12/31/11, at the *latest*, was the last sale requiring certificate conversion, jibing with all our speculation that Quercus and SS might be exhausted.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • gardenkeeper
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have thoughts on PPO's demise today? Does this have any relevance to AXPW? Thank you.
    31 Jan 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >gardenkeeper ... Another 10%+ down and it should be a screaming buy. LG is building for their internal demand. That still leaves the rest of the industry to be provided for by Polypore. With the water & gases filtration business (that is being ignored because of Li-on) this looks to me to be a good 5 year stock, but more DD is needed.
    31 Jan 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    That's pretty stunning! PPO $54.77 high today and close at $38.08 down 29.92%. Let's try to connect the dots here! From Financial News Network: "Polypore (NYSE:PPO) shares are declining sharply after one its customers, Korea's LG Chem, designated that it would enter the battery separator business. Polypore already has a battery separator business, and the company spent $100 million in July 2011 to expand its lithium-ion battery separator capacity for electric vehicles. In a note to investors, DA Davidson said that LG Chem's announcement could create a significant overhang on Polypor.

     

    The firm, however, did estimate that it would take a "significant" amount of time for LG Chem to develop a battery separator solution. Nevertheless the firm downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy and slashed its target on the shares to $45 from $73. In mid-afternoon trading, Polypore dropped $15.38, or 28.30%, to $38.96."

     

    $100M to expand its capacity for the electric vehicle market?? Guess they don't follow JP! They are in a good position for the AGM market and SS is on the horizon. Time to start following PPO for a bounce back. Looks like the market threw out the wash water, the baby and the wash basin too!
    31 Jan 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    It is interesting the sell off in PPO today was actually somewhat "orderly"..... Makes you wonder...
    1 Feb 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    There's a fascinating dynamic that the market's overlooking right now. Prior to the LG announcement, announced cell manufacturing capacity for 2015 was 2.5 million EV equivalents (20 kWh) but announced separator manufacturing capacity was only 0.5 million EV equivalents. http://bit.ly/x3vhbS Since nobody can make cells without separators, there has to be a lot of expansion in separator capacity and LG is merely filling a gap in the supply chain.

     

    The PPO stockholders heard news of a new competitor and ran for the exits when the more appropriate response would have been "Whew, now we won't have to grow quite as fast."

     

    Estimates of EV cell demand in 2015 are all over the place and I personally think many of the estimates are too high, but if you believe the cell demand will be there then an additional competitor shouldn't be much of a problem.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Blurb on cnbc was that from PPO's perspective, LG was going to go from being a large lucrative customer of theirs, to potentially a competitor, so a double whammy. To my mind though, a much deeper dive is required-- I don't think separators, and separator technologies, are commodity items. IE, it's not at all clear that LG's separators will be as good as PPO's, even for their own batteries.. WRT to all the other purchasers of separators, E.G. other Li-ion battery makers, perhaps more suppliers, and more supply coming onto the market will help them... as I think separators represent a non-trivial portion of their COGS. Just my musings. I know others, such as MRTFF will have much more direct knowledge and insight. But I tend to agree in thinking today's schwacking will likely turn out to be a gross overreaction, and thus a fortuitous opportunity....
    31 Jan 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    The shift today was the stockholders that believe the long term story is in danger. Short term nothing will change. But the growth is over. Especially if you believe the expansion to create more batteries for the electric car space is in danger.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    PPO making a $100M outlay with so few electric cars sold sounds like they are leading the market by half a mile! Were there even $100M in electric cars sold total in 2011? Doubt it.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Micro-hybrids to Grow to 39 Million Vehicles in 2017, Creating a $6.9 Billion Battery Market

     

    "AGM battery technology will grow nine-fold. Absorbed glass mat (AGM), lead-acid batteries will dominate the market for storage of micro-hybrids, growing at 46% annually to nearly $4 billion in 2017."

     

    http://bit.ly/x4tXNg
    31 Jan 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    One wonders what the facts are that would lead Lux to making the claim that AGM batteries will be the source of Micro hybrid technology.

     

    Does the author know that advanced lead acid is an AGM format LAB?
    Does the author know that there are two competing advanced LAB companies looking at this market?
    Is this anything other than a reporter getting half a story right and not caring about the part he never understood?

     

    You be the judge. If you judge correctly I would suggest you buy another 100,000 shares of AXPW.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2287) | Send Message
     
    This line caught my eye: "In mild hybrids, Li-ion will carve out a niche, growing from near-zero to nearly $570 million in 2017, capturing a 47% market share among plug-in vehicles. "

     

    Wow! a whole 570 million bucks? That's, that's TRIVIAL! It's almost funny. I wonder how much Li ion large format manufacturing capacity is coming on line just in 2012-13? Whatever it is, it's too much.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >siliconhillbilly ... Here's an estimate of the over capacity problem for Li-on

     

    [quote] Automakers have committed to producing up to 839,000 plug-in electric vehicles worldwide by 2013, up from just 124,000 to be delivered by the end of 2011. As a result, demand for lithium-ion batteries will reach 18GWh by 2013 from the current level of 2.4GWh - a sevenfold increase in just two years. In contrast, the supply capacity under construction by battery makers will reach 35GWh by 2013, enough to supply almost double the number of planned electric vehicles. [quote-Bloomberg New Energy Finance]

     

    http://bit.ly/oAxgdu
    31 Jan 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    Lus has always been pretty generous about sharing their reports with me as long as I don't redistribute them or use their graphics without permission. I've sent off a request for this latest report and should have a copy later today.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    My train is still running around my tree without the battery being changed. Just start and stop it and it seems to run forever !!!!

     

    What a dream...

     

    MAP
    31 Jan 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I think this short summary by MarketWatch confuses a few things. They somehow seem to conflate mild-hybrids with plug-in hybrids-- classifications I considered to be at distinctly opposite ends of the spectrum. Anyone else seeing this issue the same way? I'm sure the actual Lux report squares it all up, but safe to say, the primary point still obtains: The micro-hybrid, and therefore AGM, markets are both going to grow immensely in the next five years... and if the PbC truly is a perfect fit for that application, then it and Axion have a big future indeed.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2287) | Send Message
     
    481086: I agree, the MarketWatch summary most likely scrambled some of the terms. Maybe John can either publish or synopsize the critical points if he gets a copy.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    My deal with Lux and Bernstein Research is pretty simple. They give me copies of reports that cost their subscribers thousands of dollars a year and I write about their conclusions. While most of my readers can't afford to pay up for high end research, there are some very big money managers who follow my work and they're potential customers for the research houses. The bottom line is everybody benefits. Retail investors get summaries of some very high quality research and the research houses get the publicity of a strong voice talking about their product offerings.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Here we go: "Axion Power Announces Registered Direct Common Stock Offering of up to $10.0 million"
    http://bit.ly/wD400O
    1 Feb 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Looking for more knowledgeable others to speculate what this means for current shareholders and where share price is going from here. Will sales of the shares already have been sold to large investors, or will some of it be available to retail investors? Would just like to understand the mechanics of how this is done. Would the shares have a caveat for when they could be resold, as not to have a huge impact on current share price? Or does this only have marginal effect on share price?
    1 Feb 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Price per share: $0.35, 10% discount to market using the volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP).
    The Shares are being offered directly by Axion.
    1 Feb 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    I can't see it going up a lot today. Anyone wanting to place an order wants to know that that company will be around long enough to fulfill and support it. This gets around that problem, and provides the working capitol to do it.
    1 Feb 2012, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    I for one am not pleased.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    On other stocks in the past, I've read that pps suffers as the new issue price is treated as a floor *and* a management view of a current "fair price" for the stock. I don't know if this holds water, but pps in the market responded as if it were true.

     

    $0.35 from our current level seems much larger than what I would have expected.

     

    OTOH, it's only $10M. So less than it could've been. But does this mean that orders-in-hand are not sufficient to justify capital needed for a larger build-out of capacity?

     

    I don't see any restrictions on the sale of the stock mentioned in the PR.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Or potentially, only need this amount to rev things up.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    Speculation: From what we know about cash levels, they could have waited for the 40 day average to go up. They may have been encouraged by a major customer to raise the money now before orders are placed. There may be an announcement soon after the offering is complete. This is just speculation.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    I would have preferred a higher price, but there's a lot to be said for having the financing risk behind us and enough running room to let things develop before going back to the market for plant expansion captial.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, I was hoping the issuance of the options would give us some indication. Nevertheless, I am happy that financing is in hand. So, $10M at $0.35 is approximately 28M shares added to the shares outstanding? What does that bring us to fully diluted?
    1 Feb 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    By my calculation, the offering takes us to 114,944.711 shares outstanding with $14.2 million in working capital and $20.6 million in stockholders equity after giving effect to an estimated Q-4 loss of $2 million.

     

    The book value per share at September 30th was $0.15.

     

    The estimated book value per share after the offering and Q-4 losses will be $0.18.

     

    Proving once again that you can't dilute a beer by adding a shot of whiskey.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    And if I remember correctly, there are approximately 18M options/warrants outstanding ranging in price from .71 for the Quercus warrants to 1.50 for mgt's options? (these numbers are just best guesses from the prior concentraters - please correct me where I am wrong).
    1 Feb 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    They had to complete that this month (Feb.) to keep the "ongoing concern clause" out of the auditors report that JLP talked about.

     

    I am glad it is over, and they will have no problem raising cash at .35 but that is how the market works. What happens now is up to the battery, sales, and stock market.

     

    disclaimer...I will make my last purchase soon at .35 or better if the opportunity presents itself.

     

    P.S. we probably know why all the selling of late came about ..IMO
    1 Feb 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Why could they have not made an offer to existing shareholders, of a unit containing one share with one warrant for an additional share at $1 expiring 2-1-2014? I think they would have got a bettr price.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    You will get more replies, but the offer to existing shareholders would have been nice...but it was not guaranteed. This way I bet is was a lock to sell out fast.

     

    Many have been wanting to bottom fish at lower prices, TG just gave you the opportunity...you may not get but one more if that...so don't blow it.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    This is just my thoughts/my opinion on paper, so do your own DD..

     

    I can't imagine TG doing this without knowing where the money will come from. After all, $10 million is not all that much money. I expect large volume today, and if enough sells, or all of it sells then maybe the pps back to .40-.45 (sorta like AONE did, drop at first then recover)

     

    As to orders, it would be great IF they have some, but I do not expect anything big - but I keep my short term expectations in check. Remember the long term view is still intact.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    My last purchase was at .31. At that time AXPW was running out of working capital.

     

    Now they have $10M which, the way these guys pinch pennies, will last them until significant sales. And it's just a waiting game until significant sales - they will come.

     

    While the price of .35 is not ideal, Axion is now in a much better position and I have today become a buyer again.

     

    D
    1 Feb 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering if I won my $5 bets on the capital raise? I said .40, others said no it would be higher and it hit at .35. Going to be an interesting day in terms of pps. I've got plenty of powder, but I'm going to wait for the dust to settle before I make a move.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Very worrisome to me that management felt $0.35 was enough for the stock rather than taking a loan and waiting for a better price. Very interesting, and disappointing. Says volumes about management's lack of confidence in the future.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    I read the statement and TG expects the offering to be "closed by Feb.3"....what does that mean?

     

    HTL..do u have premarket bid/ask? Schwab still shows .60/.61...oops .57/.58 now. What's up ?
    1 Feb 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    Right now $0.545/$o.55 2x2.5K/2x2.5K

     

    Last trade $0.545

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    What does "being offered directly by Axion" mean, especially since there's a "co-placement agent?"
    1 Feb 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    wtb, I was wondering the same. Would love to know how that works.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    In a registered direct offering, a company sells shares to investors who purchase through a placement agent. Those investors then have the shares in their investment portfolios and make the same buy, sell or hold decisions as all other stockholders. The shares are not being sold into the market by Axion or the underwriters.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    So are you saying that Axion knows who their new investors are?

     

    I see pros and cons to that ...
    Pro: Picking Strong Hands
    Con: Possible appearance of "sweetheart" deals without true price discovery.

     

    Are you saying there are no restrictions on how soon they can sell?
    Does that mean that all these shares go into the "float?"

     

    How soon would we see filings if there are now new owners over certain thresholds (5%?) And the float determines some of those requirements, correct?
    1 Feb 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    John, thanks for your patient re-explanation of wonkish securities details!
    1 Feb 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    Axion most certainly knows who the new investors are. My bet is the entire deal went into the hands of fewer than 50 people. Particularly after the excessive selling pressure of the last couple years, I'm sure management did everything it could to keep flippers out of the deal.

     

    I don't think the buyers will be subject to any resale restrictions, which means the shares will be added to the float. If it was well placed, those shares won't see the light of day for a while.

     

    If any of the buyers bought more than 5% of the outstanding stock (±5.75 million shares) we should see Schedule 13D filings within a day or two. Were I a buyer who wanted to load up I'd stay below that level to avoid the filing requirements.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    Street investors frequently over-react to these kinds of transactions. They take a meat axe approach and think "there are 25% more shares outstanding so the value is 25% less" without considering that the offering added $10 million of liquidity to a company that's primarily concerned with staying on track as its principal customers finish their testing and evaluation work.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the clarification.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    At least there are no warrants.

     

    Wonder if the lack of warrants led to a lower price?
    1 Feb 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    Warrants can be used to push pricing up, but with the new accounting rules they can also have a devastating impact on future earnings. If you have to sell something at a bargain price, straight common stock is the only way to go.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Appears management wanted to do just that. Very bad sign.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I know about tin-foil hats, what kind do we put on to rationalize what's happened?

     

    Long time to wait for the Conference Call ...
    1 Feb 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    1) I agree that the source of capital is already known.
    2) I am surprised the capital announcement came before a marketing/sales announcement, but it could be that:
    a) the capital for additional manufacturing capability was required by one of Axion's customers prior to the customer making an announcement; or,
    b) a customer is part of the capital source (less likely)
    3) 28M new shares/85M old shares = 33% “dilution” (hate to use the term). 28M new shares/113M total shares = 25% of total shares. That’s 25% not 26% - obviously intentional.
    4) Waiting to see short-term effect
    1 Feb 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    There's always a tension in financing transactions because recent volatility scares the heck out of new investors who always worry whether the price will fall off a cliff once they write a check. When a stock has doubled in the last 30 days, the tension is increased. If it runs to a triple or a quadruple, investors will frequently back away and say "get back to me when your price stabilizes."

     

    The hawk in me would have preferred a higher price. Thirty-two years in my line of work reminds me of Rule ONE: Take the money.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5323) | Send Message
     
    Schwab shows 6000 shr. traded already at .51

     

    bid now .545 ask .55

     

    I can't figure out what is going on?

     

    update...now 11,000 traded....last trade .545
    1 Feb 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I think you just saw a bunch of GTC orders fire ... waiting ...
    1 Feb 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    09:35 374.3K traded current pps $0.45/$0.46

     

    I feel my trading blocks coming back and some more core ... in a few days.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    NEW CASTLE, Pa., Feb. 1 , 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW) ("Axion" or "the Company"), the developer of advanced lead­carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to sell an aggregate of not more than 28,571,429 shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the "Shares"), at a price per share of $0.35 for gross proceeds up to $10 million, before deducting placement agents' fees and estimated offering expenses. The share price for this transaction was pre-determined by calculating a 10% discount to market using the Company's volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP).
    1 Feb 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13572) | Send Message
     
    Adding today, just not sure "when" or "how much".

     

    Update: Added a few shares at $.43.

     

    Lurking a lot cheaper...
    1 Feb 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Got some at .43 (and quite a bit went off there) but I see low of the day is .38 ... congrats to those of you that got that, and to those of you that had dry powder.

     

    Vol 965K 28 minutes into trading
    1 Feb 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I'm also going to add, today more than likely, I just put more money in my brokerage account. A gift from the gods for those looking to average down.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Looks like management has a lot less confidence in their company than we have on this blog. Worrisome. I am sure JP will say $0.35 for a stock with a book value in the teens is in fact not dilutive. But the market value, pre-announcement, was over $0.60. Tells me management could not get anywhere near market for the stock in a large sale. A bridge loan (five years or less term) would have been far preferable to this terrible price. I will be re-thinking my investment. Looks like management and large investrors think the stock was over priced at 60 cents.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Rick, that's just nonsense. Nobody thought the company was over valued. It was a negotiation and with what is in hand, that was the best they could do. Plain and simple. Sales will be the key and always has been the key. Without sales this company doesn't go, with sales, this is a steal. Good luck though with the investment, I know you've been here with us suffering for quite a while.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your good wishes. Yes, I have been with this stock for four years. And I am disgusted that management would feel issuing stock at 35 cents is preferable to a loan given the market potential I think the product has. A loan does not dilute earnings per share, given rising earnings. But it makes me think that management has less confidence than I do, which is concerning since they should know more about it than I do. I wish you well on your investment also. But I am angry at this move by management, which I feel is just stupid. I am not in the battery business, but I handle tens of millions of dollars in loans and equity placements yearly. I know how to make and handle money. This move was either dumb, or evidence of a poor outlook for the product.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    "It's the best they could do" ...

     

    remember how TG talked about lots of financing options?

     

    Perhaps there were a lot of "bad" options?

     

    Given that this doesn't officially close till Friday 2/3, I guess we won't be seeing any contracts before next week ... if then. Maybe some small PR items ... even that would help I think.

     

    If we don't see something soon, I'm not sure we'll hold this .44 area, and it's a while to the conference call where we might ask the right questions and get an answer that would excite people.

     

    Anyone got an estimate of how long before we have to raise again without some real sales?
    1 Feb 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2247) | Send Message
     
    Rick, FWIW -- I don't think your point of view is nonsense at all. It is just as valid as the other end of the spectrum with happy talk. I never chase a stock -- up or down -- and that is why I am OK with 2 current blocs of AXPW (at this moment in time one has a gain and one is underwater.) Like others, I will wait until I see some settling down before adding -- which I fully intend to do -- and I am OK if it is not at the "best and lowest" price.

     

    A lot can happen while this issuance fills out -- and short term traders are happy to dump for a penny or two gain. From my end I will be slow to add (perhaps in increments) since the "up and down action" will likely not end today.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... Let me see if I've got this right. Your in favor of taking on debt, at a 3-5% premium, to handle current operations & expenses ... without knowing the order or cash flow will be there to make the payments? Debt is for capital investment that will pay its way makes sense but that is when you've got the P.O. in negotiation or hand. I suggest you sell out. Running a company (or a country) on the credit card makes no good sense.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    DRich - "without knowing the order or cash flow will be there" is kind of my point. If there are orders in hand or management expects significant orders in the near future, then a loan is far better than issuing stock. If managment sees an uncertain outlook or is desperate, then issuing stock may make sense. I was not aware the outlook was so uncertain or desperate And by the way, nearly every real estate transaction in the U.S. and the world for that matter, uses debt as part of the capital structure. Almost nothing would get built without it. Banks would not exist without it. Also, business schools (yes I have a masters, and a double major in business and economics, and 30 years experience running multiple successful businesses) will tell you that there is a place and time for debt and a place and time for equity. Knowing when to use each is part of good management. I have been in this stock for four years, have about 150,000 shares and I have the right to say if I think management is screwing up, or, alternately, the actions of management suggest an outlook far less confident than what their words have been saying.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... The company has existing in-house (paid for) capacity that needs to be utilized before expansion is required. It is most likely that capacity will handle any P.O.'s that any on this group has anticipated in 2012. The need for money is on the human side of the business expansion and operational expenses so I don't see it prudent to jeopardize the physical plant & real estate just to keep the stock price down. That should the last line of defense.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I respect your take on the situation. And I can agree with you, completely, if management feels a loan could jeapordize the company's future. I am just very surprised that the situation is such that management feels a loan is risky at this point in time. I was perhaps deluding myself with thinking the situation had improved beyond that point.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    I have never seen a small company thrive by using debt when it needed equity. I have lost several million dollars in small companies that borrowed money they didn't have the free cash flow to repay. After watching the pattern for over thirty years it's become a cardinal rule for me -

     

    A SMALL COMPANY THAT USES DEBT WHEN THEY NEED EQUITY IS TOO STUPID TO HAVE ME AS A STOCKHOLDER.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rick: You'll run into my commentary on the bridge loan issue in the next Concentrator. In short, now was not the time to play that card.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4133) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I concur on the displeasure with management and the very low issue price, but disagree with the bridge loan idea. Characterization of the pricing as predetermined by 40 days weighted average price strikes me as a fig leave cover story for a prearranged sweetheart deal subject to some manipulation. The only reasons to proceed with the transaction at this time are 1) the company is out of money and needs cash, 2) the February 1 announcement date was predetermined and designed to bias the offer price down by including end-year 2011 tax loss selling, or 3) linkage of some kind of contract to some sort of minimum liquid capital requirement. Neither explanation 1) nor 2) makes management look good.while 3) could be justified if a substantial battery/electrode contract signing is announced shortly after closing the financing.

     

    If Axion had sufficient cash on hand to carry the company through June as claimed by Management last August, there was no necessity to proceed with a financing at this time. Cash in hand by the first week in March would have vitiated need for a "continuing concern" warning in the quarterly/annual report.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18305) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: "there was no necessity to proceed with a financing at this time."

     

    Except for, as pointed out previously by others, the desire to avoid "going concern" statements on the audited reports.

     

    That alone *might* be sufficient reason.

     

    The rest of the thoughts require my tin-foil hat and, I believe, some history upon which to base such suspicions.

     

    I don't recall any history that might support those suspicions for this particular company. I've seen those sort of speculations on every capital raise that surprised and disappointed shareholders on the small-caps I've been involved with.

     

    It's rational to be suspicious, but one, IMO, needs a rational basis for them as well.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    I hate being blindsided like this but I guess there's no other way. Fasten your seat belts!
    1 Feb 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    No Prospectus yet on sec.gov :-(

     

    http://1.usa.gov/AjGMtt

     

    Or does the existing shelf registration somehow suffice?
    1 Feb 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Having been in real estate forever, I know that leverage, when things go south, is a recipe for disaster. Conversely, if you expect things to improve, leverage makes you rich. Management could have taken a loan, waited for sales to develop and the share price to improve, and made much more, per share, than will be made per share by selling stock at these low sales prices. I think this is a mistake, plain and simple. It hurts shareholders, if indeed the market outlook is good. Or else the product and market is much less promising than we on this blog have been thinking. If management thinks the market is still very tentative and risky, then maybe they were not able to get a loan at reasonable rates. Again, bad sign for stockholders.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Sales my be further off then we thought but if/when they come this 25% sharing of ownership structure will be nothing but a speed bump. Don't forget we were running on fumes before today. 10M buys us another 12-18months. Even if the offering went off at .50 like many had hoped we still would have added 20M shares to the float. 4 years is a long time to have held but at least your still able to end up with triple digit returns. I'm for one glad that it's still "game on".
    1 Feb 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't fast enough at .40, will see if it goes that way again as have order in till cancelled.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    JP- How long does it take to negotiate and move forward with this kind of announcement / offering ?

     

    Could they have pre-determined the 40-day moving average terms early in January when things looked much more dire? It does seem a little nonsensical to offer at $0.35 when so much volume has traded at $0.60, but the decision becomes more understandable if the process had to be started a few weeks ago? Or could they have made the decision in a matter of a day? (Does my question make sense?)
    1 Feb 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    I wish they had done this closer to the FY'11 call. I'd love to see some insight into why they decided this price.

     

    To me its one of two things:

     

    A purchaser is requiring a capital upgrade in order to meet production before they release news of a purchase

     

    The orders just aren't there yet

     

    Unfortunately, not knowing is the worst part.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13572) | Send Message
     
    Added a trading bloc at $.45, lurking much lower...
    1 Feb 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing terms were worked out quite a while ago. I just keep telling myself that TG stated in interview that purchase orders are in hand.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    But that doesn't tell you if they are significant ...

     

    For example, the purchase order for the Navy Building mini-Cube ... encouraging, but not significant from a revenue standpoint
    1 Feb 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    The part that makes me most angry is that I talked with Tom Granville at length about this on the phone after the last CC. He personally told me that they have "banks calling us every day with offers to help us get financing. Financing will be no problem". He said those words to me directly on the phone, and then he agrees to sell stock at a price about half of market. I feel he personally misled me in that conversation. John Petersen says Tom Granville would never lie and I believe him. But it tells me Tom is either much less in touch with the financial market than he thought (a bad sign) or the company's financial condition has worsened significantly in the interim (about three months) since our conversation, also a bad sign. There is no good spin I can see in today's announcement.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Call him back?!!!
    1 Feb 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30289) | Send Message
     
    There is an incredible amount of tension in any significant financing transaction because the existing stockholders want the price to be as close to market as possible and the new investors are terrified by recent price volatility.

     

    It might help you put on a new investor hat for a moment and imagine the following scenario. Axion has come to you and asked you to write a $250,000 check in a registered direct offering. You like the story and are willing to take the risk, but you look at the price chart and see that the stock got beaten down to $.27 at the end of last year. What kind of price concession would you look for given the amount you planned to put at risk?

     

    I don't like the fact that $.35 was the best price Axion could get from big investors, but I do understand the risk and volatility issues from the new investors' perspective.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Tom does not have a crystal ball. Maybe he meant "no problem" as in we won't run out of cash. I never thought that a financing would be this low, but then again, I bet management took it in the shorts worse then us.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Form 8-K for AXION POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC.

     

    1-Feb-2012

     

    Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement

     

    ITEM 1.01 ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT
    Axion Power International, Inc. (the "Company") has entered into definitive agreements (a copy of the form of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1) to sell no more than 28,571,429 shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the "Shares"), at a price per share of $0.35 for gross proceeds up to $10,000,000 (the "Offering"), before deducting placement agents' fees and estimated offering expenses.

     

    The Shares are being offered directly by Axion pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement previously filed with, and declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 14, 2011. The Company anticipates that the net proceeds from the Offering will be used for working capital, capital expenditures and general corporate purposes. The closing of this offering is expected to occur on or about February 3, 2012, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

     

    In connection therewith, the Company has entered into a Placement Agency Agreement (a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2) with Philadelphia Brokerage Corporation and Emerging Growth Equities, Ltd., as placement agents (the "Placement Agents") for the Offering. The Placement Agency Agreement provides for compensation to the Placement Agents of a cash fee of seven percent (7.0%) of the gross proceeds received by the Company in the issuance of Shares placed by such Placement Agent in the Offering, and for the issuance to the Placement Agents of the number of shares of Common Stock equal to three percent (3.0%) of the gross proceeds received by the Company in the issuance of Shares placed by the Placement Agents in the Offering, with such shares of Common Stock valued at the price at which the Shares are sold in the Offering. The Placement Agents have agreed that the shares of Common Stock issued pursuant to the equity portion of such fee shall not be sold during the Offering, or sold, transferred, assigned, pledged, or hypothecated, or be the subject of any hedging, short sale, derivative, put, or call transaction that would result in the effective economic disposition of the Shares by any person for a period of 180 days immediately following the date of the Offering except as permitted by FINRA Rule 5110(g).
    1 Feb 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    My take on it is simple - the company did not have any choice and was uncomfortable with a loan coupled with an uncertain sales outlook. At the root of the issue is the company has sold only 36 batteries to a true commercial end user. They also kept plenty of shares available for a real capital raise when manufacturing needs to be expanded.

     

    I understand the lack of sales. It simply took longer to refine the manufacturing process than initially anticipated. Now they've made two big bets. The first is that they are finally ready to sell the batteries. Secondly, they've quit waiting for an order to fly in over the transom and, like the buzzard who has lost its patience, they've hired Vani to go out and kill something.

     

    I speculated a while back that Axion would make it through 2012 one way or another and they will. I also think something will pop in 2012 sales-wise. That still has to occur, but it is hard to sell an end user when you have "going concern" issues stamped on your forehead.

     

    Holding this stock or buying additional shares comes down to only one question now. Is the battery going to gain real traction in the market place in 2012 or not?
    1 Feb 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I agree with your assessment that management may have had no choice. That is the troubling part. In my tirades above I hope I was clear that the announcement today can be interpreted in various ways and does not say necessarily that management made a mistake (one option) but may mean that the outlook is worse or more uncertain than I at least thought. I don't believe the company would sell stock this cheaply if indeed there are orders in hand or imminent announcements from large purchasers. So the actions here suggest a more uncertain outlook than I was picturing or possibly management did misjudge the capital markets in their earlier comments about financing being no problem. Either way, as Jakurtz says, hard to put lipstick on this pig.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... Another way to look at it is not from the company perspective at all. The economic activity forecast for the next 12-18 months is growth in the macro of 1.2% - 2.8%. Looking at the likely customer base there may be a lag between what they want to do and when they can justify the expenditure. That is a risk I'd rather suffer through on a cash basis than a cash flow basis.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DRich: Great point. These times are still uncertain. Raising cash without debt obligations was the smart play.

     

    I still hold 2013 as the year Axion will really take off (after another dilution, or a bridge loan to expand production facilities).
    1 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    >Mayscribe ... I'm inclined to believe that your "after another dilution" may not pan out that way. I'm looking for orders to fill-out existing expansion being done by financing account receivable and building a nestegg for a matching funds partnership with whoever agrees to manufacture with "Axion Inside".
    1 Feb 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DRich: Possible. I hope you're right. And along with your thinking is that I've heard TG say several times that Axion could build the carbon activated cathode and ship it all over the world to other battery makers.

     

    In the next Concentrator I wrote about the building up of receivables, angle.

     

    Makes a lot of sense, at least to me it does.

     

    But we still have potentially $18M more of a board approved offering(s).
    1 Feb 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1858) | Send Message
     
    It is difficult to put lipstick on this pig, but here are my thoughts. First, from the SEC 8-k just filed it looks like there is a lock-up on the offered shares for 180 days. Second, it was only a month ago we were trading below the offered price and climbed 130% in three weeks without knowing whether financing would be found or not (we all assumed it would). So, the way I am trying to look at this is wipe away the past three and a half weeks and start over again but this time with the knowledge that there finances are in order through the rest of this year, that should add comfort and at least 10 - 20% price appreciation on top of the offering.

     

    My view, now there is nothing to worry about with the company in 2012 other than battery sales and tests.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    The way I read it, the lockup is only on the "issuance to the Placement Agents of the number of shares of Common Stock equal to three percent (3.0%) of the gross proceeds received by the Company "
    1 Feb 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1858) | Send Message
     
    I see, if I am wrong about the lock-up then I am afraid I just put really ugly lipstick on the pig. No lock-up with a discount to market like that is pretty much giving away money to really wealthy people and not their staunch shareholders like us.

     

    I guess, all I know is I braved it to .35 a month ago. Believing the new investors are looking for more than a 10% return is now one of my only consolations and that the .40 floor should be made of cement thicker than the new World Trade Center.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz,

     

    Having participated in placements myself I promise you that most of the new investors would like much more then a 10% return (maybe even add a zero or two).
    1 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10232) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way, happy or not, to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Feb 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
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