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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 58: Beginning Feb 1, 2012, Axion Power $10M Direct Offering 190 comments
    Feb 1, 2012 11:19 AM
     

     

    Axion Power Announces Registered Direct Common Stock Offering of up to $10.0 million

    NEW CASTLE, Pa., Feb. 1 , 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW) ("Axion" or "the Company"), the developer of advanced lead­carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to sell an aggregate of not more than 28,571,429 shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the "Shares"), at a price per share of $0.35 for gross proceeds up to $10 million, before deducting placement agents' fees and estimated offering expenses. The share price for this transaction was pre-determined by calculating a 10% discount to market using the Company's volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP).

    (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100119/AXIONLOGO)

    The Shares are being offered directly by Axion pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement previously filed with, and declared effective by, the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 14, 2011. The Company anticipates that the net proceeds from the offering will be used for working capital, capital expenditures and general corporate purposes. The closing of this offering is expected to occur on or about February 3, 2012, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

    Philadelphia Brokerage Corporation and Emerging Growth Equities, Ltd served as co-placement agents for the offering. When available, copies of the prospectus supplement and the accompanying base prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from the Securities and Exchange Commission website at http://www.sec.gov.

    This press release does not and shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any of the securities, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration under the securities laws of any state or jurisdiction.

    About Axion Power International, Inc.

    Axion has developed and patented a next generation energy storage device that won the prestigious Frost & Sullivan Technology Award for North America in the field of lead-acid batteries. According to Frost & Sullivan, Axion's new PbC batteries have "the potential to revitalize the lead-acid battery industry by breathing new life into an established technology that is not well suited to the requirements of important new applications like hybrid electric vehicles and renewable power."

    Axion Power International, Inc. is the industry leader in the field of lead-acid-carbon energy storage technologies. Axion believes this new battery technology is the only class of advanced battery that can be assembled on existing lead-acid battery production lines throughout the world utilizing Axion's proprietary carbon electrodes. Axion's future goal, after filling their plant's lead-carbon battery production capacity, is to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry.

    For more information, visit www.axionpower.com

    Forward-looking Statements

    Certain statements in this Press Release are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risk factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include the risk for the Company to complete its development work, as well as the risks inherent in commercializing a new product (including technology risks, market risks, financial risks and implementation risks, and other risks and uncertainties affecting the Company), as well as other risks that have been included in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are available at sec.gov. We disclaim any intention or obligation to revise any forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, financial estimates, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

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Comments (191)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last Comment in the previous Concentrator from jakurtz:

     

    It is difficult to put lipstick on this pig, but here are my thoughts. First, from the SEC 8-k just filed it looks like there is a lock-up on the offered shares for 180 days. Second, it was only a month ago we were trading below the offered price and climbed 130% in three weeks without knowing whether financing would be found or not (we all assumed it would). So, the way I am trying to look at this is wipe away the past three and a half weeks and start over again but this time with the knowledge that there finances are in order through the rest of this year, that should add comfort and at least 10 - 20% price appreciation on top of the offering.

     

    My view, now there is nothing to worry about with the company in 2012 other than battery sales and tests.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1226) | Send Message
     
    "My view, now there is nothing to worry about with the company in 2012 other than battery sales and tests."

     

    we know more today than we did yesterday. i guess shareholders forgot there was a need to raise capital.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Exactly my thoughts, tragicslip. We all knew this was coming. I don't understand all the fuss.

     

    I'll admit that I'm surprised that the price fell as much as it did today - I thought everyone was pretty abreast of the situation.

     

    By rights the price should rise now since Axion is in better shape than it was before. And I believe it will next week when everyone sees that these new investors didn't buy for a quick flip.

     

    The only disappointment to me is that it came before an announced sale. I would guess that TG wanted to do this after a sale announcement but ran out of time.

     

    At least this way we have enough working capital that we can afford to be patient as we wait for sales to materialize.

     

    That's just my take. I guess we'll see over the weeks to come.

     

    D
    1 Feb 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    The $10M is also 8M less than TG was authorized to go for under the first tranche of the shelf.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I share mixed feelings. I knew the thwacking was coming, knew I was going to take a hit. Also read the discussion about potentially another delay with the Norfolk testing being intimated in the past most recent Concentrators.

     

    I also don't think Axion raised enough capital for production expansion. But maybe they (we) right now don't need the expansion, and the Gen 1 line can handle production with the current in-hand purchase orders.

     

    What I do see, though, is some group of folks willing to plop down $10,000,000.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    RE: possibly not raising enough money for production expansion

     

    I think rickdplano has the motivation pegged here with this statement:

     

    " 'without knowing the order or cash flow will be there' is kind of my point. If there are orders in hand or management expects significant orders in the near future, then a loan is far better than issuing stock. If managment sees an uncertain outlook or is desperate, then issuing stock may make sense. I was not aware the outlook was so uncertain or desperate "

     

    If you have large purchases in hand and need to scale up production, then you go with debt and compute debt service coverage into the new equipment budget. If you're chugging along still looking for sales, then it is prudent to find investors / equity financing.

     

    While I may not connote it as "desperate" as ricknplano does, I think the equity financing tends to indicate we are still looking for sales - i.e. this $10 million will merely cover the continued $2-3 million cash burn per quarter... it won't be devoted to new equipment. When we're ready to buy new equipment to fill a purchase order, they'll knock on a bank for a loan and fold the debt service into the product sales.

     

    So I don't think any of the $10 million is for capex investment - just working capital for another year of expenses. When we have POs and need capex, they'll announce a sufficiently sized bank loan IMO.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    I have never seen a small company thrive after a debt financing, although many of my clients have tried and failed. Unless a company has enough free cash flow to cover the debt service, the result for stockholders is always catastrophic. My experiences with debt over the years are bad enough that I've developed a personal cardinal rule

     

    – A COMPANY THAT'S BIG ENOUGH TO USE DEBT INSTEAD OF EQUITY IS TOO BIG TO HAVE ME AS A STOCKHOLDER.

     

    I would have preferred a higher price, but believe management absolutely did the right thing.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    I might push back on the speculation that says this transaction shows desperation or lack of future potential by management.

     

    Did any of us expect large enough sales this year that would make taking on debt advantageous?

     

    I did not expect large orders that way, what I did and still do expect are some additional PowerCube sales and significant progress in testing with new testing orders. I can not speak for everyone but I was not expecting the kinds of large sales that would pay for debt this year, I do expect those things next year. This year to me is still larger test orders and demonstrations but not necessarily large commercial sales other than in the PowerCube area and perhaps NS, but I don't think those would be big enough to make bringing on debt safe at this stage.

     

    When large commercial orders start hitting, with the knowledge of this group, the pps is going to be well ahead of the curve.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Pztrick44 ... I think 'ricknplano' is being a bit rash. Financing expense is impractical to me.

     

    From the last Concentrator; ... Another way to look at it is not from the company perspective at all. The economic activity forecast for the next 12-18 months is growth in the macro of 1.2% - 2.8%. Looking at the likely customer base there may be a lag between what they want to do and when they can justify the expenditure. That is a risk I'd rather suffer through on a cash basis than a cash flow basis.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Maya said: "What I do see, though, is some group of folks willing to plop down $10,000,000."

     

    True. In fact, looking around these concentrators I see a "...group of folks willing to plop down $10,000,000".
    1 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz,
    The timing of this only three days after announcing a new Sales VP, one that knows the business well and has great contacts, suggests that generating sales will be the company's critical focus going forward this year.

     

    The question our group should remain attentive to at the moment is whether Vani can deliver those large commercial sales this year, now that funding operations is not a concern.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5461) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz,,,I agree with you here 100%.... Debt is a bad thing at this point. I posted an article where BAC was calling and not renewing small business loans for no reason and the customers were current.

     

    This company is better off "debt free"..

     

    Expectations for huge orders got ahead of themselves....TG said auto would be down the road, not this year. NS going slow & steady it looks like. PC & the grid is the hope for 2012 sales....it is a year from now before we see much. IMO
    1 Feb 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, TB. Today is out of the way, FINALLY!
    1 Feb 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Agreed.

     

    For crying out loud. The price is only back to Jan 18-23 range. Down 20% on a theoretical dilution of 33%. New investors willing to drop $10M. The bulk of us sitting tight.

     

    I had expected this to take several years. By all means, talk it through and analyze it. But I'm not upset.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » mds: I'm very impressed with how the shares are performing today, as when compared to the past shelf offering that, if I'm correct, took the stock down 50%, and then it went down a dime more, IIRC.

     

    Boy was I a hot head, then. Think I recall blasting JP but good.

     

    How times have changed.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    wasn't that your first place in fantasy??

     

    lol...

     

    map
    1 Feb 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I'm not going to try to catch a falling knife today. I want to see the price at 3:00PM Friday afternoon. I don't see the capital raise as anything earth-shattering. People either will or won't buy the battery in 2012 and with the production capacity available today they can book some significant orders if the demand is there. Not a hell of a lot has changed except they have the money to execute a sales and marketing plan and its about time they committed to doing so!
    1 Feb 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2014) | Send Message
     
    Guys, no need to push up the bid prices. Let people outside of this concentrator sell to you at lower prices. Show some restraint and you can pick up shares cheaply throughout the day. At some point someone will sell on news...just have to wait.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    I was more prepared for the shelf to go off at $.45 than $.35, but I also anticipated the market moving to match or hover just above $.45, and it has.

     

    So I am initiaiting my "buying opp" strategy and picking up some trading blocs from whatever the market will give me. My core holding is far overweight, btw, and is a strong hold.

     

    My being wrong in my estimate of the offfer - but close on the market pricing number - doesn't hurt my feelings much.

     

    NOW, if TG and da boyz at Axion want to hire a middleman one day and contact US about a private placement I suspect they could fill their needs at closer to 80% (rather than 60%) though probably in smaller chunks.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, Welcome to the board. A lot of people that still believe in the company may have just sold at what I might deem the cement .40 floor and they did so based on an emotional reaction. After time I think the more rational argument will be...

     

    "We just made a climb 130% with no definitive knowledge of financing. We now have financing and other than new shareholder that get to average at .35 :-( (that is a mad face) nothing else has changed except that Axion now has cash to continue as a going concern for at least another year, in which time we expect some rather large announcements regarding progress toward commercialization."

     

    That might cause some who sold to reconsider the losses they just took.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The $.35 price was set using the 40 day VWAP. Had they waited another 10 days we would have been out of the YE selling making the VWAP MUCH higher. Why didn't we wait? better chances selling 28M shares at $.35?
    1 Feb 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    The investors likely were aligned well before our recent uptrend and they would have been the ones that told TG if/when to pull the trigger. I'm sure they had a pps cap in mind. I too wish that this thing went off in late February but then again you don't go broke "taking the cash" we you can.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Okay, still a little voice keeps asking why 2/1/12 and not 2/11/12 with all the selling in 2011 and YE selling expected by many here. A little confidence erosion is all I am saying...

     

    On a positive note (I hope) all of my GTC's hit! just wish they would have been lower!
    1 Feb 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I think we are looking at a 6 month time frame for the share price to either start climbing or it will begin an increasingly rapid descent into true stockholder hell again. Why six months? Because with their burn rate another capital raise will start looming on the horizon in six to eight months.

     

    Without a major sales announcement or an absolute ton of small orders.in hand 9 months from now I think the stock will be back in the .20's or lower in Q4. That would indicate to me that we can relax a little for 6 months at most, but Axion had better have significant sales by the Q3 conference call or the bottom is going to drop out of the PPS.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    BW,

     

    We had been above $1 in the past 12 months on the anticipation of sales. Also the cash uncertainty is now over as well. I doubt anyone here would dump below .40. The days of SS and Q dumping are near over and I'm sure our new friends intend on selling at higher than their cost.

     

    Plus we likely will do 10-15M in sales for 2012 thus burn might get offset some. I think this placement marks a floor and allows us the 12-18 months needed to bag the elephant.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    bazoooka> You are telling me that the market is going to hold up the price if there are no significant sales by the end of Q3? That sales anticipation run up to $1.27 died like a duck shot out of the air. Now we've got millions of new shares that were acquired for .35. I doubt these people will willingly keep the shares based purely on hopium. Axion had better report more than just "things are progressing according to plan".

     

    The .57 cent capital raise put shareholders in hell for a long time, and now there are a whole new crop of shareholders at .35. I doubt if this group is going to have any more patience than the last group.

     

    Saying "we will likely do 10-15M in sales" versus actually doing 10-15M in sales are horses of a different color. Let me be clear, I'm still a buyer when this hiccup settles down. I frankly don't care where it settles either. I'll be happy to buy in the .60's if that's where it winds up on solid ground. I'm just playing this stock far more conservatively than the last time when I went all-in on a hunch.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes it's almost like everything I've written goes in one eye and out the other. The $.57 raise put a $1.20 floor under the price until two dueling liquidation trustees for old stockholders drove the price down into the $.60s as they fought each other for every transaction.

     

    The price collapse spooked the 2009 investors into selling because there was no visible reason for the price decline. The problem was compounded when one huge purchaser died in a car accident and another huge purchaser changed managers.

     

    Expecting a replay of the debacle we've live through for the last 20 months is baseless. Sometimes I wonder whether it's worth spending my time explaining and re-explaining the same things.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    BW,

     

    The profitability of a sales announcement is greater now than ever. Now that we have 12-18 more months of runway we can get to a point of operating profits. I don't know when the stock will go vertical but I do know that we have 10M dollars to help get us there. 28M extra shares should only concern short term traders. When this thing does get to the big time we will do 1M shares a day and the float wont be an issue. IMO
    1 Feb 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    JP: "Sometimes I wonder whether it's worth spending my time explaining and re-explaining the same things".

     

    If you can do in the name of education for some of the blithering idiots that flock to your articles on the futility of PEVs and similar, you can certainly do it for the thoughtful and respectful crowd you find here! :-))

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    JP> The potential cause of selling pressure may not be exactly the same as the 2009 crowd with dying investors, manager changes and busted Quercus's, but lacking meaningful sales by Q3 in my opinion, and it is only my opinion, I think the downward pressure on the share price will produce the same results as 2011.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> "Trust, but verify!"
    1 Feb 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2317) | Send Message
     
    bazooooka,
    I completely agree that AXPW now has the runway to "get to a point of operating profits." I am not aligned with your thought, however, that "28M extra shares should only concern short term traders."

     

    I do plenty of short term trading with liquid large caps, but all of my AXPW shares are for the long term (at this point in time.) And the new issuance does really matter to me because I want to add blocs at prices I consider "right" for me individually.

     

    Right now, we have a new AXPW issuance of about 28 million new shares. Less than 4% of those shares are in lock-up mode for 6 months (see WTB and JP comments.) That means about 96% of the new shares purchased @ 35 cents could be held or sold anytime in the future. So I for one will watch closely what happens over coming days, because today's action on nearly 2.5 million shares may or may not define the immediate price trend.

     

    The right stock purchased at the wrong price is the wrong stock in my book. The definition of what is the "right price" is very individual but today's 28 million share issuance matters even for long term holders like me -- looking to add shares.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5461) | Send Message
     
    I envy you "disciplined" rascals ! LOL (in good humor)
    1 Feb 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    Mercy J, sounds like you've been in this "game" for while :-)
    1 Feb 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2317) | Send Message
     
    OR,
    Only 2 years as a full time trader and investor -- but I certainly have the bruises to remind me of many fine "lessons learned."
    1 Feb 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Point taken, but whether it was 18M or 28M shares, anyone who fears the overhang is best to stay on the sidelines or watch it like a hawk regardless of where the placement went off at. There's not anything we can do about short term "flippers".

     

    Personally, I don't expect new investors to tank us below .35. They may cap a run above .50-.60 for awhile but if we keep doing 400K a day we"ll get through any weak hands as we already have with SS and Quercus (among others). One could even presume that many of the new investors may actually be similar to us Axionistas in their objectives.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    JP
    "Sometimes I wonder whether it's worth spending my time explaining and re-explaining the same things."
    Yes...due to the nature of the "beast"...commenters..... 's transition.
    New readers, commenters (new and old), frustrated/impatient commenters (new and old).
    And time frame...stop-start (no pun intended)...delay...stop - start...announcements.... nature of the beast.
    I suggest the vast majority of your "followers" value your integrity and analysis...a little more patience and understanding John...just a little while longer!...;-)
    2 Feb 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    You're right of course, but that doesn't keep me from feeling like I'm spinning my wheels sometimes.
    2 Feb 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As far as the bridge loan idea, I agree with John that this is no time to acquire debt. It's tough enough out there trying to obtain a big loan with decent terms during these uncertain times.

     

    However, if Axion can get some receivables by merely using the production abilities they now have, and these receivable are from AAA companies, who than want more of what Axion sells, than that's the time to pull the bridge loan trigger.

     

    The $10M capital raise gives us another year of no "ongoing concern" issues. Plenty of time to allow Norfolk, BMW and the likes finish up their testing, and choose Axion Power as the battery of choice.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To sum up how I feel, I just added 50,000 more shares @ $0.48.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Nice piece of punctuation there, my friend. I have added 25,700 shares at various prices thus far myself, and still lurking...
    1 Feb 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well...I could have written it somewhat better. My iPhone and home phone are going bonkers today!

     

    And...watching the fantastic movie Amistad until 2AM last night didn't help, either.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, maybe my subtle humor was TOO subtle that time! I meant it in a "supportive" vein rather than a critique. Sorry.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh no, TB! I got it right off. My subtle humor was a derivative of yours...it wasn't the punctuation, it was the prose!
    1 Feb 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Maya: "Amistad" and "Quigly Down Under" two of my favs. Not many movies I watch more than once. These two and "The Usual Suspects" I've probably seen at least a half-dozen times each.

     

    I wait long enough to forget details so I can enjoy them almost as much as the first viewing.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    .... Still lurking too.... that's at least 3 of us....
    1 Feb 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Dry powder clears tomorrow, licking my chops as well, LURKING !!!

     

    BUT, I do so with an eye watching for some meaningful sales. As mentioned if this addition to shares is only to pay the light bill and other expenses we should know that within a few months...

     

    Then i might be looking for the exit by the end of the year...No need to tell me to sell now, i am a big boy, been around the block a few times. I also know when the wool is getting pulled over my eyes.

     

    Time will tell , and it should be soon , as these investors will want results, They did not earn their millions waiting around too long..imho
    1 Feb 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    It dropped to .38, and now its back up to .48. Well above the 50 day MA at .41. Looking at the daily chart, it dropped to around .45 on the open on cumulative sales of around 300k, than dropped to .37 on cumulative sales of a bit over 300k. Than, it started trending up, with buying and selling. It’s now up to .48. So it’s up 37% beyond the dilution price. I think the stock is exhibiting surprising strength.

     

    When I see a small company resort to raising capital by increasing debt, it’s a red flag to me.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FPA: Nice analytics! Hopefully, today is but a blip on the radar in the rear view mirror of our future.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    I am of course attempting to bottom feed, but so far no bites. :)
    1 Feb 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    FPA.... any luck this morning?
    1 Feb 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I picked up 16k at .47. That takes my average sp down below .5.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    Great... i'm hangin' below .50 too...
    1 Feb 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1514) | Send Message
     
    John, do you have reason to believe that TG shares your aversion to debt financing? I don't like debt either.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    Tom is more conservative financially than I am. Busboys who take out sub-prime mortgages end up going bust. Companies that don't have enough cash flow to pay debt service end up going bust – even when the financial projections show you everything will work out just fine.

     

    I've literally lost millions in companies that borrowed too early in their life-cycles. I would have preferred a higher price, but I understand both sides of this investment dynamic all too well. I think management made the right choice – again – even though it was the unpleasant choice for those of us who are in for an average of over $1 per share; which incidentally includes the entire management team and board of directors.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    John, thanks for hangin' in here with us today and fielding questions... your time here speaks volumes about your integrity.

     

    Thanks,

     

    Jason
    1 Feb 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...I go to a doctor's appointment this morning, get back, check my email and find that all hell has broken loose!
    A question about the financing. As I read the SEC filing it says that Axion gets $10,000,000 for the shares, but there is a 7% and 3% charge against the sale for the financing. So if I read this correctly, Axion really only walks away with $9 million instead of $10 million?
    The new buyers have to wait 180 days after the transaction is completed, so we are looking at these shares being available to the market in early August. So either management will have made some sales by then, the stock will be going up, and the new owners will want to hold onto their shares, or Axion will still be treading water, and we can anticipate the possibility of another big sell off. Time will tell.
    I guess if nothing else, today's run down will make it easier for me to buy more shares when my latest funds clear.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    The brokers have to wait 180 days. The buyers are free to buy or sell as the spirit moves them. The buyers also have a very recent view of what happens if too many big fat guys try to crowd through an exit too quickly.

     

    If you put on the investors' hat for a moment, they probably wrote checks for an average of $250,000 each to play in this game. The stock has decent liquidity, but it's nothing to write home about.

     

    There may be a couple flippers in the crowd (because there are always a couple flippers in the crowd) but by and large you can bet that most of the new investors would fit well in this crowd, although their suits would be more expensive.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    With all due respect where or how did you come up with 250k ??? just learning...

     

    MAP
    1 Feb 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    All things considered, only the PPS of the sale disappoints me.

     

    I think DRich hit the nail on the head about the GDP and uncertainty that accompanies it and avoiding dependency on revenue streams.

     

    If I'm a CEO and have lots of *potential* orders in hand that *might* be delayed or deferred due to economic weakness and/or other unanticipated conditions, I would also avoid taking on debt.

     

    The same way I would run my household finances.

     

    Rick was right that it *does* indicate less conviction by TG going forward, IMO.

     

    But I see that lack of conviction as prudent - avoidance of over-confidence is a valuable trait for risk-management.

     

    So overall I maintain my confidence in the crew that "throws nickels around like manhole covers".

     

    I now will have no problem taking my core up to 100K at the right price.

     

    I had been planning on $0.42 to replace my trading blocks. After things settle down, it may still be there or maybe closer to $0.30 again ... or even a bit higher. But it will now include additions to the core.

     

    Patience has been my friend thus far and it still is.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: Here's my Level 2 buy @ $0.48 today:

     

    11:29:40 10,000
    11:29:43 30,000
    11:32:11 300
    11:34:32 300
    11:39:21 9,400

     

    Took almost 10 minutes to get my order filled.

     

    The old saying, "You snooze, you lose," really hit home today, as I chose to sleep in after taking in a late night Academy Award winning movie. That extra sleep cost me at least $2500. Rats.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Its been four hours since I e-mailed AXPW management for information about participating in the offering. No response.

     

    If its a bought deal, I believe the announcement should have and could have said so.

     

    In light of the recent enthusiasm about the company, I think it might have been valid to leave room for over-subscription to the offering to allow those not in-the-know on the bought deal to participate and add accretive value to the company by increasing it balance sheet at a nominal additional dilution to the shares outstanding.

     

    If the company had responded to me, or does respond to me that the enrollment to the offering is full, then I'll consider whether or not to buy shares on the open market. At the moment, I'm just irritable that no one's minding the ship enough to communicate with shareholders about a direct offering with the company in a more timely manner. That, to me, does not show a prepared team.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jon: Great idea! But the offering has been filled and closed since yesterday (Jan. 31), according to my broker. It's a done deal.

     

    (I was thinking in the exact same vein.)
    1 Feb 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I would rather they had made the offering open, or allowed for over-subscription, as:
    a) members of this group that participated would be stronger hands.
    b) raising more funds now, with management's ability to spend efficiently, would be better insurance against having to raise funds again later in an unknown future economic environment.

     

    As it stands, mark the date 180 days from now on your calendars.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Jon I would tend to agree with your timeline, but the logical conclusion (given all we know) I am taking away from this is that Management's view of various potential revenue streams tells them that they can anticipate strong sales over the next 2 quarters.

     

    I doubt they did this anticipating a new equity raise in another 6 months.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    The only shares that are subject to a lockup are the compensation shares to the brokers (±900,000 shares).

     

    In my experience investors in deals like this agonize long and hard before writing a $250,000 check. There will undoubtedly be some flippers because there always are. But I'll bet that most of the buyers have Axionista mindsets with more expensive suits.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5461) | Send Message
     
    Jon,
    AXPW "had" to have this money in hand this month ... or the consequences would have been dire. TG took the guaranteed route.

     

    I agree it would have been nice to pick it up at .35, maybe next time but I doubt that either....they will always take the bird in the hand until revenues are for sure.

     

    I think he raised enough $$$ for an entire year's operating expense excluding the new lines which I look to be the next round. However, i have that 180 days on my calendar too.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    Did you ever inquire about participating before today. I'm sure if you were looking for 1M shares they would have directed you. Less than that I haven't had much luck getting in on the fun.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Expensive suits and the ability to write a $250,000 check are unrelated events in my experience.

     

    Moreover, the truly classy places in the world assume you belong even if you walk in wearing jeans and a t-shirt.

     

    Fools, nouveau-riche, people pretending to be richer than they are, and people trapped in 1800s-thinking judge based on clothing alone.

     

    Plenty of people in this room belonged in that offering pool whether they have bothered to throw down money at an over-priced suit or not. The stock didn't go up over 100% in a month because people were just tossing the leftovers of their meager existence into the stock.

     

    Enough with the over-priced suit nonsense. They did a bought deal with a small group through a broker. They did not provide an opportunity for others who had funds to participate. This was done quietly through word of mouth. This is about those on the inside and those on the outside, and we were left outside. Period.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    My point is, why not raise funds for more than 1 year now, if its possible? The registration was for more.

     

    The global economy is uncertain. Having enough cash on the balance sheet to keep going through any future economic issues would be accretive to the value of the company IMO.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooooka,

     

    If I thought they were (a) going to go so low with the offering price and (b) were going to pull a bought-deal maneuver like this, I would have at least inquired about the minimum investment. I didn't inquire because I'm already pretty loaded up, I expected the offering to go off higher, and I expected them to do the offering differently to maximum filling out what they registered for.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    Over the last few months I've had several people contact me offline and suggest that they might be interested in participating in the offering. My advice was always the same – contact Tom and let him know of their interest. Small companies do placed deals. Large ones do widespread deals for public consumption. In a perfect world things might be different but the differences in the legal hoops for the two types of deals are enormous. I'm sorry if you find a little levity offensive today, but since I'm in at an average cost of $1.25 per share I either have to laugh or cry and I don't feel like crying because I believe management did the right thing.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5461) | Send Message
     
    My only answer Jon is that management did not want to sell any more shares at .35 than they had to....I suspect the Feb.1 date was set quite a while back with a maximum price to be paid. You can probably the signing was done when the stock was less than .40

     

    I will bet u a coke or cup of coffee that the stock still trades over $1 within a year of today. (.99 u win, 1.00-push, 1.01 I win) It has done remarkable today considering.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    Management raised the cash it needed at a price it didn't like. We have holders screaming bloody murder over 28 million shares. Would you have been happier if they'd sold 56 or 84 million?
    1 Feb 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    We may see another round next year. You likely will have another chance at getting in on a placement then. Hopefully, it's an up round. Unfortunately, I'm loaded up as well and won't have enough dry powder to qualify. It might be a high class problem by then.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    "Would you have been happier if they'd sold 56 or 84 million?"

     

    Yes to you, and yes to your suit.

     

    Levity back to you.

     

    The last time I left a message for TG, he didn't return my call. Life isn't perfect. They could have raised more money at a higher price from people here. But, that wouldn't be the elitist way to do things in fancy suits. Bunch of high falutin' foolishness with one of those fake Genevois smiles.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    The "suits" analogy was tongue and cheek; imo. I think you read too much into it. It was just a nice way of saying "high net worth". I'm with you on the jeans thing and I think JP would be as well. Anyhow, offerings are usually meant for those who want to throw big money in all at once. If you are one of those people please let Axion know and you'll be on the short list next time around.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    They haven't returned my e-mail from 8:11 a.m. Period.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    The "suits" analogy is stupid. It is snide. It shows a lack of worldliness. It shows the whole "inside job" nature of dumb financial bunnies who never learn there's a heap of people with plenty smarts and plenty money that aren't like them and never want to be. The people "like them" are less reliable investors... but that's what we got $10 million worth of today.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Probably swamped reading all the Concentrator comments :-)
    1 Feb 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Would Axion have to file papers again if it wants to use the remainder of the shelf next year? Also is that remainder 8M shares or 18M shares? I for one am glad that we only took what we needed. I'd think if we can raise in 2009 and 20012 then Axion can handle almost any macro-climate.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    John do you think some of the 2009 investors are participating in this round as well. I know in the past I've been offered multiple rounds once my name made someone's Rolodex. I'd think many of the 2009 heads are still long and strong. Hopefully any flippers will grab their quick 20% today (or in the next few) and then are base will be solid.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    Jon are you related to Jerry? Sorry.... too much levity!
    1 Feb 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    It wouldn't surprise me if 2009 investors who held were invited to participate, but I'd be surprised if 2009 investors who sold were given another bite at the apple. Unfortunately we'll never know.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » zoooka: No way John could know the 2009 investors question in advance. However, in the future, that could change.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    I meant no offense Jon and I'm truly sorry that you found my suits reference in poor taste. I'm not thrilled with the pricing, but I know first hand how long it takes to pull an offering together. Deals like this take months and when prices start moving down for no apparent reason investors get skittish. Investors also get skittish when prices start moving up for no apparent reason. Axion's had both in the last 90 days.

     

    I've been on the receiving end of calls where buyers walked deals because of soft market conditions and I've been on the receiving end of calls where buyers threatened to walk deals because market conditions were looking too strong for no apparent reason. The one thing I know for certain is that the guy who pays the fiddle gets to call the tune.

     

    A couple years ago Firefly Energy had term sheets for its next round of financing in hand and the board decided they wanted to wait for better terms. The better terms never arrived and Firefly ended up in Chapter 11. I heard the details from Tom Granville who thought it was the dumbest and most arrogant mistake he'd ever heard of.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Occam,

     

    Its on my profile page... not related to Jerry... and not related to the "film-maker" with whom I share a name in Minnesota either. I usually check in at the airport or doctor's office as "Springer, no relation to Jerry." I've had quite the range of reactions over the years from stone-faced to mild titter, to "Oh, I love that show" to "I'll bet you wish were. I'll bet he has the best parties..."
    1 Feb 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    I've apologized for the suit remark. What you do with my apology is your business.

     

    Structuring an offering for a micro-cap company has nothing to do with being an elitist and everything to do with State and Federal securities laws and regulations. The hoops a company has to jump through are very different if it's taking big checks from a few high-net worth investors or offering shares to a large number of retail investors. I know we have both types on this Concentrator, but the retail investors outnumber the HNW crowd by a wide margin. There are always trade-offs and I'm confident that management took the course of action they believed was best for stockholders.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    LOL... Jon

     

    If you've ever heard of Garrison Keilor... I get asked if I'm related to him at least once a month. I don't spell my last name even close to his spelling, but people still ask.

     

    Finally, I started saying "yes".. he's my father (born in the same year) just to make them blink!

     

    - Jason
    1 Feb 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    The odds are that they'll let the balance of the current shelf lapse. The critical requirements for filing a new shelf is a float that's worth more than $75 million, or about $.80 per share. With a year of running room I wouldn't expect another financing in 2012 unless a really big book of business develops. Under those circumstances I can't imagine a price anywhere near today's level.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough JP.

     

    There's a wide variety of way to conduct offerings and manage them, both well and poorly.

     

    I feel there were better ways to do this one that would have been more mindful and inclusive of current shareholders.

     

    However, its done. The cash is on hand is far more accretive than the minor detail of the dilution from additional shares.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    JS: Accretive and "buys" time down the read to do another offering at much more favorable terms (if needed). MHO
    1 Feb 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    There's nothing I would have liked better than to have a big chunk of the offering end up in the hands of the Axionistas. When the shelf was first filed, I gave the legal issues some serious skull time and couldn't come up with a plan that struck me as workable. Offerings like these are always a regulatory minefield and sometimes it's just too darned expensive to be as inclusive as you might prefer.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (555) | Send Message
     
    The good news is that in the end I think these shares will end up in the hands of the Axionistas and probably in relatively short order as well.
    1 Feb 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    My past experience with big offering investors is that they typically have an Axionista mindset and are not willing to flip out for pennies after climbing a massive wall of worry. There are some small funds that specialize in that kind of thing, but they invariably want to control all of the stock sold in an offering to ensure that they control traffic through the exit.
    2 Feb 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (141) | Send Message
     
    Can't say that I like how this worked, but I prefer equity as a form of raising money than debt.

     

    Seems to me that Axion might want to try and raise the other $8M that it is authorized to raise by going directly to its current shareholders and offering them the same deal as this offering. Could put a restriction that they can't sell for 2 years, or something like that. I would be more than happy to buy 50,000 shares on that basis.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    This may be way off base, but maybe some insiders were given a chance to buy the stock cheaper BEFORE the orders started coming in and the share price rising??? It could be possible and the private placement names will be no one where we could connect the dots.

     

    Personally, although it stings a little now, it might be a more prudent move than having a loan hanging over it's head...But i am betting that the insiders who were given a gift of a share price for a large check is possible....imho...

     

    Then again, i may be way off base, But i stated once i trust no one with my money, been burnt too many times. I just believe in the product, it just may needed more time...

     

    map
    1 Feb 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    Axion's management team is far too conservative to play games, and those insiders people love to talk about are guys like me who are in for average prices ranging from $1 to $2.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have always thought of a millionaire as being one who can sit down and write a check for a million bucks.

     

    No doubt there are a very few here who can afford do that. If Axion was to come to the Axionistas to raise capital, some of us would not have the funds to take on more stock, some of us would have signed up for another maybe 100 to 250k shares, and most of us would have only been able to afford a little more than we already have. Surely, Axion was not looking to raise money in $10 or $20K individual deals.

     

    Axion went to the suits, or blue jeans folks, or whatever, and got what they needed from a very few, as opposed to the potential hundreds of commenters here, as well as lurkers.

     

    The paper work would have been a nightmare. Also, if it was me that was approached to solicit to all of us Axionistas, this task would not have been able to be done on Seeking Alpha, due to their "Terms Of Use Agreement."

     

    Someone, I guess me by default, would have had to have contacted each one of us individually, to let them know a deal has been presented, and to look into it at another website. Given my recent comments about how inept I am geek-wise, and also that all the lurkers here reading and buying would have been left out in the cold (and likely po-ed) I would have declined to do such.

     

    I believe Axion did the prudent thing, with a few folks that can afford to sit down and cut a check for a million bucks.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Irrespective of what they wear, they are referred to as "accredited investors" and the rules are different for them.

     

    SEC: http://1.usa.gov/AAGoCn

     

    Perhaps some of us fit into that technical definition (I sort of fit on item 7), but I doubt many of us fit Maya's more worldly definition of someone who can write a check for $1million.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Good link SMaturin. Thank you. Although, a high bar to get over, there's a heck of a lot of ways to qualify as an accredited investor, and I strongly believe there are many people who qualify but don't know it because they never believe they qualify so they don't look into it. When something in your life triggers you being an accredited investor, there is no notification.

     

    However, there are plenty of higher levels, and this offering may have only been to "qualified investors" (the next step up).
    1 Feb 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    I must confess that I had been mulling over the idea of contacting Axion to inquire as to participation in the upcoming offer for over a month, without bothering to do so. Part of the reason was the fact that I have managed to achieve "stupidweight" (its what comes after being "overweight" and then "hyperweight" a stock) status for AXPW already, and would have had to push the envelope far too far if they answered with a "Yes".

     

    Thinking back, this has happened to me a few times over the years, and perhaps its true that any stock I would struggle to gain access to via a share offer was also one where I was already heavily committed.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Devils advocate, any proof of this???Will we ever know who bought and how many shares??

     

    Then we might get a different picture. This would be a great price to average down on,,imho
    But i guess as a shareholder i really don't know the rules and knowing who owns what might not be in the cards...
    1 Feb 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    With all due respect i don't buy Axion's management team is too conservative to play games...I believe they said NICE THINGS about Bernie Madoff as well. No disrespect intended. I agree with a few posters that this sale has a smell to it. The price, timing, and people given the opportunity to get involved if they chose to. 35 cents is killing some who have been married to this company a long time,

     

    This has nothing to do with me knowing the company, all to do with knowing human nature. Time will tell.. But it does make you think twice, at least i am...

     

    MAP
    3 Feb 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    Until you've walked in the shoes of a small company management team and sat in the room with investors you have no idea how difficult and complex the problems can be. Nobody has been married to this company as long as management and nobody on this Concentrator has an average price that exceeds about 50% of the price paid by management. Hell, my average is pretty close to $1.25 and some of the directors paid a good deal more.

     

    I've spent 32 years man and boy sitting at closing tables with small companies that were forced to make hard decisions to accept harsh terms from new investors or start the search all over. I'll stack that experience against your cynicism any day of the week.
    3 Feb 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    can you explain why you haven;t averaged down like the rest of the investors??? If you believe in this company and all their moves then maybe i don't undestand a person not averaging down..

     

    If it bothers you that i am looking at my investment portfolio , or you call cynicism , sorry but it is my decision, Please don;t tell me to sell. Tired of hearing that answer to people who question the companies moves..Thats a cop out.. I will bail if i think the time is right.

     

    That decision i will stack against anyones experience...
    3 Feb 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    The market crashed in 2008 and my business suffered because small companies quit hiring lawyers to write offering documents when the markets are tough.

     

    I'm a long way from the poor house but I don't have a half million in spare change lying around to average down with. If I did I'd have been an investor in the recent direct placement because when I write a check I want to see my cash hit the issuer's balance sheet.

     

    If you have any further questions about my personal financial life please contact me offline.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I thought you posted you would be far removed from being offered the opportunity to participate in that placement. Maybe i am misunderstanding that posting.

     

    I have no interest in your personal financial life, NO ONES BUSINESS. so no insults were intended...Again these are questions that might have been posted in over 10k of them. Of which i have no interest in reading all of them to try and find that needle in a haystack.

     

    But i do feel, like others, that sometimes a quick question and answer from those in the know help calm nerves. We should not looked down on...

     

    again, no disprespect intended..I just think some have a shorter fuse for some reason.

     

    MAP
    3 Feb 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    If you've paid attention the kind of unadulterated defamation I have to tolerate on Brand X and the foolish redundant comments I get on the main pages from electric drive advocates who don't understand the first thing about investing, you can see I how I might be a bit snappish about unduly harsh sounding questions and comments in what is supposed to be a friendlier forum. There are a number of trolls lurking out there who would love to turn this Concentrator series into the kind of cesspool you see in other forums. Those of us who care about this forum will be vigilant to protect it. I apologize if I've been overly vigilant with you.
    3 Feb 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    MAP
    "With all due respect i don't buy Axion's management team is too conservative to play games...I believe they said NICE THINGS about Bernie Madoff as well. No disrespect intended. I agree with a few posters that this sale has a smell to it."
    WAY OVER BOARD!
    You are not even close to engaging thoughtfully in discussing and digesting the past 2 days.
    Pure emotion.
    Madoff...REALLY?
    "No disrespect intended"...not really!
    3 Feb 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    MAG

     

    Re reading my comment i could see i wrote it too quickly. I NEVER meant or intended to connect Madoff and Axions board. That is my mistake...I should of refrained from making any comment today.

     

    The they say nice things about Madoff was meant to be some in the investment community!!!

     

    I did not mean to attack the board , however i just felt the Public offering could have been done differently and at a higher price. JP'S postings has taught me way more than i had a clue about.

     

    In hindsight i should have just kept my mouth shut, I WAS WRONG

     

    Map
    3 Feb 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5461) | Send Message
     
    HTL...you got any buy sell numbers for mid-day? Looks like a lot of buying going on to me...almost 2 m shrs. traded and ask now .49...my order never even had a chance.

     

    P.S. I think Maya & JLP bought the 10m shares...they soon gonna have a $2 m profit ! in a day maybe! LOL (just kidding)
    1 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    I wish! Unfortunately I'm the last person management would have contacted about this offering.

     

    The good news is that buyers in this kind of deal are usually pretty patient. It takes a long time to decide that you're going to take a $250,000 flyer on an OTC company and you don't generally play the game without having Axionista class expectations.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ditto. Even a desk clerk to this amazing blog didn't get preferred treatment.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    LT: Personally, I wait for things to settle out here. With the longer-term price targets I think we should see, a few pennies more or less won't make any difference, IMO.

     

    Trading blocks are more price sensitive, but even those I think I can wait.

     

    I don't consider myself sophisticated enough to have *any* reasonable guess during the midst of turmoil. So I can't offer anything here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    "I wish! Unfortunately I'm the last person management would have contacted about this offering."

     

    JP...This is the comment that has me confused,,,You just stated a few posts above that you would have been part of the new placement then i read this. Maybe you now understand my confusion.

     

    If not, then i am the one not getting this..I will figure it out!!

     

    MAP
    3 Feb 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    MAP,

     

    I don't mean to comment for JP but I think he made two distinct comments.
    1) He was not contacted by Axion and had no previous knowledge of the details of the placement. He would be the "last" person they would contact so as to not be in violation of SEC disclosure rules.
    2) When asked about his finances he stated that if he were to average down his shares he would likely do it as a private placement investor, not through the day to day trading. His block of stock is large and to average down he would need another large block.
    3 Feb 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    I'm the last person management would have contacted, but if I'd been sitting on a half million in cash I sure as hell would have been on the phone to them.
    3 Feb 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    Thanks for clearing it up for me...

     

    map
    3 Feb 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Added more at $.47... Now trading around $.49, and I think I'm out until I see where its going better. Exceeded my daily allowance already...
    1 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Off today's Big News Topic:

     

    "What we have here is a failure to deliver" :-)

     

    Although it took a distressingly long time to prosecute them ...

     

    SEC Charges Brothers With Short Selling Violations

     

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    2012-22

     

    Washington, D.C., Jan. 31, 2012 – The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged two brothers living in Chicago and New York with naked short selling for failing to locate and deliver shares involved in short sales to broker-dealers.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/z4POOd
    1 Feb 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2345) | Send Message
     
    PPS seems to be going asymptotic at $0.50.
    That's not all that bad for dropping that many shares on the market.

     

    Having running money for at least 2012 is absolutely necessary to assure potential customers that they aren't wasting their time carefully evaluating the PbC. Axion WILL be in operation when they are ready to issue purchase orders this year. It will also be able to full those orders.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    On January 6th John Petersen, in concentrator 43, said, "I tend to look at the 2009 private placement price as a solid indicator of fair value at the time. For my entire career big private placements have sold at 50% of the expected stabilized price of small free trading blocks. In my view, the private placement should have put a rock solid floor of $1.15 to $1.20 under the stock - e.g. fair value based on the amount paid by big purchasers with no expectation of liquidity.

     

    Since 2009 there have been several events that would have normally raised fair value into the $2.70 to $3.60 range. The price didn't happen because of the selling pressure, but the fair value increase did. Given that Axion is currently looking for more financing, I'd be discounting fair value by 25% or so in anticipation of the next financing round, but that still doesn't take me below $2.

     

    Then on January 11th, concentrator 46, John said, "I don't expect Axion's next placement to go off at anything close to a 50% discount unless the buyers agree to resale restrictions. The 50% rule of thumb I referred to is for large private placements in companies with limited liquidity. Axion has an effective registration statement for the offering, which means the next deal will be a public offering rather than a private placement. Axion also has a pretty high level of market liquidity which has built spectacularly since 2009. Under those circumstances a discount in the 20% range would be closer to the norm. "

     

    John, can you help me understand how today's announcement squares with the statements you made two or three weeks ago? What happened to make Axion's bargaining position with investors so much worse than what you thought a few weeks ago?
    1 Feb 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    It was a discount to the trailing volume weighted average. It's too bad we didn't get our 30 day weighted average up higher. Had the March statement not been coming up so quick maybe we could have gotten a .50 placement. Anyhow, many people would look at .35 as the floor and not expect profit taking until .70 and beyond.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    The transaction happend sooner than I'd hoped it would.

     

    The gut wrenching descent to $.27 in the fourth quarter would be enough to give any big investor pause. The double this month with short term prospects for another double in February created a lot of pressure for management to act rather than wait. Big investors who know they won't have an easy or fast exit are scared first by lack of liquidity and second by volatility. Axion's liquidity is better than it once was, but still about half of what it should be. Regardless of the underlying reason, the volatility in Axion's price over the last year would be enough to make anyone with a $250,000 checkbook think twice, negotiate hard and take a dramamine as they picked up the pen. I wasn't in the room for this deal, but I can well imagine the bare knuckle negotiating process.

     

    In a perfect world Axion would have had enough cash to wait till mid-year and give the price a chance to recover and stabilize before going out for more money. In the world they had they did the sensible and responsible thing and took enough money to create a 12 to 18 month runway when the money was available.

     

    Everybody who participated in that decision is in at an average cost of $1 to $2 and they all hate the idea of a discount far more than you do. We bit the bullet in 2009 because it was the responsible thing to do and it looks like management took another one for the team because it was the responsible thing to do. It beats the hell out of a Firefly scenario where the board rejected financing term sheets because they couldn't stomach the discount and then watched the company slide into bankruptcy because the money went away.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Mama said there'd be days like this. My consolation is that all the headshed insiders have much larger stakes than me, at much higher averaged prices. Their options are all at $1.50, including the recent big hire. Nobody likes a down round, but a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do. And TG just did. This money takes the company to within rifle range of the 2014 model year for new cars. Maybe grenade range. These may not be the terms we all had hoped for, but it's still true that a big cloud of uncertainty just got burned off. TG's rucksack just got a lot lighter, and his plate a lot clearer. I'm sure he's telling everyone in New Castle: "Okay everybody, we splashed that bogey. We live to fight another day. Now get back to work!"
    1 Feb 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. and I will console myself in that thought, though I disagree with the price received for this offering and worry that the wait time for share increases will be longer and the profit per share lower than I had hoped and expected. I also will take future comments from Tom Granville with a huge hand full of salt now that I know from personal experience that the words "that is no problem" may in fact mean it is a huge gigantic problem and I better be worried.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Please call TG. I think you will find that your previous conversations and the current offering are more consistent than you think. Many were afraid that a "going concern" issue could develop. When I first read your "no problem" I took it to mean that an offering would occur before the well was dry. However, I knew the market and not TG would determine the offering price.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Since you have spoken with TG in the past, as have others on this site, I would like to urge you (as another poster did earlier today)--- to call a member of management. As excellent as this board is, it can't possibly ease your concerns as much as a phone call to Axion would (or might). Then, get back to all of us.
    I fear that occasionally the intense discussions here might be well served by being supplemented with "supporting" information. I've noted in the past that I (with absolutely no knowledge in this field) have spoken twice with the CFO. It's easy to reach him, but I hesitate to do so since my background doesn't allow me to ask the best questions. But---you should.
    1 Feb 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    See my post below. I am trying to get more facts.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (555) | Send Message
     
    I'm more with Ricknplano on this one - maybe it's something in the water here in Dallas. Not so much about the debt vs. equity issue but what this deal says about the business. First, the 40 day average and the 10% discount are totally arbitrary and are merely the outcome of the agreed upon stock price of $.35.

     

    Obviously, these investors weren't overly impressed by TG's "orders in hand" statement. It would seem to be clear that Axion isn't expecting any significant news in the coming weeks although TG is reported to have said that he intended to close the capital raise after good news that would drive up the stock price.

     

    While an important step, I hope a 36 battery order from the Navy wasn't what Mr. Granville was counting on to boost the price. Going further, the stock price has performed almost exactly as JP predicted it would: Down steadily through year-end as SS sold out then solidly up in January. If TG needed to close the fund raise in January, there was no way he was going to be able to put the December lows out of the picture. He had to have known that.

     

    To me, it is just plain as day that Mr. Granville was expecting (and probably with a very high degree of confidence) something important to happen that simply has not happened and presumably isn't just a few days or weeks delayed.

     

    Now, there are many, many reasons for delays so this isn't the end of the world. Still, I am very, very disappointed. I am also concerned that we will have to endure yet another equity raise this coming fall.

     

    I will also go on to say that I am wondering what is going on here. There is so much going on at Axion that the failure to entice a large investor to invest in this story boggles my mind. Where's the road show?
    1 Feb 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Volume weighted averages are common in placements. You could argue why not 30 days instead of 40, but I'm sure this was negotiated with great vigor. Big investors like discounts, I too would rather have had .50 but I'll take 12-18 months of operating cash over not. Maybe there is delays but Axion has time on their side again.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    "First, the 40 day average and the 10% discount are totally arbitrary and are merely the outcome of the agreed upon stock price of $.35"

     

    Here we have the crux of the question. All these folks that just paid 35 cents, could have bought in well below that for virtually all the month of December. We don't know when these terms were set, ie how much lead time, and when the clock started ticking. A *lot* depends on that. But I believe the final 35 cent price was the dependent variable.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    It would be hard to buy 28M shares below .35. However, I would not be surprised to learn that the investors were rounded up before December and only now pulled the trigger since they too saw that the price was going to run from then.

     

    My only wish was that we had gotten to March before the placement and our weighted average could have been around .60 and thus we'd had a placement around .50. Anyhow that would have only been 8m shares less in the float. In the long run this thing either flies and all this is a distant memory, or sales don't come in and it's all moot. Those on this board are betting the former I assume. Anyone still expecting a slice of a Billion dollar storage market should not worry about having enough profit potential to make us all very happy.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1100) | Send Message
     
    I'm disappointed but not for the majority of the reasons listed above.
    We knew (from John's leadership) that they had the ability to do up to $18M and if they really wanted to another $10 on top of that for a total of $28M. The logic was we could figure out a bunch of the future based on the size of the offering.
    (going in reverse)
    $28M meant that they needed the money to build out a bunch of lines. This would look bad but be very good as they saw orders that justified the investment.
    $15-$20M would be enough for another year of spend plus some millions for a growth in the product lines. (my take would be for something like a NS order) You need to invest but you will not be profitable right away.
    $8-10M was the minimum and probably just enough to put off another round for a year. This means we don't have a line of sight for large scale orders from NS, BMW or others. Sure they may be smaller P-cube orders here and there but not enough to fix the fact that we lose a few million a quarter and hopefully do the next round at a higher price point.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Holty: "This means we don't have a line of sight for large scale orders from NS, BMW or others."

     

    Of course, it could also mean that given the unfavorable terms of this deal they wanted to go small. Get financing for this year behind them. BMW, NS announcements later this year will push the pps higher, giving them the ability to raise the additional capital for expansion on much better terms.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    You could be right and that might make sense, though I am still surprised at a Feb 1 financing if we really had liquidity to go through 2nd Q.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Wonder how much lead time the auditors (and lawyers?) required to ensure the going concern would NOT be part of the next quarterly report?
    1 Feb 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1100) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely. Sorry if I didn't explain that in my thoughts.

     

    I think if they thought they had a large order coming in 3-6 months from one of those guys you would have seen a higher amount simply to fufill the demand. NS isn't going to say "Here's an order for 50 cab's but we'll wait 90 days for first delivery so you can publish this, pump the stock and then do financing, build the line, etc. "

     

    I still expect a higher share price in the near and longer term. I'd love to see another dilution come soon as its a sign of a larger deal.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible Axion made this early minimal offer at a low price to retain the buyers who had negotiated before the run up in price? This would allow them to assure everyone of operating capital and remove the note of concern at the time of the next report.

     

    Then one of our major potential customers announces a deal, the stock takes off again, and the remaining shelf offering is sold at a much higher price. The original purchasers of the shelf offering agree to buy these shares at a higher price because they have already made a profit.
    1 Feb 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jveal: It's all speculation of course, but if I was TG, that's exactly how I would try to pull off financing and filling both future and current in-hand orders. I believe the $10M, rather than the full $18M, was very shareholder firendly, especially toward us Axionistas.

     

    If another $8 on top went through Jan. 31, I would likley have had to fire up 3 APCs today, rather then "just" two.
    1 Feb 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    I sure hope that this is a smart move by management and was done for all the right reasons, some of which may well be beyond our current thoughts.

     

    In my humble opinion another share sale without a decent sales announcement or a damn good story from TG would really spook folks. I am thinking that each passing day without news will increase the anxiety level of shareholders, even those who hope to be long term holders like me.

     

    I picked up another 7% today against my better judgement so as to reduce my total cost per share. I will not buy another share until I hear good news.
    1 Feb 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AB: Every single one of us Axionistas knew this dilution was coming. I agree with your second paragragh, wholeheartedly. Except for one aspect, and that is what happened today; buys us shareholders more time.

     

    The day by day stuff to me is largely irrelevant. Day by day stuff is all about when best to get in. It's the horizon I'm most interested in. Guessing for all of us, this is the much greater concern.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I agree with you and I fretted over the raise quietly for quite some time. As the share price started to move back up and the price of Vani's options were revealed, I thought that the very low down round had been avoided. Nevertheless, one more short-term hurdle has been overcome. My biggest fear with Axion is not that it will go out of business or fail, but that the need to take on additional down rounds before things really get going will make the capital structure such that it will be difficult for Axion to achieve the success that I believe it otherwise could.

     

    The maximum allowable shares outstanding was raised from 125M to 200M. I would hate to see it go above that, but that all depends on whether material sales come and they can increase the price per share for further raises.
    2 Feb 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • LASF
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Lurker here. FWIW Stefan's comment sums it up for me.
    2 Feb 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    I placed a call to the company to ask some questions. I would like my comments here and elsewhere to be as fact based as possible and not speculate on the unknown. However, as might be expected, no one was available at the moment (I tried Charles Trego and TG). I then sent an email with my main concerns and asked for a return call. I told them I have been critical of the offering price and what, to me, it implies, so that they would know my point of view before calling me back, if they do. I also said their comments to me would be reflected in my comments to this blog.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Excellent----look forward to your input, Rick.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    RICK

     

    Not sitting by the phone waiting for that call are you??

     

    MAP
    3 Feb 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Horshoes, hand grenades, and bazooooka rounds. I think you nailed it.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    As recently as January 18 AXPW closed at .4350. Even though share price took a hit today, if you had told me on December 30th, when price closed at .27, that the share price on Feb. 2 would be at .46 with the stock offering done, I would have been elated. Not to say share price might not go lower, but am exceeding the expectations I had at New Year.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Couple of thoughts...

     

    Maybe the offering was 10 and not 18 million because we have the balance covered through purchase orders. Otherwise, why not just take the hit all at once and be done with it.

     

    Maybe there was no news release before the offering because the price ran up on it's own without it. Makes me wonder if the "news" was going to be mention of Axion during the NS conference call. Timing would have been about right.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    CoryM,
    John has claimed that there was a limit to the number of shares they could put out at one time, that was dependent on a percentage of the current float. I thought it was closer to 22M shares than 28M shares, but I'm guessing that's why they didn't/couldn't do a larger offering. Also, maybe they are still hoping for better terms by the end of the year for the next offering.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    In 2009 the stock was over a buck the day before the 57 cent private placement was announced. Eventually the market price dropped down to, and then below, the placement price. So I would not be surprised to see it drift downward, absent any news. And given management's willingness to sell at 35 cents, I do not expect any news soon.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Rick, that's what I've seen on other small-caps. I too expect a drift down *sans* catalysts.

     

    Being a bottom-feeder, I relish the thought *knowing* that the "strong hands" here that comprehend the potential will not be losing money because they won't be selling.

     

    I *may* be the "greater fool", but I'm betting not.

     

    I expect this initial move down to take at least a few days to finish. Could be wrong - at this price I don't believe "buyer exhaustion" is in play. At the $0.60 area I believe it was. So maybe it won't drop much in the next few days.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    I sold 1/3 of my holdings at 47 cents. Obviously, since I kept 2/3, I am not sure about it, but I expect a drift down to around 40 cents or below. I will buy back in at 40 cents or so. If I am wrong I still have 2/3 or about 100,000 shares. If I am right I can average down a little.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    I think it was a good move as there's a very good chance that you'll end up with some lower-priced shares. Reduced risk and positioned for another opportunity, all in one move.

     

    I've come to appreciate dry powder as a valuable finite resource that one has to husband to get the maximum yield (still working very hard on that results part). ATM, I'm about 83% powder and been doing some short-term trades to increase it prior to the "sell in May and go away" opportunities.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    Not a bad plan. A few here will be making lemonade of the current situation. =)

     

    I'd think a huge gap up is unlikely in the near term. I bet many others will average in now having missed the December lows. It's also a good time for the old guard to bring their dollar cost below $1.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    For those here who know more than me: Does the number of orders necessary to reach break-even exceed the current electrode and/or battery production capacity? In other words, if TG is confident that over the next year the company will attain orders in sufficient magnitude (but not appreciably more such that they would need expansion) to reduce their cash burn to near zero, then perhaps the 8-10 million range just raised was chosen for that very reason. -- If it's the right amount of money to get them to shore, then it would not be advisable to raise more at this bruising price. Just enough at this time was probably the governing idea. But he also wouldn't want to be right back in this same position a year from now either. If he really feared that, he probably would have pushed for more. I'm thinking that If "take the money" is the rule, then "but only take the right amount of money" must be the corollary.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    481086,
    It was always my understanding that to break even they would need at least three electrode lines and all the battery lines making PbC batteries, or at least some kind of battery. I could remember wrong, but that's what stuck in my memory.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    So I'm going to ask some stupid questions because I've been trying to read the new 424B5 SEC filing and I'm not understanding something. The document reads like a prospectus for new inverstors, which I get, but to me it reads like the stock hasn't already been placed with investors yet who have been pre-arranged? Am I just reading it wrong?
    The other thing that it definitely "does" say is that, even with this funding, Axion won't have enough funding to get them through the year and will need to raise more money by Dec 2012. So if all of this was to eliminate the need to have to put in a warning in the next report that the company is still at risk, I don't see where this finanacing fixes that?
    1 Feb 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (319) | Send Message
     
    good point.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lab: It's been insane an day, because two other REE stocks I hold also had major announcements today. My mouse forefinger is already requesting union wages with benefits. ;-)

     

    Did you already link in the SEC 424B5 filing? Did I miss it? I'd like to give that a read through, bleary-eyed and all.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    it is on the Axion web site.

     

    http://bit.ly/wuXm5a
    1 Feb 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, jlyleluce.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    No, sorry. It came in my email from Axion. I assumed everyone else already got it as well. Here's the link:

     

    http://bit.ly/yn55Va
    1 Feb 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, Lab. Already loaded for tonight's homework. Just another 52 pages to read!
    1 Feb 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    This is highly interesting. 9+ million dollars should buy roughly 4 quarters, which, if it were being applied solely to the electric bill and payroll, should get us through 2nd quarter CY 2013. But they're stating to only end of 4Q CY 2012. 6 months early. To me that sounds like perhaps they plan to buy a Gen2a or even a Gen3 line. That could be good.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    481086
    Don't forget the new hire. He will need to be paid plus staff, travel etc.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Albert, I'm not forgetting, but he's 20K signing bonus, 225K a year... maybe that again in benefits, an EA, travel? So all told 500K for a year? certainly not more than twice that. Is that unrealistic?
    1 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
     
    I think you're referring to the 2nd paragraph on page S-4. Anyhow that prose strikes me as similar to the "language" used in the last 10-Q. I don't think Axion expects to burn 9M dollars in the next 10 months. Maybe others can clarify.

     

    http://bit.ly/x40Wuz

     

    "Our business may not be able to continue as a going concern and we will need to raise additional capital to continue operations
    beyond December 2012. We believe that our current financial resources will support ongoing operations, working capital, and capital expenditures through the second quarter of 2012. We will not be able to continue operations beyond December 2012 without raising additional financing. "
    1 Feb 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    We should probably take this to the next concentrator, but yes, that is the language (I believe) to which we are all referring. I don't want to read too much into it, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. But it is there. Is it basically pro forma? Or clue to something else? 9M dollars in 10 months does sound excessive, but 6M + 3M for a new electrode line doesn't, and is a tantalizing thought...
    1 Feb 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2345) | Send Message
     
    The company has to buy lead, carbon, misc. chemicals, separators and battery cases. I don't know the markup but it does cost money, as in material, to make batteries.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    True, but 9 million bucks is still a whole lot of money, and it's not like these batteries take months to make (like say airplanes). I would think revenues from sales would replenish COGS without a huge lag. Plus, if we're selling so many of these batteries that we need to buy copious stuff to make them, well that's the high-quality problem we all want to have. ;)
    1 Feb 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    My take:
    Having cash on hand provides management with improved flexibility and added responsiveness. Offerings are time consuming and probably like getting a root canal.

     

    I suspect the cash they just raised is sufficient to pay for the ramp-up for high probability short-term business opportunities. We know they have a lot of irons in the fire. I suspect management is thinking the terms will be better on the next deal because of intervening sales and product announcements.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30418) | Send Message
     
    The root canal analogy is about right, but stock offerings are always done without anesthetic.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Hurts like hell today. Let's you keep eating tomorrow. ;)
    1 Feb 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    When thinking about ramp-up, I started to wonder about shelf life for these batteries. Do they have a substantial shelf-life (time in storage with no activity)? Are they building inventory? Or are they just building electrodes which I assume would have a very long shelf life?
    1 Feb 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    FPA, I/m not certain but I believe they have both lower leakage and don't suffer the deterioration since there's a carbon negative electrode, rather than lead, which is where the deterioration occurs. Also, less acidity.

     

    It's been discussed before, IIRC, and it was concluded that a simple charge-up puts it back in 100% new status.

     

    Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    That was my understanding as well. The problem of storing more than 6 months is mainly due to the logistics of then having to take the time to recharge all those batteries in storage. One would assume the chargers in the plant that would be used are already being used to charge new batteries being constructed, so you have to either slow down production to charge the old batteries or figure out some kind of rotation schedule. At some point I'm sure it would become very logistically challenging, which is why it's best to not have too large of a supply just sitting around waiting for orders.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next Concentrator, two in one day!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Feb 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall that ever happening before.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FPA: As noted at the top of the next Concentrator. You can also find the answer to your battery shelf life question in the next Concentrator, as well.
    1 Feb 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Jon S...your frustration understandable...this is a good place to vent...but there are times you say "it is what it is..."...frustration..... in context...move on.
    Rick...your assessment and frustration also understandable...diffe... of opinions can be very healthy...but I would suggest you not "hang it" on John P.
    I OWN my own decisions...we all do...read...assess...a...
    what John P/Maya write...and just as important, what commenters add re due diligence.
    Just sayin'...
    2 Feb 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4210) | Send Message
     
    magounsq > "I OWN my own decisions...we all do."

     

    :-) Well, not everyone admits it. Just ask Obama or Gingrich.
    2 Feb 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Magounsq,

     

    agreed
    2 Feb 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    or any other politician for that matter.
    Except for Ron Paul who I admire, but would never vote for, all the politicians act and sound the same.

     

    Again, I ask that we keep attacks on the political system to be just that., Please try and be respectful to those that try and serve this country in their own way. This country has many enemies. Our own politicians do not intend to be our enemies.
    Axionistas have many more lithium lovers to be worried about than well meaning politicians that invariably screw up government.

     

    D-INV- Please note that I did see the smiley face you put out. I appreciated that.
    2 Feb 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "Our own politicians do not intend to be our enemies".

     

    Accidental Enemies? I'm going to have to mull that one over in light of the number of times that prohibitions against insider trading by our congressmen and congresswomen has been rejected by that august institution.

     

    Just sayin. And that's not the most egregious "crime" they've committed on us. But I don't engage here as it's a waste of energy, for the most part, and time almost totally.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I am against laws that favor one group over another. One class over another. One specific employee over another.

     

    The laws protecting any elected representative over their constituents should be carefully scrutinized. I have no problem with that and will be the first to jump on the bandwagon. Who will be the first person running for office to be for that? That is the question.
    2 Feb 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    btw...for you spell checkers out there...I tried to edit 2ce for spelling...to no avail!
    I suspect others run into the same thing...
    2 Feb 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
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