Mayascribe's  Instablog

Mayascribe
Send Message
Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 63: Beginning Feb. 7, 2012, Axion Power Direct Offering Part 6 159 comments
    Feb 7, 2012 9:02 PM
    Axion Power Announces Registered Direct Common Stock Offering of up to $10.0 million

    NEW CASTLE, Pa., Feb. 1 , 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW) ("Axion" or "the Company"), the developer of advanced lead­carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to sell an aggregate of not more than 28,571,429 shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the "Shares"), at a price per share of $0.35 for gross proceeds up to $10 million, before deducting placement agents' fees and estimated offering expenses. The share price for this transaction was pre-determined by calculating a 10% discount to market using the Company's volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP).

    (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100119/AXIONLOGO)

    The Shares are being offered directly by Axion pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement previously filed with, and declared effective by, the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 14, 2011. The Company anticipates that the net proceeds from the offering will be used for working capital, capital expenditures and general corporate purposes. The closing of this offering is expected to occur on or about February 3, 2012, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

    Philadelphia Brokerage Corporation and Emerging Growth Equities, Ltd served as co-placement agents for the offering. When available, copies of the prospectus supplement and the accompanying base prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from the Securities and Exchange Commission website at http://www.sec.gov.

    This press release does not and shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any of the securities, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration under the securities laws of any state or jurisdiction.

    About Axion Power International, Inc.

    Axion has developed and patented a next generation energy storage device that won the prestigious Frost & Sullivan Technology Award for North America in the field of lead-acid batteries. According to Frost & Sullivan, Axion's new PbC batteries have "the potential to revitalize the lead-acid battery industry by breathing new life into an established technology that is not well suited to the requirements of important new applications like hybrid electric vehicles and renewable power."

    Axion Power International, Inc. is the industry leader in the field of lead-acid-carbon energy storage technologies. Axion believes this new battery technology is the only class of advanced battery that can be assembled on existing lead-acid battery production lines throughout the world utilizing Axion's proprietary carbon electrodes. Axion's future goal, after filling their plant's lead-carbon battery production capacity, is to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry.

    For more information, visit www.axionpower.com

    Forward-looking Statements

    Certain statements in this Press Release are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risk factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include the risk for the Company to complete its development work, as well as the risks inherent in commercializing a new product (including technology risks, market risks, financial risks and implementation risks, and other risks and uncertainties affecting the Company), as well as other risks that have been included in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are available at sec.gov. We disclaim any intention or obligation to revise any forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, financial estimates, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

    ####

    This is a troll free zone. Any disruptive comments will be removed.

Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (159)
Track new comments
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from jakutz:

     

    Hi Map, I will go through each of your points.

     

    1. Axion is most certaintly speaking with other rails. This is from their most recent 10-Q Note at the end the success of the testing with NS has allowed them to expand to other end-users and locomotive integrators. Also, on the last cc Granville said they are speaking with other Rail yards.

     

    "Norfolk Southern (“NS”) has accepted delivery of large strings of PbC batteries to further their platform testing. These batteries are now installed in the NS platform facility and are under test. We are performing duplicate testing in New Castle, as well as comparison testing with other battery technology. As part of our agreement with NS, Penn State University is also performing string testing on our PbC batteries. To date the data from all battery system testing confirms PbC batteries are performing as anticipated. The success of this testing is allowing us to expand the locomotive application to include other locomotive end users and locomotive integrators."

     

    2. On the sales you don't want Granville the CEO handling all 1st tier sales in the markets they are testing in, that is a massive plate for anyone to handle as the CEO I don't see how he could handle all of that. You do want someone who has a history of dealing with 1st tier OEM's on sales at that level like Vani Dantam has.

     

    3. This is a concentrator for everyone's enjoyment. No one is "working" this concentrator for you or anyone else. I don't think anyone here owes anybody else a Q&A section or other ways to make it easier for people to get information they want. Through this concentrator and Bangs site you already have more prioritized public information on this stock than almost any other stock I know of in history...why are people asking for more from us concentrators? If someone gets around to a Q&A then great, but we all have lives here.

     

    4. Me too

     

    5. They have several first tier OEM's testing their product for a couple years now. I would say it is getting very close to time for them to develop a sales team. Vani was the beginning and a great addition.

     

    6. The outside placement price was not ideal, obviously. But it was a straight equity capital raise in a tough capital environment, in which their stock had been beaten down into the dumps just a few weeks prior. Only a month ago Axion was trading for a lot less than .35 so raising $10M at that price was not quite as bad as some have made it seem just because we sky-rocketed to .60 in 3 weeks. I am happy with the way they have raised their capital. Strength or weakness? Keep in mind they are an R&D company with very little revenue trying to move into commercialization. Anytime a company is in that position they don't have a ton of strength when it comes to raising cash. They just raised more cash than revenue they made last year, that is a big deal and does show some significant strength.

     

    Map, You have owned this stock for less than a month and you seem to be very impatient with everything that has happened in that time.

     

    They are not yet a commercial enterprise, they are an R&D company with a fantastic technology but only produced ~$10M in revenue last year. If you continue to try to judge their moves based on the idea they are already a commercial stage company with over $100M in revenue you are going to continue to be very disappointed.

     

    One of my first comments to you was that this can be a very slow and at times frustrating process that involves a whole lot of testing and demonstrations. Moving a disruptive technology into a full fledged commercial manufactured product is a very difficult process and it is going to take time. If you do not like what the company has done in the very short amount of time you have owned the stock then you may want to reconsider your investment
    7 Feb 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    D McHattie:

     

    Here (http://seekingalpha.co...) you implied that the sales process with auto OEMs could be several years long.

     

    A question for you or anyone else:
    What type of notice/disclosure would us investors receive along the way? Would they share a memorandum of understanding PR at the beginning of the deal, or would they keep it hush-hush until the new model was coming out of assembly? Put more bluntly, if it is a 2-3 year process from MoU to design to production to sales, what signals do we receive along the way and at what times?
    7 Feb 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In the battery space the sales cycle is very long and it starts when a potential customer learns that your device exists and says "That sounds interesting. Can you send me a couple units for testing?" After negotiating appropriate NDAs and agreements about the length of the testing period, sharing of test data and return of the sample devices for post-mortem evaluation by the manufacturer, you send the samples off and the process starts in earnest.

     

    The potential user's goal is to disqualify your device as quickly as possible, so no news is usually the best news, particularly if the agreements anticipate a multi-stage testing protocol and you move from one stage to the next. When the potential customer has done all the testing he thinks necessary, the meat of the sales cycle where you start negotiating things like volumes, prices and delivery schedules.

     

    At the 2010 European Lead Battery Conference in Istanbul, Renault gave a presentation explaining their normal 24-month testing cycle for conventional batteries from new suppliers. The first six months is devoted to in-house testing of the batteries themselves. If the batteries survive the first stage, the process moves on to more extensive testing of the batteries and detailed process and quality control audits of the manufacturer. Their goal is to disqualify rather than qualify, and the longer you survive the better your odds of survival become. There isn't anything that truly qualifies as "news" unit the process is completed and Renault issues a purchase order.

     

    If we look at BMW as an example, their PbC testing started in the summer of 2009. By the end of the year BMW was negotiating the terms of a second stage long term testing program. In September of 2010 testing had progressed to a point where BMW was willing to make a joint technical presentation with Axion at the ELBC even though their work had not been completed. Axion recently disclosed that BMW has moved their testing out of the lab and into vehicles, although the details are being kept quiet. By the time a battery makes it to vehicle testing, it's in the home stretch and has already survived the worst abuse the automaker can throw at it. The purpose of vehicle testing is to find out whether users can be creative enough to break something the engineers couldn't break.

     

    My sense is that we're finally getting into the meat of the sales cycle with BMW where the negotiations focus on product cost, delivery cycles, production capacity, supplier redundancy and a host of other factors that are mission critical to automakers. We know the PbC fits their technical needs, now the challenge is proving that Axion can satisfy their business needs. That won't be easy. My best bet is that BMW, or for that matter any automaker, will require Axion to partner with a larger manufacturer as a condition of a design win. Mercifully having a lock on the PbC technology and a tentative design win in hand will give Axion a strong position in partnering negotiations.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    While I don't want to be too long winded, Norfolk Southern is another good example of how the process works. The NS 999 was a high profile failure that had been built using top of the line AGM batteries from Enersys. The batteries simply could not stand up to the charge and discharge loads the switch locomotive demanded. Since NS really wants a battery solution for their urban switch yards, they started testing every battery solution out there, but this time around they had hard data on the load profiles that caused the first version to fail.

     

    By June of 2010 NS had concluded that the PbC was the best fit for their needs and hired Axion to build a new BMS for the NS 999. When the BMS was completed, NS began double redundant long-string battery testing in their shop, in Axion's shop and at Penn State. They've allowed Axion to discuss their plans to refit the NS 999 with PbC batteries and to build an over the road battery locomotive that will be used to hybridize a train. In recent industry presentations NS has spoken publicly about their expectations that the PbC will succeed where AGM failed. We're all waiting with bated breath for further news.

     

    Since NS is an end-user of batteries rather than a manufacturer that integrates batteries into another product, I think it will be far more likely to do business directly with Axion. As near as I can tell it has already decided to build at least two prototypes and put them to work in the field to find out whether yard crews can be creative enough to break something the engineers couldn't break.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Last part, I promise.

     

    The important thing to remember about the battery industry is that laboratory and rack testing provide more hard data than vehicle testing. Potential users can create bigger current loads and put much more stress on the battery than it will ever see in the field. So the field testing is almost fait accompli by the time the battery has gone through extensive laboratory testing.

     

    NS has spent two years testing the PbC to ensure that they don't have another embarrassing failure with the NS 999. Unlike the first time around, they have hard data on the loads and battery demands that caused AGM to fail. They've gone to the extreme length of double redundant testing and have once again moved the NS 999 to a poster child position in their public relations. They're speaking publicly about why they think the PbC will succeed where AGM failed. These developments are not "news" like a purchase order would be, but they're very clear signs that NS is very comfortable with the work they've done on the PbC and that purchase orders are only a matter of time.

     

    I've spent thirty some years working as legal counsel for small companies that want to do business with bigger companies. I've never seen a case where the larger company didn't muzzle the small company and tightly control what the small company said. I find the fact that BMW and NS have allowed Axion to say anything extraordinary. Until Axion, I have never seen a case where a first tier company publicly wrapped its arms around a technology before the developer of the technology had a product.

     

    BMW stood up in front of the entire lead-acid battery industry and said "The PbC alpha prototypes we've been testing for over a year have far better dynamic charge acceptance than any other lead-acid battery."

     

    Norfolk Southern started out testing everything including NiMH and lithium-ion. By June of 2010 they'd concluded the PbC was the best fit for their needs. The double redundant testing has progressed to a point where they're ready to move it from the lab to the rails.

     

    Both relationships are, in my experience, extraordinary.
    8 Feb 2012, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Very nice three part summary. The latest round of worry posting has gotten a few of the facts mixed up with some hope and dreams.

     

    Axion still has many business barriers to overcome. But they have time and potential to do just that. Thanks again for the muti-post.
    8 Feb 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding 3-part "tutorial" JP. The historical and "process" context fills in many gaps of knowledge I had. Many thanks for taking the time.
    8 Feb 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes I feel a lot like a kid who has just put away the Halloween decorations and is now focused on Christmas and Santa Claus. The adult in me knows these things take time, but that doesn't stop me from wanting them right now.
    8 Feb 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I also thank you John. Your impatience proves you're still a kid at heart, just like many of us here.

     

    That's always a good thing, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    John, probably it probably is as frosty in Switzerland right now as it is in Germany (~10°F). I was wondering if they're really putting the batteries in a fridge to extensively test for these kind of conditions or if this data can only be collected from vehicle testing?
    8 Feb 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Mercifully the Jura mountains protect us from the colder weather in Germany and we haven't seen subzero temperatures this winter, but I think anything below ~10°C is plenty nippy. Maybe it has something to do with growing up in Arizona.

     

    The climate chambers in battery testing labs are wonderful and allow the automakers to dial in whatever temperature and humidity conditions they want. By the time they get to vehicle testing they're primarily looking for human quirks and characteristics that might have been overlooked by the engineers.
    8 Feb 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    My new indian collegues don't like the weather either ;-)
    Good to know that this is tested. From reading what mostly IIndelco and KT have posted a while ago on the X board, the next step for an automotive order would be process and quality management and certification, right?
    8 Feb 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think that process started in early 2010 and was a big part of the motivation for the Gen2 line and the 2010 vintage management team expansion. Last year's ISO 9001 certification was a critical sign that progress is being made, but I don't expect any customer to hold an award ceremony or other newsworthy event when Axion meets their standards. It will just be one more mark on a long tick-list.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I concur. (p.s. - even though that means I agree ... I have to add a post to every concentrator so I get the new comment flags ... otherwise it doesn't work for me)
    8 Feb 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Someone graciously pointed out the Track Comments box ... and for some reason that doesn't seem to work on my system, but whenever make a comment and there are more comments, I get the orange box saying new comment.

     

    btw - I may be young, but I am definitely not the most computer savvy.
    8 Feb 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the details. I liked this part the most:

     

    "The important thing to remember about the battery industry is that laboratory and rack testing provide more hard data than vehicle testing. Potential users can create bigger current loads and put much more stress on the battery than it will ever see in the field. So the field testing is almost fait accompli by the time the battery has gone through extensive laboratory testing." (JP)

     

    So here's to hoping we're in the home stretch with BMW and NSC.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Just remember that these two races are marathons that started in the summer and fall of 2009. I vividly remember the 80 mile marker on the Hotter'N Hell Hundred Endurance Ride in August of 95. –http://www.hh100.org – Somehow being in the home stretch wasn't all that comforting at the time.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    I know what you mean. When I ran my first marathon, even seeing the finish line was not comforting at all, not until I finally passed it. Very apt analogy.

     

    I swore I wouldn't do another marathon again, but a few months later I forgot the pain and relished the adventure, and signed up for another.

     

    I suppose that's what you feel each time you get involved in an early stage company.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Working for small companies is very addictive. When a deal works the money comes in a distant second to the sense of accomplishment.
    8 Feb 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Three excellent reviews. Thank you very much
    8 Feb 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    FWIW: I feel pretty good being able to purchase more shares within .10 cents of the shelf offering price.
    8 Feb 2012, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    MAP... I do not believe AXPW "overpaid" for the marketing director. His base salary is only $250k...I guarantee in normal conditions he fetches north of $1m....His only hope for a lucrative package lies in the stock options...and they are priced at 3x higher than the stock was before the offering. I think he was a steal plain & simple. Show me anyone else TG could have hired that has the contacts & experience in the fields AXPW targets now?

     

    As to the options package, how many of us would not be thrilled with a stock price of $1.50? and that is just his break even point, he wouldn't even exercise them at that unless it is obvious what is coming. This guy has every incentive to see AXPW succeed and his take home pay after taxes certainly won't let him loaf around on the golf course....It's all about the stock options guys, and that makes him our "best friend" and says more about the future potential than all of our rambling on when we get big orders put together.
    8 Feb 2012, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    LT.....Very solid points, my only concern being an ex Recruiter is that he was hired while essentially unemployed. I would have loved to see him come aboard under different conditions. Maybe he turns down 250k???

     

    Having said that i hope you are right, time will tell if he was a steal. However you pointed out that 250k isnt a lot of money. It isn't if your company is making it.It is for him to pay his monthly bills right now. This has nothing to do with patience, it has all to do with building a sound team,

     

    BANG brought up trading Manning for Beck. Thats the point, Manning already proved what he can do for his team, WIN !!!, and i understand patience for that will be the key. I am just playing devils advocate here thats all. Remember Drew Brees was traded once!!!

     

    Look, my money is here also, and the company pounced at an opportunity which shows great smarts. I just hope the timing is right. If it is then we will see sales quicker having someone responsible for bringing it in. Whether it is a year or two down the road for contacts that he has...

     

    I might add that in the 20 years of being in that field MOST of the time the steals never lasted unless he saw great potential and felt HE was a missing piece. That is what i am banking on..
    8 Feb 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    MAP,

     

    I think your final point is a good one! Also, you are right, Brees was traded once, ....but ONLY once! ;-)
    9 Feb 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since the company has been openly talking about building a sales force since Q-1 of last year, I think Mr. Dantam was hired because he filled a specific need. The board has always thrown nickels around like manhole covers and I've never seen them add bodies that weren't badly needed. The guys are all about the team and adding people who will pull their own weight and then some.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    as to talking to other rails, I am sure they are...but I would not expect anything big for a while, maybe until someone has a working engine in the field to prove it's worth. I want to make a couple of points here to explain my opinion...

     

    1. There are only so many big rail companies, which I won't waste time listing, one of largest is Union Pacific - owned by Buffett...and he also basically owns BYD in china. (remember a while back the building 3 football fields long full of BYD batteries to do what our PC does?) So he is going to test, or give BYD every opportunity to develop a battery for his rails first. For Union Pacific to test, license, or install PbC in rail would be just huge. He would probably just buy AXPW outright and fold it into BYD first. (but we got to have sales & consistent revenues first) so "IF & WHEN" NS actually installs and begins to work the "999" and an OTR version then we can think about expanding the rail market...another gov't grant here would help whether you like it or not. It could just make our company.

     

    2. The pollution mentioned on the last concentrator is our friend. Think how nice it would be to bring a train in & out of stations on electricity with zero emissions? That might bring a "999" like engine on every train! Not to mention fuel savings. GE & CAT are going to be pushing this new multi-engine concept hard and that is where the first $$$$ are being spent as evidenced by NS 2012 budget. So we are still an infant here. The EPA study may have delayed our first order, but back to the depot pollution they could turn out to be our best friend too. We already know rails are under pressure to clean their act up, so IF PbC can satisfy the EPA & Economics thru fuel savings then we have a home run.
    8 Feb 2012, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you may be over-estimating Buffet's interest in BYD. He only owns about 10% of the company. There's been a lot of talk that he might increase his stake, but I've not seen any reports that he has increased his stake.

     

    I think the best example of how rail applications might develop is the ill-fated Green Goat from Railpower Technologies. – http://bit.ly/sHlXQ2

     

    They built the prototype in 2001 and tested it for a couple years on the Vancouver docks, When they started offering it to the railroads, they booked orders for 175 units in fairly short order. They delivered about 60 units before battery problems became obvious and customers started demanding refunds.

     

    After the failures of the Green Goat and the AGM powered NS 999, the rail industry got very quiet about battery power. Now that NS has two years of PbC testing under their belts the NS 999 is returning to a higher profile position in their environmental and sustainability PR. These are all good signs that NS believes "the third time's the charm." We may not know much right now because NS and Axion are keeping the details under wraps, but I remain confident that we'll know a lot more by year end.

     

    When my kids were younger Santa became a hot topic of conversation around Halloween and he was an ever-present thought by Thanksgiving. While the kid in me wants the instant gratification of clarity today, I know that NS will make decisions in its own time and disclose them in its own time and all I can do is wait impatiently.
    8 Feb 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    JP is correct that Buffet only owns 10% of BYD. This gives him a foot in the door with a battery company. He owns 100% of Midwestern Electric, a large power utility provider, and a significant share of a major railroad.
    I can think of no other investor that could use the PbC to the same advantage as him. But that in no way indicates that he has any interest in Axion or a BYD - Axion connection..
    From a purely Nationalist attitude I hope the PbC can be manufactured in America and used here before any issues with a China connection occur.

     

    However, Buffet is not known for buying start up companies. His value investing approach is to buy well run producers of products that make a profit. He buys success. He does not invest in potential.

     

    I see why everyone keeps making the connection. He might end up as our best customer. But he won't be the Owner of Axion for awhile yet.
    8 Feb 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I was aware of all the above, especially Buffett's investment style and AXPW is probably not a fit for him yet. He only invested in BYD because of Charlie's request. I just used it as an example that things are not going to be easy there...and a big yes to futurist, Buffett could possibly stand to gain the most from PbC through both UNP & Midwest energy.

     

    JLP...patience is not my family long suit :) p.s. I sent you an email with something funny in it that you can share, I don't know how to post it. Sorta fitting tho. LOL
    8 Feb 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The cartoon was very cute but the words convey the message well.

     

    ELECTILE DYSFUNCTION: The inability to become
    aroused over any of the choices for President put
    forth by either party in the 2012 election year.
    8 Feb 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Got Votagra?

     

    http://bit.ly/xc3kq1
    8 Feb 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Buffet/Berkshire owns the BNSF (Burlington Northern Sante Fe,) not Union Pacific. Those two are big rivals and would probably be quite upset to be confused with each other!
    8 Feb 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Another Railroad related opportunity would be to replace the Lithium-based system of the SEPTA/Viridity "Wayside Energy Storage" project with a Power Cube. (E.g. http://bit.ly/A6DnCO )
    This is another case where they tried lead acid, which couldn't handle the charge acceptance required for recuperative breaking, so they chose Lithium for the pilot.
    When the project gets real and they have to re-evaluate the economics they will inevitably consider the PowerCube.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall ever reading that anyone had tried lead-acid for wayside storage because conventional lead-acid has never had good charge acceptance characteristics. The first time I read about the application was a supercapacitor based system that Maxwell was installing in Korea. I can't say for sure, but I'll bet that engineers never seriously considered lead-acid before deciding to test lithium-ion. Now that Viridity has some hard data on the PbC, there may indeed be a horse race.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I just noticed the article is from 2010. It says on the second page: "The first (-technical challenge-) is selecting a battery that can quickly absorb and discharge electricity, potentially for hundreds of thousands of cycles, Morelock says. Viridity is currently evaluating different battery technologies, such as lead acid (which is cheap, but not long-lasting) and lithium-ion (which is being developed by companies such as AltairNano and A123 Systems)."
    Today of course, Viridity knows about a battery system with high charge acceptance that can last thousands of cycles... at a reasonable cost.

     

    [Edit: you're right, they've probably discarded standard LA right from the start without even trying]
    8 Feb 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    F-kru-

     

    I posted something about this probably 30 concentrators ago when the first link between Axion and Viridity was announced in early December. I wanted to find everything I could on Viridity.

     

    They selected a LiOn battery from Canada iin the summer of 2011 for thsi project. I'm trying to get a contact there at Septa to discuss this further with me as I have a friend who is the manager for the city for bicycle infrastructure so he deals with SEPTA a bunch. Still trying and will let people know what I find out.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    clarification....I am NOT negative on AXPW. IMO, 2012 is the year AXPW begins to bring PbC to market. Everything points to that. (Rosewater, Viridity Energy, new marketing hire, PJM, PowerCube actually working now, whatever NS is doing, BMW has PbC in cars in the field)
    Even tho I don't think we hit the home run yet, 2012 is the year we begin to move away from all this "testing" and begin to put the PbC to work. 2013-16 we should see the fruits of all this frustration.
    The battery storage market is just too huge, if AXPW finds just one or two niche markets we are hugely successful. I believe they will and my money is where my mouth is.
    8 Feb 2012, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Also share their thoughts and I hope that happens.
    8 Feb 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    From all your previous posts I knew you were an Axionista. Never any doubt IMHO. 8-)
    8 Feb 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    No one has screamed about bringing an executive to head up sales and marketing at the officer level longer or louder then me the past year. I think Vani is perfect because of his experience and depth of knowledge and contacts in the industry. I'm not worried about his salary, I'm worried about sales in 2012. I think he's their best shot at being successful in bringing in sales in 2012 and that's all that matters. You don't grow by conserving sales and marketing expense. That's just slow death.

     

    I'm sure the Giants could have a "cheaper" quarterback than Eli Manning on the roster, but then they won a Superbowl with him. I'll happily trade you John Beck from the 'Skins for Manning. Beck would save the Giants a bundle of payroll money.
    8 Feb 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    BANG,,,But would Eli win a Super Bowl with the Skins??? It is a team that makes this company work!!!

     

    I did enjoy Sunday i might add,,,,,,

     

    MAP
    9 Feb 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Eli might win a Superbowl with the Skins if they could get two key suspended players off reefer for a whole year. If Grossman lines up under center for the Skins next year I'm changing the team I root for to the Giants. I need a NFC East team to root for against the Cowgirls twice every year.

     

    Expensive reefers too. Cost one of the players $1.5M in game checks the dumb A$$.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    Grossman's name kinda fits him...lol...
    9 Feb 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/7/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 234,976, 178,452, and 0 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 413,428. Buy:sell ended at 1.32:1 and buy:(sell+unknown) at 1.32:1.

     

    Recall a couple things I posted earlier that *seems* to confirm my suggestion that we would see at least $0.42 again and, I believe, $0.3x.

     

    Before the share issuance, I suggested that we were entering a short-term consolidation. Look at the price run from 1/23 to 1/26 along with the buy:sell and volumes. Look at how they trend after that *prior* to the share issuance announcement of 2/1. Volume flattened out, price began to drift downward and buy:sell began to weaken. There was a blip in the buy:sell 1/31, but notice the short sales percentage for that day dropped back into normal range after being somewhat elevated. Recall that our normal is ~32% to ~36%. I've not yet identified a strong relationship, but I'm working on seeing if their is one.

     

    Now, we get the shares issued on 2/1. As one might expect, buy:sell is strongly negative (I use buy as positive, sell as negative). Folks see decent prices as a result and snap up the bargains, indicated by good buy:sell ratios. Notice how the lows are steady but the highs are coming down in the few days since even as volume is fairly steady. This suggests the "supply line" (the resistance suggesting how low sellers are willing to go as buyers become loathe to go higher) will continue downward. That's not even considering the additional supply which *might* be coming into the market.

     

    Note also how the short sale percentage moved from low on 2/3 to high to low again. The 2/7 percentage says the market-makers have shares showing up backing their prior short sales. Remember that market-makers (generally) work "backwards": instead of buy low and sell high, they sell high and buy low. So they (naked) shorted shares related to received sell orders at higher prices and now (may still) have (some of) those shares that they bought at lower prices to release into the market.

     

    On the TA front, we *may* be forming a "bear flag". I'm uncertain as normally the "pole" would be several days at least. We've only got a two-day "pole". But the rectangle (also a parallelogram seems to signal the same) forming, the "flag", is considered a bearish indicator. This is supported by weakening in all but two the oscillators: RSI, MFI and money flow, momentum, and ADX and related. Only the accumulation oscillator is still in positive territory, but it has flattened the last two days. The full stochastic is low but turning up, but this may just suggest, since it is quite low (but not overbought), that the downward pressure is not quite as strong as it had been.

     

    Last, the last 4 days of trading has exhibited no consistent pattern of intra-day rise or fall. Only Tuesday had a sustained pattern of generally falling highs throughout the day.

     

    123 Vol 0199038, Sht 126503 63.56% LHC 0.4752 0.505 0.4950 b:s 9.42:1
    124 Vol 0677878, Sht 352177 51.95% LHC 0.4810 0.590 0.5400 b:s 5.06:1
    125 Vol 0330462, Sht 195966 59.30% LHC 0.5500 0.599 0.5850 b:s 3.20:1
    126 Vol 0303847, Sht 164697 54.20% LHC 0.5700 0.640 0.6400 b:s 2.54:1
    130 Vol 0298501, Sht 097424 32.64% LHC 0.5800 0.629 0.6220 b:s 1:1.10
    131 Vol 0375251, Sht 207923 55.41% LHC 0.5800 0.619 0.6179 b:s 2.59:1
    201 Vol 2476749, Sht 948628 38.30% LHC 0.3800 0.550 0.4700 b:s 1:1.20
    202 Vol 0584698, Sht 181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.480 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    203 Vol 1019813, Sht 235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.469 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1
    206 Vol 0392838, Sht 202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.465 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    207 Vol 0413428, Sht 094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.465 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1

     

    MHO, experimental and learning,
    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if a bear flag applies here. If you deduce the meaning of a hypothetical bear flag, on average you will find some highly negative news creating the pole, followed by a return to a resistance level supported by flippers looking for a bounce. When the bounce fails to materialize and enough "even money" people have given up, then it falls another leg.

     

    Now in AXPW, our crash is caused by illiquidity and a gut reaction to what is actually positive news. I think most of us here on the Concentrator are still pleased with the result and have no loss in faith in the long term prospects of the company. Basically, we're not itching to get out. Secondly, 42c is not some resistance line but where clearly people have decided it was an attractive price to get in. I think very few people actually have an average at 42c. The reason selling stopped there is not because they hit their average, but because they believe shares are cheap.

     

    As for the lower lows intraday, it is because this is a low volume penny stock. The spread alone ensures that it will fall a couple pennies intraday. If there is a single sell on bid, the price will be taken down to 43c or so.

     

    Thus, as long as nobody on this Concentrator panics and sells his entire holding, I don't see a second leg down. Given the research we have here, I don't believe it's likely to happen. In the end, the price is a self fulfilling prophecy. The Concentrator has enough people here that the price will go wherever we go. That gives me comfort.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I have a last thought for the moment on Vani. Someone has to bring in a deal that creates some excitement in the market and pushes up the stock price significantly before the next capital raise. If Vani pulls that off he will have earned his money in spades.
    8 Feb 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I may be wrong, but I think today is far too early to even be thinking about another capital raise, much less talking about one. Let's at least let the check clear before launching the next round of obsession 8-)
    8 Feb 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    The point of my remark relates to the value of paying Vani 250K year when cash is relatively tight, not the next capital raise. However, it is also true that anything he accomplishes that pushes up the share price significantly is worth a lot more than his salary on the next capital raise.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    I much prefer the train of thought that Vani is so good that there never has to be another raise! ;-)
    9 Feb 2012, 03:10 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    That 11 PbC lines for $50M capital raise is going to occur someday and the day it is justified and happens will be the happiest day of my recent life!
    9 Feb 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    HTL> I had a buy in lurking at .43 this AM. Then I read your statement "Recall a couple things I posted earlier that *seems* to confirm my suggestion that we would see at least $0.42 again and, I believe, $0.3x.".

     

    Since I am averaged at $1.00 in one of my accounts (the other at .48) I cancelled the buy in case you are right. I want to get that $1 avg account down to something reasonable. Got to stretch my limited powder as far as possible. No harm in waiting. Willing to wait and see if you are right. If not, meh.

     

    Stock came out of the gate this AM like a quarter horse volume wise. Hmmmmm...
    8 Feb 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Today's action, ATM, is significant in that we have now put in a new low ($0.42) that breaks support of the last three days. This now matches the trend of the (*slowly*) falling highs.

     

    $0.42 might hold today, and another day or two, or might not because that was also the low of 2/2, after the share issuance.

     

    If it doesn't, next *minor* support is $0.40/$0.41. Those are minor levels because they are not at inflection points, but highs during a consolidation (essentially sideways trading for 12 days) during a continued down trend.

     

    But, that will also be a potential "psychological" support area. So can't really hazard a guess as it ought to take a couple days at least to approach that level *unless* some of the new buyers are flipping *or* some of the newer retail investors get spooked.

     

    I'm going to feel comfortable with adding *anywhere* below $0.42, in small increments, JIC.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... Patience????
    8 Feb 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    My powder supply is pretty dang small. I want as many shares as I can get. I'm in no rush. I put in a GTC at .41 (low enough) and I will let the market worry about timing. I'm riding with HTL on this one for a while. Today is my afternoon off caring for my mother. Got to get scrubbed up and outta here. I'll check in at a coffee shop.
    8 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    I can not remember if it was during the CC or on the phone with me when TG discussed the option to work with other railroads. I remember him saying that NS initially had exclusive rights to the PbC if they made certain purchases by certain dates. NS missed those performance points and that allowed Axion to start discussions with other railroads. TG said NS was not happy about Axion moving to competitors but as TG said, they cannot stop us since they did not perform as required to continue the exclusivity agreement.

     

    I am wondering if there might be some irritation by NS about Axion talking with competitors and that irritation manifests itself in slowing down the process. Just speculating here, with no facts other than the slower than expected NS actions. Might just be that slow is the NS normal and missing agreement targets is also normal for them. Does anyone have better insight on this?
    8 Feb 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Under Federal securities laws, placement agents are potentially liable for every penny invested if there's a material error, omission or mis-statement in the documents given to investors. That means they take their due diligence obligations very seriously.

     

    The Norfolk Southern relationship is a critical documented aspect of Axion's business. Based on decades of experience in similar deals I am certain that the offering would not have gone to market until the placement agents had a frank and detailed discussion of the Axion relationship with executives of Norfolk Southern. I am equally certain that the offering would not have gone forward if the placement agents had any reason to be concerned after their discussions with NS.

     

    The same can be said for BMW, Viridity and the flooded battery customer.

     

    The fact of the closing is the single strongest indicator there is that things are on track and proceeding at a normal pace.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Had one of these relationships not checked out, what would have Axion's options been to continue with the placement? Would they have to disclose a relationship termination or would we simply have ran out of cash come summer?
    8 Feb 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If there had been a material error, omission or mis-statement, the placement agents would have required a correction to the offending documents as a condition of going forward with the placement at a minimum. If it was really major, the deal wouldn't have happened and Axion might have run out of money. Mercifully everything went forward which tells me that everything's on track.
    9 Feb 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    Great. It sounds like we can assume the NS and BMW (maybe GM too?) relationships are still moving forward as many have speculated on this board. It's good to know that things can't just "stop" behind the scenes without us getting the true 411. I take it that "no news is good news". Sometimes I wonder if we Axionistas create our own worries by trying to figure out things which will reveal themselves in time (like the purpose of piled batteries and/or why the NS 999 hasn't moved in its yard).
    9 Feb 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's the nature of nano-cap investors to worry that they have less than perfect information or something might go wrong. So as soon as we see a delay, or something that could be interpreted as a delay, we start looking for reasons and imagining the worst case scenario.

     

    Over the years I've found that I only have two movie directors in my head – Walt Disney and Irwin Allen. I've also learned that things are never as great as I hope they will be or as bad as I fear they might be. That's why it's important for me to watch how managers behave over time. While past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, you can bank on the idea that people behave consistently.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    We haven't spoken about this in a while, but would anyone know when Quercus would run out of stock if we keep on having a volume between 300,000 and 400,000 a day? I remember someone estimated they'd be out of stock by end of March but we were having many days with over 1,000,000 in volume when that was estimated. I'm just curious.
    8 Feb 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The last report from Quercus said they have 2,530,351 shares left. Since they haven't reported any sales since January 13th, I have to assume they're sitting on the sidelines for a reason, although I would not want to guess what that reason might be.

     

    When Quercus was selling it typically represented 10% of daily volume. Axion's current 50-day average volume is 575,000 shares a day. If Quercus sold at a rate of 57,500 shares a day it would be gone in 44 trading days, or a hair over two months. Quercus was a problem when it had three times the stock, Special Sits had a comparable number of shares and Axion had half the daily trading volume. With Special Sits out of the picture and much higher trading volumes, Quercus is simply not a big deal anymore.
    8 Feb 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1702) | Send Message
     
    From Renewable Energy World, signs of a market for residential solar with storage: Kyocera to Launch Solar with Li-Ion Battery storage for homes in Japan.

     

    http://preview.tinyurl...
    8 Feb 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A friend of mine returned to Switzerland from a year in Japan shortly before the Fukushima disaster. He tells me that rolling blackouts that take neighborhoods offline for an hour or two a day are not uncommon. So it looks like there may indeed be an additional benefit to residential storage in the Japanese market. It will be fascinating to see how that market develops.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Just wait until this summer. They are going to be taking more nuclear plants off starting in the summer (nice timing) for maintenance and inspection. what I have seen is fuzzy but its expected that a few reactors will not be brought back online making the issue even worse.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    If Japan truly wants to move towards more "green energy" in the form of windmills and solar PV they may have no choice but to depend on distributed storage down to the household level. Adding storage down at that level isn't very efficient given the integration costs of millions of (tiny) 5-20kWh battery systems. But if it's done with private money and big tax write offs, it might work.

     

    If that is the way they go, Axion has a multibillion dollar market opening in Japan. Of course, the Japanese government will most likely only subsidize home grown battery companies.
    A Japanese partnership for Axion? Why not?
    9 Feb 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I appreciate your in-put here, and am amazed at your insights for only investing for a short time span,5 years?
    The other side of the AXPW coin here, I think the share price is holding up very well today. We had almost 300k shares in the first hour. (not sure about double count). This got me to wondering,,, If TG spoke with some insti type people about the shelf, is it possible that some didnt get as much as they wanted during the offering, and intend on getting their fill in the weeks that followed the offering.? Justathought.
    8 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Amish: I'm definitely the wrong person to hazard a guess on that "if TG spoke ..." question.

     

    As to price holding up, I don't expect any catastrophic moves in it, intra-day. This is a slow grind process.

     

    For example, prior to 11:05 the buy:sell was positive. After a time it weakened and went negative at 11:04:55 on a 33K trade @ $0.44, as of 13:27, the latest I can see (15 minute lag on streaming trades), the buy:sell is now 1:1.1. That's not bad yet. But we've been spending most of the day in the lower regions of today's range. I haven't counted or anything, but since the flip negative, seem to be mostly $0.44 or lower - $0.435, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if someone already commented on the final stock placement numbers. Axion received approx. $9.4mil gross and $8.6mil net. That suggests to me that they placed only 94% of the max number of shares, which, if true (maybe I've got my calc's wrong) suggests there are no shut-out investors looking to get in.
    8 Feb 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    could be one of the cats strayed at the last minute?
    8 Feb 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Cats do that sometimes, particularly if the market zigs when they want it to zag.
    8 Feb 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Been there. On one deal, the agent said that some checks did not arrive in time. On another, an investor was not able to raise the expected funds in time for the closing. But, someone else usually took their place. Not the best sign that they weren't able to fill the order here. Oh well, yet another buying opportunity for open mkt purchasers like us.

     

    Hey John, when do you think Special Sits will file their holding stmt, so we can confirm or deny that they're all the way out?
    8 Feb 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Their year-end holdings report is due by the 14th of this month and they're usually a couple days early because the form is pretty simple.
    8 Feb 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The desk clerk is back, folks. But with only a temporary line restored.

     

    Of the four people who were working for Comcast yesterday, only only spoke English, and he HAD to be able to speak "Mexican."

     

    The guy who could speak English, lied right to my face, saying Verizon did not indicate where my FIOS ran underground.

     

    What? Isn't a line painted International orange a bright enough color?

     

    ####

     

    I was able to pick up some comments posted last night and this morning--the worries, the impatience, the frustations of Axion not soaring right now.

     

    I'm in the other camp. I'm relaxing in the easy chair, snacks within reach, just waiting to learn which big name players (that's plural) my team is going to sign. Almost every obstacle and hurdle has now been cleared. The season opener is so close I can taste it.

     

    We got money. We got the biggest players in several industries intrested in signing with us. Most of us have bought great seats at cheaper prices than the original owners have.

     

    I'm watching the stadium fill (with retail investors).

     

    If I were to sum up in one word what more is required, that word would be: patience.

     

    Just a few more commercials to watch, a few more guesses and speculations by the chatterheads (think Joe Morgan, Oral Hershieser and Chris Berman) to endure.

     

    Just a little more patience, folks. Just a little more patience...

     

    Soon the Ump is going to step behind home plate and say, "Play ball!"
    8 Feb 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Odd behavior today ... a fair number of pairs of 100 share "lots" going off at the offer.
    8 Feb 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    From what I've read, that's one of the signs that the market-maker is doing his thing. Probably because the buyers and sellers have ceased "negotiating" a bit and the MM only makes money on liquidity. These little trades are supposed to be signs that he's trying to get folks to move.

     

    I don't know, but sounds reasonable.

     

    On CPST, it's the opposite - the MM pecks the bid all day long and then price drops on big volume and comes back up as some big buy order is satisfied, I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    When the market maker wants the price up, it will do 100 share trades at ask, and keep raising. That also keeps shares moving orderly, as an uptick would prevent a panic sell.

     

    Remember the market maker not only specializes in the stock, he can also see the supply/demand far better than we can. When there is doubt, the market maker is usually right.

     

    Actually I chose my entry based partly on this. After the day of news, the stock price opened at 45 or 46. That was the price the MM was comfortable at, which means it's highly likely it's a stable price point.
    8 Feb 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible for the dealmakers to be selling the remaining 6% into the market now? and that's what is keeping the lid on moving up & selling into the bid?
    8 Feb 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Weren't the deal-makers restricted with a lock-up period?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Given the press release that said the deal closed at $9.4 million, I see no chance that the remaining shares were sold into the open market.

     

    The placement agents got 3% of their compensation in stock, but the shares are subject to a 180 day lock-up.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: Agreed. What I'm unclear about is that the net proceeds were $8.6 million.

     

    That means all services and fees cost $800,000. Is this a reasonable price (or %) for a relatively small direct shelf?

     

    Seems to me way too expensive. My PwC pal agrees.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A total broker's compensation of 10% (7% in cash and 3% in stock) is at the high end of customary, but not necessarily out of line. Like most deals of this sort, the prospectus says:

     

    "We have agreed to pay the placement agents a cash fee of 7% of gross offering proceeds and a fee in shares of Common Stock equal to 3% of gross offering proceeds, or such lower amount as approved by FINRA."

     

    Therefore FINRA will be the final arbiter of whether it considers the compensation reasonable under the circumstances.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    You takes what you can get and is allowed, on both sides of the transaction. The pricing and terms confirm what TG said about a difficult financing environment [for Companies with such profiles]. Two obscure (at least to me) placement agents, high cost, unfilled book, no agent price support.

     

    At least it beats a 15 cent private placement with warrants.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    800k is cheap compared to other agents who may have done the raise at a discount to a recent 90 day low as I've seen in the past. I think .35 is a decent floor for us now and it could have been worse.
    8 Feb 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    odd indeed... anyone have a thought on what it could signify?
    8 Feb 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • PMP40
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Is there any possibility that BMW, GM, etc could be waiting to see if Axion survives over the next couple of years before ordering batteries? That way, if Axion does not survive, one of these companies could have the battery technology for themselves. I hope not, but is this a possibility?
    8 Feb 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PMP40: One of these (OEMs) companies could have the battery technology for themselves?

     

    Hardly. If "Goliath" Exide couldn't force "David" Axion to give up their technology, I highly doubt any single automotive company would be able to, either.

     

    If you read back through a few recent Concentrators, you will see that many of us expect all forms of grid applications to be far larger than all automotive and railroad applications combined.

     

    The grid potential is much larger.

     

    Further, if you read through other Concentrators, you will see that Axion CEO, Thomas Granville, has plainly stated the BMW is "fast tracking" the PbC. No way would TG state such if there was any concern on BMW's behalf about Axion's "survivor-bility."

     

    The fact is, that BMW has already ordered batteries, for late stage testing. Guessing so has GM and Ford, too.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Highly unlikely at this stage. Competition is a beautiful thing.

     

    1. Emission regulations are not going to give automakers the luxury of sitting on their laurels waiting for Axion to breath its last breath.

     

    2. Axion is in many different markets so each competitor in each market would have to hope that each competitor in every other market does not place an order either.

     

    That scenario is highly unlikely to happen. It could potentially happen if they only had one possible customer, with each additional potential customer the chances of that happening begin approaching zero.
    8 Feb 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think Exide already tried to run that game back in 2009. The only things that kept them from winning were the 2009 financing and solid performance conditions that eliminated their preferential rights if they didn't perform. Unless Tom's had a recent lobotomy, nobody has any preferential rights to the PbC that aren't tied to strict performance conditions. Besides, automakers don't want to own battery companies, they just want the batteries to be made by somebody who can meet their quality, price and delivery requirements.

     

    Remember, there are only two components in your car that the automaker will never put his brand on – the tires and the battery.
    8 Feb 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • PMP40
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Excellent, thanks for the answers!
    8 Feb 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Nor would BMW have done a joint presentation with Axion if they had had concerns of our ability to survive.
    9 Feb 2012, 03:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    BMW has clearly wrapped its arms around the PbC technology, but I don't think we can safely draw any other inferences from the joint presentation with Axion in September 2010.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Mr John: One question please:
    In the event that BMW or NS decide to end the relationship with AXPW, the latter must communicate that decision through PR?
    8 Feb 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If there was a bright line termination, I'd think some sort of statement would be required. If a relationship deteriorated over time, there might not be any need for a statement. It all depends on the circumstances.

     

    If you think back to the Exide relationship, it started out very close and grew strained over time. Disclosures about Exide grew more reserved and the exclusive relationship was eventually replaced with an agreement to work together on projects of mutual interest.

     

    Outright terminations are rare in the event of a technical failure. Instead relationships grow stronger or weaker over time. The only way to know for sure is to pay close attention.
    8 Feb 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Not particularly active, but you never know when it might heat up ...

     

    http://bit.ly/w3us4t

     

    Originally a forum for discussing the details of Railpower Technologies Inc's hybrid switching locomotives, dubbed Green Goats, and the RP20-series diesel "genset" switchers. This forum has expanded its discussion to the genset switchers built by NRE, MPI and other builders, and other environmentally friendly locomotives
    8 Feb 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/8/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 274,760, 290,411, and 1,600 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 566,771. Buy:sell ended at 1:1.056 and buy:(sell+unknown) at 1:1.063. There were 141 trades, giving an average trade size of ~4,020 shares per trade (I haven't been tracking this, but it might be useful down the road).

     

    Today *opened* at the low of $0.42, matching the low of the day after the share issuance and managed to close flat with yesterday. However, we had both a low breaking the recent short-term bottom of ~0.43 that had held the last three days *and* made a lower high, $0.46, dropping from the $0.48-$0.465 seen since the share issuance.

     

    This is no longer a potential "bear flag" - it's left that pattern by moving lower. The question becomes do we now move sideways, down or up. With a descending triangle *potentially* in play, there's a 64% chance of a downward breakout according to Bulkowski. But since we have retraced to the mean of our $0.25-$0.64 run up, I don't expect the down move, if it occurs, to be a big move or to last long.

     

    If it does move down, it could just be setting up a consolidation at a slightly lower level. We'll just have to watch and see.

     

    The biggest supporter of the likelihood of a down break is the increased volume seen today as we made a simultaneous lower high and low. Volume is considered "the truth teller" in TA and today's volume of 566.77K exceeded the average of the last two days, 403.135K, by 40.6% - a significant amount.

     

    I guess that much of a volume increase could be a "spike", which commonly ends a trend. But I don't think so. There's none of the usual accompanying signs - higher intra-day volatility, a (common?) big price move, a build to a crescendo, etc. Nor are the TA oscillators suggesting this.

     

    Other than potential support by folks that believe the 50-day SMA is significant (no signs of that on the 1-year chart), only to oscillators suggest any hint of stability at this level - accumulation still rising and the full stochastic trying to cross up, but still very weakly.

     

    All the others I watch are still suggesting weakness is increasing and the MFI (Money Flow Index) has enter oversold (below 20 at 15) which says money is flowing out of the equity. This is one of the few which is considered a leading indicator - the others are lagging.

     

    The best possible outcome of this, near-term, that I can imagine is a consolidation at a *slightly* lower compressed price range. *if* it does that, folks may gain confidence that price has stabilized after a few days and respond by starting to nibble in higher volumes at slightly higher prices over time. With the recent price and volume history, this should take a few days at least.

     

    The unknown is any new supply overhang. I don't think it will be a big factor now because the immediate profit above $0.35, while larger in percentage terms, is small in absolute terms - ~70K/million invested, if they could get $0.42. I suspect any "flippers" have already done their dirty deed. The rest should be waiting for a better return I think. They may cap the price for a while when it does start to recover down the road.

     

    Adding to my feelings is the continued very low percentage of daily short sales percentage even as volume increased substantially above the last two day's average. This tells me the market-makers are still receiving shares that backed sell orders the market-makers would have previously naked-shorted into the market in response to those orders. Since they "sell high, then buy low", they have had shares available for distribution at a lower price that can still yield a profit since they pre-sold at a higher price. What we can't know is if they received a substantial volume of new sell orders today. The combination of the buy:sell, short percentage, lower high and low, and increased volume makes me think they did.

     

    If so, more of the same can be expected over the next few days (assuming a maximum of T+3 latency in share receipt by the market-makers).

     

    Here's a few days of my usual daily short-sales and buy:sell stuff for context.

     

    (AXPW): 2/7/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    0201 Vol 2476749, Sht 0948628 38.30% LHC 0.3800 0.5500 0.4700 b:s 1:1.20
    0202 Vol 0584698, Sht 0181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.4800 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    0203 Vol 1019813, Sht 0235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.4690 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1
    0206 Vol 0392838, Sht 0202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    0207 Vol 0413428, Sht 0094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1
    0208 Vol 0570071, Sht 0115522 20.26% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4500 b:s 1:1.06

     

    MHO, experimental and with incomplete information, as usual,
    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Nice analysis, HTL.

     

    Still lurking at .42 (and no, that low for the day was not my program filling)...
    8 Feb 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great stuff, HTL: Have you seen the 5 day Bollinger Band? That with the SMA look like a two lane country road in Iowa. To me, this is price stabalization.

     

    We're in a really tight range, and I expect we'll maintain this tight range for another couple of trading sessions. Then we'll begin creeping to the upside.

     

    Those lurking like Trip may be able to snag some intraday 42 cent shares, but not many. Still betting we'll never see a close again at 42 cents.
    8 Feb 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    My choice was to just sit it out or lurk. My core is full and I have plenty of trading shares at various prices, so now I just wait for events.
    8 Feb 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TB: "...so now I just wait for events."

     

    Yep.

     

    You easy chair livin', too? Maybe a little more jig fish'n fer sum fun?

     

    Last night, around this time, when I-Net was down, the only thing I was afraid of, was the next morning Hard texting me, "Axion up 24 cents!" Such and such happened!

     

    I'd of flipped out missing that. Driven to the Poconos or...Atlanta trying to find a good WIFI hookup.

     

    No more worrying of big pullbacks, not here in the recently financed price range of potential monster multiple paybacks.

     

    As desk clerk, I hereby declare we're officially beyond that phase.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Maya: When are you heading south? After the CC end of March? Will you be back for the shareholders meeting in June?
    8 Feb 2012, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KentG: I'm not sure yet when I'm heading south, or even if I will go. Already committed to near three weeks at the end of this year.

     

    I definitely will be at the shareholders conference, coming this June.
    8 Feb 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Well you earned it! I hope to be there as well. I bet there will be a lot of Axionistas there. What happened to the t-shirt idea? 8-)
    8 Feb 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KentG: Ahh. Ya got me pretty quick on the rebound.

     

    I decided to delete the idea of TG presenting me with the, "Axion Power Non-employee of the Year," award in my previous comment.

     

    I'd be fun. But I hate speaking in public.

     

    If we could get some advertising on this thread, T-shirts would be paid for!
    8 Feb 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    OK, so I give up on .41 and lurk at .42 for a day based on HTL's comments. TG said he was not going to worry about a couple of pennys, so why should I? Its all good.
    8 Feb 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Here's an old (9/16/2011) article on the cost of LI car batteries. Apologies if its been mentioned before.

     

    One "decision rule" I found interesting is, assume the cost of a battery pack is 2x the price of the cells.

     

    http://bit.ly/zQtG1G
    8 Feb 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    With all the talk of a pullback, it is instrumental to look back at the 2009 offering. I don't have any intraday data on that one, but it appears that the low happened at 1.20, nowhere near the placement price of 57c. And it rebounded to near former levels the following week.

     

    Just another factoid pushing the odds in favor of higher prices. Of course, it will be what we make of it.

     

    http://bit.ly/qkPbjo
    8 Feb 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    I looked at the chart. Perhaps our time horizons differ. I usually plan to hold longer than a week or two. Looking at the chart, the price drifted downward from $1.25-$1.40 before the December 2009 offering to about 50 cents within 7 months (July 2010). To me that constitutes a pull back to the level of the offering (slighlty below in fact). Am I mis-reading this somehow?
    9 Feb 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rick: Additionally, what I see is a line of resistance that started on 8/24/09 when share price was $2.39. If you can, take your charting line and connect it to the March 21, 2011 close at $1.19, and then extend it to the Jan 23, 2012 close at 60 cents (even a staight edged piece of paper will do).

     

    This creates an almost dead perfect straight line of descent. This descending line acts as a kind of charting resistance that's now been going on for two and a half years--today that line indicates upper resistance is about 58 cents.

     

    I'll be first in line to state that this descending line does not act as a line of resistance. Too many other issues we know about is what caused this line to exsist in the first place. But long only oriented chartists do look at these things, and may be waiting for a definitive break out pull above 58 cents before getting involved.

     

    The break out, as we all know, will be event driven.

     

    ####

     

    Adding, I used a five year chart for the above exercise.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    To understand what happened in early 2010, you need to pay attention to more than just the price chart because it leads to inaccurate conclusions. I wrote a detailed explanation at the end of last month that you can review here – http://seekingalpha.co... – to summarize:

     

    Axion went into 2010 with two big blocks of stock in the hands of statutory liquidators. One was liquidating a busted hedge fund that held 2.7 million shares and the other was a bankruptcy trustee that held 543,000 shares. For the first three months of 2010, the price stabilized in the $1.20 range, which is exactly what I would have predicted based on my experience that big private investors pay 50% of the stabilized post-offering market price.

     

    In March, the two liquidators started competing with each other to push their blocks into the market. That drove the price down precipitously. In mid-April, the resale registration statement for the shares issued in the 2009 private offering went effective and some of those investors were rattled enough by the precipitous price decline that they joined the stampede that began with the liquidators.

     

    Interpreting the chart as a pull-back to the offering price is simply wrong. It was a consequence of two liquidators trying to push a year's worth of selling into the market within a couple months. Nothing more and nothing less.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I don't try to predict the price long term. The price 7 months from now is anyone's guess, but it's certainly likely to be better than the 2010 result when Axion had no product to sell and a much bigger discount to market. Further 2010 also was a turbulent year like 2011, with the major dips in AXPW coinciding with the overall market.

     

    All I am saying is that the chart in 2009 suggests that investors got over the offering in a week. They may have lost hope steadily after that, but it could be for other reasons (like going 7 months without any sales). With AXPW being much cheaper now and on the cusp of sales, I don't expect a breakdown - at least not one that threatens my position.

     

    If you want to draw a line, notice 1.20 is where the stock settled at from Feb to April 2010, coincidentally the low at the offering. That would be the extent of the fall I would attribute to that news. The dip following that should be other factors or the overall market correction we saw.

     

    Personally I think this 45c level is a new base like 1.20 was, but I will admit it's taking longer than I expected to regain the 50-60s. That I attribute to worries over NS 999. Oh well, I can wait.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your thoughts and explanation.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    Had there not been an exodus by institutions holding millions of shares the market would not have cracked back then. In fact I think it held well after the offering. This time around we have more players with less dinosaurs in the room. It's hard to force a stampede for the exits when it's just a few squirrels and cats running out the door.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    more potential ... as companies take the "low hanging fruit" first..and this one makes sense.

     

    EASY JET TO INSTALL ELECTRIC DRIVE FOR TAXIING
    http://bloom.bg/w2V7Dv
    9 Feb 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    I saw the first versions of these used back in 2005-2006. We've brought this company up before. Neat idea but has some major hurdles.

     

    The article isn't real clear but what happens today is a plane generally gets pushed back from its gate by a ground based piece of equipment. When the plane is loading the lights, air power are being run by an APU (Aux. Power Unit). The old process was to use the APU on the plane but in major airports, airlines has usually installed ground based APUs to handle this as maintenance is easier, the APU on the aircraft was originally designed for emergencies and you want to minimize use of it. Once the plane is ready to depart you quite often see the lights flicker and it get hot as the APU gets pulled. The the plane is pushed back via ground crew. Some older planes such as DC-9s and MD-80s would use reverse thrust to push away from the gate but due to safety and fuel burn (mostly safety) that is generally not done. Once the plane gets in the taxiway the ground staff disengage and the pilots use the APU to start one engine which they use to taxi around. This is to save the start of the one engine until takeoff as the engine is sub-optimal for this simple purpose.

     

    A) The FAA had major issues with this in 2005-06 in that you basically would be bringing equipment and staff on to active taxiways. The process would be to couple this up to replace the pushback but still would require ground staff as spotters in the lane. At some point the pilot would take over control out to the taxiway. If like the version I saw meant that before takeoff you had to remove this that means the airport would have to have several crew to remove these from each aircraft and cycle them back to the gates. This is a lot of ground crew and equipment at the end of the runway, a dangerous place.

     

    b) However if their plan is to build these into the design of the plance and have them simply store in the wheelwheel that is different all together as the airlines will reject that as airlines are loathe to add weight.

     

    Here is how serious airlines are about weight as this was when Jet-A cost $.40/gallon vs $3.00 today. When I started at Northwest Airlines my first financial review project was to determine if it made sense to remove the ashtrays in each armrest with a metal plate that screwed on top. The cost component was the cost of the plates and installation on 400 Aircraft vs the benefit of having to clean these out and the fuel savings. The project was approved as each ashtray weighed something like 4 oz and the replacement plate was 1 oz. That 3 oz per seat was a savings of 24 lbs per plane x however many miles flown and it was material.

     

    C) Lastly, I don't know any pilot who is simply willing to not check his engines before pulling on to the runway. Checking and starting your engine right at the end seems crazy to me as it will cause a 30 second delay which is 1 flight greatly reducing volume and increasing delays.

     

    The answer to this project would be something like a battery that is very light so that it can be stored in the wheelwell. A PbC does not fit that description. In fact that is a place for Lithium where weight is an issue. Hell maybe a supercapicator.
    9 Feb 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Mr.Holty, thanks for the well written response..I did take it that they were going to build it into the plane...I could be wrong. Weight is always a factor, I agree.

     

    Frrat, anything that goes electric is related to AXPW...that's why we follow the other companies too....it may not be a PbC market, but who says AXPW has to be a one dog/pony show? As fuel costs continue upward, many markets will be cost feasible. Maybe even the trucks that push planes could be a candidate for PbC as weight doesn't matter there...infact it is a plus.
    9 Feb 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    That's what I was thinking too, LT. The trucks I mean. They could even make them RC like the yard slugs
    9 Feb 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    When I saw the original design unit 5 years ago the idea was to add it at the gate and remove upon the runway apron after taxiing. At that time the FAA told them to go back as it would not be approved for the reasons above. If they are going to build it into the plane this would be a place where price and weight matter which is where Lithium should beat out PbC.

     

    I've long thought that the pushbacks, tugs, belt loaders on an airport are perfect for the PbC. When you think of a bag room they are usually underneath the terminal and its dirty to have bag handlers in there with engines running (100% in the winter). In fact some airlines have tried 100% electric but to the best of my knowledge are shunned by the working staff as they generally don't get the care they need to be charged at the overnight, weather issues, etc. A start/stop is perfect as these tugs will generally be left on but they idle alot (think 5 minutes at a time to unload a container).

     

    Airlines want green credibiltiy and money savings just like oil. Like John has said the market is big enough for all we just need to pick and choose.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    Just a quick couple of points to mrhotly's well written explanation above.

     

    S.O.P (standard operating procedure) at most airlines are to taxi from the ramp area on one engine. (the wide bodies start both engines because of the danger of breakaway thrust raising all kinds of hell in the ramp area... breakaway thrust is obviously less if we "start'em both"

     

    The new paradigm is for us to use the A.P.U (on the plane) as little as possible..... so while at the gate we "plug into" the Airport Power until 15 minutes prior to push... the F/A's need the APU bleed to operate the water, thus coffee maker, so this really pisses them off... and first class.

     

    We need 3 minutes of warm-up time on the engines before setting takeoff thrust for departure, although 5 minutes if optimal and necessary if it was a cold start... I.E. not a turn. (in and out). Cool down is the same parameters more or less... 3 minute min at idle before shutdown.

     

    A couple of gee wiz tid-bits: this fuel thing has reached such epic proportions that when runway length and gross weight is appropriate, we now land FLAPS 3 vice FLAPS 4 (FULL) to save on drag (thus fuel) on final.... lots of push-back on this from pilots... I drank the kool- aide.... don't think it's such a big deal.

     

    Altitudes are optimized for fuel burn vis-a-vis winds aloft. We even vary track across the ground if the winds are better.

     

    I could ramble on, but the fuel thing is a BIG DEAL!

     

    Any other airline related questions... I consider myself an expert... so fire away!
    9 Feb 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I don't see how this is related to PbC. From what bloomberg reported, this e-taxi system is using power generated by APU (a small gas turbine itself) to turn wheels. Battery is not mentioned. Even it does need battery, PbC is not a good candidate because weight and volume are mission critical for aircraft while battery costs are not.
    I do believe grid application is where the true potential lies for PbC...
    9 Feb 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    ZOWIE: Wunderlich just downgraded A123 to a sell and put a $0.50 target price on the stock, down from the prior target of $3.

     

    http://yhoo.it/xyvoHl

     

    They're apparently worried about the Fisker Flu.
    9 Feb 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    They are pushing a 20% drop. Does one firm have that much impact on the price? I guess the question is should they have that much influence because it sure looks like they did. I wonder if one of the other firms will speak up. I know A123 is after the grid market as well and if they go the way of ENER1 then I guess that's one less competitor.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    I was kicking myself for selling out of A123 in the last few days at half a penny gain, but now I see that doubt pays off. I just couldn't figure out what would drive the stock higher other than that the chart looks good.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I loved the chart a month ago and recommended A123 as a potential break-out. Unfortunately things like blowback from problems with a major customer trump the charts every time.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Something else about new offerings. From what I saw, it was common for existing shareholders to buy more at the big discount, then sell off some or all of their previous shares, to get back to their "normal" holding level. A big scalp/arbitrage, IOW. Was often hard for the agents to control, because people sometimes had shares held away from their agent accts.

     

    Could help explain the big supply here in the mid $.40's.

     

    PS--Didn't ANYONE here get in the new offering? As much as you want at 35 cents? THAT is bargain shopping!
    9 Feb 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Either way, we are in a good spot. If the new investors are not selling, then they are not selling. If they are selling, then our price is holding firm, which means good things once they are done.
    9 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Yes, the orderliness of the high volumes trading here certainly is impressive. Another silver lining should be, under such a scalp/arbitrage scenario, that there would be a lot less selling pressure as the price approaches 35 cents. Nice, self-limiting feature.

     

    On the outside of the cloud, however, is that potentially, the overhang is giant and long-lasting. If anyone can figure out what the buyers already owned, that could be very helpful--at least until big news comes.
    9 Feb 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You get overhang from warrants and other instruments that will increase the number of shares in the future. It doesn't come from fully paid common shares.

     

    Over the last few years PIPEs have gotten a bad name when a single house buys a convertible security with a variable pricing mechanism that's tied to market. In those cases there was often an incentive for the buyer to behave poorly and pound the entire issue out for a small gain.

     

    Those incentives for bad behavior don't exist in a broadly distributed deal to individuals and small funds. There will always be some who want to flip out for a quick 20% gain and that's just the nature of the beast. In many cases placement agents count on the flippers to make stock available for clients who weren't big enough hitters to participate in the direct deal. Whenever buying and selling are as closely matched as they seem to be right now, there's a good chance that the stock is circulating in a pretty small group.

     

    Most investors who buy in directed deals understand that when investors stampede to the exit they only hurt themselves. I know very few people, other than professional traders, who are willing to assume the risk of a development stage company for anything less than multi-bag returns. If we had to look forward to a situation where a few big holders would be making hold, sell or buy more decisions, I'd be far more concerned than I am with a situation where a larger group of smaller holders will each be making an independent decision because the odds that they'll all decide the same thing at the same time are very remote.
    9 Feb 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Investor thanks for your insights on the offerings. A lot of what you are saying has run through my mind as well but here are my rebuttals to myself...

     

    It does not make sense to me that any investors would pound out their old investment only to push the price down to what their new shares are at.

     

    On flipping: I can't imagine that many guys who sit down to write a $300k check for a nano-cap would be happy with selling at a 20% gain taxed at 40%.

     

    if "...the overhang is giant and longlasting"

     

    With the increase in volume since the last raise we should be able to eat through the small number of shareholders that are willing to sell here. The shame is if they would let it rise they would attract a whole lot more bee's to their honey pot and probably sell out sooner. During the rise in Jan. we sold 12M shares.

     

    Either way, to me .42 is the cement floor and if you want to build a substantial size position you will probably want to be eating at, at least, .44 . But who knows I have seen more irrational things happen in the market.
    9 Feb 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    volume today is practically light as my sell order of 6k shares @.457 pushed the price down to 44 cents. i didn't trust the buy 10k@.44 versus sel 5k@.45799 and put it to the test.
    9 Feb 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand... what were you testing for here? Thanks.
    9 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    i only get level one quotes, so i am sitting here watching a 2 to one buy side demand but no sales. i thought, this doesn't make sense even with the spread. so i slightly undercut the offer price and offeres 6k shares, short of demand for 10k but still more than a cent over the bid. this prompted sales at 45 then 44 cents. and a sudden supply of stock at those prices showed up.

     

    for me that means some group of holders is shaky enough that a .0009 cent drop in the ask (for a measly 6k shares mind you) can prompt selling a full 1.5 cents lower. i suspect we have at least one willing seller at 44 cents and just did my best to test my assumptions.
    9 Feb 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, do you do that often Tragic? Because I always see a 10k ask come up for .0001 less than the original ask which causes the other guy's ask to drop lower causing others to back off of buying because it looks like there is competition at the sell window. Other times when there is a large bid I will see a 10k bid come up just .0001 larger than the bid. (I know even though they show 10k it is not always actually 10k.)
    9 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps it's just simply that the MM wants to bounce shares between 44c and 46c as long as he can, as that's how they make money. A near 10% gain per round trip, not shabby at all.
    9 Feb 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    any order i put in buy or sell, i expect to fill. that said, i have watched the price move based on my buy and sell orders before.

     

    it could just be a market maker, but 6k shares is easy enough to wait out imo. so idk. i just thought it was worth letting you know what i was up to...
    9 Feb 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    TA Guys

     

    Can you explain to me why i see a trade sell for 44 cents in the thousands of shares immediately followed by a 100 share trade for 45 cents,

     

    It seems to be a pattern at least for the last hour. Is that the MM doing this?? I mean it seems that no sales are larger than 100 shares for 45 cents right now..

     

    Appreciate anyones insight, Thanks

     

    MAP
    9 Feb 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    My guess is that the MM has accumulated a larger than normal amount of shares since last year and after the offering, and they would prefer to keep the price high and stable so they can reduce. With steady selling pressure, MM's as buyer-of-last-resort are forced to take up the slack. Thus, they have no interested in letting another panic run to the downside occur. They were plenty obliging to let it go to the upside in Jan though. Again, this is something in our favor, though that makes the MMs another possible source of share supply.
    9 Feb 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    this is why i tested the .45799 ask with my 6k at .457. i cannot say for certain what's going on, just that there is at least one seller happy to get 44 cents a share.
    9 Feb 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    TRAGIC

     

    i called Schwab and all they would say is on a penny stock like this the MM has a ton of leeway in what they want to do. Kinda makes the level 1 numbers meaningless. I also only have level1. Can get Level 2 for 30 bucks a month but was advised to not even bother as the numbers might be meaningless.

     

    Kinda scary..

     

    map
    9 Feb 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    New 8-K form from Axion just arrived in my e-mail box.

     

    Including the broker compensation, Axion issued 27,651,862 new shares for net proceeds of $8,616,036 or $.3112/share.
    9 Feb 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you had a couple typos there AP. The total number of shares sold was 26,850,845. If you include the 3% that will be issued to the placement agents if FINRA approves the equity compensation, the total number of shares issued in connection with the transaction will total 27,656,370.
    9 Feb 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Nothing is going to happen from here until Rosewater or Vani and crew at Axion hit a deal with someone. The stock is going to whirl around in an eddy until then unless another big holder gets something caught in a wringer and has to sell regardless of price. "shuddder".

     

    I capitulated on lower prices and made a small buy at .44. Fresh powder available next week. MAP> as to my remark no sales in 2009, 2010, 2011 they didn't really have anything to sell until late 2011 except practically handmade prototypes and early Gen2 batteries for demo purposes. They obviously have the kinks of production worked out now hence hiring Vani.
    9 Feb 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz, since we are in total darkness as to when that (or those) sales will be, buying at .44 does seem like a safe play to me. TG did sound very positive with regards to the Cube. It helps to remember that he talked of sales in different stages in the process...
    9 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I expect some upward movement by continued small-ish announcements like we've had recently. Then, eventually, a big'n.
    9 Feb 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    I have a feeling that we may be surprised at the rate sales start to take off. Not having any knowledge of Rosewater, its hard to say for sure as we don't know what they've done historically and have no idea what they are doing at this moment. But I do think the "RigCube", as I have dubbed it, will present compelling incentive to make a switch. There will still be, I'm guessing, a 4-6 month cycle for each customer, but due to the nature of their operations (i.e. being very mobile) they have many opportunities to pick a test rig and throw it out there. Also, being that the RigCube is stand alone there should only be need for minimal retrofitting on the rig itself. It should only be a matter of swapping some cables and running a few new wires. That's BIG because our other potentials hanging out there, such as NS and BMW, have had to make major design changes which obviously drags out the whole sales cycle.

     

    Another big variable in all of this is the fact that NG prices are so low. It has caused most of the O&G E&Ps to cut back significantly on their capex for this year and have reduced the number of rigs they have out there. That leaves them with xtra cash, but fewer places to apply it. I'm still undecided what the net affect of all this is to Axion and the RigCube for this year. It is anticipated that NG prices should start returning to more normal ranges by late Q3, which is only 7-8 months out, so it may end up having no affect at all or only minimal affect.

     

    Not knowing exactly what the price point is for the RigCube is another variable, but I have to believe it will present a compelling incentive and my experience has been that E&Ps are BIG on saving anywhere they can.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    BANG

     

    I understood what you meant. I appreciate the update as well. I also agree that the MM can play games , just lets see what happens when we see a nice press release one day. Then the gloves come off...I know it might be a while but the manipulation that keeps the market flowing here is all over the place.

     

    However Vani's hiring could also be a situation of not wanting to pass up a piece of the long term puzzle. Happy to see that it happened if we are close to other opportunities.

     

    Penny moves will happen as it seems the majority of the bigger holders are happy with their exposure. It will take NEW investors to help push the price higher. Did i hear retail??
    9 Feb 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Bear in mind MAP that TG was a national management side labor negotiator for years. He wouldn't overpay for Vani. Secondly, $250K outside of CapX expense is probably the biggest expense TG has allowed in years. If he pulled the trigger on that deal it was for a clear good reason. Vani's been around the battery technology field on an international level for years. 10 to 1 he and TG know many of the same people in the industry worldwide.

     

    TG had a huge number of mutual contacts he could reach out to that he knew personally for reference purposes. I would bet you dollars to doughnuts that Vani's references are what closed this deal.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    We had a long discussion a few concentrators back thanks to HTL.
    You can bet the MM's are doing the 100 share blocks to maintain price stability until they get net even again.
    then who knows....
    I agree with Bang, nothing gonna happen until another sale is announced. These small movements really mean nothing. I am just glad they are able to keep it at .42-.46.
    9 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): At 13:00 buy:sell is 1:5.03, 48,080, 231,793.

     

    This makes me suspect what I posited last night - "my best case scenario ..." will not hold up. And it does appear either the market-maker got a lot of shares from prior sell orders or is receiving new ones.

     

    When the sells outnumber the buys by this magnitude, it brings out the bottom-feeder in me quite strongly.

     

    I'm still holding for <$0.42 regardless of what the market-maker is doing ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Educated guess time:

     

    I think there may be an in-house redistribution going on where direct placement buyers are peeling off shares at a 20% premium to their purchase price so that the placement agent's small clients can build positions without stressing the market. It's hard to find another explanation for the narrow trading range and very high volume.

     

    There's no way to tell whether that kind of redistribution is happening, but I've seen it happen in the past. The biggest reason I suspect that the dynamic may be in play right now is that we're not hearing reports of Axionistas buying in serious volume and I have a clear sense that most are sitting on the sidelines watching, or lurking at true bottom feeder levels.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    The bet has to be on sales/partnership news. Absent which, my guess that we slip into the thirties before long, where the stock becomes more attractive to the retail bottom feeder class and finds its base. With some news (and it doesn't have to be earth shattering, just indicative of continued progress behind the scenes), we likely will not see the thirties again, barring major future set backs.
    9 Feb 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    That makes sense. If true, we ought to see short sales stay relatively low until its over as I presume the shares can go electronically immediately from the owning broker to his captive market-maker.

     

    I was reading up on the DTCC facilities this weekend and they made a lot of real-time on-line enhancements that allows bookkeeping to go much more accurately and quickly.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'll be surprised to see the price slip much farther because there are no percentages in it for the direct placement investors. The bulk of the float has already been soaked up by the Axionistas who by and large are not interested in selling at cheap prices. They also aren't particularly interested in buying at anything more than bottom feeder prices. The new investors have all the time in the world and nobody takes the risk of investing in a development stage nano-cap for a lousy 20%. I can see transactions at this price as part of an in-house redistribution. I can't see them as an indicator of the price the new investors are willing to accept for the bulk of their shares.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    The missing piece for me is the 6% of the deal at 35 cents that was not purchased. I don't know why the agents didn't have their smaller clients fill that, first. Heck, they shoulda called us here at the Axionista HQ.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Filling in a 6% hole within a three day window is very tough. If you're counting on a couple $300,000 checks that don't show up on time, scrambling to find instantly available replacement cash can be tough. In a private deal where the closing date can be pushed it's pretty easy to fill to 100% every time. In a relatively broad distribution public deal with a short fuse it's much tougher.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    John, All perfectly logical, and you may easily be right. My comment was, I suppose, reflective of my own personal bias, which is not to add above .40. Also, in any period of prolonged silence with respect to advancement of the product toward sales, there will probably be some attritional loss of faith by some with lower patience thresholds than others. This becomes more acute if general economic conditions show signs of life that make other shorter term opportunities appear more compelling.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Could you pm me and take the time to explain exactly what you mean. Sorry as i do not understand this thought completely. If you want to add it here feel free.

     

    I would really appreciate it as i THINK i understand an in house re distribution. But why would they need to do it. No rush..

     

    Thanks in advance
    map
    9 Feb 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    I don't think we'll drift into the $0.3X because I don't know who would be selling shares at that price point. And while volume may fall off at $0.4X, I think there will be enough retail interest each week to make some trades at this price point - people that happen to come across JP's articles from AONE/XIDE/elsewhere (I believe I found XIDE in a stock screener before coming here via JP's articles to discover AXPW originally).

     

    At any rate, I would be a buyer at $0.4X if I didn't already top-off the day of the financing at $0.43, but my "spoke" (my father) has tripled his position (from original cb ~$0.60) at $0.45 this past week. We were waiting for the financing risk to subside and I think there may be other lurkers that were also waiting for that uncertainty to disappear and are now buying up shares... There were new buyers at $0.5X and $0.6X last month and if anything, this is a more attractive investment with the working capital needs taken care of.

     

    But as for who would be selling at $0.3X - I don't know who takes profits there, and the losing hands have had a week to sell at higher prices in the $0.4X now. I believe JP's statements that most private placement investors will be holding for multi-baggers.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well...we may or may not be stuck in a trading range, but the APCs are never stuck. Onward we go to the next Concentrator:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Feb 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $LINEQ shorts finally getting squeezed? LINE's largest holder, Omega Advisors, are "comfortable" with their $200M holdings of LINE
    Jun 18, 2013
  • I will be on Mad Money tonight in Cramer's Lightning Round with stock pick $LINEQ, which yields almost 9%, and yet hit a 52 week low today.
    May 30, 2013
  • Axion Power (AXPW) announces Dec. delivery of batteries to Norfolk Southern for new all electric yard switcher. Shares up 9.87%
    Jan 11, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.