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Mayascribe
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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from John Petersen:

     

    I'll be surprised to see the price slip much farther because there are no percentages in it for the direct placement investors. The bulk of the float has already been soaked up by the Axionistas who by and large are not interested in selling at cheap prices. They also aren't particularly interested in buying at anything more than bottom feeder prices. The new investors have all the time in the world and nobody takes the risk of investing in a development stage nano-cap for a lousy 20%. I can see transactions at this price as part of an in-house redistribution. I can't see them as an indicator of the price the new investors are willing to accept for the bulk of their shares.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Always appreciate you kind folks thumbs upping the Axion Power Concentrators.
    9 Feb 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Sheesh: no trades since 13:47.

     

    Bottom-feeding par excellence?

     

    Market-makers need volume to make money. Maybe we can outlast them.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Since February 1st total trading volume has been ~5,846,080 shares, which would represent 2,923,040 shares on the sell and buy sides. It may be a coincidence that selling pressure dried up when total sell side volume was a little over 10% of the direct placement shares. It may also indicate that the direct placement purchasers are done for a while. I suppose time will tell.
    9 Feb 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I've screened roughly 600 links from past concentrators provided by a spider written and run for me by F-Kru. I have 365 to go and I intend to finish screening and putting them all in a grid by topic on posted to the website I am developing by Monday. As many know, I am caring 24/7 for my elderly Axionista mother (she's got 5K shares) and I tend to wait until she zonks out for the night before I try working on the web. Tonight I am going to make a major push on finishing the links by topic grid.
    9 Feb 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Bang, we can't say "Gracias" often enough for what you are doing with a little help from your friends like F-Kru. So, many thanks.
    9 Feb 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It's a very impressive start Bang. I'm jealous of you technology types.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    You know I have empathy, and a *lot* of appreciation for the effort.

     

    The results will show and reflect well on you for a long time!

     

    Thank you sir!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Mercy I agree 100 percent. Dedication and devotion of Bang and a few others here is second to none.
    9 Feb 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    A 25,499 share trade @ $0.43 just registered at 4:09 PM.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW):JVeal, you beat me to it!

     

    The AH trade is unusual for AXPW. It was recorded as "form t", so it's apparently a "backroom" trade between brokers or customers of a single broker?

     

    Buy: sell before this trade was 1:4.35, after 1:4.76.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: What happened to BlackRock?
    9 Feb 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Nothing as far as I know. Why do you ask?
    9 Feb 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not seeing them listed in Yahoo! Finance as a Top Institutional Holder any longer.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    FWIW, Blackrock has never been listed on Nasdaq.com as an institutional investor

     

    http://bit.ly/yeUkms

     

    Had to go back and look at the filings to check it.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stefan: Thanks for the clarification. I swear I have seen them listed before.

     

    Otherwise, why would I ask the question? How else would I know BlackRock held Axion shares?

     

    I'm not worried about this matter, and perhaps it's my memory, but something seems off kilter.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    They are still listed on Morningstar as a holder with their 7.15M. It would be awesome if they weren't...one less dinosaur as someone mentioned above, but I think they still are.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    But with the data date of 12/31/2010.

     

    Were do we get the info most directly?
    9 Feb 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "Otherwise, why would I ask the question? How else would I know BlackRock held Axion shares?".

     

    Overload. JP told us they held a couple times. If your like me, the information overload strts "cross posting" information from one place to another.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Re: your Blackrock question -- I recall seeing this Bloomberg article about the Blackrock New Energy Fund which held £208,000 in Axion shares as part of their "Investments Enabling Energy & Infrastructure". If I apply some currency and price assumptions the holding is for less than 700,000 shares as of October 2011: http://bloom.bg/zpCfxb

     

    In addition as you know JP listed last month in his article "An Elephant Hunter's Theory ..." an estimate that Blackrock was likely still holding a sizeable block (from their original private placement purchase) close to the size Jakurtz also mentioned: http://bit.ly/xufiLj

     

    Don't know if that is what you were looking for -- but those are the 2 references I have come across.
    9 Feb 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock filed a Schedule 13G in January 2010 to report their initial acquisition of the 7.15 million shares. – http://1.usa.gov/wM4bau

     

    They were also reported as a 7.15 million share holder in Axion's last Proxy Statement. – http://1.usa.gov/rscz7P

     

    While they don't file Schedule 13-HR like US based funds, they'd be required to amend their Schedule 13G if the sold a substantial part of their position. Since there hasn't been an amendment, we have to assume they're still in place.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mercy, JP and jakutz: Thanks. I thought I was going to have to put those BlackRock shares on a milk carton.

     

    From both of your links, it looks like BlackRock did sell some shares, about 1 million, and now hold 6.1M shares, and seem to be keeping those shares.

     

    Why BlackRock escapes being listed as a major holder is beyond me.

     

    Ditto as to why they sold a million shares, if this is indeed true.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    You can track some of their funds through some UK sites. Use the keyword search.

     

    http://bit.ly/y6uGek
    10 Feb 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    This is a great learning topic of discussion as many people watch what institutions do ... my understanding is that they do not have to make a disclosure unless they go above or under 5 or 10% and then they have to do so.

     

    However, I have not read the securities rules for awhile and JP can probably clarify this in his sleep.
    10 Feb 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    A stockholder is required to file an ownership report on Schedule 13D or 13G as soon as its beneficial ownership represents 5% or more of a company's stock. They're also required to file annual amendments within 45 days after the end of the year to report any changes in their holdings. There is no additional filing requirement if there have been no changes.

     

    In addition to the filing obligations imposed by Section 13, a stockholder who owns more than 10% of a company's stock must file reports of purchases and sales on Form 4 within two days after any transaction.

     

    Special Situations, Manatuck Hill and Blackrock are all subject to the filing requirements of Schedule 13. The only non-management shareholder that is required to file trading reports on Form 4 is the Quercus Trust.

     

    Special Situatons has already filed a Schedule 13G-A to report that it's no longer a 5% owner. Within the next few days, we should see reports from both Manatuck Hill and Blackrock if either of them have sold in the last year.
    10 Feb 2012, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well then, let's call BlackRock's forthcoming 13G-A report the ending of the case of what happened to the missing shares.

     

    I'm not keen on being resolute about this, but I'm a nip tuck away from stating categorically that I have in the past seen BlackRock listed as an Axion Top Institutional Holder on Yahoo! F. Many times.

     

    I'm a bite short of positive I recall seeing BlackRock as an Axion investor, and back then feeling "comfort" from this. BlackRock is a high end, highly regarded investing house.

     

    Glad we'll learn more very soon.

     

    I'm not big on millions of shares going unaccounted for.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Just remember they don't have to file unless their holdings have changed, so no news is good news.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Exide just reported $67.9 of net income for their third quarter, or about $0.84 per share fully diluted. Not bad for a $4 stock. Tomorrow should be a lot of fun for those who picked up some Exide over the last month or two.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    But it's down big so far in the after mkt.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    That makes no sense to me. I bought some back @ 2.88 and had a standing order to sell half @4.00 which hit a couple of days ago. My initial glance at the numbers said it looked good. No idea on the drop. Is the CC today or tomorrow?
    9 Feb 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    The CC is friday morning 0900 Eastern... Biggest deal I'd say is the withdrawal of forward guidance... Seems like it's gonna be dark a fair while longer before the dawn...
    9 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I'm trying to go through the 10Q myself, in my own limited way, and my first impression was negative due to decreasing topline sales... but given the weather and the shaky European and NA environments, I guess that could be worse.. so John, to be clear, you see this as a good report?
    9 Feb 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    $60,313,000 of the 67.9million is an income tax benefit provision, which looks like mostly due to "release of a valuation allowance in France of ($76.7) million" What is that exactly? It's one-time only, no?
    9 Feb 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I'll have to dig in a little deeper tomorrow morning.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Thanks sincerely John. The CC is tomorrow 0600 Pacific, I bet it's gonna be a fun time... ;) All this is still in the land of pre-AGM / Stop-Start Kahuna Wave ... so I'm thinking if the price erodes and wallows for the next several months, it just compresses the spring further... because at some point with these guys their sails are going to start to fill with AGM/SS sales... maybe it's not until next year, or even 2014, but hard to see how it's not still bankable..
    9 Feb 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exide down 24.81% in AH trading.

     

    JP: I hear crown rack of lamb tastes best in June!

     

    Betting soon we'll see Exide brass outside the Cloverleaf facility, pruning bushes, picking up trash, selling street lemonade, doing anything and everything they can to lock themselves into Axion technology.
    9 Feb 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Way back in this blog's infancy I wrote about Exide's coming Catch 22.

     

    Here's the problem the Exide board does know. Their AGM batts don't hold up for more than a few months using s/s.

     

    Then...when this becomes widely known, and since Exide relies on 80% (an old number) of their biz for after market sales, who's going to be buying another battery that won't work?

     

    Or, replacing, say, a PbC with their garbage battery.

     

    Perhaps that's why they know to no longer offer forward guidance because they have no clue what will happen when 1000s of their batteries become useless with the coming s/s technology. Or more simply, they already know their out of luck when it comes to new cars being sold with an Exide battery for s/s autos.

     

    And they also know that their after market business is going to dry up, because the PbC will outlast and outperform anything Exide has to offer.

     

    Said before I will never own Exide until this Catch 22 is conquered, and I'm saying it again, now.

     

    In a nutshell, their business model sucks.

     

    Oh yeah, Exide is "creating" a lithium division? Another brilliant move.

     

    (I'm being all too kind. If I was writing this over in Quick Chat, Exide would have another way of doing a number two)
    9 Feb 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Yes, lithium as in meds.

     

    The current lead s/s battery situation is unsustainable, and frankly, ridiculous. All the industry players know they fail early. Do governments and the vehicle-buying public? Environmental and consumer protection groups? Where is the outrage?

     

    Feels like it could be something that, when it finally changes, happens overnight. Bam, it's a new world and Axion has the solution.

     

    Same thing happening in rail, just in even slower-mo. Axion's the battery fixer-upper.
    9 Feb 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Well, both JCI (not a stupid company, by any stretch) and Exide are investing heavily in AGM production capacity. I have to believe they wouldn't be doing this without good reason, as they see it. Those batteries will be going into SS autos at the factory, in greater and greater numbers, at greater margins, and it will be a while before the inadequacies of AGM vis-a-vis StopStart really start to manifest in meaningful numbers in the installed base. In the meantime, they will sell a lot of AGMs. Obviously, we want all of them to eventually be bludgeoned into buying copious amounts of carbon electrodes from Axion, but it's probably going to take some time for all that to play out...
    9 Feb 2012, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Maybe part of Vani's pitch will be, "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" and therefore, "the sooner the better."
    9 Feb 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Agreed Maya, its their only hope of getting off the floor. I would be very leery of getting into bed with them, they seem to be losers at heart. Management is only rearranging the chairs on the top deck as they sail on into the icebergs
    9 Feb 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    There's been discussion of how "Not Invented Here" syndrome is a very powerful force...and that it may take something like a 2x4 to get them to finally see the light. Vani should keep copious notes, it will all make a great book someday ;)
    9 Feb 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I think it's also that they're in a tough business right now, with several of their ankles chewed by euro-regulatory and euro-labor traps. Not to mention the continent-wide turmoil there due to an overdue re-acquaintance with economic reality. Throw in some particularly in-opportune weather, a longterm over-hanging debt burden, and without the AGM wave hitting like we hope/expect, it would be a long road back to vim and vigor for anybody, even if management were superstars.
    9 Feb 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    No wonder why Axion's using a "pull" approach, by going to the vehicle manufacturers. They're evidently more receptive to an effective solution.

     

    Maybe some good old fashioned whistleblowing to the media, consumer groups, regulators and governments might help speed things up. Oh, and a come-to-jesus press release like XIDE just had. Some of the best changes happen when you're back's against the wall.
    9 Feb 2012, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that the AGM batteries don't stop working in a micro-hybrid. What the customer loses is stop-start functionality. The car still starts every morning because the battery has way more energy and power than it really needs, but the engine does not turn itself off at stop-lights. Usually the deterioration is rapid enough that the consumer doesn't get accustomed to the engine turning itself off at lights so he doesn't miss it.

     

    When the change comes it is far more likely to come from regulators who say "This pollution control system isn't working" than from customers complaining that their car won't start.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: I knew you'd love this news. Remember your "gleeful response" after I reported reading the annual report...with all those 8 or 9 pages of "risky problems" Exide had? Remember those two links showing two Exide plants were having some serious EPA issues? That were not included in the annual report?

     

    Sometimes it pays off to read those boring annuals. And then do a looking poking around.

     

    Can you imagine if this gang had decided to get on tomorrow's Exide CC; what kind of questions we would be asking?
    10 Feb 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    As I understand it, the sole purpose of the s/s system is to increase mileage and decrease pollution. Customers pay for those benefits and they are something they expect to occur for longer than a few weeks or months.

     

    But when they, regulators and governments learn that the s/s system fails so early after purchase, all hel* will eventually break loose, I suspect. Not as bad of a problem as, say, for unintended acceleration when you had images of carnage, but a coming scandal nonetheless.

     

    Not news to Axionistas, but the problem just bugs me. I take a lot of comfort, though, in the opportunity to buy AXPW at great prices while the whole s/s mess is still off-the-radar. Just a matter of time before the world comes to us.
    10 Feb 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Hi Investor,

     

    I just posted this comment in response to a comment from someone in another article on who will be responsible for the stop-start system, I think it applies here as well.

     

    I believe this is why you will see automakers beginning to develop entire systems similar to BMW's "Efficient Dynamics". Their Efficient Dynamics will incorporate stop/start along with other efficiency components. In the end I believe the automaker knows it will be responsible for the entire efficiency system and this is part of the reason for stringent testing on all of the components that will make up that system. They have to get it right. Right now, stop/start is more or less adding a slightly more robust battery to the car as well as a few electronics to shut the car off at stop lights. As time goes on the capabilities of stop/start will be expanded and new, better batteries will be needed because automakers will be responsible for their entire efficiency system and they will not want to be eating warranty payments for the next decade. This is where Axion and the PbC step in.
    10 Feb 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Currently the problem is that the automakers can design and build better idle elimination systems than the best available batteries can support. They're all guilty of greenwashing, but the regulations specify the hoops they have to jump through rather than the consumers.

     

    Currently the regulations say that the automakers have to deliver a new car for a 20-minute testing protocol and the result of that testing is a CO2 emissions window sticker.

     

    Because of the way batteries age, the 20 minute test only assesses how mechanical systems perform with perfect battery. There isn't a lead-acid battery in the world that won't perform perfectly in that kind of a test. So at least for now, the automakers can get their window sticker with whatever garbage they want to put into a car.

     

    All of the work that's being done with dual battery systems and AGM is the automakers trying to do more than they have to because they know the regulations are certain to change as more micro-hybrids hit the road. It doesn't make sense to change annual pollution testing protocols when only one car in 50 has stop-start. As the ratios increase the regulations will be tightened.

     

    In the final analysis regulators are always rational men who won't require an industry to accomplish the impossible. As AGM becomes more widely available, the regulations will be tightened. As the PbC or other more advanced alternatives become widely available the regulations will be tightened some more. Ultimately, I believe time is on our side and the PbC has great promise. The automakers won't make a change, however, until they're absolutely certain that the change won't create more problems than it solves, which is the reason for the interminable testing.
    10 Feb 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Hey jk,

     

    Thanks. I don't (yet, anyway) understand the nuances of the problem--who is legally responsible for what, for example. But I know I'd be upset to find out that the shiny new car I just paid for broke soon after I bought it--and the manufacturer knew it would happen!

     

    That's why I consider this a coming scandal if not fixed soon.
    10 Feb 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    John, the after-the-fact feedback loop is laughable, at least to me. But this is the auto industry, after all.

     

    Just a new twist on the old, "$35k for the new XRL." Prospective customer then opens the hood to find it empty. "Engine, ENGINE! You never said you wanted an engine. That'll cost you extra."

     

    "You never said you wanted the benefits of s/s to last beyond our parking lot! How were we supposed to know?"
    10 Feb 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    I think regulatory changes make up one part of the push/pull response to microhybrids and its not the part that I count on. John quite often states that the green people most care about is the one in their wallet. My belief is that if buyer x sees he can get 33mpg vs 28 in the other car he's looking at the odds have just slightly moved in his favor. The increased cost of a PbC should pay for itself at the pump pretty quickly vs years for a hybrid and never for an electric car.

     

    Green indeed.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    XIDE dropped quite a bit after hours...............
    9 Feb 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • astroboy7
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Volume after hours is 25,000. Today's volume was close to 2 million. So let's see how tomorrow goes.

     

    This is a strange stock. Net sales were $784.1 million for the third quarter and their market cap is 300 million.
    9 Feb 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Just came across this when looking at BW's impressive collection on the website.

     

    I think someone was asking today or yesterday if there was a chance that any of the partners could have bailed on Axion.

     

    In looking at the Rosewater Utilities brochure, I came across a current list of partners.

     

    http://bit.ly/wnpKz5

     

    The document properties say that the brochure was created on 1/13/12 and it has a list of partners.

     

    • PJM Interconnection
    • Viridity Power
    • BMW
    • Norfolk Southern
    • Envision Solar
    • Siltek Inc
    9 Feb 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Stefan > That's just total BS in my opinion and unhelpful to Axion in my view. It also looks like they just copied my links from my pitiful little site for the most part. I'm sure someone will think I'm over-reacting but I paid my money so I get to express my views.

     

    I finished reviewing all the links while my mother napped. Now to get them live on the site ASAP.
    9 Feb 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    I didn't get you at first, now that I looked at your site again I do. Don't you think with a direct line to management in the initial promotion of Axion's products that TG would have approved the brochure and use of the names?
    9 Feb 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    I'm confused who is missing. What is the outrage?
    9 Feb 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    mrholty, I second that. Bang, can you clarify for us please.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I do not see a direct connection between Rosewater and NS or BMW. They are trading on potential client names that have no direct connection to Rosewater, nor are they in direct contact with those two companies. I think they need to stick to their own knitting.

     

    There is no joint effort between them, yet Rosewater described them as a "Collaborative Partners". I think it is unethical and misleading advertising.
    9 Feb 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Jesus, BW, love you like a brother but you need to chill out.

     

    Where there is no harm there is no foul. I fail to see the harm in Rosewater touting every Axion partnership that can enhance the stature and credibility of any PbC product.

     

    A partner of Axion in the development and commercialization of the PbC is a partner of Rosewater.

     

    There is a difference between 'customer' and 'partner'.

     

    That is absolutely and legitimately a list of 'Collaborative Partners' of the PbC.

     

    Rosewater is just trying to sell Powercubes, man, give them a break.

     

    D
    9 Feb 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Exide is down for the following 3 things:

     

    1. Most of the profit is a tax deal

     

    2. Missed expected revenue by almost $90 million

     

    3. Lowered guidance for 2012 & will not give expectations on earnings anymore.
    9 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. They are firmly on the floor and show no signs of getting up anytime soon.
    9 Feb 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    ANTHLJ,

     

    "Firmly on the floor with no signs of getting up"

     

    Exide is a manufacturing company with plants in Italy, Germany, and other European countries as well as the US. I certainly expected a drop in sales this year with the European crisis. I don't necessarily see a continued drop in sales. I see a good chance of US sales ramping up.

     

    You might be right but I would like a little more clarity on why you believe the company can not improve. Thanks for any clarification.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    What I have never liked is their debt and their goodwill/intangibles on their balance sheet. Also, their management seems incompetent. It should not be so hard for them to make a decent profit. They only have one other major competitor, JCI. I am glad I never got mixed up with them, although I have been very close at times.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Bad mgmt usually stays bad. Sometimes shorting those kinds of companies works really well, but my own approach is to simply avoid investing in people like that.

     

    Thank goodness that TG seems like the opposite.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Clearly the company has been struggling for some time. It passed through a major restructuring with associated costs dragging heavily on the bottom line. With restructuring largely complete the numbers are not improving. They should be by now. Sure general economic conditions are flowing against them, but over time you expect effective cost cutting measures to bite and to be reflected in the bottom line. With their turnover, small percentage gains in cost efficiencies can make a significant difference. However, rather than reaping these benefits, if anything, the latest figures suggest an organization that is struggling to move forward and is even slipping back a little. I also don't like the absence of guidance for coming quarters. I suppose they don't like what they see in the crystal ball. Whether the weather, Europe, large debt, etc. I have lost patience with Exide, and above all, wish I had bailed earlier today, instead of giving them the benefit of doubt for yet another quarter.

     

    Futurist, please tell me where you see signs for optimism.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Yep Investor, that is how I feel. That's how Buffet invested too. He had to like the management and want to work with them before he would invest. If I did not agree with managements decisions and from what I know and have seen of their character, I would not be invested in the company regardless of the technology.

     

    As long as they stay out of debt and slowly progress forward I am happy. I know there will be bumps. It can't be easy bringing new technology to the manufacturing and commercial stages, especially with tier 1 OEM's, but as long as they don't owe the bank anything, that is one major obstacle avoided that will allow the product to progress at its own pace to success.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    jk, well put. Put your money on good people and give them time to flourish.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I bought 200 shares as an opening position. Tomorrow I will take my losses like a man and move on. Frees up some powder for AXPW. Oh wow.

     

    Quick trading advice please. I don't want to enter a market order to sell my XIDE. I created a limit order at $3.00 for my shares for the open. Won't that get me the best price offered above $3.00 on the open?
    9 Feb 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Yes, BW you should get whatever the going rate is for the open. I too often put in a number below the market to ensure a fill but almost always get filled at a price better than my limit.
    9 Feb 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    ENS is probably a bigger competitor than JCI.
    9 Feb 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor..i agree with all your comments and especially about XIDE management...they are crappy. ENS just reported not long ago and beat earnings with excellent mgt. JCI the same way. XIDE lost their Wal-mart contract a couple of years ago due to a poor quality product and warranty claims. I will never invest in them. Someone mentioned shorting "poor mgt companies" and this was one of them but too late now. All the above is why I hate to see AXPW work with them first. Bad reputation. Plus what they did with AXPW even makes it worse.
    9 Feb 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, not willing to ride XIDE out. "If the deed need be done, let it be done quickly!" Outta XIDE.
    9 Feb 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    BW: Sell some in-the-$ call options to get a few more percent back. There's contracts expiring next week (2/18), 3/17, ...

     

    When the options are exercised, you get the strike price, keep the premium and your expense is only trade costs (usually includes a small fee per contract) and the small SEC fee (something down around 1/1000 of a penny/$) imposed at the time you sell the contracts.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    anthlj,

     

    Several facts are encouraging to me:

     

    Fiscal 2012 third quarter aftermarket unit volume decreased approximately 13% as compared to the prior year third quarter, while units sold to OE customers increased approximately 29% quarter-over-quarter.

     

    The Company experienced increased sales in the Industrial Europe & Rest of World ("ROW") Motive Power channel and higher unit sales in the original equipment ("OE") channel in both Transportation segments.

     

    Selling and administrative expenses for the fiscal 2012 third quarter were $96.2 million or 12.2% of net sales versus the comparable prior year period of $106.6 million or 13.3% of net sales. Excluding a nominal favorable foreign currency translation impact, expenses decreased approximately 9.6% primarily the result of lower wages and related benefits.

     

    Exide has worked for years to lower operating costs. These steps are paying off. They are continuing to build into the upcoming AGM wave of business. This is very encouraging.

     

    I realize that many here think AGM is a bad future business because of its bad rap in the stop/start cycle. However, the Lux research reports show that it will be a huge profit center in the near future.
    I am not happy with the performance. But I see some positive items in the report.
    10 Feb 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

     

    BW, I think the old adage was meant to work out the other way. :-)
    10 Feb 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Sorry, woke up late and stock was sold at $3.20. Was trading at 3.14 when I looked at it so 3 cents off the high of $3.23. I think I did better than a market sell order but who knows. I'll remember your advice next time. Not a pleasant experience with XIDE for me and I am not willing to wait for wonderfulness. I wasn't expecting them to mess their pants.
    10 Feb 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "I wasn't expecting them to mess their pants"

     

    LoL! As long as we don't mess ours ...

     

    It sounds like you did OK.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    One thing about replacement batteries, it's pay me now or pay me later... so demand that has been somewhat deferred for the present, is likely to show up later one way or the other.
    9 Feb 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Anybody notice that even without the AH trade we closed at the lowest price, $0.434, since 1/9/2012, $0.4201? Even the day of share issuance we didn't close this low ($0.47).

     

    I know y'all think I'm a naysayer, but I've just been passing on what the charts tell me and what I can glean (as a best guess) from the daily short sales and buy:sell ratios.

     

    We did make a higher low today, 1/2 penny, but if we don't hold at least a high of $0.46 tomorrow, the falling triangle, which breaks down 64% of the time per Bulkowski, remains in play.

     

    As of today on the TA front there are no oscillators trying to struggle up - stochastic gave up the ghost and so did accum/distr.

     

    I *am* waiting to add below $0.42.

     

    I'll do my usual later and I'll try to keep it shorter since I'm sure it gets tiresome reading a lot of the same stuff repeatedly (it's tiresome writing it too!).

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Not tiresome to read, but imagine it tiresome to write. Thanks for your hard work.
    9 Feb 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/9/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 62,710, 273,003 (including AH, 298,502), and 0 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 335,713 (including AH, 361,212).

     

    Buy:sell at EOD was 1:4.35 but there was an unusual large AH trade, 25.5K @ $0.43, that moved it to 1:4.76. That latter figure is the one I use.

     

    There were only 80 trades, giving an average trade size (including AH) of ~4,515 shares per trade (excluding the AH trade, 79 trades yields an average trade size of ~4,250).

     

    The trend started of nasty right away today. By 10:06 "sells" slightly exceeded "buys" and it was all downhill from there forward.

     

    Generally, price followed a similar trend, opening at $0.46, a price that was never seen again. Just visually inspecting, it looks like 90%+ of the trades were at or below $0.44. At 10:00:03 there was one 10K trade at $0.45 and all the rest at that price (9 trades) were 100 share trades, likely market-maker attempts to get some action going so some money could be made.

     

    I mentioned yesterday that the *potential* bear flag that might form broke and was replaced by a descending triangle, which breaks downward 64% of the time, per Bulkowski. The triangle is still in play and will remain in play if we can't make a high of $0.46 again tomorrow.

     

    If we *do* make that high, it *may* still be in play further out as the critical price is $0.48. But it would take a few days to see. All any price below $0.48 is doing is extending the "length" of the triangle out *if* we see the "touches" of the support and resistance lines continue as needed to maintain the triangle formation.

     

    The two pitiful oscillators that were trying to curl upwards yesterday gave up today. All oscillators are now starting or already in downtrends.

     

    We closed at the lowest price today since the $0.4201 of 1/9.

     

    When looking at the following daily short sales from FINRA, bear in mind that out-of-market trades are *not* included. Including the 25,499 share trade in the volume and as a short, because it was a sell (we really don't know if it was a short sale), would make the short percentage for today read ~40.2%, moving it slightly above what I think is "normal".

     

    The rising short percentage suggests to me that fresh sell orders are still coming in as any shares received in the market-maker portfolio backing prior sell orders are becoming exhausted. IOW, things are apparently returning to "normal".

     

    I still believe we will see prices below $0.42 coming. I believe it will be near-term and likely short-lived. I do not discount high $0.3x as a possibility.

     

    My hope is that Quercus does not decide to come back into the market too soon - that would be tough on some longs who are already at "full strength".

     

    201 Vol 2476749, Sht 948628 38.30% LHC 0.3800 0.550 0.4700 b:s 1:1.20
    202 Vol 0584698, Sht 181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.480 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    203 Vol 1019813, Sht 235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.469 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1
    206 Vol 0392838, Sht 202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.465 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    207 Vol 0413428, Sht 094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.465 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1
    208 Vol 0570071, Sht 115522 20.26% LHC 0.4200 0.460 0.4500 b:s 1:1.06
    209 Vol 0335713, Sht 094570 28.17% LHC 0.4251 0.460 0.4300 b:s 1:4.76

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Do you talk to your significant other in acronyms? WWDBR = "When will dinner be ready?" AWOOB="Are we out of beer?" YIAOTDC="Yes, I am on the damn computer."
    9 Feb 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Bang..you're a NUT ! LOL

     

    btw....post me another link to your site. please :)
    9 Feb 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I might as well - she has little interest in this stuff unless it starts with "I made us a bunch of $ today by ..."! And she stops listening after "$".

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    5:32 PM More on Exide Technologies' FQ3: Unit volumes for the aftermarket car battery business fell 13% Y/Y, contributing to Exide's top-line miss. Moreover, Exide warns it expects FY12 operating income to be less than previously forecast, due to poor auto and industrial battery sales, and it won't provide specific guidance for the forseeable future. Exide also had a disappointing earnings report in November. XIDE -19.8% AH. (PR) [Earnings, On the Move] 1 Comment
    9 Feb 2012, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    At least in Europe we're having one of the mildest winters in a very long time and tough winters are the biggest driver of replacement battery sales; which is why the December and March quarters are usually the strongest for the battery makers.

     

    In my little corner of the world the December quarter was lovely with lots of sun and warm temperatures, exactly what battery companies don't want. So far, the month of February has been a battery manufacturers dream with biting cold across much of the continent.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    3:42 PM Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.5%) plans to unveil its luxury SUV crossover Model X tonight in its L.A. design studio. Whether or not the new model scores a hit with consumers, Edmunds editor John O'Dell questions the automaker's long term success as a producer of only electric vehicles. He notes that to succeed Tesla will have to "become a permanent partner of someone else or part of someone else — the electric car arm of XYZ — or it's going to have to find a market selling its expertise." [Consumer, Quick Ideas] 3 Comments
    9 Feb 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    You know what is funny, I hate Telsa the stock, I have no want for an electric car but I like their designs.

     

    A someone with two little kids the door design on the X if it works as advertised is genius.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I'm the first to admit that the Rubenesque Fisker Karma is without question the most beautiful car I've ever seen gasoline or electric.

     

    My opinion will probably change after I get a chance to gawk at the new Acura NSX in Geneva next month, but I had one of the originals in the early 90s and it's the only car I've ever owned that I still regret selling. – http://bit.ly/A0pHdR

     

    Seriously, I deserve a nice HEV don't I?
    10 Feb 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    They are both quite pretty little things. And yes, John, you definitely do deserve a nice HEV. If anyone questions that, you just tell them that I said so. ;-)
    10 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The reported short interest for January 31, 2012 was published last night – a whopping 9,490 shares.

     

    In the other incidental statistics category:

     

    * January 2012 volume was 11.98 million shares, compared to 4.12 million shares last year; and
    * February 2012 volume was 5.87 million shares through yesterday, compared to 5.46 million shares for the entire month last year
    * Year to date volume of 17.85 million shares is looking pretty solid compared to calendar year volume of 22 million shares in 2010 and 77.7 million shares last year.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "The reported short interest for January 31, 2012 was published last night – a whopping 9,490 shares."

     

    For a little context, that's about the sum of two "average" trades yesterday. LoL!

     

    Since days to cover is one of the stats, a quick mental estimate says we'd need a couple decimal places to report it somewhat accurately.

     

    If the market-makers shut down for a day or two just before the period close, the quantity would likely be zero.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    New Battery Could Lead to Cheaper, More Efficient Solar Energy

     

    http://bit.ly/yDbIFQ Brief snippet:

     

    ScienceDaily (Feb. 9, 2012) — A joint research project between the University of Southampton and lithium battery technology company REAPsystems has found that a new type of battery has the potential to improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of solar power
    10 Feb 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "... the research showed that the lithium battery has an energy efficiency of 95 per cent whereas the lead-acid batteries commonly used today only have around 80 per cent. The weight of the lithium batteries is lower and they have a longer life span than the lead-acid batteries reaching up to 1,600 charge/discharge cycles, meaning they would need to be replaced less frequently".

     

    It's too bad that weight is irrelevant in most large-scale fixed installations, unless you want to put the storage on the roof. And they should have compared the weight to PbC, I think, since it seems to be an emerging available technology which would be a competitor. It is 30% lighter than traditional LA batteries and has an as-yet unknown lifetime (depending on SOC range, I guess, PbC is over 200K cycles in testing). I don't recall if lifetime for repeated cycling to 100% DoD has been found yet.

     

    Does anyone recall the PbC efficiency?

     

    I wonder how the expense of the batteries will compare. If more expensive, will the increased efficiency more-than offset the cost differential? TCO is the most import calculation, which would include any efficiency differences.

     

    All questions for which answers will appear in the future I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Outside of our little universe the PbC doesn't exist. JP points out quite often that 90% of the market has never heard of Axion or the PbC. Remember that most of the world is only interested in "best available" technology.
    10 Feb 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I think you are right -- but it's also what attracts me to AXPW. As Marc Faber stated in his recent Bloomberg interview -- "I never buy anything in the limelight [its less likely to be undervalued.]"
    10 Feb 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I will give you a dime for another dozen of these articles. Thanks for sharing nonetheless, Alpha.
    10 Feb 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Hey, Alpha posted something relevant to our interests, so all I can say is "thanks!".

     

    To *me*, every such article that lets me know what *may* be coming is valuable.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock just released their form 13-G stating an 8% interest in VRTX....maybe someone can find out if they reported AXPW stake?
    10 Feb 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Wow,
    Xide is already down $0.90/share from yesterday's close. Looks like people bid the stock up over the last couple of weeks hoping for good news and are now dumping because of the lower sales in Europe and the US. Granted most of the drop happened in after hours selling, so it has really only gone down another 9-10 cents this morning, but the volume is way up. Be interested to hear from any of you who are invested as to what was on the CC today?
    10 Feb 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Now you see why TG hired a marketing rep...AONE UP HUGE ON THIS NEWS

     

    A123 Systems (Nasdaq: AONE), announced that it will supply six Grid Battery Systems (GBSs) to Northern Powergrid, an electricity distribution network operator that delivers power to more than 3.8 million customers in the U.K.
    The GBSs will be designed for peak-load shifting and to manage fluctuations in voltage on the U.K.'s power grid. Expected to be operational by the end of 2012, the systems will be deployed as part of the Customer-Led Network Revolution (CLNR), the U.K.'s largest smart grid project funded through the Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets' (Ofgem) Low Carbon Networks Fund.
    News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    10 Feb 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    My immediate reaction is: So how can li-ion get a contract win for a stationary application? I thought it is a solution by far best suited to mobile applications where weight and size are big considerations.

     

    Maybe it's those pesky government subsidies again? 8^)
    10 Feb 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    <<LT .....AONE UP HUGE ON THIS NEWS>>

     

    Sarcasm???
    10 Feb 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    No sarcasm....it is up a big % after being downgraded yesterday with at .50 cent target.

     

    I posted that to reinforce just how big the grid is....They just sold 6 (SIX) systems in the UK....How would we feel if that was SIX - Power Cubes?

     

    TG knows this grid thing is beginning to move fast and he needs sales. A good fit came up and he grabbed him quick. AXPW "has" to land some of these deals sooner rather than later.
    10 Feb 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The SIX SYSTEMS headline is far more impressive than the detail.

     

    One is a 2.5 MW - 5MWh system
    Two are 100 kW - 200 kWh systems
    Three are 50 kW - 100 kWh systems

     

    By my count, that works out to 5.7 MWh for a company with annual capacity of 600 MWh.

     

    http://yhoo.it/x2iGgG
    10 Feb 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    I thought Vani was an auto man?? What does he know about grids concerns me. What did we do to miss this sale??

     

    A123 HAD an advantage over us last year and i hope Vani knows enough to make sure WE get these sales. Like i said well know in a short period of time, this sale maybe should have been ours if we had an informed sales force showing our product and it's advantages. Maybe we weren't a good fit also???

     

    Food for thought...

     

    map
    10 Feb 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Using lithium-ion for two-hour load shifting is like using a thoroughbred to pull a plow. It may be able to do the work, but it's a terrible waste of expensive horse flesh.
    10 Feb 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... I get the feeling that you might think that Axion is further down the road than it really is. Vani, I believe, is an auto guy but VE is full of grid sales experts.
    10 Feb 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Drich....I might be too conservative. What time frame are you thinking for the next grid?? Thanks....

     

    I thought Vani is head of Marketing and Sales. So doesn't this fall under his umbrella as well. I fully understand he hasn't even sat at his desk yet and put his pens in place. But LT just posted that TG found a good fit and grabbed it, so lets get him up to speed so that he maybe can have these potential rival customers throw the breaks on and LOOK at what we have to offer.

     

    All that takes is a phone call to the right person...I hate seeing a sale go bye bye when we need to see if we did everything possible to get it...The clock is still ticking and a year goes by petty fast !!

     

    That is why i am curious of what your time frame is for that first BIG sale from anyone !!

     

    map
    10 Feb 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... Next Grid? I don't know what you mean.

     

    For battery adoption, as in "PowerCube" but any at all, I'm looking for small demonstrations out 2015-2020 before large utilities will want them. Mind you that demonstrations would be big business to Axion and not so much to 'over-built' capacity vendors like A123. What I'm counting on is some commercial entity jumping the gun off good preliminary results with utilities, like say, a shopping mall time shifting their AC load or Walmart.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I worked for a manufacturer for a bit and with the sales team at times. Normally for a small company the sales team doesn't normally visit every customer except for large accounts. By and large the sales are contracted out to "sales representatives". These guys get a small commission and generate much of the leads. Viridity sounds like one of these guys to me.

     

    Basically, you don't expect the head sales guy himself to be calling up customers out of a phone book. More or less, he manages these auxiliary sales teams and defines strategy and pricing terms. Sometimes give a demo or deal with customer requests, relay technical issues.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    A123 had been at the commercial sales stage for several years before they even went public in 2009. Axion is not yet at the commercial stage with its product.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRich...Ok thanks for your opinion

     

    Map
    10 Feb 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Ranma

     

    I disagree, if a sale of a customer is sitting on the fence this is where Vani earns his salary. I don't expect him cold calling but i do expect him touting his product at various events...Just sitting behind a desk waiting won't cut it!!imho

     

    I ran a sales team, if i just sat back our sales dropped. I closed so many deals that people thought were dead. Ask BANG, I am sure he did the same running a department...Betcha he was out promoting and closing !!!

     

    MAP
    10 Feb 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sheesh, MAP. I get the feeling that when Axion rests at a buck per for a month, you'll be climbing walls why it's not a buck fifty the next week.

     

    Have a little patience, bro.

     

    Not one of us knows the time schedules for any application. Not one. All we can do is guess.

     

    Relax into your fave easy chair! The best thing that has recently happened is we now have some money, and we now are getting a marketing team together. That's just in the last three weeks!

     

    Axion is moving along just fine.

     

    It's not the destination, it's the journey that counts. Right now, for me, is the time to relax in the easy chair and let things develop, as they will.

     

    The best thing that has happened recently is how much safer I feel about my Axion investment. We have officially arrived beyond the going concern issue. I'm perfectly happy to wait a few weeks for the next event.

     

    It's zzzzzzzzzzzzzz time. Wake me up when something happens, because the only thing that will happen, will be something good. Waiting for good is much more fun than waiting for bad.

     

    I sleep better.

     

    10 Feb 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    MAP, no disagreement here. At the early stage I would expect Vani to be fully active, just instead of looking for prospects at the ground level he'd be at various industry events as you say.

     

    The manufacturer I worked for was a more mature business, so I suppose it would have been more accurate of me to say that that is what I'd expect in the future. In any case, I just wanted to point out what I thought Viridity's role is - ground level sales generation. These would be the guys who would get a deal like the one A123 got.
    10 Feb 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Also you are right about customers sitting on the fence. I recall that's when our lead sales guys would jump in too. Of course, you would know that better than me.
    10 Feb 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Grid's potential for PbC is so huge... I guess how to grab this low hanging fruits in large quantities must have been on Vani's top priority list. However, it is up to us to dig out how the progress has been made at the incoming CC.
    I am also wondering if PbC/powercube has any industry engineering and manufacturing issues related to grid application (it is the case for auto, right?) need to be solved.
    10 Feb 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    MAYA.....Guessing????

     

    I know, we are all guessing. I remember your prediction ( guessing ) breaking 60 cents about a week ago and we won't close below 42 cents ever again.. Get me to that buck and i will really be happy...

     

    Maybe you are misinterpreting what i am sayng. Not once have you seen me ask at what price we will be at a specific time recently. I have kept my comments to the hiring and building of a staff.

     

    I guess when you have done that for the better part of your career you worry about it...Wish i could just sit back. But i don't when it comes to investments...

     

    From reading most posts neither do these people as they are always throwing ideas out....So when a poster is pointing out i might be too conservative in my thinking i was just asking for a clarification from DRich. Which helped me understand this senerio better,

     

    Now the weekend arrives and it is time to work on my other interests..By the way how's the book coming along?? Getting close yet??

     

    Enjoy the weekend everyone. Gotta head out to the Doc's again..

     

    MAP
    10 Feb 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    What would really be interesting is to the price AONE got for the batteries it supplied. Was it more than their cost of around $1200/kWh?

     

    If they are selling just to get their foot in the door and losing money on the sale, then I'm not impressed. At ALL.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Note that AXPW doesn't make the Inverters in the PowerCubes.

     

    We know they've used (Private) Princeton Power Systems for the demonstration unit at HQ. But since they're private, I /we don't have a good feel for how fast they could ramp up for major production.

     

    But inverter production is a dependency that AXPW doesn't control.

     

    Not clear if using other Inverter providers may potentially slow the "acceptance process" down. One would think ZBB might become a player by June when supposedly their 60 kW, and 125KW Inverters should be UL certified.

     

    So there could be integration issues ... this differs from the "Axion Inside" model, though one would hope it wouldn't be a big deal.

     

    Different projects would have a varying number of "alternative energy" inputs (including 0,) so to this uninitiated observer, the inverter selection may have to be "customized" for every project. Assume that become "S.O.P" kinda quickly, so this is all just something to keep in mind, and thus be prepared for yet another "huge potential" taking longer than we might hope for.
    12 Feb 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    There may also be price v. quality tradeoffs to be discovered over time when it comes to the inverters as well.

     

    I suppose parts that have been UL certified shouldn't create a problem, but just as with AGM batteries in Start-Stop, something that meets a set of tests in one environment doesn't guarantee how long it will last or what the warranty claims will be in "real world applications."

     

    Worst Case Scenario would be damage to the PowerCube "reputation" and possible finger pointing between companies like for example the Gulf Well Explosion story that is still being played out.
    12 Feb 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    FWIW In Nov 2010, I spoke post CC with an engineer at ZBB and he indicated that they were aware of Axion and recognized the potential for their respective products to work together... nothing really specific, just an affirmation that their PECC would be agnostic to some extent about storage technologies and that PbC could be a fit...
    12 Feb 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    WTB: My guess is that progression of sales ramp will be relatively slow and PPS would likely not have a problem meeting demand early on. With good guidance from Axion, later steeper ramps might be well handled too.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Feb 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I'm with HTL, even having little knowledge of PPS, I would think that they would be able to produce in house and at least keep pace with Axion. Remember Axion only has the capacity of a few hundred batteries per day. Depending on the size of the Cube, that could be 5 systems, 2 or maybe even just 1. If they cant produce that quickly, Im sure that they would be able to outsource to a contract manufacturer of PCBs.

     

    I agree that there are probably unique integration issues with each system as the customer will likely want the PC and inverter to interface with some of its own proprietary systems. The software might present a small stumbling block.
    12 Feb 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Right, all up for grabs and the utilities likely don't even know about PbC yet!
    10 Feb 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Ranma ... "don't even know about PbC". Sad, but true. A123 has an advantage because Li-on has been tested for years now, in one chemistry or another (most people don't discern between). Axion needs a little testing time to get utility attention beyond demonstration projects. I'm hoping the Li-on testing shows batteries to be a solution and the economics of PbC to be irresistible.
    10 Feb 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    NYT blogpost discussing a National Electricity Forum held by the secretary of energy. Dr Chu talked about grid storage. As summarized in the Times post:

     

    "Another would be using batteries, the secretary of energy said. The problem is that at the moment, the batteries needed to store just one kilowatt-hour (the amount needed to run an window air conditioner for an hour) cost about $350.

     

    That is steep, given that the average price of that amount of energy is about 11 cents. But at $100, Dr. Chu said, batteries would “go viral’’ and change the energy equation."

     

    The article then goes on to talk about storing energy by heating or cooling water.

     

    http://nyti.ms/xwdbBo

     

    The presentations haven't yet been posted but eventually they should be available at this link:

     

    http://bit.ly/zTtEMC
    10 Feb 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The batteries are only half of the issue. The inverters and control electronics to manage a KW of power add another $400 to the tab, so the Good Secretary is beyond delusional when he talks about $100 systems.
    10 Feb 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I am so reassured when I hear my national energy policy leadership sound as if they are tripping on LSD...

     

    When one realizes that Chu is thinking of battery prices for lithium-ion dropping to less than $100 per kw, its apparent that he truly is, in Harry Potter parlance, "mental".
    10 Feb 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I always preferred the Rocky parlance "mentally irregular."
    10 Feb 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Young Frankenstein: "Abbie Normal".
    10 Feb 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Re: Secretary Chu's mental state.

     

    The sad part is that he's not deranged. He's lying.
    He has talked before to groups of knowledgeable folks and made perfectly rational speeches. He KNOWS the statements he is making are nonsense; he has been given a script and told to follow it. He's sold out to the POTUS and the gang in power and is spouting the party line. He must badly want to keep his job for another 9 months or so, so he lies.

     

    If only the "cause" were just........
    10 Feb 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    But what does the inverter price to manged power graph look like?

     

    Is this a case of "Go Big or Go Home?"

     

    Haven't we discussed pulling the inverter out of the PowerCube and even being used for Multiple Cubes at once? I recall there were temperature requirement differences between the Batteries and the Inverter, but I thought it was more than just that. Is that correct?

     

    Anyone got real data or even WAGs?

     

    Good web sites for understanding inverters?

     

    Would love to understand Inverter current and predicted future pricing better.
    13 Feb 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    I can understand the anxiety for something to happen since the stock price plummeted. When I read the comments about our newly hired salesman, I think we tend to forget the progress that has been made without an official sales force.

     

    We have long term testing relationships with BMW and Norfolk Southern. Car companies take an extremely long time to test new products. The fact that a salesman with experience in the automobile industry was hired is a very good signal that testing may be coming to a successful end. I can understand the lack of info from NSC due to the highly public failure of the original batteries.

     

    We recently discovered Rosewater, a sales company led by Axion stock holders that acts as an unpaid sales force. It is a world wide operation that will help with oil rigs and residential applications.

     

    We also have a partner with the grid in Viridity. They are utility insiders who know the needs of the grid inside and out. If our PbC technology works, they will be a great sales force.

     

    We also have other smaller or lesser known applications in the works including military and solar tree applications. Other automobile companies and locomotives are also potentially involved.

     

    I would love to hear some good, definite news that sent the stock soaring. Based on the consistent narrow trade price at lower volume, I believe JP's supply and demand is about to take over again to send the price higher.

     

    I am a little anxious like most who have posted concerns. I realize that Axion could still fail. There are no guarantees, especially with the world economy like it is. But I don't know of another R & D company with so many potential markets that needs only one of these markets to be a very successful company.

     

    I look forward to reading every one of your posts. I appreciate the healthy skepticism expressed in many of your posts. I learn from each one of you. I just wanted to remind myself and everyone else where we stand as we wait through this time of low stock price and news blackout.
    10 Feb 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Well said jveal. The only thing I believe we need to be concerned about right now is our patience. It gets tested at times.
    10 Feb 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Jveal:
    Excellent comment.
    11 Feb 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 12:59 77 trades average size of 2,253. Buy:sell 3.1:1 on total volume of 173,494. Our price range is both lower and compressed.

     

    These things suggest retail buyers are providing the buying pressure.

     

    Recall the market participants handbook link I posed a while back. These late comers are being setup for a (small?) push down that will scare them out of the stock I think.

     

    The largest trade through this time is 15,240 (EDIT: and 2x10K trades). There *seems* to be no big buyers playing today.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Would you mind posting the link again? Thanks.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/yPYM4I

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    SPECIAL SITUATIONS WAS GONE BY YEAR END.

     

    They just filed their Form 13F Holdings Report for December 31st and there is no line item for Axion Power – http://1.usa.gov/zn6W30

     

    In comparison, their September 30th report reflected ownership of 3,152,246 shares. – http://1.usa.gov/ulFZ8z

     

    I'm a very happy boy because that's one more name I get to cross off my list.

     

    It really is amazing when you think of the pressure they applied during 2011. They sold 8,771,930 shares into a market that traded a total of 22 million shares the year before. When you consider that the 77.7 million shares of trading in 2011 was half buys and half sells, 22.6% of all shares that were sold during the year came from a single holder. When you toss in another 5,633,091 shares from Quercus, the two major sellers represented 38.9% of all selling.

     

    I think we all know who those 14.4 million shares were absorbed by.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    HOORAY!

     

    With 18.2M shares (divide by 2) Oct.-Dec. and adding in Quercus, can we determine if there was either other institutionals selling or tax-loss selling be likely?

     

    Hate to miss an opportunity to make a WAG! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    RE: "can we determine if there was either other institutionals selling or tax-loss selling be likely?" (HTL)

     

    One thought that occurred to me a few days ago is that the placement agents must have had some lead time to conduct their due diligence and to rope in accredited investors to fill the placement... which could plausibly have extended back into last calendar year as the deal was sealed on Jan 31-Feb 3.

     

    If I were a savvy millionaire accredited investor, and was being contacted for a private placement, and was knowledgeable that most placements go at a moving average / volume weighted strike price, AND if I were not terribly scrupulous about how I make money: Wouldn't I rationally sell my losses from $1-$2+ purchases in early private placements to 1) realize capital losses for tax purposes and 2) to drive the price lower to sweeten the private placement strike price I knew would be coming?

     

    We will never know how this business was conducted. But it seems a plausible AND rational way to make money if I were an accredited investor and was being roped into a second offering in early December for a company I already had stake in - sell what I already owned to drive the price down. Not very scrupulous, but I'm not sure how it would ever be found out.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Rather suspicious then, that the deal was sealed just past the 30 days wash sale rule?
    10 Feb 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Pztrick44: To you I offer my most prized, gold-plated, custom-fitted, digitally-equipped, solar-powered with embedded PbC storage (of course! :) ...

     

    tin-foil hat!

     

    Wear it in good health and keep up the good work! It has served me faithfully!

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I can promise you for the hell Special Situations gave the stock last year, they were nowhere near this new deal.

     

    That would be a really poor effort to making money. So they sell, lets say, 5M shares in the last half of 2011 at a loss, so that they can buy 5M more shares at around the price they were selling their old 5M shares for? In a nano-cap that stuff just isn't going to give you the outcome you are prescribing, and for an over half-a-billion dollar fund to waste its time with such nonsense on such miniscule holdings seems implausible to me. You can bet your bottom dollar no public company would ever rope an investor like that into their next offering anyway -- it is no good for anybody.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    RE: "So they sell, lets say, 5M shares in the last half of 2011 at a loss, so that they can buy 5M more shares at around the price they were selling their old 5M shares for?" (Jakurtz)

     

    You're right, Jakurtz, there isn't a very compelling profit to be made. Though one advantage would be to at least see your investment raising new capital funds and your own position breaking even. However, perhaps such a person also wasn't expecting the price to rebound to $0.6X within a month before they could dodge the wash sale / participate in the private placement.
    10 Feb 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, jakurtz. It doesn't make sense that the new management of Special Sits would care much about their miniscule Axion holding. What I find humorous is that as they were selling Axion, they were adding Exide.

     

    Thanks for all those 28 cents shares I bought, Special Sitz. Don't let the door hit you in the butt.
    10 Feb 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I hear you, but once an investor crashes a party he does get invited back to the next one.
    10 Feb 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Actually, investors who behave badly in one deal are less likely to be invited to the next one because investors who stray too far outside the lines can have a bad impact on other clients of the same broker.
    10 Feb 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Oops, that is supposed to say, "...does NOT get invited back to the party." ...big difference.

     

    Another feeble attempt at wit bites the dust.
    10 Feb 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    VERY nice to have that nailed down. Thanks for checking.

     

    Now, who's doing all the selling now? Seems plausible that it's related to the recent placement, but would be very interesting to know.

     

    Maybe someone involved will post here with an explanation. Thanks in advance and welcome to the family!
    10 Feb 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Or, those of us who have sold should just confess and get it over with :)
    10 Feb 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    "...all the selling now?" Sure appears to be drying up. At least at this price. Now all us holders are just gonna be on news watch. Many sets of eyes will be fixed on the horizon, and every day that passes is one closer to landfall. Those that want out right now are pretty much out. While those that want in can nibble their way to a decent position. If we move up 10 cents, maybe that peels off some further supply. Bad news would spook many, but that chance seems now remote for the time being. Good news will start a scramble. And thus everyone waits. This is starting to seem now like trench warfare, both sides digging in, each banking up ammo and victuals, waiting for the first starshell to burst...
    10 Feb 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Since I am all in, the only way I can get more shares is to sell and repurchase at a lower price. I've had some success and gotten burned a couple of times.

     

    My best was a sell of 10000 shares the day before the capital raise. I sold at $0.615 and purchased shares of HUM and PPO. I sold them three days later for profits of 2.5% and 18% respectively. I then purchased 14531 shares of Axion at $0.44 with the proceeds.
    10 Feb 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jveal: Congrats! Excellent moves. Well done.
    10 Feb 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Hat's off jveal... all respect. Would I could be that smart myself. But I've never been good at ...Tie-ming. .... I know if "I" try to get cute, I'm gonna hurt myself. One day we're gonna wake up to big fresh news. And I don't wanna be out. So I have my core, which for me is sizable, and I'm hanging on to the bitter end. "Goin' all the way, till the wheels fall off and burn... " ;)
    10 Feb 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    I have learned to be much more careful than I used to be. I have lost more than I care to mention. Axion has restored all my loses from trading other stock and more since I am now averaged below 36 cents. Even with the above mentioned successful trade I am only a positive net of 3270 shares of Axion.
    10 Feb 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Pz,

     

    Back in APC 62, toward the bottom, Feb. 7, Mr. Peterson posted a comment with regard to that theory and why it doesn't hold water.
    11 Feb 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    jveal,

     

    I'll bet those were your shares I bought at .60. Glad to hear that the deal was immediately productive for somebody! ;-)

     

    If you're still looking to add, I have a block I would be willing to part with for .60/shr. See how that "full circle" thing works? It's beautiful, isn't it?

     

    Honestly, I'm OK with my .60 block. I'm still averaged at .43.

     

    But seriously, if your interested, drop me a line. We can probably work something out. ;-)
    11 Feb 2012, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Egg: Wanna bet within three months you will regret your offer? Or even better, that you would never, ever make that offer?

     

    Yeah, so do that qualifying thing, while Axion vaults 60 cents ;-)

     

    I'm totally clueless as to when these mid-forty cent available cheapo priced shares will dry up. But they will. Very soon. And zero news is neccesary to make this happen.

     

    We have a party going on. The APC's intent is to invite all, as they can afford it.
    11 Feb 2012, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Eggwis, If I had the discipline of HTL I would not have sold 15000 shares at 47.5 and chased them when the price started to rise. I paid 54 cents and lost about 2000 shares. If I had just waited I could have bought them back at 44 cents after the stock offering. At first I thought HTL was crazy to sell his trading blocks around 48 cents and then not buy back in for such a long time. Whether he did or not, he had the chance to buy back in at a profit.

     

    I agree with Maya that the price should soon be rising again. I plan to cautiously look for opportunities to sell portions at the high and buy back on the pull backs. I will read everything that HTL writes and try to be more disciplined. Thanks HTL for all your work.
    11 Feb 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    I'm pretty sure it would work out satisfactorily for me. Ya see, 10K shares at .6 - $18 commission ($9 to sell & $9 to buy) when I buy back = 13,911 shares. If I can nearly guarantee myself a tidy 39% almost instantly, I'll take any deal I can find, all day long .

     

    But I agree, in a relatively short period of time, I don't expect to be very concerned about it. That's why I bought them @ $.60. Current price is but a small bump in the road, IMO. If I were to sell anything, it would definitely not be because I were trying to reduce my holdings.

     

    That would be the party in Copan?
    11 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Well done!

     

    Right now I'm riding several small positions in (UPRO) and short two covered call options contracts over them which expire 3/17. I expect profits on these to allow me to get very near to 100K of (AXPW).

     

    Friday almost scared me out, but I did a quick review of the 1-year chart, saw that the low stayed within the rising trading channel it has been following, and I held fast through the day. Also, during this channel, a fall on Fridays followed by a rise beginning either the next day or two/three days after is the common pattern.

     

    Since SPX bumped my expected resistance Thursday, this weakness Friday seemed rational. I expect it to run at that resistance again.

     

    I'm ready when the time comes as my dry powder is still over 50%. When I take the profits (hopefully) on UPRO and the options, it'll put me over 70% again.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the encouragement.

     

    My discipline *is* being strained ATM. But w/~78K averaged in at $0.31/$0.32 (IIRC - not looking ATM, but that's close) and a belief that I *have* learned to read these stupid squiggles on the screen, I'm trying to hang in to adding below $0.42, so I've not replaced my trading blocks yet.

     

    The worst that can happen is I miss some profit. I've learned that bothers me much less than taking a big hit on losses. This males my "self-discipline" easier to keep in play.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    John do the new placement shares affect your "inflection" thesis. It seemed our recent run from .25 up to .65 was based on shares getting scarce (i.e. SS running out etc) and not from news.

     

    Does the increased float make those types of runs less likely now? Also does the FINRA data still correlate with the volume of late and the idea that some of the other 2009 placement investors have exited as well?
    11 Feb 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Smart move Jveal! I did the opposite - bought shares before the capital raise. Was upset. Now I am hoping the price stay in its current range as my dry powder won't be on hand until March...
    11 Feb 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I think the recent volume is probably due to some flipping by the new investors who saw a chance for a quick 20% gain at $.42 and couldn't resist the temptation. No matter how well placed a direct registered offering is, you always get some flippers in the mix.

     

    In my experience, most direct placement investors are not flippers. They typically climb the same wall of worry as other retail investors and have similar investment horizons and price expectations. Unless you're willing to assume that substantially all of the new shares will be rapidly re-sold for a modest profit, there aren't enough new shares to change the supply and demand inflection I've been predicting. YTD trading volume is 18.1 million shares in a month and a half. Total 2011 volume was 77.7 million, but in 2011 we had at least two and more likely three major block sellers with over 8 million shares each. Thirty or forty smaller sellers making individual decisions on smaller blocks won't have the same impact.
    12 Feb 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    John, will we ever know the composition and distribution of the new investors? Could it be say two or three or four 1-5M big cats, a coupla few 500K medium ones, and then a bunch of 100-250K share house cats? Point being that in the unlikely event one of the big cats does decide to move out early, that could still mean a painful soft patch for us, no? (not trying to borrow trouble, just bound the possibles...)
    12 Feb 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about these placement agents is we have a history to look at. If you set the Wayback Machine to December 2009, the same two firms sold about a third of the offering. If you review the selling stockholders list in the registration statement for the 2009 shares – http://1.usa.gov/rpxxK9 (page 54) – and draw lines through Averill, Winner, Manatuck Hill, Special Situations and Blackrock (Hare and Co), you'll have a good idea of what the last distribution looked like. I'd expect the same kind of distribution and many of the same faces this time around.

     

    The immediate worrier's response should now be "But didn't a lot of those smaller purchasers sell during 2010 and 2011?" The short answer is yes they did, but they were facing a different dynamic. In December 2009 they bought at about 40% of market and expected the price to stabilize in the $1.20 range, which it did for a couple of months. Then the liquidators started pushing and shoving at the pay window and drove the price down to the high $.50s without any apparent reason. While it's fairly easy to hold investors in place when their accounts are comfortably green, it get a lot tougher when they're wallowing at break-even with no end in sight.

     

    Given the way the 2009 placement didn't perform for the placement agents and their clients, I'm more than a little surprised that they came back for another round. "This time it's different" is a very tough pitch when you're talking to people who barely came out whole two years ago.
    12 Feb 2012, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Is it your experience that the placement agent goes back to the same well heeled group when 2nd (or 3rd rounds) come around? I would have guessed that the agent's Rolodex is many multiples of the names listed in 2009 and thus our new 2012 investors might not have much overlap with the 2009 bunch. But then again I'm sure there's only so many clients interested in the energy storage sector. Anyhow it seem 200-800k is the norm and not the 8M type holders. If that's correct it would be really hard for a few parties to disrupt the pps in the same way we saw in 2011.
    12 Feb 2012, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    There's really no way I could even make an educated guess but Tom's press release statements about old investors coming back for more implies that there are more than a few commonalities. If the distribution patterns are the same, which I think is likely, there shouldn't be any new holders that have enough power to be anywhere need as disruptive as the big holders were in 2010 and 2011.
    12 Feb 2012, 04:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    481086" "... and every day that passes is one closer to landfall"

     

    YOWZ! At first I thought it said "landfill"!

     

    TG I reread it! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    12 Feb 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Mark Twain said something like: "the difference between the right word, and almost the right word, is like the difference between lightning, and the lightning bug!"

     

    But "landfill" is just in a different orbit altogether. Let us never speak it again. ;)
    12 Feb 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Recycling center after years of faithful service? Absolutely!!

     

    Landfill? Never ever!!

     

    Besides, all the available space will be filled with lithium by then.
    12 Feb 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Statistically speaking, we show be prepared for the Big Spenders occasionally getting divorced ... and the ex-spouse that's sick of hearing about AXPW selling every single share she gets in the settlement as fast as possible :-)

     

    Or giving a slug to the Grandkid just turning 18 who decides a new car would be way more fun!
    13 Feb 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Ener1 wasn't just selling the auto market. They had a major grid play in Russia. http://bit.ly/Ahw9TC
    Vani is not a neophyte in terms of grid storage. He will also get fully up to speed on the Powercube technically in a New York minute.

     

    Viridity wants to turn customers into virtual "power plants" with demand response systems that may also include energy storage systems. If Axion's batteries are an energy storage system one of Viridity's customers want to consider among their storage options I'm sure Vani will make sure Axion gets as much consideration as possible.

     

    Vani's been around the block in the storage industry for a long time. I don't think he's limited to autos but that is a major opportunity for Axion and TG doesn't want to blow it. There are numerous auto OEM's on both sides of the Atlantic currently investigating the PbC with demos.

     

    Nothing happens fast with any of Axion's major markets, but when a big event happens, whatever the market, we can all laugh our way to the bank. The kind of deals Axion is working on can't be closed with a phone call. Think months and years. I'm very comfortable with Vani's abilities and his salary. I probably should have just sent a check to Axion for a couple hundred bucks to help cover his moving expenses versus throwing it down a rat hole on XIDE.
    10 Feb 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For a slow day, the great comments and input just keep a comin'! Great work everyone! Next APC this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Feb 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Exide sustained some wounds. The campaign hit a setback. "Thee Verk is not pro-gressing!" Sorry fellas, we ain't gonna be home by Summer...maybe Christmas.
    10 Feb 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Say what?!?!
    11 Feb 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
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