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Mayascribe
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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from Futurist:

     

    Maya,
    175 comments to this concentrator, already. I am finding no lag time with the SA comment section. Did they improve the site to a point where you can allow more comments w/o starting a new APC?

     

    I notices one of Johns articles had almost 1000 comments. Now that one takes a few moments to load up and find the new comments.

     

    ####

     

    Yep. Seems loading times with the new host is speeding up loading times significantly.
    15 Feb 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please give a hearty thumbs up to this APC. Thanks!
    15 Feb 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    From the article about IBM's lithium-air battery R&D: "If things pan out, IBM is hoping to have a full working prototype ready by 2013, with later commercial batteries to follow by 2020."

     

    If they arrive, I'm sure they'll be really cheap at first. Not. So don't hold your breath on that threat to PbC anytime soon.

     

    Of course, it is a meaningful question, IMO, as to how long of a window PbC will have, just as it is how big of a window it will have. Don't get me wrong--first things first. Axion has to sell v1. For now, that will drive the stock much much more than speculation of the window length. But when discussing other battery tech, it seems like the relevance to Axion is how it might affect PbC's window--makes it smaller or shorter or no effect?

     

    Anyway, a thought I stumbled into (way after you guys, no doubt) happened after someone posted about the Oregon Co. that thinks they may have an improvement to the activated carbon for PbC. Since Axion has patent protection for "asymmetric lead-carbon devices in a sulfuric acid electrolyte", all such roads lead to and through Axion. That means they can leverage other companies' R&D. How cool is that?
    15 Feb 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Lead-acid's window opened 150 years ago and shows no signs of closing. Other batteries have been invented to do other things, but nothing in the market is better than lead-acid for the many things lead-acid does best.

     

    If you look at the evolution of lead-acid battery technology. the first generation was flooded batteries and the second generation was valve regulated, or AGM, batteries. The PbC is basically a third generation device that builds on the strengths of second generation and does things AGM could never do.

     

    Axion has a ten year head-start under the PbC patents that provides a golden opportunity to build a patent fence that will endure long after after the core patents expire. To date it's been very strategic in its patent approach and focused on tying up as many conventional manufacturing practices as possible for the lead-carbon species.

     

    On balance, I suspect the PbC's window will remain open long after most of our caskets are closed. There will be new technologies, but there won't be any silver bullets that make all other technologies obsolete.
    15 Feb 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    IBM's solution to the weight of lithium batteries is software/hardware. while i have no doubt software applications could increase battery efficiency, it will not make batteries any lighter. hardware solutions sound awesome, but again represent no material threat to axpw in my humble opinion:

     

    http://bit.ly/ztQKES

     

    on oregon company: i always imagined axpw's future in batteries to be something like qualcomm's past in cellphone components.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Article about EnerG2

     

    http://bit.ly/wtvgQx

     

    "Likewise, EnerG2’s material, added to the “lead paste” that goes into lead-acid batteries, increases their cycle life at a “tiny cost, compared to the improvement in performance it delivers,” Wheaton said. Short cycle life has been the Achilles heel of lead-acid batteries in such applications as grid storage and stop-start hybrid vehicle energy storage, with many startups trying -- and some failing -- to improve on the age-old chemistry"

     

    Is it just another type of carbon added lead paste technology, like Ultra battery and others? Less radical than Pbc?
    15 Feb 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    "EnerG2 allows (ultra-capacitors) to run at higher voltages than today’s less finely-tuned structures"

     

    paste allows an increase in volume by displacing more stuff as near as i can figure. that should make it easier for current to flow upstream

     

    adding it to lead paste in a battery would likely slow sulfation but PbC should do a better job here.

     

    axiom claims their tech offers:

     

    significantly higher power delivery rates
    significantly greater charge acceptance
    significantly faster recharge rates;
    significantly longer cycle lives in deep discharge applications;
    reduced premature failures and warranty claims;
    more environmentally friendly ... significantly less lead

     

    the paste might allow for greater charge acceptance (increase volume) and higher power delivery rates. i don't know how it would effect charge rates (compared to PbC). the paste offers a worse cycle life as it is added to lead paste (more lead=faster sulfation). premature failures? i dunno but certainly more testing with PbC, and well... more lead with paste.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    tragicslip

     

    Thanks for comment !

     

    By the way, I am not happy about the fact that they got 21.3million DOE grant whereas Axion did not. I am wondering how they persuaded government...........b... connection?
    15 Feb 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    better connection. I mean...
    15 Feb 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Carbon paste additives are very inexpensive and they can double or triple the life of a flooded battery. It's an impressive bit of performance when you're comparing a carbon enhanced flooded battery with a conventional flooded battery. It is not impressive when you understand that AGM offers 10 times the lifetime energy throughput of of conventional flooded batteries and the PbC offers 10+ times the lifetime energy throughput of AGM.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Feb 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    EnerG2 is developing materials that have broad application across a spectrum of technologies ranging from additive pastes in lead-acid to electrode coatings for lithium-ion and supercapacitors. You can bet their ARRA grant application was all about lithium-ion applications and their current emphasis on lead-acid comes from a dismal short-term outlook for the lithium-ion battery sector.
    15 Feb 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    So "Lithium" is a magic word when you talk to government......
    15 Feb 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    It has been for years. Fortunately the history of lithium's promises to government are beginning to look a lot like the history of government's promises to the plains indians.
    15 Feb 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's funny stuff, John! In a dark way.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I've heard that the working title of the Secretary's memoir is "I will charge no more forever" but the rumor can't be sourced and its credibility is suspect.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    We got a trade! We got a trade!

     

    100 shares @ $0.4399 at 09:54:09, hitting the bid!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    100 shares traded in 30 minutes....my gut tells me it won't be long before we see a move...one direction or another.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Would that just be the MM trying to get something started?
    15 Feb 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    So someone sold 50shares and someone else bought it?

     

    Wow.....
    15 Feb 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    No, somebody bought 100 shares. If there were two transactions there would be two prints. It looks like we may have another Mexican Standoff brewing
    15 Feb 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    I think JLL got it right: probably the MM trying to drum up some business.

     

    So that would be one trade. On the level 2, the *size* of each trade is shown. That's not what we can divide by two.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    JAK: Since I can't stand to be unfairly accused and can't stand to unfairly accuse others, I went and reviewed your comments.

     

    You are right: you have not been negatively commenting since we first began interacting. I must have conflated some other negative comments from others.

     

    Further, as you stated you have expressed appreciation for what I offer *many* times.

     

    I can do nothing to right the wrong other than offer my sincere apologies.

     

    I am truly sorry to have unfairly characterized your behavior.

     

    I am grateful that you have not yet made 8K+ comments! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    My God, an honest man!
    15 Feb 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    E. T. Love,

     

    Absolutely not. I will accept no formal apology like that. What will warm the coddles of my heart is to see you continue to post the information you have been regardless of the drivel that might spew from my mouth...or fingertips...or whatever.

     

    I think you said it best that TA gives insight into a kind of "psychology" of the market, and as we continue moving forward with this higher volume (scratch today) its pertinence may increase more than what I was originally willing to give it credit for.
    15 Feb 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that's not unusual on this concentrator!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    All I've got to say is that I know we are in the middle of a stretch where there really isn't anything to talk about regarding Axion battery sales, and it's share price, when two of it's strongest proponents on this concentrator spend a day arguing about who is being more positive/negative describing the movement of the share price up or down 5-10 cents.
    We really need Axion to sell some batteries!!! :-)
    15 Feb 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    I have a trader friend who does heavy TA and has made various millions. As you quoted HTL in your above comment, my friend told me that TA is the tool that gives insight into the "psychology" of the market.
    15 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Diogenes would be proud.
    15 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    "We really need Axion to sell some batteries!!!" ...or at least throw us a bone and make a couple PRs about new markets or new companies testing the PbC for some new purpose.

     

    I'm really pretty easy to please. If you don't believe me, just ask me. ;-)
    21 Feb 2012, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    So who got the shares at 42.11??? come on..fess up
    15 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The market maker got the $.4211 shares from somebody who got impatient. I find that price fascinating because it's basically the direct placement price of $0.35 plus a 20% flip premium and commissions.

     

    It's not exactly the kind of deal that would appeal to most of the direct placement investors I know.
    15 Feb 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Insightful. I tried buying at .4215 and .425 and no bite. Not enough for the MM to part with those .4211 shares. Lurking at .42 in one account and .425 in another. Whose gonna bite?

     

    I just had an idea about Ranma's speculation that HTL was pushing down the price. Maybe we out to launch a new concentrator with a lead story by HTL stating he's certain the price is going back into the low .20's with supporting TA mumbo jumbo and then we post about a dozen comments to the story that we are all lurking at .28. Hmmmmm... diabolical huh?

     

    Might get us a bunch of cheap shares. Wonder if they would come with orange jump suits?

     

    EDIT: Both orders filled!
    15 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    For price trackers the .42 filled for .42 and was only 700 shares in my puny account and the larger order at .425 filled at .421
    15 Feb 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 11:51 A major change from the last few days, we've flipped from a strong buy:sell ratio to, at least in early trades, a pretty negative ratio. I didn't catch yesterday's (although I swear I remember saving the snapshot - maybe my W7 software upgrade canned it?) but going back the prior two days we had 1.89:1 and 4.01:1, ISTR that yesterday was up in a ~3:1 area or so.

     

    Today so far is ~1:3.42.

     

    Hm, me thinks Quercus might be active again today? On 2/9, our buy:sell was 1:4.76. Isn't that the day Q's latest form said they started selling? Another possibility is that their shares just hit the MM portfolio.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    OK. Was it TB, BW or other that just got 26K @ $0.42?

     

    Congrats!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I got shares at .421 and .42 even but only small orders total 3000 shares in two different accounts. The GTC at .42 popped and the impatient .425 lucked out and got .421
    15 Feb 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if something big staring at all the GTC orders at .42 went by off the radar for .40, or as Mercy suggested, people are reading over our shoulders? Quercus does that from time to time.

     

    EDIT: We've busted through the 10 at .44, 50 at .44, and 200 at .48 day moving averages but .42 has been an a concrete floor since the day after the capital raise.
    15 Feb 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    1:37 PM Active Power (ACPW -13%) takes a hit after missing Q4 estimates yesterday. Stifel Nicolaus downgrades the shares to Hold on the report, citing problems with the company's UPS business, difficulties with the company's internal strategy and margin deterioration.
    15 Feb 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    John

     

    When company is making steady revenue but is not making profit at all , what is usually the problem? I am talking about ACPW. If this situation continues for couple of years, is it something almost impossible to fix? Fundamental problem? Not a management problem?

     

    Thanks.
    15 Feb 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    It's a question of growing revenues to a point where gross margins cover corporate overhead and R&D. The phase that ACPW's going through right now is perhaps the most difficult because the transition from consistently losing money to consistently making money is always difficult. It only gets worse when you have to choose between doing the right thing from a business perspective and meeting market expectations.

     

    My favorite period in the lifecycle of a company is when revenues are ramping nicely but the business is not expected to earn a profit for at least a couple years because of growth directed spending. Once the market starts expecting bottom line earnings the future becomes a daily uphill grind where the most important thing management can do is manage expectations and always beat them by a hair's breadth.
    15 Feb 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I'm outta here for awhile. Got the afternoon off with a caretaker in for my mother. Noticed I made a fat finger mistake and entered an order with a limit .43 price that was filled for .421. Didn't want the extra money I guess. I think the sale is over, daily chart rsi and macd turning up. Now where to lurk?
    15 Feb 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Well, if you've got time off (for good behavior?), be good ... if you have no other choice! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Filled my .42 program, I'm done for now. Bang, let us know if you pick a new lurking location...

     

    I have what I call my "mud jacuzzi" where we catfish and turtles hang out when we are waiting for the markets to descend to our level. You guys are welcome to visit anytime.

     

    Currently, the mud is perfect...
    16 Feb 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Is there truth to the rumor that admission to your "mud tub" costs 41 cents?
    16 Feb 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Close. I accept gold, silver, and Axion shares, but not fiat currency.

     

    Full disclosure: I am long all the above, but have no position in mud futures nor do I plan to enter any position within the next 72 hours.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Gulp. Time to lay especially low for Fish Fry Friday.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    That sounds like a fine place for a big ol' bottom feedin' river carp, like myself, to rest and let the mud soak the stress out. I may take you up on that at some point.

     

    BTW, I'm glad to see some light hearted exchanges in here again. I was growing concerned that you had all gone over the edge. After JP's comment about us Axion bottom feeders, I ran right to Google Images and picked out a pic of, what I felt, was a fine specimen of a "big ol' bottom feedin' river carp" and used it to replace my Triumph as my avatar. Not one of you "lame Os" made a single comment on it. I don't know, I thought it was a little funny.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent! Hilarious. Sneaky portending...
    21 Feb 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I think it's wonderful, but if you hadn't drawn it to my attention I'd have never noticed. WTG!!
    21 Feb 2012, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Lame O? Yeah, well, guilty as charged. I looked at it and thought I saw only a giant photoshopped goldfish plastered over some poor random long-haired friend of jesus, and well, at that point I figured no frail comment of mine could ever hope to help... so I just let the whole tragedy stand. It was just easier that way. I'm sorry.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LOL! " ....so I just let the whole tragedy stand. It was just easier that way." That's funny 48! No need for anyone to apologize. I don't think my scaly friend is Photoshopped (though he could be). I think he is a "goldfish" though. Japanese Koi, the big goldfish you often see swimming in people's garden ponds, are a variety of the Carp family I believe. It wasn't the best example I found. Mr. Investor's is much better. I only picked it because it was bright orange and would jump out you guys. Guess I should have "taken a close-up" so the whole square was orange. ;-)
    27 Feb 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    HTL...the MM's gonna see how many catfish are in here at .42 .. then .38 if Quercus stays active ?
    15 Feb 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    LT: I can't really settle my mind on a specific low point. And when one such as Quercus, it's even harder since we don't know how dire the drivers for their actions are ATM.

     

    The reason I think the high $0.3x may be it is that the big purchasers of the recent new issuance *should* be willing to wait for at least a couple of months for more than about 10% or 15%. For the flippers, 20% would be harder to resist I think, so I saw nothing at or above $0.42 to hold the flippers back.

     

    That left the folks like Quercus and retail investors as sellers.

     

    I had no way to guess what Quercus would do, unless I wanted to assume the risk of guessing that the recent hits to solar and other "green" sectors were going to drive Q to sell again. I didn't want to make such an assumption.

     

    That left the retailers.

     

    A certain percentage can be counted on to *not* have patience and even get easily spooked as price and volume drops off.

     

    So putting all that together with what the charts already told me made me say anything below $0.42 should be a decent entry point. Downside risk should be relatively small in terms of both magnitude and duration - $0.35 *should* be the minimum and the duration should be only a couple of months before some PR or catalyst pushes price to more reasonable levels.

     

    Further, I presume that many folks that are not yet in, but follow Maya's work would be ready to pounce *if* pps drops even a penny or two below some high $0.3x level. Hence my thought that it would not linger there.

     

    There's lots of value buyers around I think that will help this play out well. And these new folks will, for the most part, be more patient and will not substantially add to any downward pressure near-term.

     

    A lot of speculation mixed in there, but from all I can observe, seems pretty reasonable.

     

    And don't forget that Mercy has posted that the momo player she highlighted before is also waiting in the wings for a $0.39 entry and fast ride up.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. MMs just want to find a price that delivers liquidity I guess. So they'll "go with the flow".
    15 Feb 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Unless Quercus changes its style and starts to account for more than 10% of daily volume they're not likely to drive the price down unless there's a competing willing seller, which we don't seem to be seeing right now. I'm not enough of a TA student to know how the dynamics change in the wake of a direct public offering, but i'm unwilling to assume that anybody is terribly eager to sell at less than $.42.
    15 Feb 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    14:38: AXPW buy:sell has deteriorated to 1:6.05.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes I get so tired of waiting and waiting and waiting... It seems that this is all that I have been doing for the past 2 years. It isn't but it just feels that way.

     

    Just thought I'd share this. I know some of you will understand me :o)
    15 Feb 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Its really simple. We all bought into Axion when it was still an R&D stage company and all of their efforts until late last year went into having the ability to actually produce the product. With the hiring of Vani they finally have all the ingredients.

     

    Its early and a long way from being scaled up - but they know how to scale it up and the rest is up to Axion, luck and the Gods. We have essentially been in a 2 year tail gate party and they've finally just teed up the ball and kicked off. Let's hope they put some points on the board in terms of sales soon.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sonrisa777: Not nearly the patience required for some of my biotechs to leap. But we are getting there.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Thank you bangwhiz :o) I forget to look at all the progress we have made. But... what you are saying about having a sales team is indeed a good point showing that we are on the cusp of breaking out. That... and the fact that all this testing by BMW and NS is bound to give results sometime in this life!

     

    By the way, I do really appreciate all the hard work you are putting into Axion for us Axionistas and future Axionistas!
    16 Feb 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mayascribe :o) I've also got a biotech that's been waiting to leap and it too is taking a long time. Geez... to say that some people are just going to walk in at the last minute and "Bang" the stock's going to fly (be it our biotechs or Axion) and they're just going to feel like it's so easy to make money...
    16 Feb 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    HTL...I agree with the post and thank you...I will PM u and tell you what I think the low will be.

     

    Sonrisa777....we all share in your "tiredness" and impatience....I do believe you will be well rewarded...but the waiting is difficult ... I know from my own experience. Good luck & hang in there. Not much to lose here now.
    15 Feb 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Just for future reference.
    We have earlier been estimating what price a manufacturer can get for a battery.
    I just listened to Exides cc. They have had about 1 million pcs less sales of batteries for the replacement market in Europe due to the warm winter here. As AGM batteries are not widely used yet, this 1 million batteries must be mainly standard batteries.
    The management estimated that their sales price for these batteries was 45-50 USD. With a margin of 10-20%.
    (If you want to hear it listen to the conference call at 1.01 (i.e. one hour and one minuttes into the call) and at 1.20.
    15 Feb 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Poul! I think that will be quite helpful.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    At the end of 2010, Frost and Sullivan told me that the average price paid by a US automaker for a starter battery in the 2009 MY was $57. So the range of $45 to $60 in Europe seems right given their preference for smaller cars.
    15 Feb 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: That F & S conversation needs to be checked in on. Pretty sure my Explorer's first replacement batt was more than three times that figure.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I put a big, heavy duty Interstate in my 3/4 ton Chevy p/u last fall. Retail price =$110.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The F&S price was for OEM purchases at the battery factory. By the time a battery passes through the supply chain to a consumer in the replacement market, two or three times original factory cost is not that unusual.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Then what comes into favor is how long the average car is kept in the US; over 10 years.

     

    Down the road, aftermarket replacement batteries won't be as frequent, but still "may" be equal in revenues.

     

    What I'm not enjoying is that if a PBC costs $300 in a OEM produced new car, then maybe I'm going to have to replace that battery at some indeterminate date down the road with a $600 or $900 aftermarket battery.

     

    Of course, I'd like to be given the choice of buying a stop/start vehicle. And I'd love some kind of gap up with the PBC such that I could keep that next car for ten years and not have to replace the battery.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    It's far from certain at this point, but with testing up into the 100,000+ cycle range it looks like the PbC may well be that mythical 10-year battery we'd all love to see. Given the way the automakers are implementing micro-hybrid technologies, my guess is that we won't see much in the way of consumer choice when it comes to system details. It will be just one element of a standardized fuel efficiency package like BMW's EfficientDynamics. http://bit.ly/nZOSkF
    21 Feb 2012, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    $600 dollars in 2022 wont be so bad if we see inflation as expected. Then again I'd bet costs can come down a lot too. I just got myself another Die-Hard and I paid less in 2012 ($100) than I did in the year 2000 ($180).
    21 Feb 2012, 04:18 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Can anyone please share some of your WAITING experience with us? I mean like holding stock for more than 5years with a lot of both expectations and frustrations and then finally get a really nice profit.....or loss......

     

    I know some of you have couple of decades of stock investing experience.......

     

    Thanks.
    15 Feb 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I bought my wife 55 shares of Apple for $3000 with her IRA money not all that long ago....just go back and look at the charts...it figures out about $55/shr. Today we still own it and never sold it, it is worth almost $30,000 today. btw...it was just as hard when it hit $200 and dropped to $90 to watch as AXPW is today. But it climbed back.

     

    Several companies that have split 2:1 may not go up that much, but some older people I know get great dividend checks and have a cost basis of 1/10 the value today.

     

    Patience is a virtue.
    15 Feb 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    here's an apple story to make you cry. Years ago my brother called and told me to buy all the AAPL I could, even borrow to do it. I had just bought a big house and had two kids and could not follow his advice. It was trading about $13 at the time. Fast-forward after two splits, and each of those $13 shares would be worth well north of $1600.

     

    I wish I had a time machine.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LT, Pman,
    ~ I had a block of AAPL that I had bought at $186. Not long after that (less than a year) it was at $312, but the market was looking pretty ugly and I couldn't stand the idea of losing any of that GP (I don't get many doubles in my portfolio), so I dumped them.

     

    Needless to say, I didn't take any lose any of that profit I was so worried about, but WOW, ...where would we be today? ...answer: working on triple. (not to be confused, of course, with a Tripleblack) ;-)
    21 Feb 2012, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I just looked at the website:

     

    http://www.peswiki.com

     

    They seem like a credulous bunch. "No fuel" generators seem to be the big thing just now.

     

    I can't wait for the test report on the "no fuel" 5kW household generator. Apparently it has two batteries in it. Whispers are that it "moves power between the batteries" and comes up with extra power ;-)

     

    I didn't put the site in my investor research bookmarks.
    15 Feb 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    It's not a great research site, but they have quite a battery reference list and I just did not like the fact that on the battery pages AXPW or PbC was not listed. I also emailed and told them they had missed it. Can't hurt.
    15 Feb 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    LT: "I also emailed and told them they had missed it. Can't hurt."

     

    Agreed.
    15 Feb 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >SHB ... But it doesn't actually 'exist' so how could they 'miss' it? Free Energy doesn't exist either so I may be confused.
    15 Feb 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    SHB,
    Yes I have one of those double battery electrical amperage confulerters at my hose. My utility bill is $5.00 per month but I have no problem cooling and heating my 2,300 sqFt home with a pool.

     

    I paid $250,000 for the house but the confulerter cost an additional $1,200,000. It has a competency to add green electrons to my household footprint.

     

    Signed
    Arnold Schwarzenegger
    15 Feb 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Futurist LMFAO
    15 Feb 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Mine works great. It came with a lightweight, 100 meter extension cord that I can plug it into my neighbors patio plug at night. There is a gadget that automatically retracts the cord at 5:30AM.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I was answering LT's serious comment.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LT, SH: I would think that they'll likely be listing it soon. I emailed them as well! LOL!
    21 Feb 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Ahnold,

     

    You should have tried getting a DOE grant for that!
    15 Feb 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Naw! He didn't want to go bankrupt.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    For HTL: Snicker ;-)
    22 Feb 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Axion has uploaded a video of the PC on to youtube. Link:

     

    http://bit.ly/zhXUG4

     

    16 Feb 2012, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Note the option to "subscribe" to Axion's YouTube channel, which can notify you when new videos are posted.
    16 Feb 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Am I showing my age?
    Looking back in time at the IBM computer (size) ...versus the PC now.
    I am NOT a dreamer and "jumping the gun" and comparing the technologies...but once we get back on track (no pun intended), future "downsizing" of the AXPW technology should be interesting to follow...
    16 Feb 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Electronics got better and faster when you reduced material content and made them smaller. Batteries just get weaker when you reduce the amount of active material or try to make them smaller.

     

    We can hope for modest improvements in energy density and significant improvements in cycle life and cost, but smaller and lighter really aren't in the cards.

     

    Physics was a fun science. Chemistry is a bitch (scientific term).
    16 Feb 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Finally a look inside the PowerCube. Those look like gp 31 and not the 30HT which is a surprise to me. Although, the rack does look like it will accommodate the 30HT. Any thoughts on this?
    16 Feb 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    John, I just wanted to say that, among other positives, your posts often help to manage investor expectations. Thanks for being fair!
    16 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Unreasonable expectations are the worst possible scenario for anybody who wants a fair, liquid, stable and sustained market. It's far easier to nip them in the bud than to tame them after they start to grow.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Point taken...a visual anecdote on my part, but you have made that distinction before...just pondering the evolution of this technology.
    I continue to learn!

     

    Thanks John!
    17 Feb 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    That particular analogy is leading a lot of investors down a primrose path to disaster because they fail to recognize the difference between electronics and chemistry, and don't even begin to consider what they'd have if comparable transitions happened in motor vehicles.

     

    My first Nokia cell phone weighed 3 pounds and the current one weighs about 3 ounces. Do you really think many people will be thrilled to downsize from a 4,000 pound car to one that tips the scales at 250 pounds?
    17 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Got it!
    Now even I can grasp that car analogy!...;-)
    17 Feb 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Very true. I know that the vast majority of the time, when I have had unhappy customers, it was due to unmet expectations of one sort or another. Most people are content to accept mediocre results, provided that they were aware of that possibility. Give them those same results after promising the world and you will invariably have unhappy customers. It applies almost universally I think. Happiness/satisfaction is all relative to ones expectations; set them appropriately from the onset and people have little to fret about.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jlyeluce: Thanks, but...no sound?

     

    Did anyone get sound?
    16 Feb 2012, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    no sound here either
    16 Feb 2012, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    No sound. I tested by playing some old Simon and Garfunkle and my hardware is OK. So it's a "silent film" with color.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    The introvert in me is saying, "Finally, a video without dramatic music. Although a presentation would be nice". Nothing stresses me out more than soothing music on a website (besides high five figures in the red on my brokerage account): can never find the mute button quick enough. Video might be appropriate for Axion's website, but sure someone has already considered that.
    16 Feb 2012, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Since it only went up about eight hours ago it might be a draft?
    16 Feb 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    That's what we need, an "updraft"!

     

    It'll come. We just have to wait for the prevailing winds to shift in our favor.

     

    Then like a falcon, we will soar effortlessly and silently (well maybe not us :-)) ever higher.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Sail on Silver Girl...
    16 Feb 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    And http://bit.ly/wnaYUF

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    mov'n up a couple decades...

     

    http://bit.ly/AEfkCo
    16 Feb 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    A narrative audio...even if very "simple" but educational...i.e. introduction to the company, the technology...the possibilities AND what's on the cusp...would be very beneficial.
    But, as a cup half full person...it is movement...it is a start...

     

    Methinks it will be addressed.
    16 Feb 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I suggest this should be the sound track:

     

    http://bit.ly/yesS6f

     

    (Runner up nominee was The Battle Hymn Of The Republic)
    16 Feb 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    my vote is for Bach's toccata and fugue in D minor.
    http://bit.ly/ykmVdX
    It will make the competition's hair stand on end.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Rimsky-Korsakov - Scheherazade my all-time fav.

     

    Have it in the CD changer in my 'Vette. Add back roads, no cops, it's heaven.

     

    http://bit.ly/wxL67f

     

    It soothes us, scares the enemy and keeps the vultures away and provides enduring sense of well-being.

     

    But it's hard to "Beat Bach".

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Check out these guys doing Bach's Toccata and Fugue in D minor
    http://tinyurl.com/m5gbey
    16 Feb 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Oh! You mean "Toe catta and Foot in width D Minor"?

     

    <*ducks flying shoes*>

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    NSC fell off a cliff yesterday...wonder if it's a bargain now?
    16 Feb 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1892) | Send Message
     
    LT, some analysts and Fast Money talking heads have said @$68 its a bargain. Yesterday's volume sell-off was very fast and deep, however, down to $67.56. If we have another meltdown day soon you may see more selling. I am still playing it for short term trading gains.
    16 Feb 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Mercy...just out of curiosity, do you find most of the FM "panelists" mostly repetitive "talking heads"?
    The more I listen in, the less I "hear"...except for Finerman and P. Nagarian...
    16 Feb 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1892) | Send Message
     
    Mag, With some exceptions you are spot on. I just have them on as background "music" when I am exercising and then I really listen if there is a mention of something on my watch list or if someone whose thinking I respect (e.g. Kyle Bass or Marc Faber) is talking. Otherwise the talking heads' only additional value to me is in keeping my finger on the pulse of the "advice" some sheeple will inevitably follow.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    There's something really scary about a fellow Farber fan liking Axion. Heck Mercy, we're not supposed to like anything!
    16 Feb 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1892) | Send Message
     
    Ha Ha John. My husband is always saying that I am so picky! And that's when I remind him that he should be very honored I picked him.

     

    Waiting a whole year to "pick" AXPW for our long-term portfolio is indeed a testament to how highly I think of the business value proposition.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I may whine about my investment being under water by about 60%, but the risk reward profile has never been more attractive, particularly now that there's money in the bank to last well into the second half of 2013.
    16 Feb 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    TWC cable and 'net out for about two hours this A.M. Reminded me just how addicted I am to the 'net (we don't take their cable).

     

    (AXPW): 2/14/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 75,581, 274,932, and 0 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 350,513. Buy:sell at EOD was 1:3.64. Trades were up to 108 giving an average trade size of 3,245. Note the move down in short sales percentage, which decreased as volume rose substantially, +241.5% as short volume fell ~37%. The high continues to creep down, from $0.44 yesterday to $0.4399 today. The low of $0.42 is still holding in there with pretty good strength demonstrated today.

     

    The combination of higher total volume with falling short volume and an again-lower high suggests that the market maker has a lot of shares available in his portfolio from prior sell orders which were naked-shorted into the market. We know Quercus was in starting the 9th and maybe those shares are hitting the market-maker now. The *rising* short percentage in the prior few days, followed by the drop today, seems to support this. This further seems likely as the big flip from a generally bullish buy:sell ratio flipped decidedly to a bearish bent.

     

    The question of the day is: are shares still flowing in from Quercus? If so, a continued bearish buy:sell should be seen as the market-maker already has profit from these shares being previously naked-shorted and any that weren't (won't be) used to cover the shorts can be sold into the market for further profit at a lower price.

     

    The question of the day is: are shares still flowing in from Quercus? If so, a continued bearish buy:sell should be seen as the market-maker already has profit from these shares being previously naked-shorted and any that weren't (won't be) used to cover the shorts can be sold into the market for further profit at a lower price.

     

    There was a notable difference today in that volume on a generally lower day was higher. Not a spike, so it seems to suggest a continuation of the trend. The falling triangle is still intact and so the odds of down and up breaks remain unchanged. All the oscillator I watch have weakened further *except* accum/distr, which is staying pretty flat, and MFI, which is coming back to a neutral setting, which should be the normal behavior with price and volume being essentially flat.

     

    The day's high, $0.4399, was seen only in the morning trading, the last hit being at 11:41:41, and totaled only 9 trades of 100 shares each. This seems to have been market-maker trades trying to stimulate some buying by giving the appearance of some demand at higher prices. It should be noted that just prior to that, at 11:14:29 (two trades earlier!), the buy:sell was ~1.066:1. The next trade, at 11:39:06 for $0.43, was a "sell" of 6.4K that started the trend resulting in the bearish ratio for the day.

     

    That price was not seen again. The low of $0.42 was first seen at 11:51:29 and *most* subsequent trades went at <=$0.425.

     

    If there are substantial shares (flowing?) in the market-makers portfolios again today, we should expect more of the same - further reducing price, strong (relatively) volume and a bearish buy:sell ratio.

     

    It's quite possible we'll see less than $0.42 today. Let's hope there's no spookable retail investors sitting with the finger on the trigger.

     

    0202 Vol 0584698, Sht 0181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.4800 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    0203 Vol 1019813, Sht 0235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.4690 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1
    0206 Vol 0392838, Sht 0202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    0207 Vol 0413428, Sht 0094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1
    0208 Vol 0570071, Sht 0115522 20.26% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4500 b:s 1:1.06
    0209 Vol 0335713, Sht 0094570 28.17% LHC 0.4251 0.4600 0.4300 b:s 1:4.76
    0210 Vol 0220029, Sht 0088190 40.08% LHC 0.4220 0.4500 0.4400 b:s 4.01:1
    0213 Vol 0239000, Sht 0105800 44.27% LHC 0.4201 0.4550 0.4392 b:s 1.89:1
    0214 Vol 0102654, Sht 0056004 54.56% LHC 0.4350 0.4400 0.4400 b:s UNKNOW
    0215 Vol 0350513, Sht 0035300 10.07% LHC 0.4200 0.4399 0.4240 b:s 1:3.64

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: 2/15 Sorry 'bout that.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    If Quercus is selling about 10% of market volume each day, they are hardly making a dent at current volume levels.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    they are in that the MM can short. i'm still waiting for .3x, but i would be buying here too if i had a smaller position. these prices are very sexy to this invertebrate.
    16 Feb 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): The highs, $0.4249 so far, are again the drumbeat of the market-makers. 100 share trades, two so far.

     

    The low so far, $0.41, was 4K and the bigger trades are going at $0.42, $0.423. Big, in this case being 14.5K, 5K, 3.5.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Price at .41 dropped, albeit slightly, below 50 day MA - according to stockchart.com.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    My current 50-day volume weighted moving average is $0.4127. Since there was only one trade at $.41 and everything else has been above $.42 I'm not terribly concerned about a breakdown because even flippers have a minimum gain expectation and I don't know of many who'll work on less than a 20% spread unless they have rock solid control over the market.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    So far, I've been impressed with how orderly and patient the selling has been the last couple of weeks. Feels professional to me.

     

    If it's mostly some recent placement people taking a lil profit, I still say it's self-limiting. The further down you go, the less the selling.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Burning up the market today at 12:11 with ... 14 neck-snapping, whipsawing highly volatile trades.

     

    Don your hair net, if unlike me you have much hair, to avoid mussing your coif!

     

    Any buy:sell ratio would be meaningless here. But the market-maker did buy a couple more at $0.4249, 2x100 shares.

     

    Larger trades (>100 shares I guess) have been getting filled at $0.42. But other than those market-maker trades and two early $0.425 (100 share mm trade) and $0.423 trades, no trades above $0.42.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes it's as exciting as watching paint dry. A friend told me years ago "never pray for patience because you'll just get new opportunities to practice the virtue." He was right and I owe all of you an apology.
    16 Feb 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    JP: "He was right and I owe all of you an apology".

     

    ??

     

    For *me* watching it, ostensibly for now, behave as expected, is entertaining. As I've said, as long as it behaves as expected ... Otherwise I get a wee bit nervous.

     

    I don't know what you need to apologize for.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Again...while we're in "suspension" mode...pondering the past AXPW debt/equity "banter"...
    Michael Milken to the "de facto owner" of Rapids America Corporation..."...claimed that Drexel and its clients...controlled Rapid American...'How can that be when I own forty percent of the stock?'...(asked the de facto owner)...'We own one hundred million dollars of your bonds', said Milken, 'and if you miss one payment, we'll take the company away'..."...circa late 1970's
    Liar's Poker, Michael Lewis
    16 Feb 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    As a former Business teacher, there is a good teaching point in that story.
    16 Feb 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    As unpalatable the placement price was, I feel infinitely better about it than having bonds placed upon AXPW. That would be a virtual guarantee that the share price would crater, and it would be for nefarious reasons. I've been burnt before by what appeared to be bondholders crushing the stock for cheap conversion or to keep the company from raising capital, though I have no proof.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Somebody is sure willing to sell at .42 and buy as well:
    $0.4200 48,400 OBB 13:02:50

     

    JP's remark yesterday about the new shares earning a quick 20% at .42 has been burned into my brain. The .42 concrete floor is getting harder everyday that passes with only a 4k share leak at .41 on the open that quickly got plugged up.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Well, a "cross trade"? It's in the right time frame - 13:02:50. 48.4K at $0.42.

     

    Showed as a "buy" even though bid at that time was $0.4126/$0.4249.

     

    Total volume before that moment was 51.42K.

     

    So, that almost doubled our volume.

     

    MM getting desperate? Now 2x100 share trades @ $0.424, marked down from $0.4259 previously.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Someone moved the bid up a bit and bid 50k at $.42 by UBSS. Didn't last too long. Two resulting trades--1.6k and 48.4k.
    16 Feb 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    I'd forgotten about that. Showed up at 12:59 and I think that 48.4K filled it at 13:02 after the 1.6K at 13:01:17.

     

    I didn't even link them.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    I just looked at the video posted by jlyleluce and then watched another video which was posted on March 10, 2009 but likely made about the time of the November 5th, 2008 announcement of the contract manufacturing agreement. The press release (info repeated in the video) started with:

     

    "Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), a leading developer of battery technologies and advanced energy storage devices, announced today that it has received a purchase order for 92,250 flooded lead-acid batteries that it will produce over the next 11 months under a toll-manufacturing contract with a major North American battery manufacturer. The purchase order is the first phase of a relationship that could expand to 50,000 units per month by mid 2009. The product will be manufactured on previously mothballed assembly lines in Axion's New Castle plant. Axion will begin work and will ship product this month. This Phase 1 purchase order segment will generate $6.4 million in revenue over the next year. "

     

    From the numbers, these revenue figures look to be total revenue and don’t take into account that materials are supplied by the customer.

     

    My question is, while this customer was very slow to ramp, has there been any indication of the number of batteries Axion is actually providing to this customer?

     

    According to Axion’s 2Q2011 report, roughly 76.5% of the company’s $2.7m in product revenue was from a single customer ($2,065,500) but there is no info on units. If we assume $20 (?) per battery, then that’d be about 100,000 batteries or 17,000/month. That’s more than the sub-9,000 units/month of the initial 2008 order projected to be filled in ’09, but still not to the 50,000 upside number.

     

    Anyone shed further light on this? If there isn’t a question already, I’ll go ahead and formulate one for BW’s compilation. Thank you.
    16 Feb 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    My favorite video I've seen so far is this one from 2011:

     

    http://bit.ly/wFKmiP
    16 Feb 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor> I added that video to the "new to Axion" section of the APC website. Thanks for pointing it out.
    16 Feb 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The November 2008 contract was signed before anybody really understood how bad the economic melt-down would be. While I'd forgotten about the numbers in the original release, it looks like the per unit selling price was in the $65 range.

     

    To minimize accounting hassles, Axion buys the materials from the contract purchaser, owns them while they're in Axion's control in New Castle, and then resells them to the purchaser as part of the battery price. So if you're trying to estimate units, I'd use a price of $60 to $65 per battery.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Bear in mind I don't put any comments in the APC website. However the inclusion of good key words that would let someone find it with the comment search field on the APC websites home page would do the trick. Just define what you are talking about in a brief sentence somewhere in the comment like "2011 Q3 Conference Call.".

     

    The comment search feature is the most visited feature on the site from my Google Analytics reports for the site. That report lets me spy on every search term entered so I know what people are looking for and it might tip me off as to something important I better check out. Remember, you have to click the small down arrow and change the search to "APC comments" from "Search this site" which only searches the APC website content.

     

    The other interesting report item is countries - some people visiting from exotic locals like Thailand.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. That sounds like maybe 50,000 batteries in the first half of this year or say 9,000/month. I wonder if the mild winter will impact that number.
    16 Feb 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Here’s another question that came out of my re-reading earlier today of past documents, specifically, the transcript of the year-end 2010 call (March 31st 2011). There was an extensive discussion of the Norfolk Southern relationship, which was announced in June 2010, including:

     

    “Both Norfolk Southern and Axion are anxious to see how these calculations hold up in field testing. So, they have told us they will be issuing us a purchase order for PbC batteries so that they can begin large string testing on their platform at Roanoke, Virginia.”

     

    Here’s my question: Everyone talks about NS 999, and it was even mentioned in the earnings call, but all the reports we seen in the concentrator indicate that the locomotive is just sitting around, possibly waiting for the batteries to be installed. Now JP has pointed out that the string testing is likely to be more demanding than the operational testing, but I find it hard to believe that they don’t plan to run the locomotive around for six months or more before they’ll be satisfied. So, to me, based on what we’re seeing with the 999, we could be a long way from completed field testing or, could the 999 just be a decoy? Maybe my Intel background makes me a little paranoid, but is it possible that NS is testing the PbC in another yard locomotive somewhere else? Are the railroad buffs connected enough that if this was happening, it’d be discussed in various online forums? Is this a question that could be asked point blank to Mr. Granville on the next call?

     

    Thanks again. I don’t want to spin wheels rehashing old news but hopefully it’ll help others as well as me increase our understanding of Axion.
    16 Feb 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    APM, I've been having similar thoughts, and earlier today emailed the "Altoona Front" and received this:

     

    NSC has two major locomotive shops, Juniata in Altoona and Roanoke. Roanoke is much much smaller than Juniata...200 employees vs 1,000. I don't know a whole lot about Roanoke, but they specialize in overhauling GEs while Juniata specializes in pretty much everything else.

     

    999 was set aside on a stub track at the turntable recently.

     

    My contact didn't know that Roanoke was doing anything related to battery locomotives.

     

    It's possible there's some rivalry between these two ...
    16 Feb 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    WTB, thanks very much.
    16 Feb 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • RMF - Rethinking Modern Fin...
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Holding some AXPW from the past. Thinking about adding. Missed the $0.25 price. Looking of $0.41 now. Any thoughts if it will go down below that level or is it best to buy now.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    RMF: Go back and read all of HTL's posts for this week and you will have your answer.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    .42 is as good a buy point as any. There is little reason for anyone to sell below .42, (although someone got lucky with a 4K buy at .41 but only 4K total at .41) and there is a virtual steel floor at .35, and when something pops (and it will, Vani is being paid 19K a month to make that happen) it most likely will run up near or into the .60's IMHO. Then the flippers will probably drive it back down to the low .50's where there is a hell of a lot of support.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    It would appear the longer you wait the cheaper the price -- simple right? I would assume when it turns the corner it won't/can't break through .44-.45 too fast so you would only be out a few cents if you wait for it to move in a more positive direction.

     

    News or a substantial amount of buying power waiting to release the springed up coil could change that.

     

    The data seems to keep pointing to it moving down, though.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz> You could use a "trigger" buy if that was your startegy. I've got one loaded to place a limit order at .60 IF price reaches .50. Trying to catch any unexpected pop before it runs away - but it won't work if there is a huge 'gap" up.

     

    I like bracket trades to catch either a low enough price acceptable to me for another buy, as well as an upside "trigger" trade. Just bought at .42 so .39 holds no attraction. If it starts tumbling I would want to see that falling knife stick somewhere very firm before I would even consider buying a single share.

     

    It will be very interesting to see price action the closer we get to the earnings call, particularly if Mayascribe is correct that there is a strong chance of an Axion press release of a sale prior to the earnings conference.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    BW, I think you have a pretty good strategy, but trust me, I am all filled up brother. The price right now or tomorrow doesn't effect me. It is a clear runway for a good strong 9 months, so for me personally, I could careless about cents...I am talking dollars, baby, dollars!

     

    (But, I can understand from the chart why no one wants to buy right now until there is volume that tips it one way or the other.)
    16 Feb 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    My best guess at the runway is Q-3 of 2013. When I read the prospectus disclosure it was very clear that the timeline was without the most recent financing. When you add $8.5 million to the runway, it stretches well into 2013 even in a worst case scenario.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    That is what it looks like to me as well, but my 9 months is for the conservative and the amount of time I give myself to sit on my EZ-chair with Maya, but at the end of 9 months I will be re-evaluating the progress made...in depth.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    The Honda hybrid mpg scandal refuses to go away:

     

    http://bit.ly/zF3j2s
    16 Feb 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Just wait until the EV range lawsuits. One thing that cracks me up about Tesla, is they tout a 300 mile driving range (at 60 mph) and at the same time tout neck-snapping acceleration like 0-60 mph in 5 seconds. I guaranfreekintee if peeps drive the thing with a lead foot and actually use all that acceleration... they ain't gettin' no 300 miles range. And they ain't payin' 50 cents for no coke either.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    My favorite part of the article:

     

    "The proposed class-action settlement would give aggrieved owners $100 to $200 each and a $1,000 credit toward the purchase of a new car. Legal fees in the class action would give trial lawyers $8 million."

     

    I think it would be fairer if the "aggrieved" owners received $8 million and the lawyers would get $100 plus credit toward the purchase of a new car.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I agree 100% .... Just as someone mentioned on another thread that the "voters" should pass the bills instead of congress with a thumbs up or down vote.
    this settlement is a joke.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    LT > "... the "voters" should pass the bills instead of congress with a thumbs up or down."

     

    :-) And, I'll venture the proportion of 'voters' actually reading the bills before the thumb action would look like that of the Congress.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Greetings All!

     

    Back in APC 61 the idea of a wiki to compliment BangWhiz’s APSG website drew some support, so the “Axion Power Wiki” is now up at http://bit.ly/w6dxSz . It has been seeded with a few place-holder topic pages to get it started, however a wiki thrives or withers based upon wide participation. Please feel free to share what you know, or edit what someone else sticks up. And if you find yourself going back through the Concentrators to find a bit of information, consider pasting it in the wiki as well. If you have a minute, do it; otherwise, don’t worry about it—everyone’s time is precious.

     

    I told Bang that to my thinking, the wiki should be atomic, a place for facts but not discussion. In a sense, the wiki is a harvest of grapes, the APC is where they are stomped to extract information, and the APSG is the where the wine is cellared. I guess in this metaphor, JP is a viticulturist.

     

    Another Axionista expressed minor heartburn over investing much effort for the purpose of educating young/new investors. I responded that my position is that I want them to purchase AXPW, as I'm positioned to benefit when new investors get on board. If giving away this hard-won information helps them make the decision, great. The easier it is for someone else to complete their DD, the more demand there will be for my shares.

     

    Anyway, at present you have to join WikiSpaces and the AP Wiki in order to post. This is simple, and is intended to help keep the Trolls from vandalizing the site. The moment this group thinks the wiki has enough momentum to minimize that problem, I will uncheck the “joining required” box and throw it open to anonymous contributions/edits. Meanwhile, constructive suggestions always welcome!

     

    WDD
    16 Feb 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Nice setup and organization.
    16 Feb 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    Great job. I'm comforted to be surrounded by such high class co-investors in Axion.
    16 Feb 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Sucks to be me. Last fall I had estimated that today would be the day we hit $1.00/share as its my wife's birthday. i was much later than most of you but I still sucked the big one. Ugh.

     

    Onward and upward.

     

    On the stock front, I am very heavily in here but I just did a review and outside of my axion investment I have 60% of my portfolio in junior oil companies. Jeez, I am a glutton for risk. I've recently sold out of my Exxon and Hess to buy some juniors and my investments are a mess of OTC, Canadian and pinks.
    16 Feb 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    mrholty:
    "...and outside of my axion investment I have 60% of my portfolio in junior oil companies." ~ are we related?
    21 Feb 2012, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Forward we go to the next APC:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Feb 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    New twist on registered offerings (new to me, at least).

     

    About 4:30 EST, I noticed a press item on Yahoo -- http://tinyurl.com/7wd... -- announcing a $30 million "At-the-Market" offering of MXWL shares.

     

    "SAN DIEGO, Feb. 16, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: MXWL - News) entered into an At-the-Market (ATM) equity offering sales agreement with Citadel Securities LLC on February 16, 2012, under which Maxwell may, from time to time, offer and sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate value of up to $30 million through Citadel. Maxwell expects to use any proceeds from this offering to satisfy working capital needs and fund the ongoing growth of its business."

     

    Reads to me like an IB variant on CB line of credit that avoids recurring interest cost and repayment obligation. The offering was also noted during MXWL's 5 p.m. EST cc on Q4 performance where continuing proliferation of Ultracap applications and shipments were also noted.

     

    Also, ZBB put out a PR on shipment of its first commercial sale of flow battery and UL approved 25kW "ZBB EnerSection™ power and energy control center."

     

    Leaves one a bit frustrated with continuing absence of Axion commercial sales.
    16 Feb 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ZBB also filed an S-1 Registration Statement for up to $11.5M

     

    http://bit.ly/zpI7Cj

     

    "We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate and working capital purposes.

     

    The amounts and timing of our use of proceeds will vary depending on a number of factors, including the amount of cash generated or used by our operations, and the rate of growth, if any, of our business. As a result, we will retain broad discretion in the allocation of the net proceeds of this offering."
    16 Feb 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/16/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    The utility of this stuff today is *marginal*, due to the very low volume. But you will note some significant deviations from the norm. I'll not spend much time discussing them. By now I'm sure you all now the patter.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 124,197, 7,903, and 0 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 132,100. A big part of this was from a single 50K share trade. Buy:sell at EOD was 15.7:1. Trades were only 27, giving an average trade size of 4,892. This was skewed by a single trade of 48,400 (part of that 50K trade - thanks Mr. Investor, I had missed that).

     

    We broke down to $0.41 on a single trade of 4K today at the open. Excluding the 11 100-share trades at $0.425, $0.4299 and $0.424, which I believe were market-makers trying to drum up some business, all the other trades were between $0.42 and $0.4245, with the majority at $0.42.

     

    The lower high and low moves the price away from the falling resistance, but a one-day break away can't be considered a definitive indication of anything on such volume.

     

    But I should warn that such volume is itself significant. Combined with the price, volume and pattern trends, it suggests the end of this phase of consolidation is near or here. Up, down or sideways (DOH!) is next. Least likely, with a falling triangle, is sideways. But it is *possible*.

     

    Fortunately, we closed at $0.42, at the flat support line, so we haven't *technically* broken out of the falling triangle pattern yet.

     

    All I'll say about the below is that we better hope the market-makers don't receive any more shares coming in from prior sell orders they received. They'll be paying us to take them if they do receive more.

     

    0210 Vol 220029, Sht 088190 40.08% LHC 0.4220 0.4500 0.4400 b:s 4.01:1
    0213 Vol 239000, Sht 105800 44.27% LHC 0.4201 0.4550 0.4392 b:s 1.89:1
    0214 Vol 102654, Sht 056004 54.56% LHC 0.4350 0.4400 0.4400 b:s UNKNOW
    0215 Vol 350513, Sht 035300 10.07% LHC 0.4200 0.4399 0.4240 b:s 1:3.64
    0216 Vol 132100, Sht 006097 04.62% LHC 0.4100 0.4249 0.4200 b:s 15.7:1

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    The third Q conference call was in mid November ... what is the date of the next call and report?
    16 Feb 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » tonys23: Not sure that has been yet announced. But for guidance, the 2010 fourth quarter and 2010 year end results CC was held on March 31, 2011.
    16 Feb 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
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