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Mayascribe
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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 68: Beginning Feb. 16, 2012 161 comments
    Feb 16, 2012 5:57 PM

    Three notices to all Axionistas!

    First, I am officially inviting all of you to "Mayascribe's 12/21/12 Ending Of The World Fiesta." The week or so long Honduran government sponsored fiesta will be held in Copan, Honduras. I will soon be updating the dedicated Instablog link provided below.

    Currently, the link already provides access to a travel agency called Copan Connections, who will coordinate ground transportation and various group activities.

    As I understand, there are 16 people who have already booked rooms, before this announcement. I believe most will be arriving on the 15th of December, and plan to leave on Dec. 23.

    Two days ago I booked my flight through a travel agency, and the travel agent stated that 30% of my return flight on Dec. 23 has already been filled. The Copan Chamber of Commerce expects thousands will pilgramage to what is planned to be the "global epicenter" for this once in over 5000 years important Mayan calendrical date.

    I fully expect return flights to fill quickly because of Christmas.

    Please entertain the idea of coming down and celebrating this event with John Petersen, Eggwis and myself. There are many fine and relatively inexpensive hotels in Copan. But I encourage anyone interested to soon make up their minds, because I know of two hotels that are already sold out.

    The below link will take you to where more information is provided.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/228383-mayascribe/141336-ending-of-the-world-12-21-12-fiesta

    Second, I would like to offer hearty gratitudes to WDD's efforts in creating the Axion Power Wikispaces site. I believe this will be another excellent source of information for anyone researching Axion Power, International, and will well compliment bangwhiz's Google website. Here is the link to that site:

    http://axionpower.wikispaces.com/

    Third, is that I greatly appreciate everyone's time spent in attempting to educate the insidious troll, who has now four times using various IDs attempted to take control and creat havoc within the Axion Power Concentrators. The last thing I ever want to do is use the "delete function" Seeking Alpha has provided as a tool to deal with intrusive persons, making it quite easy to remove comments.

    Since so many have personally emailed me, I again took action and deleted all of the troll's comments, as well as all related comments, late last night. It pains me to have to do this, but I will not tolerate anyone coming into the APCs with disruptive intent.

    In the future, I suggest all who recognize this person's antics, to not respond, or opt to just write DNFTT (Do Not Feed The Troll).

Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (161)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from WDD:

     

    Greetings All!

     

    Back in APC 61 the idea of a wiki to compliment BangWhiz’s APSG website drew some support, so the “Axion Power Wiki” is now up at http://bit.ly/w6dxSz . It has been seeded with a few place-holder topic pages to get it started, however a wiki thrives or withers based upon wide participation. Please feel free to share what you know, or edit what someone else sticks up. And if you find yourself going back through the Concentrators to find a bit of information, consider pasting it in the wiki as well. If you have a minute, do it; otherwise, don’t worry about it—everyone’s time is precious.

     

    I told Bang that to my thinking, the wiki should be atomic, a place for facts but not discussion. In a sense, the wiki is a harvest of grapes, the APC is where they are stomped to extract information, and the APSG is the where the wine is cellared. I guess in this metaphor, JP is a viticulturist.

     

    Another Axionista expressed minor heartburn over investing much effort for the purpose of educating young/new investors. I responded that my position is that I want them to purchase AXPW, as I'm positioned to benefit when new investors get on board. If giving away this hard-won information helps them make the decision, great. The easier it is for someone else to complete their DD, the more demand there will be for my shares.

     

    Anyway, at present you have to join WikiSpaces and the AP Wiki in order to post. This is simple, and is intended to help keep the Trolls from vandalizing the site. The moment this group thinks the wiki has enough momentum to minimize that problem, I will uncheck the “joining required” box and throw it open to anonymous contributions/edits. Meanwhile, constructive suggestions always welcome!

     

    WDD

     

    ####

     

    Please thumbs up this Concentrator. Thanks!
    16 Feb 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: Here is something I discovered today that the TA side of you may enjoy:

     

    http://bit.ly/zPTNxJ
    16 Feb 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    looking at that was very helpful. i am going to suggest anyone asking about price action look there first, then read HTL's daily summery. if you can't find a comfortable entry point with those sets of data it's time to revisit your investment thesis.
    16 Feb 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tragicslip: I hope you never had one!

     

    It was fun discovering this website.

     

    I especially liked the support and resistant price levels, as well as the "pivot point."

     

    But what I liked most is that this somehow computer generated info supports HTL's data.

     

    ####

     

    On a more "living room" conversational basis, Bangwhiz has me all "noided" out about how once I start I new Concentrator, I should not edit there forward. As someone who has rewritten the beginning of his novel about 120 times, I find this a tad constricting, especially with the rapidity we all do to generate APCs.

     

    I would have much rather have written, "I cordially invite all Axionistas..." than writing that I'm "officially" inviting. "Officially" sounds a tad pretentious.

     

    I'm going to reiterate, though, that any inkling of enjoying the marvel of foot on Copan soil, should be acted upon pretty soon.

     

    Having held so many conversations and been given so freely help toward my work from scholars Harvard to UPenn to Dumbarton Oaks to the best of Copan guides, I have always found it amazing how all of these scientific-minded people also realize that beyond all the science, there's something else, something "vortexy," something spiritual and uplifting and rejuvenating and surreptitious going on that any of them nor I can explain.

     

    It just happens.
    16 Feb 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Edit the content all you want - just don't change the page URL that appears in the browser address bar. You don't want that changing. If the URL says "Jhn Petersen" somewhere in it and 2 days later you notice it and want to edit it to say "John Petersen" Don't. AS for the content on a webpage, that changes all the time and Google just updates its search engine for the new content by reindexing the page. New comments alone cause a reindex.

     

    None of us look at the code in the windows address bar, but Google's spiders do and they don't like it when pages that were there disappear and it doesn't help your rankings to trigger "404 Page not found" errors.
    16 Feb 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    had one what? entry point? i've been pretty comfortable since i started buying. things got better once the placement got out of the way.

     

    oh wait... tragic slip.
    16 Feb 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Had, endured, lived through a "tragicslip." Apologies for being cryptic.
    16 Feb 2012, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya!

     

    I'll have to dive in a bit and see how I can best use it.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    KEMA? I am just wondring how many of these research, consulting companies are out there. Lux, Pike......etc. Anyway "The Energy Storage Market Quadruples in Five Years" Nothing new though, if you have followed John's articles.

     

    http://bit.ly/AqwpxK
    16 Feb 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bang: Derived, title can't be changed, content can. Thanks.

     

    Subjective as this might be: Wishing there was a way to go back and "re-title" every APC's main theme without subverting the URL applecart.
    16 Feb 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Axion and the Chinese Auto industry.

     

    I ran across this article which talks about how the 90 different auto manufacturer's in China are now selling their vehicles in South America. The price being at least 33% cheaper than other brands like Fiat. Quality is up, price is down. Sounds like the Japanese plan.
    http://bit.ly/whaXLq

     

    Then you find a disturbing article like this one.
    This is about Coda. The California car company that is a disguise for a Chinese car company controlled by a Chinese military supplier of weapons to dictators like Kadafi.

     

    Note the implication of this company applying for a battery grant from Uncle Sam.

     

    http://bit.ly/xhcG0y

     

    My mind starts pondering the future of the PbC technology in Asia. China now produces half of all automobiles made ( I think). So no doubt they have to be included in future plans. But how would they accomplish that? Who would be their partner? How long until the partner was in control?

     

    Some days I am glad I am not Tom Granville.

     

    Just thought it might be nice to discuss something new. I have been a fan of the approach by ZBB in Asia. Solid partnerships with major world players. It hasn't done much for their share price however.
    17 Feb 2012, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    No doubt that China is a factor...but...I just do not trust China, nothing to do with it's people as I think they are fine citizens.

     

    My fear is that China will steal technology...say a world event happened and they would shut down all foreign business, raid offices and make off with trillions of dollars worth of tech & engineering for free. Say it can't happen but it could, just like your article of the car company .... it's just a front and why should we give a gov't grant? Let them make a few thousand cars, an they have all the technology to send back to china ? If they stole PbC...there is nothing we could do about it.

     

    Look at Apple's iPad name ... it is a patented name in all parts of the world .. except...China...Many cities have stopped shipments. I am sure this will work out, but why should it happen in the first place.
    17 Feb 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Warning: "Brain Dump Puddle" ahead.

     

    (AXPW): Yesterday I made a comment about the marker-makers paying us if they received more shares, based on the very low short sales percentage.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Well, it just occurred to me that what really happened is that the market-maker had almost no shares to dump and, due to the low liquidity, stepped away from the market for the most part.

     

    This is suggested, upon deeper thought, by the 6,097 total short sales. If we add one of the small "higher-priced" sales, 5K at $0.423, all but two of the 100 shares "buys" at "higher prices" of $0.4249/$0.425 and one 197-share trade at $0.424, we get 6,097.

     

    "Wait!" you say. How can "buys" be short sales? First, recall that "buys" are nothing more than saying a trade occurred at, or very near, the ask price. It's nothing but a classification. But beyond that, ...

     

    The market-makers are allowed to be on both sides of the market simultaneously. In trying to drum up some volume, as I suspect was the case yesterday, he makes a "buy" from his "bid side" through his "sell side".

     

    Regardless of the fact that there was net-zero change in his position, FINRA rules require the sale from the sell side be marked as a short sale *unless* he has shares in his portfolio to cover the sale. This could also be across market-makers so we shouldn't presume that every market-maker portfolio had a net-zero change. One went long, e.g., a hundred, while another went short 100 is just as likely.

     

    So I deduce that there were *some* shares, in aggregate, in the market-makers' portfolios, that market-makers were trying to drum up business with those 100 share trades at "higher prices" of >=$0.424 and, since the market was not responding to the enticement, the market-makers essentially "stepped away" rather than naked-short into prices and volumes that were unacceptable since they might not be able to cover and/or deliver.

     

    Also note that someone (JLL?) posted that AXPW had fallen off the running fails list (could the OP provide that link again?).

     

    I also deduce that the aggregate 50K trade that MrInvestor spotted was a real trade. But based on the above, I now think maybe it really was a "cross trade" since only the first 1.6K was at the bid ($0.42) while the bid/ask when the remaining 48.4K traded was $0.4126/$0.4249 and the trade went at $0.42. Note the $0.4249 ask matches a lot of the 100-share trades seen during the day.

     

    Another implication of all this is that no new sell orders nor shares from prior sell orders were flowing into the market-makers at a price that the market would meet and allow a profit for the market-makers. Or there just may have been no flow at all.

     

    The obvious follow-on is that current holders are not willing to sell at current levels. We have "seller exhaustion" for the moment. Of course, this is *always* sensitive to price, time and mood and could change momentarily.

     

    We also see that we have buyer exhaustion, at this price and volume level.

     

    I'll avoid discussing the "supply line" (resistance) and "demand line" (support) meanings here. I'll just say that the falling resistance and flat support on falling volume predicts this sort of situation is likely, sans a catalyst, such as PR, news or breaking a key price point.

     

    So, what's next?

     

    First, the "wild cards" could come into play. First on my list is Quercus (undying gratitude to JP for informing so reliably and extensively on such as this). Obviously not currently in the market, but will another appearance be made due to pressures of which we are ignorant? Can't say of course. But, IIRC, we have evidence that Quercus has sold, in quantity, at the current and lower price levels.

     

    Second, impatient investors or those that say "What the hell's the difference in a penny or two in the long-term context?". At any moment, these folks could decide that this is the bottom or, regardless, this price is certainly "good enough". They'll get what are good deals, IMO, but likely not enough volume to drive a sustained price rise. Why? Because it's obvious that willing sellers at these levels are (temporarily?) exhausted and this set of new buyers are likely small in number because of the uncertainty surrounding the current price, volume and chart configurations, combined with no catalyst. And they are not likely to jump heavy if the sellers only appear at substantially higher prices until there is some kind of catalyst.

     

    If they enter, this often results in what's euphemistically called a "head fake". We get a short-term volume spike as these folks enter, a follow-on volume increase as other folks think "There she goes" and jump in and chase prices up for a short while and then ... volume and price fallback as those that started it all go quiet, those that thought a run up was in progress realize they've been had and dump, often at much lower prices than they paid.

     

    This is one reason why it's often advocated that one wait for a trend of higher prices and volume which is sustained before making an entry.

     

    What about "non-wild card" folks.

     

    That's also hard to nail down. But here's what I think.

     

    We wait. Not much happens for a while. Some folks say "Dead Money" for now and exit, leading to a small price drop. There's likely not a lot of those. Folks like me (us) say "There's my target" and gratefully relieve those folks of their burden.

     

    This causes a small volume rise and maybe the momentum traders waiting for a low price followed by the start of a move up jump on, increasing volume and price.

     

    But it's another "head fake", volume and price appreciation run out and the traders, which normally have firm stop-loss points in mind dump out, allowing price to go down again.

     

    So all this leads me to say pick your price, expect no immediate gains and be patient awaiting the catalysts that will cause a real sustained price appreciation to begin.

     

    Expect that you will not catch the bottom and you will not turn a quick buck.

     

    A lot of speculation, all MHO and I would be glad to hear corrections to any errors or alternative scenarios.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    You could not have stated it better IMO...thank you for your excellent TA and the effort that goes with it....and the "brain dump" too.

     

    I think we all need to hear what you just wrote at times....

     

    waiting for the catalyst on this end.
    17 Feb 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    The key thing to remember about Quercus is that it's always been a follower rather than a leader. It wants to account for 10% of daily trading volume, no more and no less. Last year when there were two or three big sellers, Quercus had to push and shove to get its 10%. As far as I can tell, there aren't any big sellers left that are trying to push a specific number of shares into the market. Absent an abrupt change in behavior by Quercus, which seems unlikely given their consistency over the last year, I don't see their selling as a pressure point on price.

     

    I have a different interpretation of what the FINRA data is showing. As you'll recall my working theory has been that the daily FINRA shorts represent sales by holders with physical stock certificates rather than shares in electronic form. My logic has been that delivery of paper certificates against sales doesn't constitute good delivery under FINRA rules until the shares are processed into the DTC system, which takes a week or two.

     

    There is a subtle but important distinction between the shares sold in December 2009 and the shares sold in February 2011. So I'll ask you to bear with me while I offer a brief securities law primer.

     

    Shares that are bought in a private placement are classified as "restricted securities" even if they're subject to a resale registration statement. That means the original purchaser can't simply deposit the shares in a brokerage account. The shares remain restricted until they're sold by the original purchaser. That first resale is the event that allows the shares to be deposited in a brokerage account. Therefore, resales of 2009 shares will always generate a transitory MM short position.

     

    Shares that are bought in a direct public offering are not restricted and the holder is free to deposit then in brokerage account at any time.

     

    If we assume the 2011 purchasers got physical stock certificates and those shares were processed through the DTC system in due course, we'd expect a high level of FINRA shorts while the shares were being processed and a lower level of FINRA shorts once the shares were available for immediate delivery in electronic form. It's still just a theory, but I think the FINRA short sales number collapsed because the new shares have finally been processed through DTC.

     

    I know you love thinking about market maker games, because everybody does. The reality is that market makers don't play those games in low-priced OTC stocks because carrying meaningful long or short positions is disastrous for their monthly "net capital reports." Short positions reduce net capital and long positions are written down to zero. So regardless of what happens with big stocks, market makers avoid the inventory function in OTC stocks like the plague because it costs them capital.

     

    I'm not sure I agree with your buyers exhaustion hypothesis. The offering left some of us angry, some of us disappointed with the offering price and all of us concerned that the new buyers might behave badly. Those kinds of emotions and fears usually make investors back away and take a breather until the dust settles, a process that can take two or three weeks. We're now reaching a point where the $.42 bottom is looking pretty solid (20% premium to the direct public offering price). When the price was $.62, there were huge short term risks about the availability of financing. A stock that costs a third less and has no financing risks has to be looking pretty attractive to folks who were grappling with a buying decision a couple weeks ago.

     

    Unless we're willing to assume that a substantial minority of the new buyers are only looking for a quick flip with a 20% spread, the current stable-looking bottom should not be long-lived. Aggregate demand for the stock has been building for a long-time and that process does not change quickly.
    17 Feb 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Hey John and HTL, FWIW, if I remember correctly, when I owned private placement shares in the 1990's, I often tried to convert as many restricted shares as I could into non-restricted shares ASAP. Which meant right after the restricted shares were subject to an effective registration stmt. That's BEFORE selling them. The purpose was to more easily sell them. No longer would I have the delivery hassles--power of attorneys, endless explanations to brokerage staff, possible clearing bank delays, and I could sell (some of) them cheaper and faster through a discount broker (the small priv placement firms charged much higher commish and had worse service). I'm not sure, but I may even have been able to margin them easier. There may be different processing now, of course.

     

    And a question: today, when AXPW priv placement shares are sold, would the resulting temporary MM short simply be closed, without a mkt transaction, when good shares were delivered? I thought I read here someone saying it would result in a purchase showing up on the tape. It's just delayed delivery of the asset sold, no? I'm out of my league here, so sorry in advance if I'm way off.
    17 Feb 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    Things were looser in the past than they are today and it's far more difficult to get restricted shares deposited today than it was in the 90s.

     

    If you think about what happens in a market maker transaction, his purchase is shares is never a short, regardless of whether the seller delivers paper or electrons. It's his resale of the shares that gives rise to the short if he's taken paper instead of electrons. When the paper shares clear DTC, the short is covered automatically and everything's in balance.
    17 Feb 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    JLP & Futurist... I don't see much rise in price until one of two things happen:

     

    1. Quercus is gone (even their 10% selling provides some sort of cap) the "bottom fishermen" know these shares are there and are being sold so they want them as cheap as they can get them.

     

    2. A catalyst (sales) to move price higher...effectively takes Quercus out faster allowing the stock to move higher substantially until the last purchasers of the latest offering begin to take profits....Hopefully they are strong and looking for a 10 bagger from here as we are.
    17 Feb 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I base my analysis on supply and demand inflection points because I know them well. The last two years were characterized by way more willing sellers than willing buyers. The only possible outcome was a long and painful price decline. Today the willing sellers that cause the problems are historical footnotes because they don't own any stock. Quercus is the last man standing.

     

    The run in the first couple months of last year had nothing to do with events and was a simple supply and demand inflection that Special Situations and Quercus jointly crushed when they started selling competitively in March.

     

    I don't see any heavyweights left to compete with Quercus as it tries to account for 10% of daily volume. Only time will tell, but I think you'll be surprised, unless you want to assume that at least a substantial minority of the new purchasers will be happy to flip for a quick and dirty 20% spread.
    17 Feb 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    John, excellent information.

     

    Just your luck to end with the statement you did when we drop to a solid $0.41 range. Anyway, on to your points.

     

    On Quercus, I didn't think they would pressure, I was just thinking if they have to sell some more, the current price level would not prevent them from doing so. At current volumes, any added volume at all might drop price a bit. LoL about that thought though.

     

    As to the FINRA stuff, you are spot-on of course, if you are addressing fails-to-deliver, rather than daily short sales.

     

    But I do want to make a distinction between daily short sales and fails to deliver. Daily short sales are, IMO, quite a different animal than the fails, which is what I believe you noted in the past correlates quite strongly with the certificate conversion issues.

     

    I have no argument about that conclusion regarding AXPW and fails-to-deliver. Perhaps you meant to address fails to deliver?

     

    As to daily short sales ...

     

    Pick any company, any market, major or minor that has volume, e.g. CPST which I already track, that has no certificate conversion issues. And I'll post daily short-sales volumes that are similar (may be higher or lower percentages and volumes) to what we see with AXPW. Here's a brief recent snippet from CPST, which has no certificate conversion issues, 10/3/11 through yesterday

     

    12.77% 19.68% 32.93% 38.54% 50.58%
    43.30% 44.34% 41.07% 52.38% 52.67%
    38.83% 36.59% 48.53% 44.94% 33.56%
    38.00% 29.75% 37.02% 41.27% 36.42%
    39.62% 40.95% 39.03% 31.60% 46.53%
    57.02% 52.91% 55.16% 45.68% 51.55%
    49.48% 35.19% 39.31% 34.78% 45.61%
    24.91% 28.90% 39.67% 33.35% 37.29%
    37.74% 53.91% 47.56% 48.00% 34.96%
    49.94% 40.53% 45.19% 33.67% 28.95%
    44.51% 39.96% 45.82% 45.16% 51.25%
    56.01% 52.03% 57.32% 51.61% 40.07%
    ========= 2012 ============
    41.96% 38.68% 50.24% 31.46% 60.17%
    34.86% 38.51% 44.07% 35.43% 29.16%
    43.23% 37.84% 38.92% 29.02% 43.13%
    41.95% 37.54% 41.07% 22.30% 33.04%
    24.62% 35.25% 27.00% 31.20% 41.58%
    47.55% 45.31% 49.03% 24.64% 35.82%
    42.33% 61.31%

     

    On most companies, most of the time, I believe these are just the side-effects of market-maker operations and the fact that shares need to transit from the holder (“street name broker”) through a process to eventually hit market-maker portfolios and get either netted out, delivered to a buyer or sold into the market.

     

    Anyway, if you would like I can easily get daily short sales for any stock you have in mind that reports through FINRA, certificate issues or none, and give you daily short sales information through early 2010 IIRC. Ditto for fails-to-dilever.

     

    That doesn't mean I don't believe in market-maker games. After all, they are human and for-profit. They are no more nor less prone to shenanigans than any other segment in this market, IMO. But I don't believe most of what we see is illicit. A slightly higher percentage could be termed “immoral” I guess. Regardless, I envision and investigate the potential games as part of my learning and give credence to discussions by those that claim to have been in the business, such as in the link I posted recently.

     

    I can point you to instances of highly suspicious activity in CPST, which I watch like I do AXPW. I can point you to an NG-related article I wrote that clearly demonstrates “front running” by someone. None of it is proof, but if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, ...

     

    I learned a long time ago that if there's a way to steal, some percentage of those in a position to do so will do so.

     

    Buyers exhaustion: we are not talking the same things I think. In my TA analysis there are price points and patterns that occur that indicate that buyers are exhausted at a given price. Ditto for sellers. That doesn't mean there are no more. It just means that right at a given price at a given time with given circumstances, either the buyers or sellers are not willing. This is what results in, e.g., a falling resistance line such as that we have just seen with AXPW.

     

    Without getting long-winded, if buyers were willing at $0.45 sellers would not drop to $0.42. The falling resistance line we just watched on AXPW is the demonstration of supply/demand issues you have often discussed, but as it relates to shorter-term market price and such.

     

    One could argue that what we've seen this last week is rather willing sellers. It's a difficult, and IMO uncertain, distinction. But in my use of “buyers exhaustion” I'm suggesting that unwilling sellers are making compromises on their price because they can't find enough buyers willing at the price they are initially seeking.

     

    This results in exactly what we've observed: constantly falling highs, regardless of volume, because buyers are not willing at the price the sellers really want. The buyers at a given price level have been exhausted for now.

     

    MHO, in (mostly) ignorance, as usual,
    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    The conversion delays on paper stock certificates show up in two places. The first is the FINRA daily short reports because delivery of physical stock certificates is not good delivery to the MM until the conversion is completed. That means every MM sale that had its genesis in a paper certificate is a transitory short. The second is the fails to deliver data because it takes more than three days to do the paper to electron conversion.

     

    The striking parallels between the long-term FINRA data you so graciously provided a month ago and the identifiable selling activity in Axion's stock for the last two years gave rise to the thesis I floated in two pieces that graced earlier Concentrators including:

     

    http://bit.ly/xgGi5R

     

    http://bit.ly/xL29E3

     

    I'm not proposing a general theory for all companies, I'm observing a fact pattern for Axion.
    17 Feb 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    OK. I was thinking that you were attributing all the short sales to conversion delays.

     

    My apologies.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1399) | Send Message
     
    Once the price starts turning up, fear of sellers would quickly subside until we reach a higher range. But, what will start the snowball?

     

    It seems most of us here have made our purchases and are waiting for the next PR. Maybe the new Wiki will be the jump start.
    17 Feb 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    HTL ... thanks for your analysis. From my point of view (and likely some others) it substantiates what I can only attest to "gut feelings" on my part and hence, reinforces my patience. Which grows nervous and thin at times. I think we should have an informal pool ... we all know this isn't going anywhere now in the absence of sales (or at least, news) and so the question is WHEN will that be? None of us know, so maybe we all put in a dollar, take a wild guess, and the winner buys first round in Honduras?
    18 Feb 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    I'll have to pass on the Honduras and the pool.

     

    As to the analysis, I'm very glad it is helpful. There's always doubts, especially if I hit a bad stretch.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Feb 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Political blackmail ?

     

    NStar agrees to buy Cape Wind power to win state blessing on merger
    http://bo.st/xL50kH

     

    "NStar still must work out the details of its power purchase with Cape Wind, but the deal means the offshore wind project would soon have enough power under contract to attract the financing it needs to start construction.
    NStar spokeswoman Caroline Allen said the utility’s promise to purchase Cape Wind Power came after a year of “thoughtful consideration by the state agencies and our companies” on several issues, including rates and transparency, and the use of clean energy sources.
    NStar had originally resisted Patrick’s demand to buy power from Cape Wind because of its high cost -- 18.7 cents per kilowatt hour in its first year -- compared to more conventional energy sources."

     

    Would be nice to see AXPW somewhere down the "power" line to capture some of that wind! (pun intended)
    17 Feb 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Sure smells like coercion to me.

     

    Another case of mal-investment to prove out long-term?

     

    Maybe not. Maybe we'll get lucky this time as the government, in effect, allocates capital to favored industries or organizations.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    A simple psychological analysis:
    I think we can all agree that only sales of the PbC will put air into our balloon. Similarly, events that make the probability of future sales more likely in the average mind will start to drive demand and will at the same time tend to restrict supply as holders expect the price to rise over time.

     

    In the absence of sales, and the absence of news events likely to drive future sales, the average holder will begin to doubt his judgement. What is going on he/she thinks? This is, after all, a highly speculative play? There are many risks, even if we like the technology. Can it meaningfully break into any of its target markets? What if it doesn't cut the mustard for any number of reasons; performance, cost, manufacturability, mis-management, ahead-of-its-time? After all, success stories in this space are the exception not the rule. Why do we think we are smarter that the rest of the crowd?

     

    We know that auto is some way off, we can accept that, but what is happening with the railroads? Did we make a sale to NS? Are they field testing? Why is the 999 sitting in Altoona on an extended vacation?
    The grid looks promising, but really we have no idea of a timeline there. Is the product attractive to the market, given the high cost of electronics that must accompany the battery in this configuration? All of these and many other unanswered questions, can serve to promote the erosion of confidence in the average investor.

     

    So as time passes without a steady trickle of reassuring evidence of advancement of the plan, is it not only to be expected that supply with tend to increase a little and demand shrink a little, leading to a slow, but steady price diminution until it becomes collectively perceived as a bargain, once again an attractive risk reward play?

     

    To me, we are in this phase, and where the base lies is unclear. But, in fact, it is a moving number. Because of all the reasons above, absent clear evidence of business successes, the base in 6 months will be lower than the base today.

     

    The holders bet that salvation is a comin, but that sentiment can change over time, incrementally. I wait and I hold, but the seeds of doubt are always there, waiting to germinate.
    17 Feb 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Excellent discussion of the process Anthlj.

     

    In spite of my technical bent, it's those sorts of things I try to add in to my considerations of what the charts show.

     

    And I also try and use that to my advantage by doing what I hope is a better job of saying "how low can it go".

     

    I'm not sure how much I correctly factor that in though - psychology of many folks often escapes me in everyday life, and maybe more so the markets.

     

    I'll never know.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    anthlj

     

    You are describing exactly the worries I have.
    17 Feb 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    that is why setting your targets ahead of time, managing expectations and having patience on both ends of the trades helps set up success.
    17 Feb 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else thinking Quercus might be back in today?

     

    Nice volume rebound, lower price, buy:sell at 15:32 is 1:2.37 on total volume of 197K at that time.

     

    Average trade size (44 trades) is 4,477, up just a wee bit if I recall the prior ones. Not sure on that without looking.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Non-Quercus is at least 90% of the volume, IMO, so only a bit player here. The much bigger question is who is doing all the big selling? Approx. 40k-50k shares at or near the offer almost all day. 42 cents didn't stop 'em. Maybe it's some recent placement folks, and they're getting more impatient, but not so sure. The end doesn't feel like it's here, to me.

     

    anthlj--I agree that absent announcements of progress over time, we drift lower. More people will quit than join. In the short run, I welcome the opp to add at cheaper prices. I think a lot of folks think the same way. But I DO expect announcements of progress over time. Otherwise, why be here?
    17 Feb 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    MrInvestor: As a WAG, since the volume is up, but doesn't seem enough for the recent "big bucks" buyers to sell and make that much, I'm guessing that retail investors that bought at higher prices decided they couldn't take the stress.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    I still scratch my head watching these 100 share sales after a largers sale at a lower price. I am new at this small micro companies but these seem fishy. Any good reason for it.??

     

    Plus shouldn't the company come out with some sort of an announcement at this point or am i way off base?? But i understand that patience is needed here but my gut expects more info to help the long term investors to kinda calm the nerves..imo
    17 Feb 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    MAP, IMO it's market-makers trying to drum up a little volume by showing some trades at the higher prices (the ask).

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    some serious trading went on in the last few minutes....
    17 Feb 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Yes sir!

     

    I'm thinking we *will* see a Quercus filing in the next week or so.

     

    There was quite a shift in the trade sizes, frequency and prices of bids and asks.

     

    I don't think retail folks could cause this much activity all of a sudden approaching EOD.

     

    It'll be interesting to see what the volume looked like just before the surge began and see if it loos like it approaches about 10% of what was seen up until that point.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Just my opinion: perhaps, with volume increasing at end of trading, was thinking I would get my order filled because:
    1. it is Friday and people just want to get orders filled.
    2. when Quercus was selling end of December, I think I recall a volume spike near the end of trading on several days.

     

    Or maybe not that simple.
    17 Feb 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Proud owner of some .40 shares that are now in a secure and happy home. Still averaging down.
    17 Feb 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    i was not chosen... had a 5k order in all day at .40 cents, no luck.
    17 Feb 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    My order was in since about Feb. 7. Don't know how orders are filled: by age of order, brokerage service?
    17 Feb 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Being a newbie those last 5 minutes were pretty interesting...gotta tell you that !!

     

    map
    17 Feb 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Somebody needed to close out their week...
    17 Feb 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • jvanwest
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    New Battery research out of Sandia Labs,

     

    enjoy,
    http://bit.ly/xNW8nF
    JVW
    17 Feb 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Should we dump all existing battery stocks? "MetILs are a new, promising battery chemistry that might provide the next generation of stationary storage battery technology, replacing lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries and providing significantly higher energy storage density for these applications."

     

    If written as HTL would write it it would be:

     

    MetILs are a new, promising battery chemistry that *might* provide the next generation of stationary storage battery technology, and *may* replace lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries and *might* provide significantly higher energy storage density for these applications."

     

    Any guess on time to market? I would suggest 15 years if at all.
    17 Feb 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I noticed when I read the Sandia Labs item that an axionista named Tim has already left a comment. They're everywhere ;-)
    18 Feb 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Sihibi: Did you notice the "PcB" not PbC both times in the comment.

     

    Tim, whoever you are: At least the company name is correct. 8-)
    18 Feb 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Nice job "Tim" of linking the Sandia story to Bangwhiz's website. Instant information to anyone wanting a few more facts.

     

    "Axionistas, We have the Power"
    18 Feb 2012, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Oops! was a long day for me. Should have taken more time...
    18 Feb 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • jvanwest
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    I think you are probably right. I was born and raised in Albuquerque and my Dad works for Sandia (he forwarded me the article knowing that I am interested in Batteries) unfortunately they have a pretty bad track record of getting all of the high tech research they develop and spinning it off into companies. With Sandia and Los Alamos both world class research laboratories in New Mexico, we should be another silicon valley in terms of tech startups!

     

    JVW
    17 Feb 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    jvanwest,
    Father works at Sandia, you a molecular biologist. Sounds like some brains in the family. I think that is fantastic. Congrats.
    17 Feb 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article about the Sandia research. Unfortunately it was short on details about exactly what the chemistry of "Metal Ion Liquids" involves. The article referenced ferrocene as the comparison standard. http://bit.ly/wgGAOJ

     

    Ferrocene is not liquid, and not water soluble. It requires an organic solvent to be liquified (toxic, flammable, probably carcinogenic in California, etc.) I was an organic chemist in my undergrad years, and from what I recall of metallo-organic chemistry after three decades, I wonder how practical this approach would be.

     

    Most reactive organic molecules that would chelate with a metal ion are large and complex and not going to be liquids at ambient temperatures. The ones that are liquids at ambient temps are volatile and typically highly flammable and highly reactive. Organometallic salts would likely need high operating temps to be practical in this application, which makes them not much different from current molten sodium storage systems and the like. Not likely to replace the LA/PbC chemistry in portable or vehicular applications, by my slightly informed guess.

     

    I certainly do not want to be driving a vehicle sitting on top of several gallons of *highly reactive* and highly flammable organic carcinogens. Gasoline is bad enough. This stuff could be far worse.
    21 Feb 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Surely its not a surprise to see small holders bailing with small increases.
    The present wisdom is that it might be some time before there is news and a meaningful movement in the share price.

     

    At least they have possibly a gain. Who knows the cash might be needed for groceries.
    17 Feb 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This small holder bought a block at $.408. Not the best price of the day, but satisfying. I now have enough to do some trading if the price suddenly shoots up again. Last time that happened I couldn't bare to part with any of my horded shares :-)
    18 Feb 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    OK folks, we are now extremely visible on Google. Whether you search for "Axionpower" or "Axion Power" we are on the first page of the Google results right below Axion, Turbostart, and Yahoo Finance with Axion Concentrator 67 and 65.

     

    Here's screenshots of search results using this terms:
    http://bit.ly/wNHn0B

     

    http://bit.ly/AvfO6D

     

    I don't remember search terms but the new wiki and APC web site also hit the first page thanks to the link from the Wiki. I think I'll watch what I have to say from now on a little more carefully.
    17 Feb 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    bang.....Don't forget to list AXPW in the search terms
    17 Feb 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » bang: I saw the same. Pretty amazing, eh? Soon Imax is going to have us in 3-D, too. Statue of Liberty raising her skirt for a donation of some wildly underpriced Axion shares.

     

    Maybe we can get McDonald's to offer a free share of Axion with a Quarter Pounder supersized meal.
    17 Feb 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Maya, only if they pay retail for the shares :-)
    18 Feb 2012, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Good idea. The shares would be titanium - no one could sell one share with the selling commissions until it hit at least $4.00. On my broker $3.95 a trade plus .005 a share below at least $1.00 a share, maybe $2.00 a share. Talk about "strong hands"!

     

    I'm locked in at .2.95 on a grandfather deal on Optionshouse when they recently raised the rates to $3.95 a trade - at least until they have enough new business to blow off the old customers. They've served me well with good customer service.
    18 Feb 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    A picture is worth a thousand words.

     

    This is what 36 MW-hours of battery energy storage looks like.

     

    Basically a PowerCube the size of a football field.

     

    http://bit.ly/upCmuw

     

    One can only dream that someone,somewhere, will give the PbC its opportunity in the grid related market.
    18 Feb 2012, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    This is what I have referred to many times here .... when I mention China or Warren Buffett...Just one of these deals makes AXPW.

     

    If BYD could pull this off, we could too.
    18 Feb 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    There are multiple paths for any thing to become successful
    1. Have a great product that outperforms (price and/or function) the dominant well-known branded products.
    2. Advertise and promote an otherwise generic product.
    3. Get other entities, especially a Government, to encourage the product.

     

    This applies to music bands. You can make start in the garage and make great music and slowly build a following. It take time and grueling commitment. Or, you can start with a promoter that begins selling concert tickets before picking the band members.

     

    Axion has to compete totally on product performance. But once the product is accepted and known, a political change in the wind won't stop them.
    18 Feb 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    BYD can pull this off because state grid, BYD, and the Chinese government are all in bed together. The chinese will not deal with AXPW unless it had a Chinese partner. ZBB made a partnership with two companies that are major suppliers to State Grid. This is there way in. They had to give up 2/3rds of the profit but are hoping that 1/3rd of a Huge market is better than no market.

     

    Risks abound when doing international deals. Theft by foriegn corporations and foriegn governments are often a reality.

     

    Axion now has an in with PJM in the US. That is enough to get the ball rolling. If the Viridity data can turn some heads at PJM then be assured all in the industry will know of Axion.

     

    As JP has stated. Right now it is up to the product to produce results.

     

    But man, I can see that football field of a PowerCube just sitting there storing wind power and smoothing out the grid at the same time. Just working its little tail off for thousands and thousands of cheap cycles.
    Bring it on BYD. Lets see what you got.
    19 Feb 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I agree, Futurist.

     

    ZBB's looking at direct Chinese competition in the near future as the likelihood of their intellectual property slipping form their control approaches certainty. Had AXPW entered into a similar situation I for one would not touch it.
    20 Feb 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Triple,
    I don't disagree that ZBB is taking a risk. But at the same time their newfound partners suffer when the theft occurs. I bet big players like they are partnered with have the power to keep the tech in house.

     

    One never knows. They simply make a decision and go from there. China can reverse engineer the PbC and not pay Axion anything. This takes time. On the other hand a large (State grid) partner can protect Axions interest and get the needed product immediately.
    Some people in the US believe that big oil and big tech companies steal protected products all the time. The court system can be a blessing if you can afford to receive its protection. Sometimes the Godfather type protection system is faster and cheaper.

     

    We will see where it goes but at some point the product will be demanded in Asia if I am right about its potential.
    20 Feb 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    China's record protecting the intellectual property rights of foreign nationals is abysmal.
    20 Feb 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Very true.
    But I would bet that China protecting the intellectual property rights of Chinese partners is a different story. I am not certain of the truth of my bet. I have never seen a study done on such matters.
    But my thesis does equate with the Chinese mandate of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Its also important to have people on the ground in China that are familiar with Chinese customs and biz practices. ZBB added Tim Martin in November who seems to have a good bit of Chinese experience.

     

    "Mr. Martin joined ZBB Energy in November 2011. Prior to joining ZBB, Martin was CEO and founder of On Demand Training (ODT) - a Beijing-based WFOE (Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprise) involved in developing WAP applications for Nokia China. Before ODT, Mr. Martin founded and owned The Tadpole Group, a Beijing-based consultancy that advised Chinese small businesses and educational entities on western business best practices. Prior to forming The Tadpole Group, Mr. Martin spent over 10 years with American Power Conversion (APC - now part of Schneider Electric) in a number of senior leadership, management, and technical sales roles throughout North America and Asia. He began his career at TrippLite Power, where he progressed through a number of sales channel development roles, including Canadian Sales Manager and (US) National Accounts Manager."
    20 Feb 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For the record, I have heard TG talk about Axion and China.
    20 Feb 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • lsd_lsm
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/zFG2MF

     

    Interesting article about demonstration projects versus real life application of energy storage systems in China versus the US as we wait for a buyer to say that the Pbc has proven its mettle.
    21 Feb 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Note that ZBB's collaboration with Honam of South Korea pits another "Big Boy" in the "Asia" fight:

     

    "Pursuant to the Collaboration Agreement, the parties will negotiate a license agreement under which upon the completion of the collaboration project and the receipt by the Company of all payments due under the Collaboration Agreement, the Company shall grant to Honam: (1) a fully paid-up, exclusive and royalty-free license to sell and manufacture the Version 3 Battery Module in Korea and (2) non-exclusive rights to sell the Version 3 Battery Module in Japan, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. In connection with such non-exclusive rights, Honam will pay a royalty to the Company."
    21 Feb 2012, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Here's a good example of how foreign investment in "Capitalism with Chinese characteristics" worked out for the foreign investors in the Chinese power industry:

     

    http://reut.rs/yiMsOs

     

    It took them a while, but it would appear that they are now trying to disengage while they are still able to do so.
    21 Feb 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    The article does a good job of explaining the differences between a free market economy and a controlled market economy. They are not the same and never will be.

     

    However, the fact that the economy is controlled in no way means that American businesses do not make money in China. It simply means that an American company had better pick their Chinese partners carefully and be ever watchful. GM is having a great time making and selling cars in China. Even with 90 competitors they are able to make money.

     

    Axion isn't ready today for the Chinese market. But the plans will need to be made soon as to how to approach the issue.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Another example of Chinese gov market distortion: Blood samples used for diagnostic health tests are not allowed to be sent out of the country. Whatever the original reason for this preposterous law, the result is that no non-Chinese company can enter the multibillion dollar market for diagnostic blood testing.
    From Pg 54 of the Feb. 20-26 Bloomberg Businessweek magazine.
    22 Feb 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Weekend Reading:

     

    (Bloomberg) 10Q: How AES Captures and Stores the Wind
    By Kari Lundgren - Feb 16, 2012

     

    Wonder who we've got talking to AES?

     

    http://bloom.bg/xRfzkf

     

    From their more general Sustainability Section:
    http://bloom.bg/xQveWf

     

    AES Brings Real Utility-Scale Energy Storage to the Grid (SEPTEMBER 13, 2011)
    http://bit.ly/phyvNF

     

    "Big news first: AES is bidding on a 400-megawatt battery storage system for a Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) request for new power. This project would be the largest battery-based storage system to-date and is being considered as an alternative to new generation on Long Island. It's a 1,600-megawatt-hour system providing operating reserve services."

     

    Zack's take on Maxwell's latest quarter:
    http://bit.ly/ocX0jE
    18 Feb 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    WT> Some of those links appear to be in error unless you've edited them.. Please check them. Thanks.
    18 Feb 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    The Maxwell link should be http://bit.ly/yV0zpl

     

    I don't shorten them, I take it seekingalpha.com does that.

     

    I have occasional problems with them screwing up links I post, and it's kinda annoying! (although maybe it's bitl.y ???? )
    18 Feb 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... [quote] Zahurancik, "but we track over 100 technology companies at various levels of activity -- with a handful that we think are in the top tier." These include flow batteries, lithium-ion, and advanced lead acid batteries. [quote].

     

    In my mind, a facility like this with all of the above mixed in doing the same work is the next step in the storage energy business. I wouldn't be at all against the government subsidizing this to the point that "we" would replace the losing technology or modifying the mix to optimize it over time. Hopefully the mix would be American made products.
    18 Feb 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    When the Chinese decided to do a 100+ MW storage installation, they decided to do a multi-phase projects that started with competitive side-by-side testing to determine the best solution based on performance rather than awarding contracts based on promises. – http://bit.ly/wcByCb – Wouldn't it be great if somebody in the alleged cradle of free market capitalism thought it might make sense to have a horse race before awarding the roses.

     

    Nah! The politically and ideologically connected elite would never stand for it.
    18 Feb 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    LT> RE your comment "bang.....Don't forget to list AXPW in the search terms" the google search results for this term are terrible. Links to brand x board, a slimy report seller with a "fraud alert" or similar words, all in all very poor impression.

     

    As for what can be done about it I don't know for sure at this point. Maybe put the words "Stock Symbol AXPW" in the Concentrator header, the Wiki and the APC website.

     

    If I move the APC website to its own url it might help, particularly if I made the domain name "AXPW-Axion-Power.org" Google doesn't see the dashes, it sees three separate words, so it would probably make the first page for AXPW as a search term in time, particularly if linked from the APC's and Wiki.

     

    For web geeks, if the URl was "AXPW_Axion_Power" then the only way you would find it on Google would be to search that exact term with the all the words and the underscores.
    18 Feb 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    bang

     

    Thanks for that "web geek" info. It may become usefull on other projects of mine.
    18 Feb 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Poul> Google looks hard at page titles, sub-titles, and the first 2-3 words of each paragraph, with the paragraphs at the top more important than following paragraphs. Font sizes influence search results also, especially headline fonts versus 10 point text..

     

    If you wanted to score high in Google search results for the term AXPW you would have a page title like "AXPW - Axion Power" then a subtitle like "AXPW Stock set to climb in 2012". Then the first paragraph would read "AXPW, Axion Power stock symbol on the OTC exchange, currently trading for .40 cents, is poised for rapid gain when Axion Power International, Inc. releases it's next patented PbC battery sale."

     

    Structured that way the words "AXPW" are at the top 3 times along with the words "stock" and" Axion Power" repeated several times in close proximity. It would score high for relevance to the word "AXPW" which Google knows is the stock symbol for Axion Power from many sources.

     

    I could get a job writing this kind of search engine positioning drivel but it would drive me bonkers. Web Yellow page and other directories, and many other similar sites, hire people in droves to work at home and produce this stuff.
    18 Feb 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Bang
    Thank you very much.
    20 Feb 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Really...REALLY?
    OK...bailout an American automaker(s)...and auto finance units et al...witness Ally Financial, aka GMAC ...one could engage in an honest argument on the pros and cons...but a $3.5B DOE low interest loan to an Italian automaker?

     

    Sir John, I am in agreement with you...again...
    "Wouldn't it be great if somebody in the alleged cradle of free market capitalism thought it might make sense to have a horse race before awarding the roses.
    Nah! The politically and ideologically connected elite would never stand for it."

     

    Chrysler Pulls Loan Request
    http://on.wsj.com/xFoJ7D
    18 Feb 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/17/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Through 14:53 (an arbitrary time that visually seems to be just before a big jump in volume and price activity), we had a total of 61 trades with volume of 252,632. The average trade size was 4,141. In the next hour-plus we added ~50% more trades, added 233,600 to the day's volume (92.5% of total volume through 14:53), and saw an average trade size of ~7,787, 88% larger than the average through 14:53.

     

    I wonder if we'll see a filing from Quercus with volume much larger than the 10% of total volume (~48.6K). Of course much of the volume could be scared retailers or another large holder jumping out due to fear of further falls in price. I *guess* much of the volume could be from "flippers".

     

    That above presumes that the shares from Quercus's sale of 2/9 have already passed through the system. This may not be a valid assumption, but even if they've not done so the size of that sale would be immaterial in light of today's volume.

     

    On to the more mundane ...

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 92,800, 365,700, and 27,732 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 486,232. Buy:sell at EOD was 1:3.94 and buy:(sell+unknown) ended at 1:4.24. Trades were up to 91, giving an average trade size of 5,343. This is up substantially from the average of the prior 6 trading sessions of 3,681 (most recent average trade sizes, latest first: 4,892, 3,245 and 3,025). Based on what I posted above, most of the size increase came from the last hour-plus of trading action.

     

    Looking at the daily short sales data, we see that day-over-day volume jumped up 268% while the short sales jumped ~843%. We can bet that either a large volume of sell orders or an exceptionally big one came to the market-maker(s) today. The question will be when do the shares backing those orders hit the market-maker(s) and will they be netted at the DTCC or be released into the market.

     

    Since I don't know which will occur ... I had a rather large post laying out my thoughts on this but decided it would be better to make a separate post on that. Look for that post later.

     

    206 Vol 392838, Sht 202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    207 Vol 413428, Sht 094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1
    208 Vol 570071, Sht 115522 20.26% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4500 b:s 1:1.06
    209 Vol 335713, Sht 094570 28.17% LHC 0.4251 0.4600 0.4300 b:s 1:4.76
    210 Vol 220029, Sht 088190 40.08% LHC 0.4220 0.4500 0.4400 b:s 4.01:1
    213 Vol 239000, Sht 105800 44.27% LHC 0.4201 0.4550 0.4392 b:s 1.89:1
    214 Vol 102654, Sht 056004 54.56% LHC 0.4350 0.4400 0.4400 b:s UNKNOW
    215 Vol 350513, Sht 035300 10.07% LHC 0.4200 0.4399 0.4240 b:s 1:3.64
    216 Vol 132100, Sht 006097 04.62% LHC 0.4100 0.4249 0.4200 b:s 15.7:1
    217 Vol 486232, Sht 057485 11.82% LHC 0.4000 0.4250 0.4000 b:s 1:3.94

     

    HardToLove
    19 Feb 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    With the lack of anything new coming out of Axion for the moment I went poking around on Axion's website to see if I could garner anything that would hint at the future. Under "Careers" there is a new job posted for a Corporate Controller reporting to CFO, Chuck Trego.

     

    The requirements for the position are stiff. Accounting degree, CPA, at least 15 years experience and here's the good stuff:

     

    "Will have a minimum of 10 to 15 years of progressively responsible accounting experience in a manufacturing corporation of which at least 5 years must be in a manufacturing company of at least $50 million in revenue."

     

    I love the sound of that - "at least $50M in revenue". You can bet that TG and Chuck Trego developed this position description, so if anyone is wondering about how Axion's top executives foresee future revenue growth at Axion this is the best estimate and forecast available.

     

    See full position description here: http://bit.ly/yEViu8
    19 Feb 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Great find Bang!!
    19 Feb 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    Kudos for finding that.
    19 Feb 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    I love your diligence. Totally get it.

     

    Love the lateral thinking and do very much appreciate the effort.

     

    As an aside, please if you can, take a little time off. Its a long weekend and I believe you could enjoy a bit of down time.

     

    Our crowd are obviously cooling out, maybe you could too.

     

    I am the sole support for my 86 year old mum. I suspect that I might share some of your challenges.

     

    19 Feb 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I'm mostly house-bound except quick trips for food and meds, with one afternoon a week off from 24/7 care. The Concentrators, the market, some good web friends, phone calls from my girlfriend in DC (I'm in Atlanta temporarily) and noodling Axion are my only links to sanity. Please monitor my posts for signs of dementia.:>D
    19 Feb 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Bang. I looked myself a couple weeks ago and no positions were on their website. So it's been listed since then.

     

    Excellent to see the sense of urgency, too:

     

    "For consideration, email a resume with salary requirements to shollander@axionpower.com no later than February 29, 2012."

     

    The prep for sales continues...

     

    8^)
    20 Feb 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if this gives any weight to my rough guesstimate that with things seeming to start to get off the ground we might see a PR/news release late March and every couple months or so.

     

    I sure like the sounds of this.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    My personal prognostication is for a significant sale within the next 6 months.
    20 Feb 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Agree with that because if I were Vani that would be my target.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Jeezus. that position was written for me if I lived in the area. Wife won't let me move even though our house deal just fell through.
    21 Feb 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Note: "No relocation assistance provided."

     

    What if anything does that say to the candidate?

     

    Does anyone offer relocation assistance these days?

     

    Even though they say it, is it really negotiable, and does it say anything about the candidate if they try to do so?
    23 Feb 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3882) | Send Message
     
    :-) WTB, your questions prompt recollection that Dantam got a $20K signing bonus.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I think the pool of applicants / potential candidates must be a lot larger for this position than for Vani's.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    Good stuff! I have a subscription in which the author claims he often uses job postings in his research trying to determine exactly what a company is up to and what they are planning for. I've never done it myself, but it is pretty insightful.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Relocation assistance is what my sister does for a living; help coordinate high salaried people to relocate, and the company pays for it. It's quite common with high end talent.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I've got about 25% of the powder I have available ready for the bottom whenever that comes. If anyone thinks Axion is going to go through the entire year without significant PbC sales then they need to sell now. Axion has been completely methodical about developing both the capability to produce the PbC, and now the ability to sell it.

     

    Axion's pipeline has been filling up with leads for years before it actually had a product to sell. Now that it has one I think they will harvest as much business as possible as quickly as possible. They didn't hire Vani to do market analysis - they hired him to represent the company and its products and close deals.

     

    Eventually he and TG will knock one out of the park. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't followed the way this company has been connecting the dots correctly for years.

     

    There are times during these "no new news" times when this thread reminds me of taking my kids to Florida with "are we there yet?" whines coming from the back seat.
    19 Feb 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1399) | Send Message
     
    Nice find BW. Spot on. I also am keeping dry powder. My trading blocks have become long term holds, even if that violates any trading rules.

     

    As the marketing director said in a company I worked for, the product sells itself. We are here in the APC because we believe in PbC, not because we believe in Tom, or forecasts, or EPS growth, or Lithium sucks, or whatever. If PbC really is as good and cheap as we say it is, how can there possibly be no sales coming up? The fact is, it's prime time!

     

    Note the last PR on the PJM sales stated: "Axion Power, working in partnership with Philadelphia-based Viridity Energy on this and other projects, will initially participate in the PJM market as a 100 kw resource that will soon be ramped to higher kw levels."

     

    From the last 10Q: "We will need working capital to fund our anticipated continued growth of sales in traditional batteries and PbC products."

     

    Though the company noted that adoption is taking longer than expected, that doesn't mean it's not happening. It mostly points that customers are taking longer to test them, which we know.

     

    Who knows when the big sale with BMW or NS will go through, but I would NOT bet that it won't happen eventually. Until then we got another year's money supply.

     

    During this time PJM might ramp up and produce some good revs. Or Axion might get another contract to produce normal batteries, like they did last year. All should help towards the big sale.
    19 Feb 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    The Naval District Washington (NDW) NetZero Pilot is due to be completed this month. It appears there could be a little more to this story than I first thought...

     

    NDW Smartgrid video
    http://bit.ly/wzx17R

     

    NDW Path to Net Zero
    http://bit.ly/xZbhum

     

    NDW Implements Energy CONOPS
    http://bit.ly/ycbeDC

     

    NDW Path to NetZero
    http://bit.ly/xYStrK

     

    NDW Leeds the way
    http://bit.ly/wMMwuB

     

    The Army too
    http://bit.ly/yFzsHo

     

    And if I am not mistaken, NDW is served by PJM...
    19 Feb 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Arg! Caption for second link should be NDW Demos SmartGrid.
    19 Feb 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Tim> "It appears there could be a little more to this story than I first thought..." Your dang right it is. No wonder TG mentions military applications frequently. It is a huge opportunity.

     

    I was stationed at a remote missile site in the Arctic in the 60's and the way missile sites work is all of the sites in a region are at varying states of readiness to fire. If you are the "hot" site you must be ready to fire in 5 minutes. When you were the "hot" site we had two pretty big diesel generators running all the time in case we lost external power.

     

    Would be a great application for a Powercube to hold the fort down while the gen sets spun up without burning all that fuel 24/7. With our multiple big radars and all the electronics we would have needed a good sized installation.
    19 Feb 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    By the way, I don't think Lithium Ion would have cut it for our missile site. It was usually well below zero most of the year. 20 below was considered a good day. 30 below was uncomfortable. At 45 below I don't care what you were wearing you were instantly freezing your butt off.
    20 Feb 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tim: I'm only a little more than halfway through the first Navy vid link.

     

    Enjoying. More to go.

     

    Been doing a little traveling today, and last week.

     

    My favorite four "paraphrasing" Navy words so far are this: Off World Energy Source.

     

    What exactly does that mean?

     

    I'm getting batteries, because they are moveable.

     

    One could write a movie script; not sure batteries have ever saved the planet before.

     

    No...I'm not going there!
    20 Feb 2012, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Thanks for the links. Traveling today and was only able to make it through first one, but at top of my reading list for today.
    20 Feb 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Great links,

     

    When I read things like "20,000 smart meters at each location" will be installed by the Navy. I start to understand the size and scope of the smart grid. The scope is mind boggling. So if only one PowerCube is at each military installation? What about civilian installations? Well, you know how back of the napkin calculations go.

     

    I am curious but did anyone have time to check out these links listed in one of the Navy articles?

     

    A short video on the SmartGrid Pilot is available at the Navy’s Task Force Energy Facebook page at http://on.fb.me/wtrifZ or on YouTube at http:// http://bit.ly/wzx17R.

     

    To learn more about the Department of the Navy’s Energy initiatives, visit the Task Force Energy website at http://greenfleet.dodli ve.mil/home

     

    For information on NDW energy programs, visit NDW’s Facebook page at http://on.fb.me/xzomq5 40800.

     

    BTW: I was wondering who manufactures that smart meter for the Navy? It sort of indicated they invented the software but someone is making the hardware.
    20 Feb 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    This Forbes blog adds a lot of color to the impetus behind the military's decision making. – http://onforb.es/xZgqcM
    20 Feb 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    didn't it say Nexus?
    20 Feb 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    "Arista Power (ASPW), which delivered last year to the U.S. Army’s Proving Ground in Maryland for testing a prototype mobile version of its “Renewable Power Station” that utilizes wind turbines, solar panels, and an on-board battery storage system."

     

    Who is Arista Power?
    20 Feb 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Arisrta Power (http://bit.ly/ysbpnv) seems to me is a integrator of wind and solar power solution. I am curious to know what kind of battery they are using for energy storage....
    20 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    They are suing Ultralife: http://bit.ly/z0MWE8

     

    It would appear that they might have been looking for a partner for the battery part of their POD systems. I scanned their various releases, and they are extremely vague as to what sort of battery they use.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In this article we find that much of the management at Arista used to work for Ultralife, so the attempt to ally with Ultralife (and the resulting lawsuit) has a deeper dimension.

     

    "Custom designed storage system" is all the detail they routinely present as to how they are storing energy. I will dig some more, looking at older news, to see if they had more detailed information in the earlier days prior to the lawsuit.
    20 Feb 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the links....I too will search more later today. One note on the lawsuit, $60m doesn't sound like very much for someone who stole your technology.
    20 Feb 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    “It shall be the goal of the Department of Defense… to produce or procure not less than 25% of the total quantity ... from renewable energy sources.”
    A year ago, the Defense Department invited a number of private-sector companies to demonstrate renewable energy technologies. A small number of them submitted products and were selected for further testing."

     

    John...informative link.
    Observations:

     

    AXPW HAS to penetrate the DOD/Navy et al.

     

    There HAS to be some turning point/awareness...anno... to turn the corner and get the exposure AXPW needs and show it can deliver.

     

    Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Johnson Controls, Siemens...good companies, but as in biotech, it's the smaller companies that breed the real breakthroughs...disrup... technologies

     

    A "small number" submitted...that says a lot!

     

    Wind...solar...wind...... magic "potion'...where's the storage?

     

    I know...I know...preaching the the choir!
    Just venting!
    20 Feb 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "Arisrta Power (http://bit.ly/ysbpnv) seems to me is a integrator of wind and solar power solution. I am curious to know what kind of battery they are using for energy storage...."

     

    I hope they use the most economical for the solution they provide. Their lawsuit with Ultralife was over a mobile genset replacement which is where the big savings are. The cost of fuel on deployment is huge. In that case I suspect it is some version of Li-Ion.

     

    Now we all know that if size and weight is not an issue, then the PbC is the right choice. My hope is that their term "custom-designed battery storage system" means just that...
    20 Feb 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    They're also more than a little bit overvalued. According to their last Form 10-Q, Arista had $871,000 in cash, $578,000 in working capital, $839,000 in stockholders equity and $454,000 in sales to support a $31.8 million market capitalization.

     

    It's not a stock I'd want to hold.
    20 Feb 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Great stuff Tim. 8-)
    20 Feb 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Ran into this old Sandia report today that has some work from Ed Buiel. I had not seen it before, sorry if its already been posted.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ac9sGQ
    19 Feb 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    An oldie but goodie. Also good contact information at the report's end for those who want to (and are qualified to) engage in high level technical discussions.
    19 Feb 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    The intriguing thing about this report (given the fact that it's a few years old) is how it suggests that apparently for some reason PbC was their "first choice" among promising solutions to evaluate, but due to various immaturities, they weren't able to get their hands on suitable prototypes and thus evidently concluded that PbC technology was still too far out in development to be considered a viable or available solution. There does appear to be a tone of disappointment to that conclusion. But that was then. And this is now. And as we know, PbC is a lot further down the road. Perhaps all the unique potential and promise that warranted their initial consideration then, being largely fulfilled now, might induce a revisiting of their investigation. If that be the case, what a difference a few years should make...
    21 Feb 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Too all: rather than add repeated "Thank yous" for each link, just be aware that I have read all and appreciate the links provided.

     

    I also had not realized the extent of the military involvement in improving energy usage.

     

    Thanks to all!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    I like this paragraph so much that I have to copy it here. It's from JP's reference "U.S. Defense Contractors Are Hidden Investment Plays in Renewable Energy Initiatives".

     

    “Any renewable energy company that has the ability to develop and deliver a workable technology to address a specific military application could quickly find itself on a sudden and rapid-growth trajectory, not only because of the potential sales to the military but also because of the benefits that would accrue to that company’s business,” says investment consultant Charles LaLoggia, a former publisher and editor of a newsletter on investing opportunities.

     

    The best news is that we do have something to offer and that they are actually looking at it as we speak :o)))
    20 Feb 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    It appears they have done quite a bit of work when it comes to controlling and monitoring usage (SmartGrid) and the NetZero demonstration at the visitors center could be the model for the layering of Alt-Energy into the Naval SmartGrid. SilTek is the contractor for the pilot project and I suspect their Energy Division SandEnergy might actually be doing the work.

     

    Whatever happens at NDW is likely to be replicated to every Naval Base. And as stated above, they hope to complete the pilot project this month. I could sure use some good news...
    20 Feb 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1399) | Send Message
     
    "The project is underwritten by the US Navy, and the purchase order calls for Axion's work to begin in January with the full 36 PbC battery mini-PowerCube system to be completed in the first quarter of 2012."

     

    That's all I have seen on the completion date. Where did you see that the project will be completed in Feb? Thanks.
    20 Feb 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "A NetZero installation is one that produces as much energy as it uses over the period of a given year which equals to the installation's energy demand. The goal is to have a facility that demonstrates this capability. And by February 2012, NDW hopes to complete the NetZero pilot demonstration project to meet the Navy's energy goal of increasing alternative energy ashore by achieving net-zero energy use in 50 percent of Navy installations by 2020."

     

    The NDW Path to NetZero article. There is even a picture of the visitors center. It's a pretty small building.

     

    http://bit.ly/xYStrK
    20 Feb 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Check this out:"Alternative Power Sources Sought for Remote Bases"
    http://bit.ly/y7TQyT

     

    There is obviously a lot of DOD business in both fixed and mobile renewable energy and energy storage. One thing to keep in mind is anytime you say "remote" lightweight becomes important.
    20 Feb 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    Your post piqued my curiosity and my follow up research indicates that a .5 MW version of the PC would just fit into a C-130. I'm thinking the weight would be okay - on the .5 MW version - as normal payload is 36,000 lbs. Used Rosewater as source for measurements of PC.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    A CH-53E (perhaps) or certainly the new CH-53K (IOC in 2018) should be able to external it as well...
    21 Feb 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Keep in mind our military wants to get away from anything using oil. We do not want to be handcuffed by the middle east and high pricing if possible.

     

    My first thought about the Naval yard installation was this may be a test run for us!!! Just keeping it low keyed..

     

    Keeping fingers crossed !!!

     

    I might add imho our country might want to stay away from any possible foreign countries interest when they do decide what method fits them best..MADE IN THE USA might actually mean something here...
    20 Feb 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    MAP: there's another significant impetus to get away from oil dependency.

     

    In the theater of operations the logistics to provide fuel is *very* expensive and *very* vulnerable to disruption. To offset the vulnerability a large expense in manpower, armaments and even fuel is incurred.

     

    They have a lot going on in that area trying to adapt solar, wind, ... and any other apparently feasible renewable energy area to help. They've also started doing a lot with energy efficiency for base facilities, such as increasing insulation on tents, having dedicated more-efficient A/C, etc.

     

    So there's a wide-open set of possibilities also outside of the states.

     

    Let's hope that some decent percentage of them come AXPW's way.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Greetings, all - it's been many concentrators since I last posted, but I've been reading along and have appreciated the good work done by all.
    I found an Exide document I don't think has been posted here yet: "Lead acid batteries in micro hybrid and
    Hybrid Electrical Vehicle applications," dated Jan. 21, 2011.
    The more interesting part is the section on their attempts at blended carbon-lead-acid technology (pp. 12, 13-18).
    http://bit.ly/A66IBp
    20 Feb 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    A couple of their diagrams sure look similar to the PbC arrangement and materials.. I wonder if I'm reading that wrong.

     

    On one, it looks like they've spilt the electrode to have both carbon and lead. I guess that's different from AXPW's.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    It's clear that Exide knows that Lead Carbon has a big part to play in the future of automotive batteries.

     

    But it looks like they are trying their G-damnedest to use as much carbon in the negative electrode without violating Axion's patent and having to pay Axion.

     

    In a way it's a good thing because it is total validation of the Lead Carbon technology that Axion has patented.

     

    And even if Exide never intends to have 'Axion Inside (TM)', there HAS to be some competitor in this market that will.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Pretty soon I believe it will become important for Axion to hire some good lawyers and start to police their patents...
    20 Feb 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    i am pretty sure on slide 14 ,,, that may be carbon paste, not a true PbC.

     

    No doubt about the PbC having a future, Exide is trying very hard to develop an entire line of PbC for different uses and cover 3/4 of the auto market in the process. I imagine now we know also what all the new plants are going to be geared for.
    WE can FORGET a partnership with Exide now.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4602) | Send Message
     
    Patents : there has never been any doubt in my mind that patents will either make or break AXPW. Competition will try every attempt to build a PbC in house before ever licensing our product.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    LT: Maybe for now, but ...

     

    Presuming their solution still falls short of the mark and a major auto maker says we want PbC ...

     

    Exide is still making in the AGM format and their version of the negative electrode could be easily supplanted by the Axion version in the manufacturing process.

     

    But I do think it will take a mandate from a big user to cause it and I don't know how likely that is.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    I think I remember from discussions at the end of last year that the most likely way Exide would use Axion's PbC is for the customer to specify it. For instance, if BMW contracts with Exide to make their batteries and requires them to use Axion's negative Carbon electrode.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I am not to concerned with a presentation that does not show the DCA of the new battery or its life cycles.
    Looks like bluster to me. When they publish a white paper I will be more concerned.
    Remember, there is no silver bullet. The PbC will have competition.
    But I still bet the best product will find a market.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    One thing in Axion's favour:

     

    I find it very unlikely that BMW or any other automaker would go through 3+ years of testing the PbC and then decide to go with a 'PbC-like substitute'.

     

    And one more thing: notice no mention of cycle life in the Exide presentation? Just kinda skipped over that one, didn't they?

     

    If the battery still had lead in the negative electrode then it will still deteriorate like a regular lead-acid and cannot approach anywhere near the cycle-life of the genuine PbC.

     

    D
    20 Feb 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1399) | Send Message
     
    Not to mention a multi year head start. Whatever new technology comes will also have to undergo the years of testing we endure. If PbC is good enough there will be much less reason to test new products. Hope I'm not putting on blinders, but I personally am not putting much concern into new technologies just out of the lab. We'll have our day long before it matters.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Looks like they are just adding carbon to the lead paste to me. If that is true BMW said that AGM with carbon added to the lead paste still didn't cut it for stop start IIRC. JP's the way back machine for that impression, especially since he went to Istanbul to see the Axion-BMW joint presentation first hand.

     

    If and when Axion teams with a major LA battery manufacturer to produce millions of PbC batteries then the really big fangs will come out on the IP rights.
    20 Feb 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I note the presentation was originally done in 2010, given the "NOW" label on the left end of the horizontal axis of the last "graph" on pg 18.

     

    Never do they mention ANY numbers relating to cycle life at partial SOC. They said it was important, but nothing else.
    These are sales documents and should be taken as such. They say what they think the customer wants to hear and ignore the rest.

     

    On pg 14 they were straining to infer, with graphics, that a mixed lead-carbon negative electrode combined with a PbO2 positive plate was equal to the combination of a standard lead-lead battery and an asymmetrical lead-carbon capacitor, like the PbC.
    Of course, it isn't. Including lead in electrical contact with the carbon in a negative plate produces something completely different than having a 100% activated carbon negative plate- the PbC design.
    The biggest difference is that the lead can form lead sulfate and disable the battery in partial SOC situations just like it does with a standard flooded or AGM LA battery. There will be some difference, but it isn't even close to a PbC.

     

    Every time I read one of these "next generation battery" marketing pieces I am amused by what they don't say more than informed by what they DO say.
    They simply do not have a competing product.
    20 Feb 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    But look at slide 13, it has East Penn's Ultrabattery shown right below what looks a lot like our PbC? It say "Asymmetrical capacitor" for the negative electrode and the "PbC" is a "Multi-celled asymmetrically supercapacitive lead-acid-carbon hybrid battery". Makes me wonder. 8-)
    20 Feb 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3882) | Send Message
     
    HTL > "... it looks like they've spilt the electrode to have both carbon and lead."

     

    IINM, that is the same configuration employed in the "Ultrabattery."
    20 Feb 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "On one, it looks like they've spilt the electrode to have both carbon and lead. I guess that's different from AXPW's."

     

    That would be the Ultrabattery (I think)...
    20 Feb 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Something to ask TG at the conf call, me thinks.
    20 Feb 2012, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    The Exide presentation shows three battery configurations on the right hand side of slide 13. AGM is on the upper left. The PbC is on the upper right and the Ultrabattery is on the bottom.

     

    Exide is focusing on additives because they improve battery performance, they're cheaper and easier to implement than the PbC and they don't give rise to patent problems.

     

    They also don't work as well.

     

    In their 2010 ELBC presentation – http://bit.ly/oIU19K – Axion and BMW showed DCA testing results for VRLA (slide 13), VRLA with conductive carbon additives (slide 14), VRLA with high surface area carbon additives (slide 15) and the PbC (slide 21).

     

    The automotive markets are as competitive as they can be and every cent of cost matters. With the PbC charge recovery time stayed stable at 30 seconds. With the best carbon additives (slide 14) charge recovery time started at 30 seconds and increased to 80 seconds within 10,000 cycles (kilometers).

     

    The tension is going to be in the trade-off between performance and cost. My current thinking is that the PbC will be the battery of choice in heavy micro-hybrids and compromise solutions like carbon additives will get traction in the middle ground of medium micro-hybrids. Over time, as the PbC moves down the learning curve and economies of scale develop (hopefully), the cost differential between the PbC and AGM will get smaller and the PbC will get more competitive.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    A super insulated tent with integrated flexible thin film solar generation and organic electrical storage/LED lighting/ HVAC would be winner.
    20 Feb 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    481086,
    Why does this conjure up visions of a 1950's sci fy movie?

     

    Inside the tent sits a robot that can take over the world.
    and what the heck is organic storage? Electricity stored in some cabbage?

     

    And where can I buy the stock?
    20 Feb 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    481086: Where did THAT comment come from? :-)

     

    Although I do like the sound of it. That would be quite the product for "getting back to the land".
    20 Feb 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    In this instance I simply meant organic in the military sense--as in "organic to"....like an internal organ...in other words that each tent would have its own storage---something scaled along the lines of the residential product that TG has mentioned. Not to worry, no granola connotation intended... ;)
    21 Feb 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Tripleblack> You asked me to tell you where I would be lurking next. Think I'll try .37 for a while. Who knows? 2 cent premium over a bunch of people with bigger checkbooks than mine.
    20 Feb 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good, bangwhiz. And its a healthy way to view the accomplishment, imo.
    20 Feb 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I did some digging into federal (including military) procurements on the Federal Business Opportunities website https://www.fbo.gov that catalogs all bid and proposal opportunities. I searched new opps released the last 90 days with the term "renewable AND battery" and found some interesting hits:

     

    1. Marine Corps Systems Command has a requirement for a renewable energy system entitled Solar Portable Alternative Communications Energy Systems (SPACES). The Government may award multiple contracts for the procurement of ten (10) Solar Portable Adaptor-Generation II (SPA II). This system is planned to be used by various USMC communities in rugged and austere environments to power radios, computers, and charge multiple batteries. This contract will be a Firm Fixed Price (FFP), ID/IQ type contract for up to 5000 units over 5 years.

     

    2. Electrochemical Based Portable Power Sources. Proposals are sought that will advance the development of components and devices of electrochemical based power sources, such as, Rechargeable and Primary Batteries, and Ultracapacitor. These new, or improved, portable power sources will enhance Soldiers capabilities and survivability.

     

    3. (National Park Service) Through technological advances, various companies now produce state-of-art photovoltaic systems that are portable. The solar panels are mounted on the roof of an enclosed trailer that houses the battery bank; all switch gear, DC/AC inverter and a high efficiency backup propane generator. This application would be ideal for the Bechler Ranger Station, as the trailer would be moved out of the area during the winter months and used in different areas of the park where winters are not as severe. It is anticipated that the trailer unit will provide over 80% renewable energy for the Bechler complex."

     

    4. (FAA) 1000 lead acid batteries for power back up systems for runway lighting, etc. Supporting documentation to establish that the proposed battery meets the battery life expectancy requirement as stated in FAA-E-2826 Section 4.3.22; e.g. data from life tests of SAE J240 or SAE J2185. As noted in the salient characteristics, the requirement for the battery life cycle expectancy (Years of Use) has been changed from 20 years to 10 years for this solicitation.

     

    And, yes 481086, they are looking into something like you described. Some sort of quick forward base housing units for 20 personnel that contain just about everything (water, sewage, lights, HVAC, electric, etc) needed for a firebase or other remote location. Probably hook together modules. However, what I saw in documentaries from Afganistan were tons of dirt on top of everything for incoming mortar rounds.

     

    The lead acid solicitation for FAA was amended 5 times and then ultimately cancelled. That's typical of dealing with the government at times. Zillion man hours spent on the bid down the toilet. 20 year lead acid battery life????
    20 Feb 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    The link to FAA was an apparent stock symbol that matched the abbreviation I used for the Federal Aviation Administration. I tried to edit it but couldn't for some strange reason.

     

    Partly behind all this mobile energy push I suspect is all those fuel trucks hauling diesel into Afganistan from Pakistan getting blown away by the Taliban numerous times. When four star generals start screaming that someone solve a problem stuff happens a lot faster.
    20 Feb 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Interesting digging ...
    20 Feb 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9582) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Next Concentrator this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Feb 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
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