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Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 70: Beginning Feb. 22, 2012 214 comments
    Feb 22, 2012 9:10 PM

    During the past seven months the Axion Power Concentrators have organically grown into a vast trove of information all things Axion Power related, all things battery related, all things Energy Storage Sector related.

    Between now and 15 years from now, the global expenditure on energy in every way energy is created, delivered, conserved and used will be in the trillions of dollars.

    Derived from well over 11,000 Axion Power Concentrator comments comes to us a compendium archive created by APC commenter bangwhiz. In short here is what it is, and does:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Site sites.google.com/site/axionpowersharehol.../ is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    It also contains a "New to Axion" section for people who are new to Axion and want a good starting point for their own due diligence. The site is updated daily as new links are posted to current comment threads. Links are posted by topic and can also be found using the "Search This Site" tab.

    The Comment Search Feature on the homepage is great for finding a comment you want to read again that would normally be lost in all the thousands of past comments. Simply search using a good key word or phrase, or any Google search term modifier, such as AND etc.

    New Feature: You can now search all past comments or just the past 3 months.

    Complimenting the Axion Power Concentrator Web Site is the Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, "A repository of information about Axion Power International, Inc. and PbC® battery technology." APC commenter WDD has created an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts:

    http://axionpower.wikispaces.com/

    Want to ask, or have someone ask, Axion Power leadership a question during the forthcoming late March 2012 conference call? The following link led by bangwhiz is where you can write your question, maybe have it discussed and expanded upon before the conference call.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/667879-bangwhiz/279411-axion-power-2011-q4-march-conference-call-questions-list?source=kizur

    ####

    This is as troll free zone. All disruptive comments will be removed.

Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (214)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from HardToLove:

     

    Just a quick EOD note: volume down 44.5%, short sales down 58.3%.

     

    Interesting is that short sales were 4,900 less than "buys" (43,000). This *suggests* that all trades at, or very near, the ask, were market-maker short sales *except* for these few shares.

     

    It turns out there is a nicely grouped three-trade set of 4,700, 100 and 100 that went for $0.3999 each at 15:35:30 through 15:48:39. In case I failed to mention it, this is the price most commonly seen as the market-maker (I think) attempted to drum up business with 100 share "buys".

     

    The day's volume was "saved" by 2x25K trades, "sells", at $0.40 at 15:58.

     

    Without those trades and 100 more shares at 15:58, we had 43 trades with an average size of ~2,528 shares per trade.

     

    This very low. Of these, 12 were 100 share "buys", all $0.3999 but for one at $0.405 (the first one - the market-maker gave up quickly on that).

     

    Anyway, with the attitudinal 3 trades, we ended with 46 and an average of ~3,452 - pretty much near "normal" recently.

     

    The good news is that all this combined means there were not a lot of sell orders coming in at low prices. And no excessive long positions in the market-maker portfolios or shares flowing in (yet?) from prior sell orders.

     

    I'll post the usual in the morning, but I wanted to get this out there as it *suggests* there's a possibility that the $0.39 is the low for now (two days in a row).

     

    Of course, there's lots of "maybe", "might" etc. that BW noted, including that the trend lines say "it ain't so".

     

    But it's *way* too early to assign any weight to the new trend lines, especially with the bottom holding, buy:sell *tending* towards improvement and short-sales acting the way they are ... so far.

     

    And *one* oscillator has started to curl up.

     

    I *might* have to move my trading block replacement price up a notch.

     

    I'll post in the A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In a stock with limited liquidity like Axion, I think it's more likely that a market maker started the day with a 50,000 share buy order in hand at $0.40, and he spent the entire day trying to buy enough shares in the $0.39s to fill the order. In my experience market makers take very few risks with volatile OTC stocks – meaning that they're loathe to go long unless they have a buy order in hand at a fixed price and they're loathe to go short unless they have a sell order in hand at a fixed price. The game gets different for Nasdaq and exchange traded stocks, but there isn't much market maker gambling at the OTC level.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >HTL & JP ... That "No Gambling" attitude on the part of the MM is probably near the top of my list of reasons I'd like to see AXPW listed. All this talk of trading blocks, short seller (people have got to be kidding), and scalping for 20-40% gains is not really possible with the liquidity the market is willing to lend the stock. It's going to either be a stampede sometime between $0.60 to $1.00 with a crash or some very skilled traders. I'm curious to watch.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My fondest hope is that the bulk of the float has been bought up by bottom feeders who will take as long with their exit decisions as they did with their entry decisions. Like you I expect significant volatility as Axion begins to move out of the valley of death because so many shares traded at unreasonably low prices. Mercifully it looks like the buyers numbered in the thousands while there were only a handful of sellers and differences in the buyer's investment horizons and goals should help smooth things out a bit.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Everyone knows my stance. My hands are super-glued to the stick and throttle. There ain't no abort. I'm riding this bird till it's either airborne or balled up and flaming at the end of the runway.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The problem with that analogy, of course, is that airborne means different things to different people. Orville and Wilbur were airborne at 20 feet over the sands of Kitty Hawk. Chuck Yeager had a different view.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Airborne means aloft. Which persists until you hit something. I'll persist until something hits me. ;)
    23 Feb 2012, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    I didn't know we'd get copied over here, so I replied over there. To avoid repetition, ...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    Normally I think trading gains are way better than any tax savings, but with a potential multi-bagger the long term rate is more worthwhile :)
    23 Feb 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    ...and the length of that first flight was shorter than the wingspan of a 747!
    25 Feb 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please note in the above header that bangwhiz has improved the Search Feature in his linked Google website to now being able to narrow the search time frame to only the past three months of the Axion Power Concentrators.

     

    Thumbs upping the APCs always appreciated! Thanks.
    22 Feb 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The quietness for the past few hours curiously and tangentially on several fronts reminds me of the novel, "All Quiet On The Western Front," by Erich Maria Remarque.

     

    ####

     

    As I understand from my soon-to-be on Iron Chef pal, the Fisker rides around with solar cells its roof. Think the CEO of Tesla is private jetting right now to have a sit with the CEO of Fisker Automotive?
    23 Feb 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Toyota offers an option on its hybrids for solar panels on the roof that run a small fan meant to stir the interior air. If it is capable of also recharging the battery pack, I would be astonished. As for the Tesla, if just having a "too long" extension cord means turning your exotic roadster into a brick, I doubt throwing a few solar panels on the car (its a roadster, so the opportunity on the roof would be problematical) would do the trick.

     

    If they did it, though, a la Toyota, it might be funny to report one day that Tesla bricks were taped being scraped off driveways on sunny days with their interior fans merrily spinning away.
    23 Feb 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    TB, you are right, it would not be able to charge the pack but it could feed help feed the phantom loss and extend the "time to brick" period.

     

    This assumes it is outside and would only help during periods of sunshine. We could add a wind turbine for after dusk...
    23 Feb 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    There hasn't been much said on the job opening that bang mentioned finding listed on Axions site....
    I find it hard to believe that TG is filling top management spots without business on the horizon to pay for it.
    With all the clean energy bankruptcies....he should be able to scalp talent on the cheap.
    First quarter coming to an end, I would expect some news of a sale soon, it's been too quiet with Rosewater, Viridity, etc...
    23 Feb 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    I agree. As mentioned earlier, military would be a good possibility I think. Maybe too early though. Hard to say. But, IMO, when the chose the PbC for the NZEB, they did their homework and were thinking about other applications where they either would not have ready access to power, needed B/U power and/or wanted very low detectability. I'm feeling optimistic.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    From what I have read, I expect that the Navy building was one of maybe 3-4 different technologies the military is installing and trying, I don't think we have an exclusive there yet, but it is very promising, and as with Viridity and the PC working at Axion's plant, it's up to the PbC to prove itself now.
    This is what we desperately need now tho, just more "working" installations to prove itself. AONE is NOT selling theirs either, they are installing them and "leasing/renting" them and the rent payments are in the form of energy saved or resold at higher prices in order to get them into the market.
    At the least, the PbC is no longer just a concept, there are working models. We could see mfg. cost savings with new lines & power of scale..but the product is basically ready. Just get it out there and let it work.
    25 Feb 2012, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. Provided the PbC performs well at the NZEB, and I don't think we have any reason to believe that it won't, that means that the Navy will be gathering their own performance data, just as BMW and NS have been doing. If I'm not mistaken, that data will be freely shared among all branches of DOD and that makes success at NZEB an exponential momentum booster. Even prior to tested success, the fact that the Navy has done DD and selected the PbC as a technology to consider, increases the odds that other branches and pilot projects will do the same. That could be starting at any time I would think. There again, those may be smaller initial orders, but the more PRs that are out there stating that one more well respected source is testing the PbC, the more momentum builds. Momentum is key!

     

    BW's example of remote missile installations is one great example. When you think of the US Armed Forces in its entirety, think about how many "off grid" installations/missions they have that could potentially use something like the Powercube. The potential is enormous, although not likely very fast paced.
    25 Feb 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >eggwis & Others ... Just an FYI. The data collected from NZEB should be public information and available under FOIA, but who knows what secrets may lay within those batteries. It would be (probably) the first actual field data any of us might ever get a chance to see.
    25 Feb 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Actually, I wonder about how much faith to put into the Navy's Zero Emissions Building project.

     

    2 of the great advantages of PbC are price and cycle life.

     

    1) Will the Navy have time to fully appreciate the cycle life superiority before it makes its decision which technology to implement in additional buildings?

     

    2) Given the size of the Navy's budget, is price that important to them?

     

    D
    25 Feb 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Trust me, price is very important. The beancounter blessing is going to be key to any decision. Budgets are extremely tight right now in the Navy. Fuel and food costs rise for them too. Shipbuilding is hideously expensive, and never forget ships are all depreciating assets. Fleet numbers are already in a big hole. Personnel costs go ever in only one direction. So much is programmed in that is inflexible. Throw in a highly troubled system like Littoral Combat Ship and it all adds up to a big multi-year squeeze. In short, everyone is fighting for dollars, and the knives will be out a long time for any program that can't justify itself...
    25 Feb 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I hope you're right, 48.

     

    I feel 100% confident that the PbC is the best tool for that particular job.

     

    I would hate to see the US Navy bowing to political pressure to use lithium ion because the administration knows that ignorant voters think lithium ion is sexy.

     

    I really hope that with enough stories of bricked Teslas and flaming Volts that lithium ion loses its aura of superiority for all purposes in the public eye.

     

    D
    26 Feb 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The lithium halo was carefully built over a number of years by a well conceived and flawlessly executed PR program that stoked popular misconceptions with impossible promises. It all goes back to my favorite Edison quotes:

     

    “The storage battery is one of those peculiar things which appeals to the imagination, and no more perfect thing could be desired by stock swindlers than that very selfsame thing.”

     

    “Just as soon as a man gets working on the secondary battery it brings out his latent capacity for lying.”

     

    If it was just the battery manufacturers who were telling stories the mythology would have unraveled faster. The party didn't really get rolling, however, until electric drive advocates joined the chorus and started telling lies on behalf of the lithium-ion battery manufacturers.

     

    The chinks in the armor are starting to show. The promised cost reductions and performance gains aren't happening. People like Dr. Chu are starting to say things like "[y]ou need about five as a minimum, but really six- or seven-times higher storage capacity and you need to bring the price down by about a factor of three," knowing full well that lithium-ion battery technology can never reach those targets.

     

    Two of the most interesting events of the last year are (1) the DOE's latest solicitation for a $120 million battery innovation hub to conduct R&D for new battery technologies beyond lithium-ion – http://1.usa.gov/zwIQCi, and (2) the President's apparent embrace of natural gas in the State of the Union. While I tend to question the President's embrace because it's so far out of synch with the longstanding party line, we do seem to be living in a world where anything can happen.

     

    If you watch the life-cycle of panacea energy solutions in Washington DC they seem to rise to prominence and then decline to obscurity over a cycle of five to six years. This electric drive with lithium-ion battery mythology is about four years old and most of the shiny new factories now have been built. When those factories start reporting their losses and the expected market demand for their gee-whiz products doesn't materialize the rose will start smelling a bit funky and the political class will move on to something else.
    26 Feb 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    JP: "and (2) the President's apparent embrace of natural gas in the State of the Union. While I tend to question the President's embrace because it's so far out of synch with the longstanding party line, we do seem to be living in a world where anything can happen"

     

    I think it's just a politician taking advantage of the train apparently getting ready to leave the station.

     

    Back when I was doing some NG articles, I made some comments suggesting that private investment in response to demand, first from the trucking industry, would drive a move to increased NG infrastructure and use. As (CLNE), and some smaller folks, have continued their expansion I believe this is occurring.

     

    The POTUS can jump on-board, after the fact, and claim credit for finally getting it all started and helping to reduce the foreign-oil dependency. And he'll claim credit for the fact that *he* did it with relatively little taxpayer funding even though the credit for that really belongs to the private capital that invested very early-on.

     

    Getting a more widespread support to get re-elected is *far* more important to him, IMO, than some support from a small(?) segment of his base.

     

    It's still a long way off for private passenger vehicle adoption to really take off, IMO, and may be delayed further as the NG E & P folks are finally showing some restraint as rig counts drop dramatically from their peaks, per the latest Baker-Hughes rig counts. And there's been rumors for a while that wells are being shut-in for now and we know many big players are switching to liquids

     

    We also had some reductions in the estimated years of reserves, but I don't know how much reliance we can give those estimates. As/if prices recover to more reasonable levels, economic reserves should increase and the drilling technology is moving forward *again* to increase production substantially (think Gasfrac and the mechanicals of drilling itself).

     

    Anyway, I think NG price will *slowly* start to pick up, possibly reducing conversion attractiveness. But as something nearer a balance is achieved, it may still work out that we see much more appropriate use of NG, or a derivative of it, in the transportation area.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Feb 2012, 06:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If third hand rumors of gossip from the Houston Petroleum Club count for anything, we should look for natural gas prices to continue to fall. Hydraulic fracturing has opened up a whole new world of domestic oil and gas resources and what we've seen so far looks to be mere prelude to the big show.
    27 Feb 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I'm sure the HPC knows better than I. As HTL stated, new NG exploration has all but halted, with the E&Ps stacking as many as 50% of the rigs they had drilling last year. I know that is true in the Marcellus where they're only drilling what's necessary to maintain leaseholds, and many of those wells will remain "shut-in", as most currently have no pipeline even relatively close. Also, many E&Ps operating elsewhere have cut 2012 capex by as much as 50%. I read somewhere recently that most of them have a break even in the $2.30 - $2.50 range on horizontal/fraced wells.

     

    However, with a number of the major producers already having throttled back production, more power plants switching to NG and seasonal demand picking up again in the fall, I'm anticipating that prices will begin rising slowly by early Q4. Also, I expect Asian (Japan and India) demand to increase and, ISTM, that there is a growing critical mass driving the development of NG infrastructure, via private capital, that should be sufficient to play a part in increasing demand in the relatively near future.
    27 Feb 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I don't see how Nat gas goes much lower....just a few weeks ago before production cuts Nat gas was approx. $2 even...down from a high of $8-12....I don't see it going to zero...I don't see it staying at $2 either. Higher is the trend for whatever the reason, and production cuts and less drilling is a good enough reason...Overseas may or may not drop, as they are paying very high rates already, that's why we are building pipelines to ports to export it and take advantage of pricing. Soon as these exports come online, the price in the USA comes to some sort of parity less shipping.
    27 Feb 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I have a modest interest in a small company that is conducting a feasibility study for a gas to liquids plant in Houston. They already own the proposed site and have direct tap access to the interstate high pressure pipeline system and the high-voltage electric grid. Natural gas prices are the least of their concerns because there are plenty of sellers willing to enter into long-term fixed price contracts. That dynamic would not exist if the things you see as game changers were likely to have a significant impact.
    27 Feb 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    GTL FTW!!!
    27 Feb 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Totally new and unrelated topic for those bored watching Axion stock just sit there:

     

    Wife is thinking it might be time to trade vehicles. Her little roadster doesn't feel as safe, to her, as it did a few years ago. Since she has to make a few longer road trips on the highway, for her work, I can understand.

     

    But apparently waiting for an Axion powered vehicle might not be in the cards. So, the other day I went shopping (looking). Toyota Camry hybrid and the Hyundai/Kia Hybrid are nice cars ( $28,000) but don't hold a candle to the Toyota Prius ($25,000) for gas mileage ( 50 mpg) or price. The new Prius V is a much larger vehicle but adds 5 thousand dollars and loses 10 mpg.

     

    The Chevy Volt ($40,000) before incentives was similar inside to the Prius. The salesman was nice enough to tell me about a lady that drove hers 60 miles without the gas engine kicking in. I told him I was amazed since the range of the battery wasn't but 1/2 that amount.

     

    Since this is totally off topic, was curious what vehicles others would recommend. She wants to sit up higher than her sports car. I want great gas mileage. She drives about 12,000 miles per year.
    I am tall so little cars like the Versa, ect are out.

     

    I doubt I would ever pay over $25,000 for a car. I am car knowledgeable and have no particular brand preference over another. To me it is a $ v. gas mileage v. style and comfort sort of decision.
    23 Feb 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I really like the Sonata that Rick mentioned....the Prius is just too small for me.
    23 Feb 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    There are loads of ICE cars getting over 40mpg now. This year it looks like "they are all doing it". And for prices considerably below the hybrid herd.

     

    I know that many of the companies offer small diesels that get stunning mileage (over 70mpg and more) in Europe, and are now selling similar models here, but I am not sure that their diesel lineup is included in the model introductions on this side of the Atlantic. An episode of Top Gear famously featured a diesel version Jaguar XJ that beat the smaller, higher mileage competition (it had a huge fuel tank, and the idea was to drive all the way across Europe on one tank of fuel) getting about 50mpg despite the best efforts of the driver to sabotage the process.

     

    I recall reading that Ford, VW and GM were all considering adding the ultra thrifty diesels to the North American list...
    23 Feb 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, you might look over the offerings for VW and their TDI line. As I recall they get 42mpg city, 49mpg highway (though the new standards are tougher, so the numbers might be lower now). Jettas start at about $16k, but VW is prone to charging a lot for options...
    23 Feb 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    VW is selling their diesel Jetta and Golf in the US and while many of us have less than fond memories of old fashioned diesel, the new ones that I've had the opportunity to drive on a couple of occasions are amazing performers. If you want to move upmarket a bit BMW, Audit and Mercedes all have diesels available in the States. You probably owe it to yourself to at least take a test drive.
    23 Feb 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    I have been looking for a used TDI Wagon and have been stumped. They are in a lot of demand and 2 or 3 year old models are basically selling for new sticker, with VW dealers selling new ones for thousands over sticker if they can get them.
    23 Feb 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1285) | Send Message
     
    drove the a4 tdi, great ride.
    23 Feb 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Well, I have on the Sonata. I totaled one air bag and all and I used to work for a auto crash testing firm. Very hard to beat a Sonata for safety and comfort. I've had 2 Hyundai's now past 7 years and zero problems.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    We have a VW Passat TDI Cup. Over 40 on hwy, over 30 in city. Fast and fun. Amazing car.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I have a '99 VW Passat that I bought brand new. Gasoline (premium) 4cyl turbo. 178K miles. At least 10% of those up and down a steep, winding, rough road. Average over life of ~30mpg. Had a couple minor electrical issues, one caused by dealership error during clutch replacement. Utility of car, handling, comfort, internal cargo carrying, commuting, towing (yes) utility trailer, has been outstanding. Overall, this car does everything I've asked and was a good value. It's been paid off for ten years, and that's a beautiful, beautiful thing.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all the comments on suggestions for other autos I should look at. I like the VW TDI cars but have found that they are selling for a premium. Buying one used is almost impossible. At least this isn't something that has to be done overnight.

     

    Appreciate the responses.
    24 Feb 2012, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, we purchased a 2011 Camry for my wife's use after test driving the Ford Fusion, Hyundai Sonata. After lots of positive press about the vehicle, was rather disappointed in the Sonata relative to the Camry's appointments and ride. Fusion was a nice car but to me and the wife the difference between it and the Camry was not worth the price premium. Also looked at Ford Escape, Hyundai Santa Fe, and Toyota small SUV (ran from this one). Came close to buying an Escape.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Surprisingly (to me) the 2012 Chrylser 200 might fit the bill. Large rebate in effect. Also Sonata/Optima, Fusion, various used vehicles and the other usual suspects.
    23 Feb 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/22/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 43,000, 115,786, and 0 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 158,768. Buy:sell at EOD was 1:2.69. Trades were touched in my post from last evening, which is duplicated below (and bracketed so you can skip it). The largest trades of the day were 2 25K @ $0.40 late in the day, 15:58. There was *one* at 10K for $0.3901, one 8,286 at $0.39 and the rest were all smaller and ranged from $0.395 to $0.40.

     

    Note that the only trades above $0.40 were apparently market-maker trades of 100 shares each at $0.405, one in the morning and one at the end of the day. I suspect this last was to show a desired price at the close, in preparation for the next day, as part of the "drum up some business" activity.

     

    0201 Vol 2476749, Sht 0948628 38.30% LHC 0.3800 0.5500 0.4700 b:s 1:1.20
    0202 Vol 0584698, Sht 0181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.4800 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    0203 Vol 1019813, Sht 0235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.4690 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1
    0206 Vol 0392838, Sht 0202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    0207 Vol 0413428, Sht 0094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1
    0208 Vol 0570071, Sht 0115522 20.26% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4500 b:s 1:1.06
    0209 Vol 0335713, Sht 0094570 28.17% LHC 0.4251 0.4600 0.4300 b:s 1:4.76
    0210 Vol 0220029, Sht 0088190 40.08% LHC 0.4220 0.4500 0.4400 b:s 4.01:1
    0213 Vol 0239000, Sht 0105800 44.27% LHC 0.4201 0.4550 0.4392 b:s 1.89:1
    0214 Vol 0102654, Sht 0056004 54.56% LHC 0.4350 0.4400 0.4400 b:s UNKNOW
    0215 Vol 0350513, Sht 0035300 10.07% LHC 0.4200 0.4399 0.4240 b:s 1:3.64
    0216 Vol 0132100, Sht 0006097 04.62% LHC 0.4100 0.4249 0.4200 b:s 15.7:1
    0217 Vol 0486232, Sht 0057485 11.82% LHC 0.4000 0.4250 0.4000 b:s 1:3.94
    0221 Vol 0285865, Sht 0091330 31.95% LHC 0.3900 0.4200 0.4050 b:s 1:1.76
    0222 Vol 0158786, Sht 0038100 23.99% LHC 0.3900 0.4050 0.4050 b:s 1:2.69

     

    === POSTED Last evening START ===
    Just a quick EOD note: volume down 44.5%, short sales down 58.3%.

     

    Interesting is that short sales were 4,900 less than "buys" (43,000). This *suggests* that all trades at, or very near, the ask, were market-maker short sales *except* for these few shares.

     

    It turns out there is a nicely grouped three-trade set of 4,700, 100 and 100 that went for $0.3999 each at 15:35:30 through 15:48:39. In case I failed to mention it, this is the price most commonly seen as the market-maker (I think) attempted to drum up business with 100 share "buys".

     

    The day's volume was "saved" by 2x25K trades, "sells", at $0.40 at 15:58.

     

    Without those trades and 100 more shares at 15:58, we had 43 trades with an average size of ~2,528 shares per trade.

     

    This very low. Of these, 12 were 100 share "buys", all $0.3999 but for one at $0.405 (the first one - the market-maker gave up quickly on that).

     

    Anyway, with the attitudinal 3 trades, we ended with 46 and an average of ~3,452 - pretty much near "normal" recently.

     

    The good news is that all this combined means there were not a lot of sell orders coming in at low prices. And no excessive long positions in the market-maker portfolios or shares flowing in (yet?) from prior sell orders.

     

    I'll post the usual in the morning, but I wanted to get this out there as it *suggests* there's a possibility that the $0.39 is the low for now (two days in a row).

     

    Of course, there's lots of "maybe", "might" etc. that BW noted, including that the trend lines say "it ain't so".

     

    But it's *way* too early to assign any weight to the new trend lines, especially with the bottom holding, buy:sell *tending* towards improvement and short-sales acting the way they are ... so far.

     

    And *one* oscillator has started to curl up.

     

    I *might* have to move my trading block replacement price up a notch.

     

    I'll post in the A.M.
    === POSTED Last evening END ===

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'm glad to see the MM aiming higher in life: 2x100 trades at $0.415. And then someone got 709 at that price.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    What's the over/under on when we hear about the first sale from rosewater?
    23 Feb 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Pike Research has just forecast that the cumulative investment in community and residential energy storage will total $4.2 billion over the next 10 years. – http://bit.ly/yaa7Xf

     

    Pike currently handicaps lithium-ion as the market leader by a modest margin over flow batteries and advanced lead-acid batteries, but also acknowledges that it's way too early to pick a winner.
    23 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    John,
    The Table of Contents does not list PbC in Section 5.2 - Advanced Lead Acid Batteries. Does the report specifically mention PbC?
    23 Feb 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >jlyleluce ... It would be a very hard sell to include a product, like Axion's PbC, that doesn't exist in the marketplace and doesn't have any published testing results. I would be shocked if PbC were anything but a passing mention of what the future might hold.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    That was my thinking when I looked at the Table of Contents, but curious if it gained a mention.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't have a copy of the full report, but I'd be surprised if it discussed the PbC since the technology is poised on the cusp between R&D and product, but has no real history to point to.

     

    It's my understanding that Lux will be issuing a report within a couple weeks and with any luck I'll be able to snag a courtesy copy of that one.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    OT, but I finally got around to reading the tesla brick stories. And to me, their apparent handling of this, stem to stern, is simply astounding. Astoundingly horrible. Tesla isn't Toyota, with large reserves of credibility. If this is how they're going to behave while trying to compete for and retain a fairly high-class clientele, a clientele that is absolutely crucial to their success, they are doomed. And good riddance.

     

    http://jalo.ps/AjhjMx

     

    These emails between the owner and company say a lot: http://jalo.ps/A8C9dn
    23 Feb 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    What I found interesting about the Tesla "brick" story is how quickly it hit the mainstream media. I'm used to reading about this kind of stuff, since I'm invested in Axion, but I had two separate people in our office, taking about the story the same day it came out, who otherwise have no interest in the battery sector or EVs. Talk about a company ruining its reputation very quickly.
    24 Feb 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Trading notes/speculation:

     

    Buying 100 shares at the offer can tell you something about the number of shares at the offer, and possibly hide the "best offer" of level 2, and for that matter "standard quotes."

     

    For example, if the offer was 5000 shares at a price under .50, taking away 100 shares should reduce it to 4900 shares, and suddenly those of us on level II wouldn't see it any longer.

     

    But there seems to be some "offers" that are "endless" in that (to a certain extent) no many how many share you "pick off," it still shows 5000 available.

     

    One possible scenario is that the market maker always adds how ever many shares the one of his customer's offer he needs to show 5000 shares as available to buy.

     

    ======================...
    Speaking of "showing" ... I trade with Fidelity, and I know their market maker is listed as AUTO.

     

    I put a bid in for 2500 shares at .4002 when AUTO was "showing" .4001 as the best bid. I got a partial fill of 2000 shares at .4001!

     

    This surprised me a lot, but I was happy that offering higher than what was showing was filled. I'm not at all sure that would have happened if it had involved 2 different market makers.

     

    My guess is that another Fidelity customer "sold" them to me, but I also don't know if AUTO provides trades for other firms besides Fidelity.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    At least over the last few months, my orders in my TDAmeritrade account have been flowing to AUTO, also.
    23 Feb 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, "AUTO" is the symbol for the NBBO electronic platform. On ETrade, I can select certain markets and the default is "AUTO".

     

    From what I've read, this is one of the mechanisms that helps obtain "best execution" on price.

     

    There are times that when I select "AUTO", my bids/asks show up on ETMM.

     

    This likely because of the insight into the market they have. They pride themselves on having some of the best metrics in the industry - price, speed of execution, etc.

     

    Other times, my order appears on "AUTO". So, when I pick "AUTO" on ETrade, it looks like their software does a quick assessment and decides where to route it.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Taking the "show" further ...
    here's another view/guess of "endless" amounts:

     

    In my case, the showing 6744 shares bid at .4001 didn't change even though I saw my 2000 "purchase" go by at .4001 on "time and sales." This has often confused me a bit, but now I see that if there are other bids the market maker has at higher prices, but not enough (5000 shares) to show "officially" on Level II, then a large number of shares could sell at that price without the number of shares bid changing at all. I don't know if the MM is allowed to "front run" his customers this way, or it has to be other customers.

     

    What really surprised me is that the MM sold me the shares at .4001 instead of my bid of .4002. Gotta think he was required to since the "best presented" bid was .4001.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Testing the other side is a well-worn technique. I suppose we can call it a "ping." My old trading buddy used to do test trades a lot.

     

    Sometimes I feel like ponging back at 'em for entertainment, lol.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    WTB: two things. The market-makers are not required to show all *their* bids/asks at a given price. They have discretion there.

     

    IIRC, they do have to include customer orders in the *presented* quantities, but on exceptions like "all or none" I know they don't always show them.

     

    When you see "standard" sizes, or multiples thereof, it's safe to assume that in *most* cases there's more stacked up behind what you can see.

     

    Remember that in OTC the makers have a lot of leeway.

     

    Second, if your broker is working in your best interests, he may route your order to a market that is offering a better price which has not yet "presented" *or* may have a match (appear) in-house.

     

    In that case they should fill you at the best available price which may not have been presented yet.

     

    I can't say how often that happens, but I've also been the beneficiary of such.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    "When you see "standard" sizes, or multiples thereof, it's safe to assume that in *most* cases there's more stacked up behind what you can see."

     

    That's why my old bud used to disguise some of his orders with non-rounded numbers, e.g., 6,244 shares. Other times he used to say that could be counter-productive, if you keep entering additional orders after your pieces trade--just put in one order for everything. I was never sure if he was guessing or being a good artist.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    And Tesla's up .26 at 1:06 pm. !!!!!!!!!!!
    23 Feb 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Bricks for the housing industry are getting harder to come by.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
     
    So, how does this affect using used auto battery packs for grid storage? Remember the articles about 6 months back?
    23 Feb 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    Still: It makes the prospect extremely unlikely :-)

     

    I think we discussed at the time that the whole "second life" idea was just a greenwash of the disposal problem the huge battery packs would generate.
    23 Feb 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    On the plus side, if a battery makes it to a second life in grid storage, there's minimal risk of going to zero charge by accident! Going a couple months without charging would mean there were bigger problems out there than simply bricking the grid storage batteries...
    23 Feb 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    Think of the logistics of getting the battery from the "end of life" auto to the end user in grid storage. I think it's almost impossible to meet the "keep it on charge all the time" requirement while it goes thru an obviously complex pipeline to the end user. Sitting in some transit warehouse for months is almost guaranteed for a substantial percent of batteries.

     

    I stand by my position. It's not likely.
    23 Feb 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    While you're standing there, would you mind plugging in my Tesla?

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    SHB, also, how could you assemble a "string" of afterlife batteries? it's hard enough to balance a string of fresh batteries. Maybe it's not a problem...
    23 Feb 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Dead on observation SHB. If one is towed to a junk yard after a wreck it is a virtual certainty it will be dead as a door nail. Really poor design IMHO. How many times in my life did I go out and find a dead battery because I left the lights on? Mucho.
    23 Feb 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    The more I think about this whole issue, which I admit I never really saw coming, the more of a major fail it seems to be. Imagine you own one of these cars, and then leave on vacation, say even two weeks, like a camping or backpacking trip, and have to ensure that the car stays plugged in somewhere for that whole time. Talk about worry. What about if you travel extensively for work? Or spend extended time at a second home? Or happen to have a lengthy hospital stay? Or heaven forbid, you're in the military and get deployed for six months? The freaking car has to be babysat the whole time, because consequences for failure run to 40 grand. I mean, get real. And another thing just doesn't compute. If as tesla claims, a lengthy extension cord is enough to inhibit the proper maintaining of charge, then just how much float current and power is required exactly? Could the pack really self-discharge at such a high rate that a long extension cord could not keep it from draining? That just seems incredible. And if true, then how many KWh are required each day just to maintain the charge level of a parked car? I mean, what a great way to save money, no? Something just doesn't pass the smell test here. Either somehow this problem is being distorted in nature or proportion, or else tesla has the makings of major snowballing PR disaster on its hands. Particularly if this problem indeed spans to both the upcoming S and X models. Word will get around fast about any shabby treatment, particularly when $40K is at issue, and unless they implement a deeply reassuring response, they're going to watch all those precious deposits just evaporate...
    23 Feb 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 48: When I read something like this I always dig around--if time permits.

     

    There's lots of debate all over the I-Net about this blog.

     

    I've learned words like "transvistor" (sp?--Help me SHB! What does this do?) and how Tesla's battery management system "should" prevent any "system wide" battery failure.

     

    Probably should have put up the link I surfed into where battery semantics are being debated. I've always thought a battery is a battery. But noooo!

     

    Even if any of this is true, I'd love to see Tesla account for these five examples of $100K car-dooming battery failure.

     

    Juz try'n to keep the great balance thingy we all share as a goal about these Concentrators.

     

    The ebb and flow within how Tesla delivers from the gargantuan US "gov-us-mint" gift is definitely worth tracking.
    23 Feb 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I'm with you. There's the reality of the problem, the perception of the problem, the reality of the response, and the perception of the response. All the facts are far from being in at this point, but nevertheless, Tesla needs to expend some real energy here and carefully direct and manage all four of these quantities, before it spins out of their control. Maybe the issue turns out to be hogwash. But having a senior guy respond with only a perfunctory and useless email while on vacation in Buenos Aires is just too classic. Somehow I think all the present and future well-heeled tesla customers are going to expect and demand a lot more from them, and if they don't get it, they're going to scream. And then poof goes that tesla aura. And then many of the rest are going to walk.
    23 Feb 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Gov-us-mint" is perhaps the finest hyphenated word I've ever created. LOL, thanks to you, 48.

     

    Surely someone has done this before me!

     

    Yep. If I was on the list of Tesla buyers, and someone emailed me that link, I would be on the phone with Tesla at the crack of yesterday's dawn.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    Maya: re: "transvistor" - never heard of one.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Cross-dressing resistor?

     

    <*ducks flying shoes*>

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The only positive element I've seen for Tesla thus far is that it appears they have been able to "save" many cars in the 500+ group by monitoring their every move with gps...

     

    And knowing how independent mavericks like the group of early-adopters buying the Teslas can be...

     

    You have to wonder how this sort of necessary monitoring will resonate with prospective buyers.

     

    If there were an easy (or even moderately hard) fix for the newer cars coming off the line, why would they still be installing tracking devices and hiring staff to monitor them?

     

    Its a surreal, dark, comedy.
    24 Feb 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    Ur right, and "damage control" in these situations is not an easy deal. Just ask Toyota!
    24 Feb 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Tales from Google Alerts ...

     

    Bizarre language here:
    "Energy Storage From Xtreme Power"

     

    http://bit.ly/Ayz8uv

     

    Reads to me like it was translated from say Chinese ???

     

    "Xtreme Power describes a PowerCell record as a “unique, modernized lead poison battery that can kick lithium ion batteries in terms of energy storage, efficiency, cycle life and cost." "

     

    The supposed author: http://bit.ly/xwP8Xa

     

    Note that edf.org is the Environmental Defense Fund
    23 Feb 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the links. The first link gave me a headache trying to understand what was said. The second link has a link to the same article in the original (understandable) English.
    23 Feb 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Still dazed, eh?
    23 Feb 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3554) | Send Message
     
    Still dazed and confused. ;-)
    23 Feb 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Project: Take an article in Mandarin, use Google to translate it into English, save, then translate back into Mandarin, THEN translate back into English.

     

    Some wild stuff happens.
    23 Feb 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Is the process reversible? I think you've just described the perfect exemplar of hysteresis...
    23 Feb 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    This xtreme battery and much of their web site seems designed to make make people think there is something to it, but it it is too complicated you us simple minded folks to understand. "Give us your money and trust us."

     

    "Metal alloy-coated, ballistic grade fibers are woven together to offer structural integrity, as well as multiple pathways for ultra-low impedance current flow both in and out of the battery. Proprietary formulas of fundamental alloys, such as copper, lead and tellurium, are used to form bi-polar plates that provide a massive surface area at the nano-scale for the chemical reaction to take place"

     

    http://bit.ly/rPgYH2
    23 Feb 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Wow JohnM121! Almost as powerful as Futurist's confulerter.
    23 Feb 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JohnM121 ... All you need to know about this company is the word "tellurium". It will never amount to much of anything unless a new supply mine is discovered or First Solar (FSLR) goes belly up. There is just not enough in the world support much more than a niche but that might be enough to be quite profitable (silver buckshot and all). Could never make it to being disruptive contender.
    23 Feb 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Ah, that one in English would be here: http://bit.ly/xpkQtD

     

    which has a link to a video here:
    http://bit.ly/zQ1poL

     

    which is fairly general, though it introduces some of the people of Xtreme Power, touches briefly on recycling, and shows (barely) what one of their cells looks like.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Irreversible fun with google translate:

     

    Responsible to accept the motion (DCA) to start and stop, to maximize fuel efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions of the key micro-hybrid vehicle battery cycle life. The micro-hybrid engine internal combustion closed, more and better opportunities. All the features of the vehicle when the engine is switched off the car battery operation.

     

    Advanced lead-acid batteries and has even proved to be the beginning than to optimize the micro-hybrid life cycle energy stored because of its inherent defects in the DCA, and stop.

     

    Power International Axion claims that the new carbon-based battery technology in these areas, the best, therefore, suitable for micro-hybrid. The micro-hybrid vehicle plans to launch more time in the motor mode (slides), the company spent lead-acid technology is becoming more attractive.

     

    Recruitment micro-hybrid, similar forms of the overall solution of the dual-battery system, the axioms of the major car manufacturers. The advantage of the axiom battery technology, a trademark of Bank of China, is its unique ability to manage the so-called "hotel" (see Annex), cargo, including the challenges of the maximum battery performance. People's Bank of China, the traditional lead-acid batteries of battery-powered demanding game requirements and industry standards.

     

    Until recently, the standard vehicle, the role of lead-acid batteries is limited, simple start-up, lighting and ignition (http://bit.ly/AdMqQy). SLI battery designs can withstand a high level of charges, in order to resist the positive grid corrosion, and virtually maintenance free. Maintained in SLI implementation of conditions 100% of the battery charge state (SOC) in order to avoid the accumulation of lead sulfate.

     

    Station (http://bit.ly/zSrAPZ) battery, function and brake energy recovery (BER), however, must adapt to the frequent discharge, light and fast charge to start the vehicle. The International Space Station (http://bit.ly/zSrAPZ), the value of event (emissions) off the motor frequency, the value of the error rate depends on the braking capacity is responsible for receiving the battery (rechargeable) has been fully charged state (SOC or the PSoC called conditions).
    24 Feb 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    DRich > "All you need to know about this company is the word "tellurium"."

     

    OTOH, http://tinyurl.com/7bw... includes the statement, "Xtreme Power describes its PowerCell technology as a 'unique, advanced lead acid battery that can beat lithium ion batteries in terms of energy storage, efficiency, cycle life and cost.'" I am wondering about carbon content of PowerCell batteries and thinking about trying to track down patents.
    25 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... That might prove to be very interesting. I've never spent much time chasing down Extreme Powers specs, test records or patents. I don't believe they use carbon but do use reactive REEs. They say they beat Li-on but are a little skimpy on how, how much and at what cost.
    25 Feb 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    OK folks. I've done a fair amount of investigation over a long time and I believe that *my* statement about the purpose of the 100 share trades, from market-makers, is more likely correct. It has been supported, IIRC, by the link I posted from one who claims to have worked in the business.

     

    Can one explain, with links if possible, how a "ping" at $0.4075 when the bid is $0.4006 and the ask is $0.4099, like the one at 14:40:23, provides useful information?

     

    Thanks for any help,
    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    HTL
    No I cannot.
    But maybe it can enlighten you that I just purchased 24.000 pcs at 0,40 USD. Placed the purchase order at around 12 o'clock (eastern US time).
    23 Feb 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    I think that was a good buy.

     

    *If* there's any flippers left from the recent share issuance, it *appears* that we are safe from them until at least $0.42.

     

    I am very heartened that we haven't, so far, spent much time at $0.39 - touched that only two days before pps recovered, and we saw some recovery beginning in the volume too.

     

    As I've mentioned before, I'm much more comfortable when it acts as I expect and I stated I didn't think it would spend much time there.

     

    xxx <-- fingers crossed that it doesn't go back.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I too have watched with interest what we believe the MM making the 100 share trades. IMHO the ping at .4075 is an effort by the MM to get the market moving. It has also seemed to me over the past several weeks since I have been following this, that the MM has always tried to move the market higher. Don't really recall them making a lower bid than the actual price to move the market price lower.
    26 Feb 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    That matches my observation too JLL.

     

    I'm working up some numbers, but yesterday may have been among the lowest daily short sales I've seen since reporting started - 500 shares (I know we have had some zero days but not many and very few even near this level I think). The concern comes because now we are seeing higher averge liquidity and this level of daily short sales says something unusual is going on.

     

    I'm formatting stuff to take a deeper dive and see if there's a pattern of price and volume action since 4/2010.

     

    Should have some thoughts later today, but for right now it means at least 1 of 4 possible scenarios are in play.

     

    Buy:sell was a bit better, somewhere around 1:1.4x, but with shorts at such a level I don't believe I can read much into it yet.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Feb 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    Potentially, a lot of people sitting on sidelines waiting to see what happens combined with unwilling sellers and MM in neutral position. My thoughts voiced with much inexperience, not sure how valid they are.
    26 Feb 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    My *initial* thought is there's more intra or inter-broker trades going off and/or the flippers' certificates from the issuance got converted and are hitting the brokers' and market-makers' books now.

     

    If so, I'm suspecting we might be stuck in range for a *wee* bit until the shares backing the flippers' sells get washed through the system.

     

    For the examination of the stuff I've looked at so far, nothing moves much until daily short sales begin to move into "normal" range again. But this is *very* preliminary and I can't yet say how accurate that assessment is.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Feb 2012, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    My neophyte research, based on what I can glean from looking at different TA charts on stockcharts.com, is that price may move laterally for short while and not above .42 in next several days. We also seem to have support in .39 - .40 range. Any news would completely change this scenario. There is also the possibility of a price run up for the CC in the expectation there will be news at that time. All IMHO.
    27 Feb 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Well, when two sets of technical stuff (the traditional TA and my focus on the daily short sales, if accurate) say the same thing, we might have a strong chance of being correct.

     

    BTW, for this look, I decided the daily charting of daily short sales was two "noisy", akin to a 5/10 day EMA or longer-term SMA.

     

    So I gened a new set of charts from 2010 forward in about 6-month chunks which are overlapping a couple weeks, and am playing with 3, 5, 10 and 25 day SMAs of daily short sales.

     

    Right now trying the 5 day crossing one of the longer ones, factoring the trends and other data-points in. Looking somewhat promising ATM. A change in the shorter-term average *seems* to lead certain price-trend changes a good percentage of the time, so far, and a cross of the shorter-term through the longer term seems to offer a confirmation.

     

    This is somewhat similar to what we look for in price SMAs, but is more strongly geared to the actual trading activity (selling versus buying) I think. This seems to be related to the fact that market makers only short-sell for two reasons: stimulate trades (small volumes of short sales?) to generate income or respond to sell orders received (possibly larger volumes?).

     

    And the follow-on action as either the market-makers cover their shorts or shares backing sell orders arrive seems to generate the clues I *think* I'm seeing.

     

    It's sort of like watching the valves on an IC engine: if you don't know what a cam is and can't see it, the valve action seems somewhat miraculous. If you are aware of the cam, the valve actuation is a natural follow-on and seems mundane.

     

    That's what's driving my look into the "cam" that actually activates the market in our equities. And the *only* evidence I've been able to find that *may* show what that "cam" is doing seems to reside in these daily short sales reports.

     

    But the daily transaction tapes, which detail *every* transaction are on my radar next and there's no telling what may derive from that.

     

    LoL! I guess I'm in my own little R & D mode here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Feb 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    i like your cam analogy. I guess we also have to take into account, when looking at the historical data, is that there are now more outstanding shares.
    27 Feb 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    ... more shares.

     

    Yes. I've been trying to figure if there's a way I can make a SWAG at when newly issued shares being traded begins to abate, based on volume et al.

     

    So far, not a strong idea on that. The only thing that seems to have worked sometimes so far is a combo of volume, trade-size trends, changes in bid/ask (ask dropping faster than bid rises after some inexorably long "dead air time"), daily short sales and bid:ask with overall price action.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    But combining it all and getting a recognizable reliable pattern is likely to take some time.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Feb 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Recent mention of Coda as a (Chinese) EV company, but it seems they're trying to get into Grid Storage as well:

     

    http://bit.ly/z2w6k5

     

    http://bit.ly/y4G6Fd

     

    from: http://bit.ly/zKifQY

     

    "Proven, efficient technology: CODA builds on a foundation of proven, efficient and reliable lithium-ion (Li-ion) technology"

     

    "Additionally, we have recently acquired EnergyCS, a proven BMS company, and thus offer the complete spectrum of energy storage expertise - from our BMS to our DC source controller - under one roof, enabling us to provide rapid and robust service to our customers."
    23 Feb 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    JV partner (Lishen) revealed here:
    http://bit.ly/yQCmrn

     

    In a previous Concentrator it was mentioned how relatively few American employees of the Coda car company there were.

     

    Note the picture on this page, and referenced this article:

     

    http://bit.ly/xhcG0y

     

    which mentioned a link to the Chinese Military.

     

    Wonder if ZBB and A123 are paying attention???
    23 Feb 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    Considering how different grid storage is from EV use, I would say that the EV use idea just didn't work out for them. They were forced to "re-purpose" their technology to stationary storage.

     

    Has anyone seen any reliable numbers on EV sales in China?
    23 Feb 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    CODA is trying to do EVs in SoCal. Further on, they are supposed to start doing them in China. This from UQM reports - CODA is their biggest potential customer ATM, IIRC.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    End of day flurry ... pretty much all right at .40
    $0.4074 1,350 OBB 15:45:18
    $0.4074 100 OBB 15:37:57
    $0.4074 100 OBB 15:37:56
    $0.4000 2,900 OBB 15:37:22
    $0.4075 100 OBB 15:30:12
    $0.4000 2,800 OBB 15:29:06
    $0.4075 100 OBB 15:20:17
    $0.4000 6,000 OBB 15:17:18
    $0.4000 5,000 OBB 15:17:12
    $0.4000 26,200 OBB 15:17:08
    $0.4000 11,756 OBB 15:15:30
    $0.4075 100 OBB 15:14:27
    $0.4000 20,244 OBB 15:14:06
    $0.4075 100 OBB 15:13:31
    $0.4000 49,512 OBB 15:13:26
    $0.4000 244 OBB 15:13:26
    $0.4000 244 OBB 15:13:26
    23 Feb 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Today: 5K more.
    23 Feb 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exide expanding in Salina, KA; adding 100 to 130 jobs:

     

    http://on.msnbc.com/Af...
    23 Feb 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    GM Appoints Jon Lauckner Chief Technology Officer

     

    "“With both GM Ventures and Research and Development aligned under him, we will be more nimble and can move faster to integrate the latest and most-advanced technologies into our vehicles for the benefit of customers.”

     

    http://bit.ly/yWqNQb
    23 Feb 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Just web surfing start-stop. Finally read JCI's product pages:

     

    http://bit.ly/zBaC8F

     

    Some juicy excerpts:

     

    "AGM technology, with its Absorbent Glass Mat, is the most advanced development of lead technology" If you say so...or, not for long...

     

    "Expert Advice From VARTA:
    Vehicles with automatic Start-Stop technology require specific Start-Stop batteries. The wrong battery not only impairs the Start-Stop function with environmental consequences, but also reduces the service life of the battery itself. Tests have shown that conventional flooded batteries lose between 7 and 16% of their available capacity after just one week of being used in a Start-Stop vehicle." Please, continue--your Varta Start-Stop Plus also loses how much, how fast? And after, say, 6 months?

     

    "SUPPLIER OF 80% OF ALL BATTERIES FITTED TO NEW VEHICLES" "OE Contracts [include]: BMW EfficientDynamics, GM ecoFLEX." So, if Axion sells to BMW (and GM?), will they do that with JCI?
    23 Feb 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    JCI dominate the market. Exide has just a very small market share, most of their business is after market. So JCI are doing just fine, will be making bigger margins with their marginally improved batteries for SS. Their business plan looks just fine without external technologies like Axion trying to push in and take some of the pie. So the notion of end user driven demand opening the door for Axion is what we are betting on here for auto. If the car companies think they can get by with VARTA, they will. Makes me nervous. Maybe others too?
    23 Feb 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    It is unnerving to see the public and government go after Lithium and other technologies. It is also frustrating to see Exide and others avoiding Axion's PbC and trying to work around the patents and develop their own substitutes.

     

    However, the news is getting around that most batteries don't deliver their promised service life. The Chevy Volt's fire hazard has tarnished Lithium's teflon reputation. The Honda small claims court loss has sent shivers through the car industry to get things right the first time. Now the TSLA bricks are bringing a new awareness of the extreme cost of EV technology.
    23 Feb 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Auto's were so far out (24 months from a recent TG remark last year) they don't matter to us right this minute. No reason to worry about it. Maybe it is five years waiting for regulatory changes, customer demand, warranty issues, etc. However, BMW is obsessed with engineering excellence and they just might want to do it right versus follow the crowd.

     

    Right now Axion has to push other markets while doing the next right thing with autos for a couple years. Mild hybrid auto like the GM research *might* be a little more fertile ground in the near-term.

     

    Given JCI's share of the OEM auto market, if they really wanted the PbC they would probably just send someone to New Castle with a big fat check in his hand. TG stated in an investor's conference long ago that Axion might be an acquisition target by a large battery company, and if not, they would just execute Axion's marketing plan.
    23 Feb 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Agreed Bang auto is a way out, however I posit that if the path to the auto market were long but well defined (e.g. Axion could service an OEM directly with the final battery), it would put something into the stock value in advance of the first battery sale. As it is we appear to be missing one very important piece of that particular puzzle.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Same goes for the other biggest potential customers, right? Utilities, railroads, big oil, dept of defense. The bigger they are, the slower and more cautiously they usually move. Material sales would be the best, of course, but even a bit of additional news about arrangements, partnerships, discussions, additional active testing, grants, a smile from another railroad company's exec, a white paper from an independent lab that concludes the PbC is awesome, etc. moves this stock up, and possibly big, depending on the details.

     

    It has been mentioned numerous times here that the fly on the elephant often is prevented from disclosing almost anything about the relationship, even that it exists. That's a double-edged sword--hard to make an informed investment decision with such a dirth of current info (e.g., what's the current outlook for PowerCube? NS? BMW? Exide?), but that's a BIG reason why the stock's so cheap. For me, it's a great opportunity to keep accumulating. Sorry for the guys that got in earlier, at higher prices, but I think I lucked out by getting in so late--cheap prices and much closer to big change.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Allen & Caron, Axion's Investor Relations and PR firm has a web page that lists quite a few Axion articles, some of whom I hadn't seen before. It's here: http://bit.ly/AcwCKE
    23 Feb 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I've posted about Allen & Caron several times since I started posting here and never got a reply [key the tumbleweed footage]. What's that they say about the definition of insanity? 8^)

     

    So, my own limited experience with nano-cap PR firms, at least ones that doubled as IR firms, was that they often could help shed light on the supply and demand dynamics of a stock as well as the outlook of the underlying company. At least until the issuer hired an in-house guy. Admittedly, my experience was before the current regulatory lock-down environment like we seem to have now, so maybe any commentary out of them would be unhelpful. But sometimes you never know until you ask...just an idea if someone feels assertive...
    24 Feb 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    One of the Axionista's spoke with Allen and Caron a while back about the need for an Axion Wiki but ultimately nothing came of it. Then WDD grabbed the bull by the horns this year and did a hell of a good job creating one.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    The Wiki and your site are great ideas. But if A&C is also filling the IR role, then I gotta think they have their ear to the rail (ha) and have some very interesting info that probably none of us others know. I suspect they'll never let us in on it, though. Probably part of their contract w/ Axion. Just dreaming out loud.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion does a great job of restricting access to important information and keeping rumor from spreading. Even with an ear close to the root of the grapevine, the closer things get the quieter they get. The recent PowerCube commissioning was a great example. We all knew it was being built to work as a behind the meter resource. Nobody even had a hint that Axion had worked all the way through the entire process of setting the PowerCube up to provide frequency regulation services on the other side of the meter. Building the PowerCube was relatively simple. Setting it up as one of the first two behind the meter FR resources in the country was extraordinarily complex. The team isn't much for putting out soothing fluff, but when they speak they generally have something very important to say.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    WSJ article on $10B of stimulus money for green jobs that never came...

     

    http://on.wsj.com/wH9Dh3
    24 Feb 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2705) | Send Message
     
    Interesting and related announcements this am:
    "Panasonic ... announced that it will supply lithium-ion battery cells for Ford Motor Company’s hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles" and will be expanding production to China: http://bit.ly/y6H7ow

     

    AND also in the news "Ford Opens New Plant in Chongqing" http://bit.ly/AA1QXB
    24 Feb 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 2/23/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    A quick note on the chart: making a triangle, which is often a continuation pattern (lower in this case). It's not strongly indicative of a down move and we do have some more positive movement in the oscillators - but not strongly yet.

     

    Buy, sell and unknown ended at 49,302, 173,713, and 0 respectively, giving total volume for the day of 223,015. Buy:sell at EOD was 1:3.52.

     

    There were 63 trades, yielding an average trade size of ~3,540, a nice improvement from some of the mid-2K sizes seen recently. This suggests that *some* confidence that we are unlikely to retrace much at this time. But do keep in mind this larger block and those from below - the average trade size is *much* smaller without these trades. The largest trade of the day was 1 49,512 @ $0.40 late in the day, 15:13.

     

    Almost sounds pretty good, huh? But hold on! There were 2x244 at the same price at the same time. This totals 50K. They were "sells". Notice a similarity from yesterday?

     

    "The day's volume was "saved" by 2x25K trades, "sells", at $0.40 at 15:58".

     

    Similar time-frame, same quantity, same price.

     

    There were another 20,244 and 26,200 "sells" at $0.40 at 15:14 and 15:17 respectively and an 11,756 "sell" at $0.40 at 15:15. This is starting to look highly suspicious to me ...

     

    Somebody that has a noticeable quantity of shares to unload may be getting serviced at $0.40. Another digression on the buy:sell seems to support this. I'll try to look a little deeper below. Meanwhile, back to some trade sizes and prices ...

     

    There was one "buy" at 15K for $0.41, one 10K "sell" at $0.4017 at 12:06 and the rest that I've not mentioned were all smaller and ranged from $0.40 to $0.415.

     

    Looking deeper, the day's volume increased 40.5% while daily short sales increased by 35.7% - pretty darn close. The percentage short sales declined just a smidgen.

     

    Since the "sells" of just the larger blocks at $0.40 is larger than the daily short sales and there were about 22% that were "buys" and 78% "sells", it seems apparent that a larger player satisfied by a $0.40 share price *is* in the market.

     

    If it's Quercus, I don't mind. If it's one of the "flippers" from the recent share issuance, I object. They are taking a ~14.3% profit out of *our* pockets if we buy here. Does it matter in the long run? Not much. For folks trying to position themselves with a better possible reasonable price, it matters a lot.

     

    I'm not moving my target to replace my trading blocks until price either moves above $0.42 on volume or back into $0.39.

     

    I will *not* buy here. If it's one of the "flippers" and they can be satisfied with 14%+, why not 12%, 11%, 10%, ...

     

    This means, to *me*, there is some *potential* downside as this seller has a short time-frame, if it's not Quercus. Since we've not seen a filing from Quercus backing the possibility I mentioned that they (or flippers) *might* be in 2/17, I strongly suspect we have a "flipper" in.

     

    201 Vol 2476749, Sht 0948628 38.30% LHC 0.3800 0.5500 0.4700 b:s 1:1.20
    202 Vol 0584698, Sht 0181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.4800 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    203 Vol 1019813, Sht 0235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.4690 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1
    206 Vol 0392838, Sht 0202806 51.63% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4650 b:s 1.04:1
    207 Vol 0413428, Sht 0094842 22.94% LHC 0.4300 0.4650 0.4500 b:s 1.32:1
    208 Vol 0570071, Sht 0115522 20.26% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4500 b:s 1:1.06
    209 Vol 0335713, Sht 0094570 28.17% LHC 0.4251 0.4600 0.4300 b:s 1:4.76
    210 Vol 0220029, Sht 0088190 40.08% LHC 0.4220 0.4500 0.4400 b:s 4.01:1
    213 Vol 0239000, Sht 0105800 44.27% LHC 0.4201 0.4550 0.4392 b:s 1.89:1
    214 Vol 0102654, Sht 0056004 54.56% LHC 0.4350 0.4400 0.4400 b:s UNKNOW
    215 Vol 0350513, Sht 0035300 10.07% LHC 0.4200 0.4399 0.4240 b:s 1:3.64
    216 Vol 0132100, Sht 0006097 04.62% LHC 0.4100 0.4249 0.4200 b:s 15.7:1
    217 Vol 0486232, Sht 0057485 11.82% LHC 0.4000 0.4250 0.4000 b:s 1:3.94
    221 Vol 0285865, Sht 0091330 31.95% LHC 0.3900 0.4200 0.4050 b:s 1:1.76
    222 Vol 0158786, Sht 0038100 23.99% LHC 0.3900 0.4050 0.4050 b:s 1:2.69
    223 Vol 0223015, Sht 0051699 23.18% LHC 0.4000 0.4150 0.4074 b:s 1:3.52

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Frrat
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks HTL, my dry powder just arrived. With your analysis, I am able to wait more patiently for my next entrance point...
    24 Feb 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1285) | Send Message
     
    while i LOVE your TA, in the next 30 days we are likely to get some news from AXPW. imagine, even with no sales, how TG will answer questions about his sales hire and the coo position they are looking to hire.

     

    TA is more useful the less information i have. more information can at least suggest where break outs are heading (up/down)
    25 Feb 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    OT...but gotta love our pols!

     

    Florida congressman upset at Obama for $70 fill-up of his Hummer

     

    http://yhoo.it/xUf309
    24 Feb 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Is a Congressman who complains about fuel costs for a 4,900 pound Hummer H3 somehow more ridiculous than a Department of Energy that used $170 million of taxpayer money to subsidize the design and engineering for the 5,300 pound Fisker Karma that will also offer a $7,500 tax credit for the purchaser?
    24 Feb 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... You ask a simple question to answer. It is a resounding "YES". The Congressman is far and away the hands down winner. He voted in the affirmative for his purchase, the DOE program & the rebate. Without his being a clueless dweeb none of these bad ideas would be funded.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I just posted about the Fisker on the Mustang site. They just lost their half billion $ DOE loan (I guess the $170million is what they wasted before the DOE jerked the nipple loose), more taxpayer money down the hole. I was just reading on the WSJ about $10billion tossed away on similar boondoggles this year, and are laying folks off in Delaware. A Fisker has a larger V6 engine PLUS the hybrid pack, but its so heavy it performs worse than a Toyota Camry (despite a swoopy body), and gets only about 30mpg.
    24 Feb 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Is there definitive word on the Fisker loan or are they still renegotiating?
    24 Feb 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Excellent points. See what happens when I don't backtrack a train of thought to first principles?
    24 Feb 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I really wonder about people like the good Congressman. He'll rant and rave about the money spent on an ill-conceived program but doesn't think twice about spending ten times that amount for an ill-conceived war. Both done with no willingness to pay for either.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    New article on Viridity ... they're playing in lots of ways, and working with ConED cant hurt. Brief mention on AXPW.

     

    http://bit.ly/x4sLwL
    24 Feb 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Oftentimes brief mentions like that are more important than press releases because they can get people thinking on their own and start them down a research path. I never forget the George M Cohan line "I don't care what you say about me as long as you say something and spell my name right."
    24 Feb 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I remember a sports figure quote (might be baseball, not sure): "The worst thing about negative press is that you never get enough of it."
    24 Feb 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Note that the connection with ConEd Solutions goes back to Oct 2011:

     

    http://bit.ly/xeHxLj

     

    ConED Solutions has a pretty big footprint, not just in NY. Though their mileage varies with different ISOs I would guess.

     

    One of these links led me to a Viridity Energy White Paper written sometime in 2011 on the FERC changes:

     

    http://bit.ly/zeUlBI

     

    Note that this refers to a "Proposal." Quite sure there was pushback, so I'm not at all clear on what's final, and how final "final" really is.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    If Axion could get a piece of the action with ConEd, that would be huge; not as huge as the military, but huge none-the-less.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Panasonic to provide Ford with lithium batteries for hybrid and plug-in vehicles:

     

    http://yhoo.it/wkpS4C
    24 Feb 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Isn't that a killer for A123? That was one of the major reasons they opened a plant in Michigan. Oh yeah, I forgot they are a grid storage company now, they could careless about Auto.

     

    They are down 4% today.
    24 Feb 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP: You'll relish reading this article about, "Electric cars dirty little secret."

     

    I most certainly loved reading it. Great Urban Dictionary word: "Enviroweenies!" Serious, fundamental EV bashing:

     

    http://natpo.st/zCEUFJ
    24 Feb 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2705) | Send Message
     
    Tesla CEO calls fuss over $40,000 battery risk "irrational fear." I didn't see any denial of the problem, however. http://bloom.bg/yWbLIA
    24 Feb 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure it's just a coincidence but the French term for do-it-yourself is bricolage. It probably won't be long before somebody comes up with an appropriate pun on the streets of Paris.
    24 Feb 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Jeez, if you haven't looked in awhile, WTI's getting up near $110, and Brent is much higher still. More incentive for some stuff that could use PbC.
    24 Feb 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Late-day bigger trades starting now. This is turning into a tradable pattern.

     

    2x24,700 @ $0.41 15:15:49.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wow! New feature on my trading platform: I have close up volume today at 135.5k. Close down volume at 35.8K.

     

    24 Feb 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    And what do those numbers mean exactly?
    24 Feb 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Well...his platform didn't tell him that.
    24 Feb 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Thank God someone asked that question.

     

    I was thinking that it was apparent to everyone else except me, the class dummy.
    24 Feb 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not exactly sure. It's a new feature (been on for about a week). But it looks like it tracks transactions that close up, close down, or swap at the same price--the swap for the same price is not tallied but shown in a bar form.
    24 Feb 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    what platform are you using?
    24 Feb 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LT: Zecco Trading.
    24 Feb 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    Off Topic Comment.

     

    From the Handy Husbands Handbook of Helpful Home Hints:

     

    When you open the sealed metal box that holds your ammunition, always check (and replace if necessary) the desiccant. Trapped moisture can cause premature failure of your ammo and rust the steel box. Also inspect the rubber sealing gasket for damage or aging.

     

    Ya'll be safe out there!
    24 Feb 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Silicon. It never hurts to be reminded. Along the same line, National Rifle Association certified weapons instructors are very good for those just getting started.
    24 Feb 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Loan defaults & gov't policy:
    On the previous concentrator a lot of talk about loan defaults, gov't policy and a lot of clean energy failures...also Nat gas cars now.

     

    Let me remind you of two major things, even with the failures of Solyndra etc,
    1. DOE loan defaults are still less than projected when they made the $10b available for loans. http://bloom.bg/zuVJ42

     

    2. Without gov't moving towards electric cars, grid storage, zero energy buildings - AXPW would not exist or be a viable company ever. (see #3) Whether we like it or not it is true.

     

    3. Nat. gas was a natural move next, as it basically uses the same combustion engine, the oil companies can control it and have & will continue to purchase assets as companies like CHK buy up leases and spend the initial manpower and $$$$ to get them up and running. Cost savings, I think NOT. If you think Nat gas is going to stay at $2 your dreaming....as soon as any more "cars" start using it, big oil will price it according to oil/gasoline. $5 gas is coming folks for whatever the reason or excuse. It will destroy the economy too.

     

    I have stated this before, that electricity was not welcomed when it first came out, governments must lead the way in new innovation acceptance...an example is "who designed the internet"...the department of defense is who funded it and under Clinton opened it to the public. Today we have another economy as large or larger than it was in GDP before it. Private money would have never spent all the $$$ to make it worldwide without gov't help. In fact the fortune 500 companies were the last to adopt it and seriously hoped it would fail, but dot-com bubble and all, the public forced them to go "online", emails, advertise and all. REmember the super bowl ads and the old time companies got bumped from advertising by the dot coms? Yes some failed but how many made it? How many people are employed by tech companies now? Was it worth the cost spent by gov't?

     

    Electric cars were tried and failed in the 90's with the auto's money, and I think considering a $14T economy that $10b is cheap to begin the transition from oil to "something" more efficient to the people. Now we at least have options with S/S and other tech that has & will continue to double the mileage....yes it is expensive now but will cheapen in the future.

     

    I am not taking political sides, but remember, we would not be here if not for these grants/loans, not to mention the grid and it's age and need for new infrastructure. It took years to build out broad band internet and fine tune things, and it will be the same way in clean energy. There is no reason why SS is not standard on all vehicles, and some form of solar energy in every home. Just as we know that SS is coming for sure in 2 years so will other forms of energy savings be the standard. and ... we all bet that AXPW's future will be there with it. I just get tired of the bashing...from both sides.
    25 Feb 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I think it is a good post LT but I don't believe this: "Without gov't moving towards electric cars, grid storage, zero energy buildings - AXPW would not exist or be a viable company ever. (see #3) Whether we like it or not it is true."

     

    I am not sure how you can make this statement? As energy prices rise naturally, through natures unbiased elimination of inefficiencies quality products in energy storage will make their mark in the world through a free market.

     

    (P.S. I won't argue whether the government can expedite this progress efficiently or not, because that gets into politics and like you said it can be argued from both sides in different cases.)
    25 Feb 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    A PbC battery can never even compete with lead acid to just "start" a car. (gas or nat gas) and what fortune 500 company wants game changing tech to disrupt their business model? Did Wal-Mart lead the way to online sales or did Amazon force them to?

     

    Free mkt has nothing to do with resistance by large companies to change. They like the status quo...as is business model. Do business with each other to keep out competition....How many have endorsed AXPW or PbC yet ?
    25 Feb 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    As a fellow Axionista, LT, I respect your opinion. But it is not one I share.

     

    My personal opinion is that the role of government in the economy should be very limited.

     

    Research and Development funded by government seems to have a role - the internet and the thousands of technologies produced by the space program and military are well-known examples.

     

    There are also certain natural monopolies where the government needs to get involved, such as electricity.

     

    However, I don't agree that Axion would not exist without government support and I don't know on what basis you make that conclusion.

     

    While it certainly helps us that government mandates have increased automotive fuel efficiency requirements thus creating a demand for ancillary technologies like the PbC.

     

    But peak oil (and peak everything) will continue to produce higher prices that will create a demand for efficiency improvement technologies like the PbC without government intervention.

     

    Again, I respect your opinion, LT, but I believe you're giving government far more credit than it deserves.

     

    D

     

    !Viva los Axionistas!
    25 Feb 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    This can probably go around and around but hey...its Saturday. The middle-class drives all economies in every modern society. An economies success is largely due to the size of its middle class. Large companies are forced to listen to the middle-classes wallets to survive and people are forced to listen to natures law of supply/demand -- aka free market.

     

    The Prius being created ten years ago is a pretty darn good example of how things "should" work...and in that kind of environment a PbC has every right to exist based on companies looking for a better product to meet their customers needs.

     

    (I am not saying government has no role to play, but the argument to what extent can be debated over and over.)
    25 Feb 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    If the $10b for clean energy was not for R&D...what was it for..?? I think the D stands for "development"...

     

    I agree that gov't can have less roles in places, but you can;'t have it both ways...why let them regulate electricity and other areas and not in clean energy? Is increased fuel economy not worth it?

     

    Without govt mandates on mileage would you have advances now....I think not....we didn't have before. Peak oil has been known for over 30 years...However all we did was watch gas prices rise, and did absolutely nothing. At least now, we have created awareness and more research to advance tech and we learn from our mistakes, then the free mkt can take over.

     

    We send over $1T per year out of this country on oil alone (it could be more, but I don;t have time to research) so what if it costs $1b or $200 b to end it...it's better than these "one time shots" EVERY year to prop something. You save the consumer that 5x every year for life...We spend >$4t on two wars, over what? oil? We spent how much bailing out Wall St. & banks? I read that if TARP had been sent to consumers it would have been $70,000 per household (not per person but per house) Which would have boosted the economy more? I'm definitely not arguing the pro's & cons of TARP, but the numbers are what I wanted to stress....and the point is, even in hard times we could/did/can invest over a trillion $$$$ IF the benefit is there....the arguments then come down to "WHO" it benefits....and so far the consumer and middle class has lost.

     

    If we had invested that $5 trillion in to beneficial things for the economy, consumer, jobs, clean energy (all areas) what would it be worth and long term benefits be? We did invest it, but I see no benefits.
    25 Feb 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Que vivan los AXIONISTAS.!!!!!!!!!!!
    25 Feb 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I must politely disagree with respect to your conclusion about Axion.

     

    We started work on the PbC in 2003 when the government and markets were enthralled with panacea solutions in fuel cells and biofuel. There was no policy level interest in batteries and certainly no support.

     

    By 2006 we were convinced that renewables integration would create immense needs for storage and that micro-hybrids were likely to be a critical auto industry response to escalating fuel prices. Policy support for batteries didn't begin to develop until after the bulk of our scientific research was complete and we had raised $18 million from Quercus to build our first automated electrode fabrication line.

     

    When policy support for batteries finally developed after the 2008 election, 95% of government support for the new panacea solutions was dedicated to electric cars and only 5% was set aside as a token investment in better batteries for micro-hybrids.

     

    Axion survived the first eight years of its existence despite government policies not because of them. I know it wasn't your intent, but the suggestion that Axion "would not exist or be a viable company" without the benign hand of government is probably the most offensive thing you could ever say to those of us who put our personal fortunes at risk and sweat blood and bullets to develop a transformational technology and bring a cost-effective product to market.

     

    The $10 billion in DOE funding had nothing to do with research or development. Instead, it was all about deploying technologies that were not ready for prime time. The money could not be used to develop promising technologies to a point where they might be economic. Instead, it was used to force uneconomic technologies into the market before they were mature enough to compete on their own merits. Current forecasts of loss rates on the $10 billion of DOE loans are all well and good, but they remind me of 2006 vintage forecasts on the collectibility of the A and B tranches of CDOs.
    25 Feb 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    LT > "A PbC battery can never even compete with lead acid to just "start" a car."

     

    There is no evidence to support that assumption, while there is plenty of evidence to support the premise that large established companies (and labor unions) resist change that threatens their business models (and membership/union slots on the union side). And, I find it reasonable to infer that Axion's strategy of developing 'drop-in' electrodes that established battery manufacturers can substitute for lead electrodes is in part aimed at limiting resistance of the established battery companies.
    25 Feb 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Your statement "no evidence to support that assumption" of LT's " ... PbC ... can never ...compete with '(LA)' to just "start" a car." is only true because Axion's PbC is not on the market yet and we don't know the consumer price. Today, I can buy a LA battery for $45 and get it to last 3-5 years. My last one was 8 yrs. old until I went and murdered it last summer doing a little Start/Stop experiment. If "starting" is the job at hand PbC can't compete on price (assuming people don't keep a car forever). If the status quo and job changes the LA won't compete as I demonstrated to myself.

     

    Market forces alone will not bring change to a presently profitable model without some outside influence, be it coming competition or regulatory change. Change is much slower the larger the barrier to market entry is.
    25 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    Your argument has some merit, as it applies to the development of EVs, but remember that the development of EVs started decades ago with private money from the major auto manufacturers. It would seem to me that, to say that the manufacturers are resistant to that change is somewhat short-sighted; only viewing current market dynamics. It will undoubtedly be a gradual transition, just as in your example of the internet. First there was the internet, then WANs and WWW and ever new technology developing in each of those areas to keep it evolving. Although I will say that the internet differs from EVs in that it was an entirely new aspect of data communications, whereas EVs are still just transportation that may gradually replace ICEs, energy efficiency technologies such as SS will only be steps along the way. The potential market for SS, EVs or any variation thereof has already been defined and while it is huge, it is what it is with limited growth potential; i.e. I don't think there is tremendous growth potential for the number of cars on the road, be they ICE, EV or some hybrid of the two.

     

    The more important issue with your position, IMO, is that you seem to focus only on the brand new markets being created for the PbC. I think the technological merits of the PbC would eventually create it's own new markets simply via companies' efforts to constantly improve their products and service offerings, though it would certainly be a slower growth than what I expect to see in the current environment. AXPW's efforts thus far have been focused on developing the technology, their manufacturing capability and finally applying the product to potential markets. That would be the same process whether the EV and grid markets existed or not.

     

    IMO, the potential in rig applications of the Powercube and military applications are huge. Perhaps not as large as future grid applications, but I think they're huge none-the-less and have a shorter market development cycle, thus building momentum to keep the company moving forward and opening new eyes to the potential of their technology. And yes, I do think the military would get around adopting the technology on its own, once it was introduced to the potential it provides them. I think they probably would be working toward decreased dependence on diesel simply as a matter of strategic development. Supply transportation is a liability for them. The more they can get out of each delivery of diesel, the less reliant they are on the next delivery arriving successfully and the better off they are.

     

    Fortune 500 companies may be loathe to completely redesign their business model, but they are forced by the consumer to constantly innovate and improve their products and services and they're forced by the street to do the same in order to increase revenues and profits. That's why it's so difficult for the largest companies to meet the street's expectations without acquisition. They have to produce organic growth as well.
    25 Feb 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    >DRich ... My "no evidence to support that assumption" statement is true because there is no evidence to support the stated assumption, PERIOD! Your commentary about PbCs not being on the market does nothing more than highlight absence of information, i.e. - support my statement. There is neither market nor technical information available to support the assertion.

     

    Your repetition of LT's assertion that PbCs can't compete on price for starting batteries is again nothing more than assertion.

     

    Good for you that you can get 3-5 years service life out of a $45 LA battery, but you do not a market make. Moreover, since (as you noted) there are no PbC batteries in the market there is no PbC price available to compare with your putative $45 one. So, as far as I can tell your argument is totally moot.

     

    Further, other people almost certainly have greater/lesser inclination to fart around with batteries, or to purchase charging equipment needed to rejuvenate partially sulfated LA, or search out - and transport the batteries to - firms that can provide that service, or purchase and install "power vampire" chargers to maintain full SOC in FLA/AGM batteries.

     

    I, for one, am perfectly willing to pay a premium over flooded LA battery prices for the convenience of not having to monitor water levels in the cells (or depend on someone else to monitor and use uncontaminated water to replenish). I do not hesitate to pay premium prices for long service life AGM/VLRA batteries to replace OEM product in my vehicles (my '97 Dodge pickup saw introduction of its 2nd 84-month rated service life battery last August).

     

    You do not a market make, and NEITHER DO I. Between us and 313, 080, 318 other people in the U.S., though, I see ample reason to suspect PbC batteries could be profitable in some U.S. consumer end-markets. While I am not a typical battery consumer in some respects, I am also not extremely unusual in willingness to pay for convenience, reliability, and/or energy savings.
    25 Feb 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    DR,

     

    Did you recognize any fuel savings in your experiment?
    25 Feb 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... OK, I'm stumped. I've no idea what your argument may be. If the job at hand is just starting a car, nothing more, the PbC will be able to do that just as well as a LA. Not better. I'm not in that camp but that is the basis of the two battery Start/Stop system. The expectation that the AGM or Li-on, presently in use, would fail to function in 'Hotel' & 'Start' mode. I think the PbC can be modified, if required, to handle both.

     

    Mr. Granville has estimated the price(?) of PbC to be about $125 more than LA. So on price to accomplish a single function there is little doubt in my mind which the market would choose to be the commodity product of choice. That's not to say there is not a profitable niche, such as yourself, that will not pay a premium for more battery than you need or fart around with the thing. I know I will once I know it is an available consumer product. I'll bet there may be a profitable niche for Li-on starter batteries.
    25 Feb 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Establishing the marketing, distribution and customer service infrastructure for a consumer product is immensely expensive and time consuming. Once your product is in the hands of a consumer, you have to assume he'll do something crazy with it and then complain because your crappy product didn't stand up to his creative expectations. The bottom line is Axion has neither the financial resources nor the time to fool around with trying to introduce an ultra-premium product to a consumer market that can't possibly take advantages of the product's strengths.
    25 Feb 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    My thinking is that the PbC is basically an entirely new class of device. It's not simply just a better battery. It's a low-cost, long-life, high-power, but limited energy device that matches best with high-cycling duty applications where size and weight aren't key performance parameters. Consumers already have a wide range of existing battery choices for typical existing consumer applications. The truly appropriate applications for PbC are frankly ones that are being developed right now and aren't fully there yet. Mostly because a battery that could properly service them hasn't really existed before either. Witness all the current action in the SS, microhybrid, stationary storage, and grid enhancement spaces. None of these areas can be described as "mature". It's a bit of the classic chicken or the egg problem. While there *are* special applications that have been waiting years for something like the PbC to arrive, that doesn't mean they've all been sitting there ready to go, just waiting for a PbC drop-in. Awareness of the PbC by those who could put it to best use is expanding. Awareness by Axion of those corresponding parties is increasing as well. Movement is certainly occurring. But this all takes time. Too much time. As we so painfully know. But it is what it is. And five years hence, when what are uncertain developments now will all be much more solidified and established, this process, and what we're going through now, will all appear to have been necessary and inevitable....
    25 Feb 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >eggwis ... I wasn't really going for fuel savings. At the time the argument was about hotel loads. I was more trying to see if accessory load could be a killer. I guess you could say I realized a great deal of fuel savings.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Feb 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    LT
    Good points made.
    I believe there is a "role" for the government, but frustrating when too much politics gets in the way...and where a strategy is the "chosen" one.
    Good example of your point may be the government raising the gas mileage for new cars.
    Car makers scrambling for solutions...healthy.
    " I just get tired of the bashing...from both sides."
    Point taken!
    25 Feb 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    481086.

     

    Excellent comment.
    25 Feb 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I've never thought Axion would waste the time on consumer marketing. It is not in the business plan. It is the secondary reason I'd like to see a manufacturing partnership.
    25 Feb 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    The PbC IS a new class of device and it fits perfectly and a drop in replacement for LA in a very large market space but perhaps not our cars. Our car engines have become REALLY small and I suspect will grow smaller. However, there are massive martkets where engines and starters are REALLY BIG! Try Caterpillar, John Deere, Detroit Diesel, Volvo, Cummins... you get idea. And I heard that Cat was attempting a carbon additive on their own.

     

    I would, in a heart beat, replace my AGM batteries with a PbC and would not look back at the added expense. The average life of a set of 4 group 31 batteries in the trucking industry is 18-24 months. I would pay twice or three times the price if it meant a difference when it comes to my "up time". A piece of equipment that is out of service cannot generate revenue or get the job done (time is money).

     

    Someone mentioned this earlier and I am in total agreement. This is a huge market for Axion with low hanging fruit and I wouldn't mind being Axion's case study for this market (hint)...
    25 Feb 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Tim, the PbC might be a very good fit for that application. I think you've led a discussion about trucks and extended hotel loads before, and I hope that someone, some company will start to look at that market soon--because the PbC could have great advantages there. But I don't think the PbC would be a simple drop-in replacement. We all need to remember that it is half-capacitor. Which means its output voltage declines with a non-trivial slope as energy is extracted from it. That may not matter if it's only Starter, Lights, and Ignition we're talking about, where the battery is never really asked to provide a deep well of energy for any length of time. In such a case then maybe 12Volt PbC would drop-in fine. But if the application involves servicing significant hotel loads for hours, then as the battery bank is drained, the output voltage is going to decline with Depth of Discharge. Which most loads don't tolerate well. So what will be needed is some voltage regulator circuitry to provide a flatter output to the loads, drawing from say a bank of 4x16Volt PbCs, in order to deliver a steady 48 volts to the loads over a full discharge cycle. I think it could probably work very well, showing greater durability and longer life than the equivalent AGM solution, but again, since additional electronics would be required, not truly a drop-in replacement...
    25 Feb 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    86, I was referring to big engines and starters that you will find in construction, agriculture and transportation equipment (hotel loads side for the moment). It seems like the perfect drop in replacement opportunity.

     

    I cannot speak for the other equipment but a typical class 8 truck has 4 group 31 LA batteries. One battery alone will start the engine but would have a short life. My assumption for the multiple batteries is to reduce the depth of discharge on each cranking cycle and to ensure enough power for a start in cold weather.

     

    Most of the people that I now replace ALL of their batteries once a year in the fall. I have some friends that have upgraded to AGM and are cautiously replacing them every other year. I have no clue as to how long a set of 4 PbC's would last but with a 2-3 second hit of 400-500 amps DC at each cranking cycle, I suspect it may be the last set of batteries I purchase for this purpose. With its cold weather advantage we might even be able to reduce the number to perhaps 2 PbC's?

     

    BTW, have you found the specifications that show voltage drop associated with SOC? The only reference that I have found is 10v at or around 80% SOC, which is as you say, a non-trivial slope...
    26 Feb 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    481' > "But if the application involves servicing significant hotel loads for hours, then as the battery bank is drained, the output voltage is going to decline with Depth of Discharge. Which most loads don't tolerate well."

     

    That may be the case. And, it may not. Reading one of the articles referenced on an APC or the Allen & Caron page on Axion media coverage web page, included a quote of TG stating that the PbC could be configured for greater power or for greater energy.
    Disclosure of more technical information on PbC performance would go some way toward answering the question.
    26 Feb 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/sujUdU Tim, this is from May 2010 I believe, but as far as I know, is one of the closest things we have that speaks to discharge curves... it may refer to an earlier version of the PbC though...

     

    And sorry for my confusion regarding hotel loads, I still recall a discussion about that application but totally see your need for a more robust SLI solution too...
    26 Feb 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    My last post (for today):

     

    I know some disagree with what I have written, but that's ok. My real point is that if we just spent half the energy doing worthwhile things instead of political bashing ...and we "axionista's" sent a note for every post here to every senator, representative, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercdedes, Chrysler etc. stating that we wanted a car with Start Stop tech powered by PbC from Axion (made in USA) we could probably have had it yesterday and maybe even funded with a grant...not a DOE loan.
    I think in GM's survey of college students on what they wanted in a car - there were a few thousand respondents that will somewhat determine what GM builds for it's next generation....I guarantee there are more axionista shareholders & people they influence than that. I would hope we could "unite" and use our power and time in better ways while exploiting the hard work that "bang" has done on building the website and the new "wiki" site....these have potential to be huge if we just use our power to point the "right" people to it and make them aware of what AXPW has to offer instead of bickering about a rebate or loan in a $15 trillion economy.
    What has been accomplished on this concentrator alone has the potential to change many, many things in the investment world for the better...if we just unite and use it and let it spread.
    Thanks all, and I do appreciate the effort, posts, and research sharing that everyone here does. Thanks for tolerating me too. Just have to vent at times.
    25 Feb 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, as a Libertarian, I have mentioned in the past my opinion as to government overstepping its Constitutional bounds.

     

    HOWEVER as an investor operating in an imperfect world, I do not confuse my ideological beliefs with reality.

     

    Oh, if we want to debate how it SHOULD work, that's fine, and there are some fun ideological wrinkles to explore there (even within the tiny Libertarian Party there are deep divides and a strange sort of "left" and "right" perspective)... But as JP often reminds us, this is a site devoted to investment data, and this is a blog of investors discussing things investible.

     

    As such, I freely admit that I often take into account the actions (and often more importantly, in INactions) of government. Any investor that fails to do this and who relies too heavily upon ideologically rose tinted glasses will pay the price (Queer-cuss springs to mind).

     

    Now, some will see something nefarious about an investor who doesn't hesitate to make profits from the idiocy of governments, but do we really have any choice? They have the police power of the state and we don't, after all.

     

    Back to the proximate topic, I personally find it obnoxious that my government knowingly made over $10billion in loans with the full expectation of seeing about 30% of them default... And NOW has the unmitigated gall to brag about the fact that now it looks like only 27% look to fail (so far)!

     

    I don't think much of companies that play the "low expectations" game of predicting lowball results when the prediction will do them no harm, and then timing their "surprise, beat expectations" headlines when it can fill their options and bonus checks. Seeing the government trying the same slimey routine doesn't reassure me.
    25 Feb 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Why do you find it obnoxious that the government expected 30% default rate? It would be an utter waste of money to shoot for 0% -- that'd mean they were funding safe products that can probably find funding elsewhere. The whole point of the R&D grants is to support research through funding more risky projects. Because they're more risky, a significant portion of them are going to default -- especially after a historic recession!

     

    As a libertarian, I understand you might prefer that the government never support R&D, but they do support work on projects that can't yet attract private money.
    25 Feb 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The big problem is that the money couldn't be used for necessary R&D. Instead, it had to be used to build physical facilities to deploy technologies commercially when what they really needed was more R&D money prior to commercialization.
    26 Feb 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, JP. This is really not a topic about ideology, but about idiocy. Failure to comprehend that an immature concept requires additional research rather than mandated construction is where the "duh" moment occurs. It is here where the danger of placing "true believers" in a position to hand out taxpayer funds (regardless WHICH specific ideology the handlers adhere to) becomes manifest. JP has often demonstrated that a 5th grader with a functional calculator could avoid these errors if they were but presented the facts.

     

    Back to the $10billion boondoggle, a 30% failure rate for Research means that the pursuit of our collective knowledge has been forwarded (for even negative results from research still has value by eliminating some theory so future focus can be made elsewhere). Answering these questions always has some value.

     

    Building infrastructure that simply dissolves our wealth and wastes man years without pushing forward the boundaries of knowledge a single foot is the real crime.
    27 Feb 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The empty plants can always be used for homeless shelters.
    27 Feb 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    "This is really not a topic about ideology, but about idiocy. Failure to comprehend that an immature concept requires additional research rather than mandated construction is where the "duh" moment occurs."

     

    I would agree that "idiocy" is an appropriate characterization of the policy, but I'm not sure that Voldemort fails/failed to comprehend that. If he didn't see it, I'm sure at least one of his lackeys would have pointed it out. Surely they cannot ALL be idiots. Rather, I think it was a conscious choice to ignore the fact, as new construction would undoubtedly have a more immediate and wide-spread affect of economic stimulation, which was his immediate goal. The sad truth is that the vast majority of those who bought into that policy would never see the *idiocy* of it unless it were brought to their attention. By simply stating the monies are being allocated to green energy R&D he gets bonus points from the green crowd, which he would not get if he publicly specified the money was being spent on construction. At the same time he reaps the more immediate *benefit* (if there really was any) of construction spending.

     

    Adding insult to injury is the fact that, not only was it a terribly inefficient spend in terms of *real* intellectual progress in the targeted area, but the fact is that while there may have been some economic benefit through increased jobs and material purchases, building new buildings undoubtedly had a counter-productive economic effect by exasperating an already dismal real estate market and supplanting would-be bank loans, had there been any true need/demand for those buildings. I have no idea how one would ever go about quantifying all of that, but it definitely wreaks of an equine stable.
    27 Feb 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    :-) Don't know that there are any potential "silver linings" in abandoned/slightly used wind turbine towers.
    27 Feb 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Recycling the generators will provide tons of raw material for the starter-generators used in heavy micro-hybrids.
    27 Feb 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    About that Tesla thing...

     

    What I don't get is why people aren't talking about the fact that EV's require a steady stream of power from the time they are built until the day they are decommissioned.

     

    In the case of the Tesla, that's 56 kWh used over 77 days or .73 kWh per day, 5.11 kWh per week, 21.9 kWh per month, 266.6 kWh per year, and 2,664.5 kWh per decade. That is .73 kWh consumed every day from the time the battery is first installed until it is removed or bricked. It doesn't matter if its plugged in, unplugged or the wheels are turning, it needs .73 kWh a day to stay alive (creepy huh?)

     

    How many "lumps" of coal are needed per .73 kWh?
    25 Feb 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The question that keeps running around my mind is "how many Roadsters were bought by car collectors who put them up on blocks in a warehouse and are now the proud owners of never-driven bricks on blocks?"
    25 Feb 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I know one Roadster owner that only drives the thing once or twice in a 3-6 month period. He is hot because the only thing that has saved his butt is dumb luck. He tends not to neglect the car but treats it like any other. I'll bet the search is on to find that "greater fool".
    25 Feb 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the reservations department.
    25 Feb 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    What do you do when two of the smartest guys in the blog send your comment adrift? Hope that Maya picks it up as the start of the next blog and gives it new life <smile>.

     

    Hey, .73 kWh is equivalent to ten 75 watt light bulbs burning constantly from birth till death of each Tesla. This certainly warrants some discussion doesn't it? (maybe not, maybe my numbers are wrong)
    25 Feb 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    No, it's about 1 30 Watt bulb burning constantly. You've calculated the number of Wh and divided by 75 watt bulbs, but in your calculation you'd only be burning them for 1 hour every day. Divide by 24 and you get the constant load in Watts :-)
    25 Feb 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter, yes we discovered that and thanks for pointing it out - again! <smile>
    26 Feb 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    0.73 kwh would be 730 watts for an hour. That would be about ten 75 watt bulbs burning for an hour.
    25 Feb 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "0.73 kwh would be 730 watts for an hour. That would be about ten 75 watt bulbs burning for an hour."

     

    I think you could light your whole house with LEDs day and night for the privilege of having a "plug in" Tesla. Imagine the light bulbs when we get to 20k Tesla's (if we do)...
    25 Feb 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When I ran the numbers, my back of the napkin calculation showed the Tesla Roadster has a 30-watt system maintenance load (720 wh per day). That figure is about 4x the 7 watt load an average car has for things like clocks and alarm systems, but it doesn't strike me as massive enough to criticize. There are far too many easy things to criticize in a toy like the Tesla and I worry that digging too deep into the minutiae might make me seem petty.
    25 Feb 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Even thought its likely the primary cause of the bricking? how many bricks would not be bricks given 44 weeks instead of 11?

     

    You could be right. It just seems like an enormous amount of energy wasted to keep the beast alive...
    25 Feb 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't disagree, but of all the wastes in a Tesla the maintenance loads are probably the least obnoxious.
    25 Feb 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "I don't disagree, but of all the wastes in a Tesla the maintenance loads are probably the least obnoxious."

     

    So, I guess an article on the "Plug" being the EV's life support system might be out of the question? been awhile since your last article <snicker>...
    25 Feb 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Tim, where did you get that number? I totally agree that it should be a non-trivial issue...
    25 Feb 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "Tim, where did you get that number?"

     

    Tesla Motors web site. "The pack weighs 990 pounds, stores 56 kWh of electric energy" and divide by the of days to brick which is 11 weeks or 77 days...

     

    http://bit.ly/tvsbiC
    25 Feb 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim. Still, I wonder how much of the drain is due to maintenance loads, and how much is due to self-discharge. ~30 watts sounds like a lot to me actually.
    25 Feb 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    I tend to agree with JP. Depending on where you live, .73 kwh per day would only be about 10 cents per day. The cost of a bricked battery is the far greater expense.
    25 Feb 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message