Seeking Alpha

Mayascribe's  Instablog

Mayascribe
Send Message
Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization. "Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love,... More
  • Axion Power Concentrator 74: Beginning March 5, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green! 194 comments
    Mar 5, 2012 10:35 AM

    A gem of an article by bangwhiz:

    Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!

    There are two important facts about the Axion PbC battery stockholders need to understand. First, it is not a commodity product like bananas or standard lead acid batteries. Its different. Secondly, being different engineers have to design new systems versus whatever they've done before if they are to benefit from its unique performance characteristics. That means change, and like the Eagles sang in their song Sad Cafe, "But things in this life change very slowly, if they ever change at all."

    People and organizations resist change unless they are either forced by some outside pressure, or the benefits to them are so great it is sufficient motivation alone. In the case of the PbC battery two organizations, Norfolk Southern and BMW, were drawn to the PbC battery because they had a problem the PbC might solve for them. Conventional commodity lead acid batteries were not up to the demands of stop start automobiles or battery powered electric locomotives. They were embracing and seeking change.

    Inventors have been waving magic beans in front of engineers eyes forever and often those magic beans lose their magic very quickly when engineers attempt to put them to practical use. Consequently, engineers are inherently skeptical of anything new until it has proven itself truly useful and reliable.
    Because the PbC battery has different electrical and performance characteristics engineers at a fork lift manufacturer, auto company, railroad, or any other company will need to design and build new electrical and or mechanical subsystems specifically engineered for the PbC battery before they can benefit from the PbC 's magic beans.

    BMW and Norfolk Southern possessed a strong enough interest in the PbC to commit to the time and money required to conduct preliminary test and evaluation programs followed by conceptual system designs, then building actual prototype systems made specifically for the PbC. That has been followed by more test and evaluation of the prototype systems and perhaps modifications to the prototypes leading to a final design. This activity would be coupled with trade off studies of any final PbC system design versus all the other possible solutions including detailed cost benefit number crunching studies. The engineers design and develop, the bean counters rule.

    Because of any non-disclosure agreements Axion has signed we do not know the status of most of the ongoing potential customer development programs for the PbC battery. Big organizations are big because they haven't made any big mistakes. It is an inherent slow process demanding patience from Axion and its stockholders. No one is more anxious to sell the the PbC battery and produce millions of PbC electrodes for the lead acid industry than Axion's management. It is just going to take the time it takes and not a minute less.

    Axion does have one product not subject to so much trial and tribulation - the PowerCube ranging in size from the mini-cube to 20MWs. You could almost write a design spec and purchase order on the back of a napkin. 10 MW's standby power for 30 minutes. Some have suggested Axion create some sample PowerCubes and give them to prestigious customers to try free of charge. You just "plug" them in. Not hardly. You need to run the power into and out of the PowerCube and that means site specific power distribution systems, building permits and construction. The installation may need to be fixed inside a building with all the design and construction that entails versus sitting outside in a trailer.

    I'm not an engineer so I am not going to try and describe what all a customer has to do to utilize a PowerCube, but it is going to be a lot more than "just plugging it in." Axion Power Concentrator commenter, DRich, who is an engineer, said, "I don't know if this covers it, but even in grid applications, 'samples' aren't all that practical. Even though the batteries are the same, it is easy to assume that is where 'sameness' ends. Each business will have a different power use profile and thus the inverters/transformers will be different almost every time. The BMS and/or the software may need to be tailored to each power profile. There is considerable cost in engineering associated with those 'samples'."

    Anyone who wants to buy whatever size PowerCube they want for all its benefits will need the services of an electrical engineering firm, or an in-house electrical engineering staff, to integrate the PowerCube into their facility. Then there are all the software control issues that will need to be sorted out for the specific customer's power usage profile. It isn't rocket science, but it is involved and takes time and money to accomplish. There is no free lunch. For my money I would rather Axion Power Director of Marketing, Vani Dantam, just sell someone a PowerCube than probably spend the same amount of time and money trying to convince a prospect to take one for free.

    An Axion Power sales rep can't just waltz into a E-Bike or forklift or UPS manufacturer and say, "We've got a special on PbC's today, 3 for the price of 2." Think about how many people in a prospective customer have to agree that building anything using the PbC - a product they've never seen or used before, with nothing sitting around they can just drop it into and then turn it on - is worth their time, money and effort?

    I have a lot of major account sales experience. I've been Vice President of Sales for a hardware design, development and prototype engineering company. I've been Manager of Business Development for a nuclear engineering firm. Most of the time when you go through the door of a large company representing a new product or service it is just like pushing in the side of a sponge, the minute you leave everything pops back out just like it was before. Nothing has changed. If you are lucky maybe whomever you talked to talks to their boss, who then talks to his boss, etc etc.

    When they want you they call you. Until then, you are just whistling Dixie. Then after they call you it isn't a done deal. Everybody up the line has to confirm the decision. The numbers have to work, the details have to mesh, the timing has to be right - and on top of that they have to like and respect you and your organization. They have to be true believers.

    So when you are screaming for Axion Power CEO, Thomas Granville, to just sell or give away Powercubes or PbC's, you need to understand the complexity of doing so, and the time required to achieve an actual sale. Engineers are methodical, cautious professionals who have their careers at risk every time they draw a line or circle. They are not going to endorse anything until they are certain of the cost and benefits.

    About a year ago I made a bold statement that I would like to get on the phone and sell PbC's on straight commission. I said I might starve for a while but I would eventually find somebody who would buy some PbC's. John Petersen said "I wish it were so simple." He was right and I was over reaching a bit. I just didn't realize the complexity involved in selling the PbC because it is different from existing commodity lead acid batteries.

    I fully recognize the sales and marketing issues now, and if you haven't thought about it before perhaps this article will lead you to further contemplation on the subject. I still wouldn't mind selling the PbC, but I would pack a lot bigger back pack full of food before I picked up the phone. I would also plan on it taking one or more years of work before I might get a sale. Its just a tough business being green if you are a frog, or selling a PbC battery nobody has ever used before.

    ####
    Hearty gratitudes to bangwhiz on behalf of the Axion Power Concentrator series!

    ####

    During the past seven months the Axion Power Concentrators have organically grown into a vast trove of information all things Axion Power related, all things battery related, all things Energy Storage Sector related.

    Between now and 15 years from now, the global expenditure on energy in every way energy is created, delivered, conserved and used will be in the trillions of dollars.

    Derived from well over 12,000 Axion Power Concentrator comments comes to us a compendium archive created by APC commenter bangwhiz. In short here is what it is, and does:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sitesites.google.com/site/axionpowersharehol.../ is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    It also contains a "New to Axion" section for people who are new to Axion and want a good starting point for their own due diligence. The site is updated daily as new links are posted to current comment threads. Links are posted by topic and can also be found using the "Search This Site" tab.
    The Comment Search Feature on the homepage is great for finding a comment you want to read again that would normally be lost in all the thousands of past comments. Simply search using a good key word or phrase, or any Google search term modifier, such as AND etc.

    New Feature: You can now search all past comments or just the past 3 months.

    Complimenting the Axion Power Concentrator Web Site is theAxion Power Wikispaces Web Site, "A repository of information about Axion Power International, Inc. and PbC® battery technology." APC commenter WDD has created an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts:

    http://axionpower.wikispaces.com/

    Want to ask, or have someone ask, Axion Power leadership a question during the forthcoming late March 2012 conference call? The following link led by bangwhiz is where you can write your question, maybe have it discussed and expanded upon before the conference call.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/667879-bangwhiz/279411-axion-power-2011-q4-march-conference-call-questions-list?source=kizur

    ####

    This is as troll free zone. All disruptive comments that violate Seeking Alpha's Terms of Use Agreement will be removed and permanently recorded in a separate Instablog.
Back To Mayascribe's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (194)
Track new comments
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from LT:

     

    Advise to go here and read....tons of new info on Clean Energy posted in the last 3-5 days. Too much to paste here.
    http://bit.ly/zcveTs

     

    ####

     

    Apparently, my death preceeds me! Thumbing up this Concentrator is greatly appreciated.
    5 Mar 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the previous Concentrator from LT:

     

    Advise to go here and read....tons of new info on Clean Energy posted in the last 3-5 days. Too much to paste here.
    http://bit.ly/zcveTs

     

    ####

     

    Thumbing up this Concentrator is greatly appreciated.
    5 Mar 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    No thumbs icon showing.
    5 Mar 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AB: I noticed that SA is currently doing a few changes with the "likes" and the Thumbs up feature. Nothing I can do from here.

     

    Appreciate your input.
    5 Mar 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    I have been away for about a week and tried to read over the last few concentrators. I also notice the stock has dropped a few pennies into the 37 cent range,

     

    Do you guys think this is bad news or are some people just losing their patience. I appreciate anyone giving me a quick catch up. Also is anyone of you planning on going to the shareholders meeting or gather most of your info from the CC..

     

    Still learning....Thanks
    5 Mar 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    Welcome back MAP:

     

    If I can get away, I am going to the shareholders meeting. Anyone else going ... please msg. me.

     

    I think the price is going down because of :
    1. No news/No catalyst
    2. Quercus & others doing normal selling
    3. Very few new buyers to offset the normal selling.

     

    Nothing to get worried about for now. It was stated earlier that this could happen until news comes out. Maybe even a few pennies lower where me and a few others will double down if it tests the lows again.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    As I wrote below we have been following the Russell 2000 pretty handily this year. The russell was up 8% for the year and then dropped last week and the week before along side us. I don't think this has anything to do with Axion's business. There are a lot of small caps down, Axion is no different.

     

    I noticed one day last week we had a 100 point drop in the DOW in the morning and as it rose and went into positive territory some of the 10K and 5K asks we kept seeing actually started disappearing. I think they were around the .402 and then a .405; both those disappeared and then we had a 10k at .4098 and it hovered around there for the rest of the day as the DOW finished more or less even.

     

    My point is to just keep in mind that AXPW is not completely impervious to the day-to-day rumblings of the overall market.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    It looks like some of the direct public offering investors may be flipping for a modest gain. While it can make sense to play that game for 10% or 20% gain in a week or two, it gets less and less attractive as the holding period gets longer. Since the only people who own stock at significantly lower prices are the Axionistas that bought at year end, I'd be surprised if the selling continued much longer.

     

    The next expected word from the company will be the year-end conference call at the end of March. The stockholders meeting won't happen till some time in the early summer, although several of us are making plans to attend.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    I agree with you that MOST of the flippers will hold now because of a few reasons, price and time. But with the markets being so unusual i expected the rich to turnover their shares much quicker to make a 10 to 20% profit within a week.

     

    Do you have any concern that if the stock climbed above 50 cents we would get more flippers?? They are making money by being smart and in todays market where else can you get that type of return so quickly...If i am off base please explain why.

     

    Thanks
    MAP
    5 Mar 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    Thanks, so nothing new...which is good...

     

    map
    5 Mar 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    In my experience investors are either flippers or holders. If an investor buys a block of stock with a short horizon and plans on selling at his first opportunity, he sells until he runs out of stock as long as his price expectations are met. When an investor is working for a tight spread, speed is what matters. If an investor buys a block of stock with a long horizon, he waits for that horizon. Stocks like Axion don't typically draw lots of flipper types because the market is so volatile, but there's really no way to know how many shares are in the hands of flippers until they run out.
    6 Mar 2012, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    Aone is taking a 10% hit right now -- apparently it did not live up to hype/expectations in latest revenue forecast.

     

    Russell 2000 down pretty good today as well. We seem to be following the rest of the market for the most part at this time.
    5 Mar 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    This just means more business potential for us:

     

    Competition Heats Up Among States for Clean Tech Dollars
    http://bit.ly/zXd6mo
    5 Mar 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Went to the website earlier this morning but no indication as to when the results will be released or when there will be a conference call.
    Seems to me in light of the previous issues that their PR people would be doing more to keep the investors in the loop.
    Share price is drifting down gently. But still down, I suspect because of no news rather than new investors dumping. Very frustrating!
    5 Mar 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    Once again Axion is not some phenomenon that floats on butterflies wings into higher realms wholly detached from the rest of the world market. Their might be days like that but to watch it moving down with everything else and then saying it is because of business developments or lack of does not make sense at this juncture.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AlbertinBermuda: Last year, the first CC was held on March 31. The calendar shapes up that this year the CC will be held on or around March 30.

     

    LT and MAP: I will be attending the July Shareholders' Conference. We need T-shirts! Especially if it's going to be baked potato hot like last year...102 degrees.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    I appreciate your comment.

     

    I look forward to the release and CC as they can be easily handled remotely. Technology permitting!

     

    The Shareholders Conference would be very interesting to attend. I strongly suspect that the vast majority of shareholders are US resident. I am not and I know of others who are not. Our holdings may be less than 300k but since we are outside the US it would be very helpful to know well in advance the date so as to facilitate attending the event.

     

    Any idea as to when that event might take place?

     

    As an aside I am an XL.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Albert: As a barometer, last year's Shareholders' Conference was held on July 20. I'm guessing we'll get about a three week notice of when this year's conference will be.

     

    Adding...the last SC was a very worthwhile trip. Last year, an Axion Power employee related that attendance was a little more than Axion leadership thought would show for the conference. I expect this year attendance will be another notch up.

     

    Believe tripleblack is working on some T-shirt designs.
    5 Mar 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Since this is a leap-year, the last possible date for the earnings release and conference call is March 29th. The date of the annual meeting is fixed in the Proxy Statement for the meeting. We'll have a pretty good idea when the preliminary proxy statement is filed and know for sure when the definitive is filed. I track the company's filings closely enough that I should be able to post the date within about 24 hours after the filings.
    5 Mar 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    APPX how many people were there if you had to guess??

     

    map
    5 Mar 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 45, or so.

     

    This year there will be more.
    6 Mar 2012, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    To offset some of the pessimism about share price, at 13:24 buys 82,820, sells 44,900 and buy:sell is 1.91:1.

     

    So even if we have some flippers and others selling, there seems to be folks interested at these levels.

     

    If we stay near this through the end of the day, it may bode well for stabilizing in this area.

     

    Or not.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Mar 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Heck fire HT, I don't know how anybody could reasonably complain about buying retail sized blocks at a premium of less than 10% to the large block paid in the direct public offering. It's always struck me as funny that people complain like crazy that somebody else got a better deal but worry and fret if the price stays too close to the bargain price. Personally all I can do is credit the fact that the period since the last conference call is 115 days and counting instead of the 90 days we see for all other periods.
    5 Mar 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    I agree about the premium. I've taped my trigger finger to my Levi's today to make sure I don't go hog-wild.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Mar 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    ROFL JP, the axionista's gonna cause u grey hair yet! It may even fall out!!! lol
    5 Mar 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I already have plenty of grey, but there's no risk of it falling out.
    5 Mar 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Were only talking about 35 thousand dollars of real trading right? Hardly a mass exodus when many on this board have stakes many multiples of that size. I'd be worried if we ever saw Millions of shares going off below the recent offering. Otherwise it looks like small players taking some skin out of the game. For many here who wanted in on the offering, now is their chance and they don't have to pony up 100K either. In fact they can buy only 100 shares if they prefer.
    5 Mar 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Friend Mitchell Rabin, who owns a NYC-based TV show and radio station, is going to have two interesting interviews tonight at 6:00 PM.

     

    Here's the scoop on what the interviews on "A Better World" will be about:

     

    Monday, Mar. 5, 6pm EST:

     

    Today's radio show is called The Green-Tech & Sustainability Roundtable. Mitchell will be joined by two guests. First is Richard Steinke, Inventor & CEO of an innovative windmill company an inventor “extraordinaire” of technologies, with a focus on finding solutions to global humanitarian & ecological problems & developing sustainable technologies. Holder of hundreds of patents, Steinke is a pioneer in the green, sustainability space.

     

    The second guest of the Green-Tech Roundtable is Ray Caamano, inventor & founder of Green Ray Technologies & Scientific Officer of KLD Energy Technologies.

     

    Having intensively studied Tesla's 2,000 patents and having experimented with new, amorphous materials, Ray developed an advanced electric motor/generator that represents an innovative shift from the usual methods of energy consumption and brings us closer to a sustainably green society.

     

    Today's Roundtable will show off some of the breakthrough technologies that are here now, bringing the future into the present.

     

    ####

     

    Below link will take you to the two interviews:

     

    Listen to the Radio show live every Monday, 6pm ESTat http://bit.ly/wDFfnm, upper right-hand corner.

     

    (Some also video streamed.) Listen on i-Tunes by Podcast for free.

     

    Watch the TV shows in Manhattan every Tuesday at 10:30PM EST on ch.57 (RCN: ch.84 / Fios: ch.35).

     

    Are you outside Manhattan? TV shows are web-simulcast right here at http://bit.ly/wDFfnm. Player is on home page.
    5 Mar 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    To augment what I considered to be a solid discussion on sales timing and expectations in concentrator 73, I thought it worth revisiting Rick Plano's transcript of his discussions with TG on 15th November, 2011.

     

    "I believe TG is calling all those who write the investor contact regarding this CC. He just called me and went over my questions. He said production capacity is not an issue that is affecting orders. The delay with automobile OEM's is because they are still testing to destruction to get comfortable with quality and durability as well as doing product testing in test cars. NS was delayed due to environmental reports they had to do in the particular test location. He still expects an order from NS but more likely to occur in first Q 2012 rather than this year. No comment on when automobile OEM orders may come but he said the tests cars are performing as he and others at Axion expected, which is to say, going well, so he does expect OEM orders over the next 24 months, which was as tight as I could get him to commit. He said they have a lot more confidence than ever in their ability to compete with the Power Cube and we can expect to hear news regarding that over the next year or so.

     

    I asked him about their relationships with both Exide and East Penn. He said the door is still open at Exide for them, but the restrictions Exide requires for a working relationship are onerous. He said the relationship with East Penn is excellent, they signed the MOU back in 2005 and have worked with them since then. I asked then why did East Penn form a subsidiary, Ecoult, to promote the UltraBattery. He sort of laughed and said, we wonder the same thing. Then he said that East Penn may have made a particularly keen deal with Furukawa with their UltraBattery contract that gives them some financial incentives to promote the UltraBattery even though the Axion battery is better. He would not comment on why he feels that way or what those terms might be, just that he is confident that Axion's tech is better and that they remain on excellent terms with East Penn.

     

    He said that cash flow is an issue but the management team has various options for funds that are existent now, and will only get better with commercial orders that he anticipates to come in the first quarter of 2012 (Norfolk). So he is careful about upcoming cash needs but not overly worried about their ability to procure financing when they need it. He acted like this is a non-issue. I hope he is right since the last round of financing knocked the stock in half."

     

    My personal take away from this piece is that the horizon for significant orders events is longer that seems to be posited in general discussions here. Until those orders are received, circa 16-24(?) months from now, all we can expect is some evidence of advancement of the plan, that testing is going well, is expanding in scope, and that the possibility of orders remains real in the different sectors of interest, grid, auto and rail. My own bet is that at least one of these will be realized. It is tough to wait, but easier if expectations are not inflated and repeatedly missed.

     

    The other reality to get one's head around is that there will likely eventually be close to 200MM shares out there to fully fund manufacturing cap ex.

     

    Some may view this as overly gloomy, but how I see it.
    5 Mar 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    There are 115 million shares outstanding. The board will not approve significant capital spending without clear customer demand to justify the facilities. Since it's impossible for a public company to have orders that justify massive capital spending without announcements that describe the customer demand, I have a hard time imagining a need to sell another 85 million shares to support capital spending. You can't have a survival stock price and rapid growth spending at the same time. They're intellectually inconsistent and mutually exclusive.
    5 Mar 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Absolutely, I think we all recognize that management of Axion are a thoughtful, careful bunch that would not pursue a policy of capital expenditure without good cause. And while there will undoubtedly be increasing stock valuations accompanying orders, I can see the company having to return to the trough one more time for survival cash before these arrive. If that is the case, then is something approaching a final 200MM outstanding not a fair possibility to equip, staff and operate 10 state-of-the art electrode lines ($50MM?). There is a history here of raises well below market and we are coming from a base (let's hope this is the base) of $0.35, which may serve as an anchorage bias.

     

    But if you consider 200MM to be an overly pessimistic scenario, what would be your best prediction at this juncture for total number of shares outstanding required to fulfill the electrode output potential for the existing sites?
    5 Mar 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    I would think 85M more shares would raise anywhere from 30 to 50M dollars worst case. I'm not sure why Axion would need that kind of cash unless future orders were already announced.

     

    As it is the last raise bought us 12-18 months more runway and that was for only 9M dollars in proceeds. If capital spending needs going near 15M annually we must assume high growth. I don't see a scenario where revenue growth and a low stock price coexist well. At least that's how I see it from my fifty cent view. =)
    5 Mar 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Axion had adequate operating cash through Q-2 and enough survival cash to carry it through Q-4 before the financing. My guess is that the financing extended both runways by a full year.

     

    Right now the market is skittish. It didn't like the recent offering price and it doesn't like the silence from New Castle. That has a lot of people sitting on the sidelines watching. While they watch the price will move sideways.

     

    It also has a lot of stockholders imagining the worst.

     

    I remain convinced that the price problem over the last two years was due to a severe supply and demand imbalance and even if we assume that much of the recent offering went into weaker hands, today's supply and demand imbalance is only a shadow of what we faced a year ago.

     

    I can't imagine a scenario where there will be no important news for the next 12 months. Big automotive orders may be a 2013 event, but Axion has been far too good at pulling rabbits out of the hat at regular intervals for me to believe that nothing important will happen.

     

    Norfolk Southern will rebuild the NS 999 this year and it will also build a new road locomotive. It's going to be damned sure that those locomotives are green triumphs for NS that were made possible by the PbC battery. Beyond a select few, nobody pays attention to what Axion has to say. Everybody pays attention to what NS has to say.

     

    Between the PowerCube, Rosewater, a new in-house marketing team and two first-tier testing relationships that already have over two years under their belts, I'm confident that something will happen this year to shake the watchers off the fence. I won't predict what or when something will happen, but I am certain that it will.

     

    There is an immense difference between recognizing known business dynamics for what they are and imagining potential disaster scenarios. I expect the year end conference call will calm a lot of current jitters.
    5 Mar 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    Yahoo finance now has a marker date down for next earnings release--26 March... a mere three weeks from today, sojourners. Looking up to the west, that line of mountains draws closer. Look down at the dusty desert plain, it seems endless. But it isn't. Slowly, slowly, the wheels cut it, foot by agonizing foot. The plodding oxen mark it, as each day the tracks lengthen behind. As all the long ground already covered slowly sinks away. Sunrise, sunset, Again! and nothing, once more seems to happen... yet that line of hills crawls nearer still. If only by inch. Do not despair wagoneers! The road shall rise ere long. Stay with the train! Though throats parch and knees stiffen, just keep them wheels a rollin', jus' keep them boots a trudgin', keep them hymn's a hummin'... that golden day's a comin', When our Gen3 line gets runnin', and so with all your wit and cunnin', don't get left behind! Ye Axionistas on the trail, no more speak of fail! Keepin' fast to that third rail, Let's Ride! ;)
    5 Mar 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    Found this Princeton Power presentation - check slides 3 and 5 discussing the Axion/PJM project with Princeton Power power control electronics ...

     

    http://bit.ly/A79vvZ
    5 Mar 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Nice find, a bit of marketing for Axion.
    6 Mar 2012, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. One more angle to get a push from. Every time Princeton's marketing department gives this presentation, it gets the Axion/PJM solution in front of another group of eyes.
    6 Mar 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    i am buying more axpw and all i (hope to) get is this lousy t-shirt
    5 Mar 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Do we need a kids line of clothing now?

     

    My daddy/mommy went to this fancy place called the stock market and bought lots of shares of big powerful company that he/she says will pay for my college education and now I'm supposed to call him/her an Axionista and wear this lousy t-shirt.
    6 Mar 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Jon,
    You may have something there! You know that crowd, Abercrombie & Fitch, LuLu Lemon yoga wear, etc. You can be sure that the kids will have nothing less than the very best.
    7 Mar 2012, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    Demand spikes for zero-energy-cost homes
    http://yhoo.it/AEaKKU
    6 Mar 2012, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    7:35 AM Ford (F) says that its Focus electric car was certified by the EPA at a fuel efficiency rating of 105 miles per gallon. The Focus Electric costs just under $40K, while buyers qualify for a $7.5K tax credit and can obviously realize a considerable amount of savings in fuel costs. [Consumer] Comment
    6 Mar 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    Fuel Cells

     

    BMW in talks with GM on future technologies: CEO
    http://reut.rs/yQ8yjv

     

    thanks to Andrew Shapiro over on stock talk for the find.
    6 Mar 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    WALTHAM, Mass., March 6, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- A123 Systems (Nasdaq:AONE), a developer and manufacturer of advanced Nanophosphate lithium iron phosphate batteries and systems, today announced production contracts for the company's 12V Engine Start Battery with three leading European automakers, including McLaren Automotive for the MP4-12C and a major German OEM that will use the battery in a 2013 model year passenger vehicle. A123's Engine Start Battery is designed as a replacement for absorbent glass mat (AGM) and other lead acid batteries, providing a lighter-weight, longer-lasting solution for micro-hybrid functionality that enhances vehicle performance, improves fuel economy and lowers total cost of ownership. A123 is also developing next-generation designs that are intended to further reduce the cost of its Engine Start Battery to make it applicable to a wider range of vehicle applications.
    "The market for micro hybrids is growing rapidly, especially as automakers develop systems to help them meet higher government standards for fleet fuel efficiency. We believe that our lithium ion Engine Start Battery enables OEMs to maximize the performance and improve the fuel economy of their vehicles by providing a move advanced, lighter-weight and longer-lasting replacement for AGM lead acid batteries," said Jason Forcier, vice president of the Automotive Solutions Group at A123. "We are gaining significant momentum in this market through our production contracts with McLaren and two other major European automakers, and we believe that we'll be able to further enhance our solution to enable additional automakers to cost-effectively deploy our Engine Start Battery across a wider range of passenger and commercial vehicles."
    According to Lux Research, the global market for micro-hybrids is projected to reach more than 39 million vehicles in 2017 and create a $6.9 billion market for energy storage devices. A123's Engine Start Battery is designed as a drop-in replacement for AGM and other lead acid batteries, leveraging the company's automotive-class lithium ion cells to deliver a number of significant economic, performance and environmental benefits for passenger and commercial vehicle applications, including:
    Greater Charge Acceptance Rate A123's lithium ion Engine Start Battery is designed with a greater charge acceptance rate than AGM lead acid, enabling it to charge up to 10 times more quickly and contributing to a fuel economy improvement of 50 percent or greater compared with lead acid as reported by customers.
    Reduced Weight A123's Engine Start Battery weighs less than half of comparable lead acid batteries, helping to reduce vehicle emissions and enhance driving performance.
    Extended Life The extended calendar and cycle life inherent to A123's Nanophosphate technology enable the micro hybrid to last at least twice as long as AGM lead acid batteries, resulting in minimal maintenance and lower total cost of ownership.
    Minimal Environmental Impact A123's Engine Start Battery offers reduced total carbon emissions compared to lead acid and do not contain lead or any other hazardous materials. By replacing lead acid batteries with A123's solutions, customers can reduce the environmental impact of their systems, helping its customers promote their green initiatives and sustainability goals.
    About A123 Systems
    A123 Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:AONE) is a leading developer and manufacturer of advanced lithium-ion batteries and energy storage systems for transportation, electric grid and commercial applications. The company's proprietary Nanophosphate lithium iron phosphate technology is built on novel nanoscale materials initially developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is designed to deliver high power and energy density, increased safety and extended life. A123 leverages breakthrough technology, high-quality manufacturing and expert systems integration capabilities to deliver innovative solutions that enable customers to bring next-generation products to market. For additional information please visit http://bit.ly/ABkP9a.
    The A123 Systems, Inc. logo is available at http://bit.ly/wf14Ai
    Safe Harbor Disclosure
    This press release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors including statements with respect to the anticipated features, capabilities, benefits, customer relationships and high volume production of the Engine Start Battery, the expected demand for the Engine Start Battery, delays in customer deployment of more energy-efficient technologies, delays in the development of next generation designs of the Engine Start Battery, the market for lead acid battery replacement solutions for vehicle applications. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements are: delays in the development, production and delivery of A123's Engine Start Battery, delays in customer and market demand for and adoption of the Engine Start Battery, adverse economic conditions in general and adverse economic conditions specifically affecting the markets and geographies in which A123 operates, and other risks detailed in A123 Systems' quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2011 and other publicly available filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements reflect A123's expectations only as of the date of this release and should not be relied upon as reflecting A123's views, expectations or beliefs at any date subsequent to the date of this release.
    CONTACT: A123 Systems PR Contact:
    A123 Systems
    Dan Borgasano
    617-972-3471
    dborgasano@a123systems...
    Edelman
    Courtney Kessler
    212-277-3720
    courtney.kessler@edelm...
    A123 Systems IR Contact:
    ICR, LLC
    Garo Toomajanian
    617-972-3450
    ir@a123systems.com Image: A123 Systems, Inc. Logo
    Source: A123 Systems, Inc. News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    6 Mar 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Stories like this one always intrigue me. The McLaren MP4-C12 is their top of the line street supercar. The odds are pretty good that idle elimination is not a high priority strategy for them.

     

    At least one German automaker (Porsche) has been offering a lithium-ion starter battery for racing types for the last couple years. The Porsche pitch had nothing to do with fuel efficiency and everything to do with weight reduction in warm weather, since it won't work in cold weather.

     

    The third design win isn't described by vehicle type or country of origin.

     

    There is nothing in the release that suggests any of the three design wins has anything to do with a micro-hybrid, but they use them as a spring-board to explain that their nifty new starter battery:

     

    * Has up to 10 times the DCA of an AGM battery (just like the PbC does for a quarter of the cost);
    * Has a far longer cycle-life than an AGM battery (just like the PbC does for a quarter of the cost);
    * Weighs half as much as an AGM battery (while the PbC only saves 30% of the weight for a quarter of the cost);
    * Is somehow more environmentally friendly than a fully recyclable lead-acid battery.

     

    Links to information about potentially competitive products can be interesting, but they're far more interesting if you consider what they say and what they don't say
    6 Mar 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    I see them getting their backs pushed up against the wall, and again and again they release PR stuff like this to soften the blow to their stock price. They lost 10% yesterday and magically new contracts appear the very next day. Remember back in Dec when they went on a PR blitzkrieg for a week as their stock price was plummeting? Then again this year the very day after they get downgraded to .50 by think equity they release another PR.

     

    I see a desperate company trying to hang on for dear life. Not that the contracts are not real, just that their significance to A123's bottom line is just not going to help them much.

     

    It was also interesting this line from the release in the very first paragraph: "A123 is also developing next-generation designs that are intended to further reduce the cost of its Engine Start Battery to make it applicable to a wider range of vehicle applications."

     

    This offers a little insight that current costs of manufacturing the battery are still wait out of line for a profitable product. Furthermore, they have been developing Lihtium-ion batteries for years and they have never realized these phantom "reduce cost" statements they have made again and again.
    6 Mar 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    all these links do is prove how much education is needed at a consumer level. as the consumer isn't dictating what actually ends up in a car, i cannot understand why AONE bothers releasing the info.
    6 Mar 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    tragic...agreed....AND "thinking", educated...influential politicians...
    6 Mar 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    "Nanophosphate technology enable the micro hybrid to last at least twice as long as AGM lead acid batteries, resulting in minimal maintenance and lower total cost of ownership."

     

    hmm ...
    6 Mar 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The surprising bit is that they're only claiming twice the cycle-life of AGM where the more typical lithium-ion claims run to five times the cycle life. That particular change suggests that their lithium-phosphate may not stand up well to very high rate shallow discharge applications at a constant partial state of charge.
    6 Mar 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    JP - just to cement this thought. If AGM lasts approximately 4-6 months of normal use in a micro-hybrid, then this A123 battery would last 8-12 months at a much higher cost? (I am pulling these numbers from memory so please correct me where I am wrong)

     

    If that's the case - with respect to the micro-hybrid market - who cares?
    6 Mar 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    It all depends on how you define battery life.

     

    If you go back to the BMW-Axion presentation, they tested the AGM battery through 20,000 cycles even though it lost over 90% of its dynamic charge acceptance within 5,000 cycles.

     

    If you define battery failure as the point where it won't start a car, AGM probably lasts for three or maybe even four years. If you define battery failure as the point where it won't carry the mechanical systems at optimal efficiency, AGM probably lasts three or four months.

     

    I'd be surprised if A123's engine start battery didn't work effectively for several years, but since the PbC will do the same thing it all boils down to a question of system cost because the law of economic gravity will not be ignored.
    6 Mar 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I think the Axion graph can be a bit misleading with their charting of the Top of Charge Current - it makes the traditional AGM look a bit worse than if an average charging current was plotted; the key issue (which they discuss in their white paper last year) is the time to recharge (and therefore the average charging current). If you look at it on this basis, the average charge acceptance of a standard battery is around 40A at 5,000 cycles (or recharge time of around 80s), and flatlines at around an average of 25A (corresponding to approx a 120s recharge time).

     

    Axion has near perfect charge acceptance at the OEM target of 100A, so a 4x on an average basis. The key benefit, if i understand the presentation correctly, is that a car with a normal AGM can get a fuel reduction claim of 2-4%, whereas a car using an Axion product could claim over 10% reduction.

     

    I've spoken to energy storage guys at the automakers, and they view Li-ion as a niche technology for high end brands where money money is no object (relative to the mass market brands), so would expect the likes of A123 to mop up some of these niche plays, but won't support much of a market cap!
    6 Mar 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Festein: cogent thoughts for folks like me.

     

    Thanks for joining in and welcome!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Mar 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    festein,
    Appreciate your thoughts. Especially when you can quote energy storage guys at the automakers.
    7 Mar 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    A bit dated but some good Grid Storage information to help fill some gaps...

     

    http://bit.ly/yVlXYV

     

    (Better than watching the AXPW stock charts today)
    6 Mar 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    Not that dated, 9/1/11, and well worth a read. Thanks for the link.

     

    I note East Penn gets a mention about 2/3rds of they way through, down in the attachments (pg 47 in my reader?).

     

    The only criticism I had of the document, other than not mentioning Axion of course, is that it seems to assume that there will be enough EVs sold to make investigation of using second-hand Li-ion batteries a worthwhile investigation.

     

    Maybe, but in our lifetime? I can't say. But that is a really big leap from current levels and either they know something we don't' (Chu is on their side?) or they are being overly optimistic with some of our tax dollars.

     

    I would like to see that portion of their efforts deferred until it appears likely that a *possible* payoff is available by sufficient EV sales supporting a long-term flow of second-hand batteries.

     

    Assuming a multi-year Li-ion battery lifetime in EVs, they would still have lots of time to evaluate and beging to implement as utility is demonstrated.

     

    Thanks again for that link,
    HardToLove
    6 Mar 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    The "dated" part was mostly in reference to the piece you picked up on. The author seems convinced the PHEV will play a vital role in the grid storage -> "34,000 PHEV batteries are required to shift 4 hours of wind from a single 100 MW farm from night to day." which today, I agree, seems pretty far fetched.

     

    It was the East Penn mention that made this an "UltraBattery" day. While Axion does not appear with regularity in grid storage project information, the UltraBattery does. This helps put lead/carbon (PbC) on the map but puts Axion riding on Ecoult's shirt tail.

     

    Perhaps the most interesting find for me today was PowerPyramid from EaglePicher. They blend multiple chemistry's (Li-Ion, Sodium Sulpher and Lead Acid) into a single solution that matches the battery type to the load type. Unfortunately, they do not mention lead/carbon...

     

    http://bit.ly/x1S8Iw
    6 Mar 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • superwedgie
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Other than 'the market will do, what the market will do" do those of you who understand the moving averages etc, expect that we are close to the basement ?

     

    I mistakenly assumed that at .40c and on low volume, we were fairly solidly there,and any increase in volume (300k + )would perhaps see the odd cent increase.

     

    I am sure the major sellers are dwindling and am hopeful, that when the good news comes we can start to breathe a little easier
    6 Mar 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    If you look at charts of comparative investments in small caps you will see that Axion has not fared bad at all over the past few weeks since the raise.

     

    Basements tend to get dug deeper when the entire market is down. Recently, I have learned not to put a floor on much of anything. As long as it is not because of negative business developments, I don't believe their is much to worry about. Of course, if your risk appetite is not prepared for small cap volatility you might not be very hungry right now.
    6 Mar 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • superwedgie
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jakurtz, I think you answered my question there.
    I expect it is simply small cap volatility.

     

    Has anyone heard of any possible DOE grant money coming available? I was hoping that they could throw some towards something proven, and not the Lithium impossible dream.
    6 Mar 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Only lithium ion need apply to DOE.
    6 Mar 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    14:11:55 First 50 trades buy 38,802, sell 299,357. Buy:sell 1:7.715.

     

    Had a 100K "sell" @ $0.37 at 10:06:57. Other than that a decent mix of 1x20K, several >=10K and lots of smaller. I wonder if the 100K was the same folks that did the 200K the other day.

     

    Price holding up well considering.

     

    Tonight's (and yesterday's) daily short sales might be interesting.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Mar 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Agree HTL "Price holding up well considering." Holding flat this late in the day -- to yesterday's close is remarkable given today's bloodbath.
    6 Mar 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    great day to buy stocks/ sell puts
    6 Mar 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Since we all are tick, tick, tick waiting for any old morsel of news, I'd though I'd put up a pretty cool "connections vignette" I posted a couple of years ago.

     

    I think you'll love this one, DRich!

     

    ####

     

    The Space Shuttle and the Horse's Rear End

     

    Say friend, did you know that the US Standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8 1/2 inches.

     

    That's an exceedingly odd number. Why was that gauge used?

     

    Because that's the way they built them in England, and the US railroads were built by English expatriates.

     

    I see, but why did the English build them like that?

     

    Because the first railway lines were built by the same people who built the pre-railroad tramways, and that's the gauge they used.

     

    Well, why did they use that gauge in England?

     

    Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing.

     

    Okay! Why did their wagons use that odd wheel spacing?

     

    Because, if they tried to use any other spacing the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads. Because that's the spacing of the old wheel ruts.

     

    So who built these old rutted roads?

     

    The first long distance roads in Europe were built by Imperial Rome for the benefit of their legions. The Roman roads have been used ever since.

     

    And the ruts?

     

    The original ruts, which everyone else had to match for fear of destroying their wagons, were first made by the wheels of Roman war chariots. Since the chariots were made for or by Imperial Rome they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing.

     

    Thus, we have the answer to the original question. The United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8 1/2 inches derives from the original specification for an Imperial Roman army war chariot.

     

    And the motto of the story is Specifications and bureaucracies live forever.

     

    So, the next time you are handed a specification and wonder what horse's ass came up with it, you may be exactly right. Because the Imperial Roman chariots were made to be just wide enough to accommodate the back-ends of two war-horses.

     

    So, just what does this have to do with the exploration of space?

     

    Well, there's an interesting extension of the story about railroad gauge and horses' behinds. When we see a Space Shuttle sitting on the launch pad, there are two big booster rockets attached to the sides of the main fuel tank. These are the solid rocket boosters, or SRBs. The SRBs are made by Thiokol at a factory in Utah. The engineers who designed the SRBs might have preferred to make them a bit fatter, but the SRBs had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site.

     

    The railroad from the factory runs through a tunnel in the mountains. The SRBs had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than a railroad track, and the railroad track is about as wide as two horses' behinds.

     

    So a major design feature of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system was originally determined by the width of a horse's ass.
    6 Mar 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Yes, I like that. Amazing what can happen when a couple of horse asses get together and how long they can influence things.
    6 Mar 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    What kind of horses?
    7 Mar 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Certainly not Clydesdales with those dimensions! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    7 Mar 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >H.T. Love ... That is a funny thing to imagine.
    7 Mar 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Can't haul much beer in a chariot. :-)
    7 Mar 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Curious to see if we have large volume toward end of trading session.
    6 Mar 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Coda Automotive customer deliveries of electric car in March, and a brief test drive

     

    http://bit.ly/wLYyiB

     

    California only.

     

    "The 10 year, 100,000 mile battery warranty is also "best in class", as is the 14.1 cubic feet of trunk space. Its price (MSRP) per mile of electric range is a "best in class" $292/mile versus $352/mile for the Nissan Leaf, $392/mile for the Ford Focus Electric, and a whopping $428/mile for the Mitsubishi i-Miev."

     

    On the other hand, there's this:

     

    http://bit.ly/xhcG0y

     

    "Hafei is a subsidiary of China's state-owned Changan Automobile Group, which is in turn owned by the China South Industries Group Corp. — or the China Weaponry and Equipment Group, as it is known closer to home. "
    6 Mar 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Appreciate those links. I'm going to put them over in my little UQM blog since UQM has a heavy dependency on CODA.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Mar 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    VW teases the future (with VERY few specifics) with "BlueMotion Technologies" (a new Google Alert term for me now)

     

    Starts here: http://bit.ly/w67wNC

     

    Innovations: (brief mentions of recuperation and start-stop)
    http://bit.ly/z48ACw

     

    Sadly, no pictures "under the hood."
    7 Mar 2012, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    We are not the only ones trying to find battery plays:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Mar 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the good link LT. Appreciated the comments you and Jakurtz added to the article.
    7 Mar 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Good link LT...
    1)...more anecdotal evidence of expanding battery interest
    2)...more anecdotal affirmation of AONE "under the hood" challenges...no pun intended.
    Always healthy for these links for confirmation and different ideas...
    7 Mar 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    awesome stuff. i like demographics too. double rainbow!
    7 Mar 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    A little jump start on JP's Geneva Car show:
    Geneva Motor Show: 10 cool and not-so-cool cars
    http://bit.ly/zR4sXj
    7 Mar 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 3/06/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Combination of buy:sell and short percentages suggest one or more of: shares backing prior sell orders are flowing into market-makers; new sell orders continuing to come in; trades going off inter or intra-broker at successively lower and narrower price spreads, although it's looking like the "lower" part may be abating.

     

    We need to see "normalcy" with daily short sales running nearer that 3x% range and buy:sell being more balanced before we can look for some price appreciation.

     

    A discouraging point is the pattern on the daily chart which, after the step down from the prior descending triangle, continues that pattern at a slightly lower range.

     

    An encouraging point is that the low has remained steady for three days and the fall in the highs has been minimal in spite of the (apparent) selling pressure suggested by the buy:sell ratio. Combined with a possible "floor" at $0.35, if we accept that it won't fall below the 2/1 issue price, there's a reasonable chance that the move out of this pattern takes a small step up (1/3rd of the time) rather than down (2/3rds of the time) as it did last time it broke out of the pattern.

     

    However, nothing on the charts supports this right now.

     

    0224 Vol 0239219, Sht 0000500 00.21% LHC 0.4001 0.4150 0.4025 b:s 1:1.45
    0227 Vol 0068550, Sht 0016300 23.78% LHC 0.3902 0.4150 0.4150 b:s 1:2.17
    0228 Vol 0368615, Sht 0055339 15.01% LHC 0.3900 0.4190 0.4000 b:s 1:4.68
    0229 Vol 0303035, Sht 0044000 14.52% LHC 0.3880 0.4099 0.3950 b:s 1:6.50
    0301 Vol 0093200, Sht 0000400 00.43% LHC 0.3810 0.4099 0.4049 b:s 1:1.57
    0302 Vol 0447125, Sht 0059250 13.25% LHC 0.3700 0.4050 0.4000 b:s 1:4.35
    0305 Vol 0172190, Sht 0034520 20.05% LHC 0.3700 0.3998 0.3899 b:s 1.84:1
    0306 Vol 0376877, Sht 0088870 23.58% LHC 0.3700 0.3900 0.3850 b:s 1:5.02

     

    MHO,
    HrdToLove
    7 Mar 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Here's a twist: a 100-share trade at the low, $0.37. Is the market-maker trying to do what JP has suggested a couple of times, accumulate, in response to an incoming large buy?

     

    Now if I'm market-maker I want to make folks think price is falling again so they will sell and I can buy those shares at a low price.

     

    I'm not selling to them.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S ha! As I wrote, a 100-share at $0.383, the offer, went off. maybe just trying make some volume rgardless of direction?
    7 Mar 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    With all the respect it deserves, I know how it goes Genove our representative?
    7 Mar 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    "Energy Storage called on to Maintain Solar Flow." This appears to be a lithium ion test project.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ala2IR
    7 Mar 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    More on the Lithium ion grid storage project in Arizona:
    http://bit.ly/zw5fDs
    7 Mar 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/xs1ioH

     

    http://bit.ly/wz5sgm

     

    Looks like Cabot is trying to get into the carbon paste game ... compliments of indelco on the yahoo board.
    7 Mar 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that they offer performance enhancement for both Lead-acid and Lithium ion.
    Regarding L-ion, they claim they can improve performance and lower manufacturing costs (indeed cost is the problem) but I did not see any numbers to validate the claims.
    7 Mar 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Cabot makes the paste and sells it to a battery manufacturer, who sells it to an OEM who has to design, build and test a battery, then has to convince an OEM to begin a testing program.

     

    Alternatively, if they could build a drop-in unit, maybe someone could sell them at wal-mart to replace a few of those 3 month old start-stop batteries. Maybe have a late-night infomercial.

     

    Start-stop batteries only have last long enough to get through the Government mileage test. After that, the manufacture gets credit for better mileage. Most consumers won't be able to tell the difference at 5-15% less mpg. Fleet MPG is based on the test results, not actual user performance.
    7 Mar 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    For now the automakers only have to worry about getting their window stickers. As micro-hybrid becomes standard equipment across product lines in response to CO2 reduction mandates, it will be classified as emissions control equipment and the green-wash game will be OVER in the blink of an eye. As a practical matter, the rules won't change until a better battery technology is available at relevant scale because regulators never require the regulated to do the impossible (or for that matter economically impossible). But the time is coming and with automakers going to micro-hybrid technology in record numbers I tend to think it's coming sooner rather than later.
    7 Mar 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    They also seem interested in Graphenes:
    http://bit.ly/A8QZvv

     

    "Cabot is interested in building a network of potential collaborators in both industry and academia to continue to advance our capabilities. If you are interested in using graphenes or are working in this area and would like to know more about our plans, please contact us."
    7 Mar 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    D,

     

    *If* they can decrease the cost by a minimum of 30%, can they also improve the cycle life of that battery so that it will last, I don't know, maybe a year or two in a micro-hybrid in a S/S capacity? Cost of the PbC is one of its advantages, but the bigger one, IMO, is that it can actually do the job and still be around tomorrow to tell the story.
    8 Mar 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Well, the best looking buy:sell in a while, albeit on volume too low to give strong indications.

     

    On 19 trades only, buy 21.85K, sell 28.75K giving a ratio of ~1:1.32.

     

    This, and the volume combined with some move towards normal short sales percentage yesterday, suggests that we may be in some final stage of consolidation.

     

    But, awaiting news can drag this phase out a very long time.

     

    Or maybe it just seems so to those of us doing the waiting. :-)

     

    Anyway, lets hope the ratio stays more normal from here forward.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Mar 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    "But, awaiting news can drag this phase out a very long time.

     

    Or maybe it just seems so to those of us doing the waiting. :-)"

     

    Maybe instead of saying "It's like watching paint dry.", we should coin a new phrase and say "It's like waiting for battery testing to finish" or "It's like waiting for batteries to sell" ? :-)
    8 Mar 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Aw, come on Egg! Be more positive!

     

    "It's like waiting for an Axion PbC to reach end-of-life or fail" would be a better analogy.

     

    Or maybe, "Waiting for 500,000 PbC s/s test cycles to complete with *still* no reported degradation in charge acceptance".

     

    There must be a dozen appropriate analogies we could come up with!

     

    Get creative! :-))

     

    In good fun (at least for *me*),
    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Very funny HTL! ...and ditto! Just good fun here as well.
    8 Mar 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Energy Storage Bill introduced in House (after something similar in Senate late last year)

     

    http://aol.it/xfvRGR

     

    "The technology appears to have bipartisan acceptance, even in today's deeply divided Congress, Hamilton said. Still, ESA is realistic about the bill's chances of passing Congress before the election. Hamilton handicaps it at "about zero."

     

    That's okay, though, she said, because ESA's intent at this stage is to use the legislation to educate lawmakers and the public about energy storage. "Most people don't know what energy storage is," she said. The bill is meant to make it "become part of the conversation" when Congress does takes up energy policy agai"

     

    "You can't put a natural gas-fired peaker in the middle of Manhattan," Hamilton said. " You can put a battery anywhere."
    7 Mar 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Realted "kudos:"
    NY-BEST Applauds the Bipartisan Gibson- Thompson Bill to Foster Advanced Energy Storage Innovation that will Improve the Nation’s Electric Grid

     

    February 29, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/wyEFZN

     

    NY-BEST is holding a conference today and tomorrow in Troy, NY:
    http://bit.ly/y8bqha

     

    "The New York Battery and Energy Storage Technology Consortium (NY-BEST™) is a rapidly growing, industry-led, private-public coalition of entrepreneurial, academic, corporate, and federal partners building a vibrant, world-class advanced battery and energy storage sector from R&D to commercialization based in New York State."

     

    http://www.ny-best.org
    7 Mar 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    "He envisions costs for batteries falling the way costs for solar panels have, and says the tax credit would hasten the price drop."
    8 Mar 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Based on what I *think* I've learned from JP et al, I can't imagine battery costs following the price trajectory of solar panels, where we had *lots* of Chinese added capacity coming into the market over an extended period and *substantial* improvements in technology in a relatively short time for both technology and manufacturing processes.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. Listening to those here who know more than I leads me to conclude we are not likely to see a significant price drop in the short term. If we did, that is something I'd love to see as a clean tech fan, but I don't imagine it would be good for investors in battery companies.
    8 Mar 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    http://yhoo.it/xK24UV rutro shaggy.

     

    Hmm, maybe this is why my Exide brand boat anchor regained a little buoyancy today ;)
    7 Mar 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Now it will be interesting to see if other manufacturers go along with the price increase. I'm sure Exide will be happy to announce that they too will be increasing prices.
    7 Mar 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 3/07/2012 EOD stuff I've been tracking.

     

    Well, this is certainly an improvement Ollie! Buy:sell and short sales into "normal" ranges, static low but with a higher high. Only the number of trades and volume are less than we would like, at 30 trades and only ~61K volume.

     

    But there's more decent news. Trades at the low of $0.37 were only 1 at the open for 100 shares. Trades between $0.37 and less than $0.38 were only 4 totaling 15.89K shares. Trades at $0.38 or higher but less than $0.39 were 13 totaling 26.29K. The rest of the trades, 12, at $0.39 or higher accounted for the rest of the shares, ~18K. So roughly 30% of shares traded went off near the days high.

     

    This put the high *and* close above the falling resistance of the descending triangle. If we can see similar action tomorrow, there's a decent chance that a step up in trading range will occur. None of the TA oscillators are bullish yet, but none are going more bearish and several are trying to curl to the bullish direction.

     

    Market-maker "fishing lures" of 100 share trades were only 12 and they were all, except for the opening $0.37 trade, greater than $0.38 with most being just under $0.39.

     

    The daily short sales being back in normal range suggests that one or more of the following conditions exist: market-makers are not excessively long and trying to dump; there are not a *large* number of new sell orders being received for sale at low prices; there is little "back room" selling going on.

     

    This makes me think that any "flippers" from the recent share issuance are now exhausted AT THIS PRICE LEVEL and we might have some room to move further up if the remaining potential "flippers" also have higher standards and/or longer time horizons.

     

    Of course, I don't want to get all giddy over a one day improvement. But the potential that we *are* breaking out of this descending triangle and ending consolidation should not be overlooked if you have been waiting to buy.

     

    I felt any price below $0.42 was a good price and still feel so. And I still hold to my plan to buy at and above $0.42 as well if a slight move up occurs. I am not worried about any long and deep pullback from there - one or the other is fine, just not both! >8-O

     

    0224 Vol 0239219, Sht 0000500 00.21% LHC 0.4001 0.4150 0.4025 b:s 1:1.45
    0227 Vol 0068550, Sht 0016300 23.78% LHC 0.3902 0.4150 0.4150 b:s 1:2.17
    0228 Vol 0368615, Sht 0055339 15.01% LHC 0.3900 0.4190 0.4000 b:s 1:4.68
    0229 Vol 0303035, Sht 0044000 14.52% LHC 0.3880 0.4099 0.3950 b:s 1:6.50
    0301 Vol 0093200, Sht 0000400 00.43% LHC 0.3810 0.4099 0.4049 b:s 1:1.57
    0302 Vol 0447125, Sht 0059250 13.25% LHC 0.3700 0.4050 0.4000 b:s 1:4.35
    0305 Vol 0172190, Sht 0034520 20.05% LHC 0.3700 0.3998 0.3899 b:s 1.84:1
    0306 Vol 0376877, Sht 0088870 23.58% LHC 0.3700 0.3900 0.3850 b:s 1:5.02
    0307 Vol 0060520, Sht 0022860 37.77% LHC 0.3700 0.3950 0.3950 b:s 1:1.12

     

    HardToLove
    7 Mar 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Wind farms paid not to produce in northwest. Too much electricity, not enough demand.
    http://fxn.ws/wYg5UW
    7 Mar 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have an idea what this 2016 model is:

     

    "The GM-Peugeot deal calls for economies of scale on purchasing and the development of common platforms, with the first products on a shared architecture due out in 2016."

     

    Alliances the buzz word for Europe auto survival:
    http://yhoo.it/xsfGDr
    8 Mar 2012, 05:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    Why was XIDE up 7% yesterday?
    8 Mar 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    LT: (XIDE) has a tendency to move directionally with the SPX, although magnitude varies.

     

    It's one of the factors that can give a good play on options on Exide stock.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Up $.01 since 3/1

     

    closed on the low the brutal market day before

     

    wonder if its big Europe exposure adds to it getting hit real hard on Europe concerns as the pop up like a bad nightmare that keeps coming back ...

     

    Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
    Mar 7, 2012 2.74 2.94 2.68 2.93 1,337,600 2.93
    Mar 6, 2012 2.83 2.83 2.72 2.72 924,700 2.72
    Mar 5, 2012 2.91 2.91 2.80 2.85 660,200 2.85
    Mar 2, 2012 2.92 2.98 2.91 2.91 665,400 2.91
    Mar 1, 2012 3.00 3.01 2.92 2.92 852,300 2.92
    8 Mar 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I just posted a brief Instablog on why I still like XIDE's stock even if I don't like the way they behaved with Axion.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Mar 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    My WAG is a platform for the Opel Astra/Peugeot 308, as both will be long in the tooth about the 2016 timeframe. Both entered production around 2007-2008, and have, or are getting facelifts now.
    8 Mar 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Nice opening shot 13K @ $0.40.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • pianomanshl
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    ACPW common stock offering at 0.68

     

    It is above 0.8 now, up 10%, why..............going to drop later today?

     

    This novice still have hard time predicting pps movement after offering.

     

    Confused.

     

    http://bit.ly/z09lHO
    8 Mar 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's close was $.74. ACPW basically sold the stock at a 10% discount to market price in a transaction that apparently didn't involve a brokerage firm. The buyer was a 10% holder before the transaction and is now over 20%. There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the shares are going to flow back into the market any time soon so the stock should continue to move up now that holders can't obsess over a weak balance sheet any more.

     

    I think ACPW's setting up for another run, but am reluctant to try and predict timing.
    8 Mar 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    HTL, John,
    Continuing from a comment I made a few weeks ago, here is how my trades appeared when I purchased stock. The double count was the same i.e. 7,750 purchase and 7,750 sell. (I assume). And trade times almost simultaneous.
    $0.3975 7,750 OBB 10:46:35
    $0.3975 7,750 OBB 10:46:35
    $0.3975 17,150 OBB 10:42:42
    $0.3975 17,150 OBB 10:42:42
    $0.3975 100 OBB 09:47:24
    $0.3910 8,800 OBB 09:47:18
    $0.3910 8,800 OBB 09:47:17

     

    Unsure if any significance to trades showing like this. Perhaps MM is able to fill order immediately.
    8 Mar 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    If you've got the dates and times I can look at my snapshots and see exactly what is shown, re bid/ask at the time, etc.

     

    The market-makers get fees for providing liquidity so they can buy/sell at the same price and still a something. It's a pittance though so they need volume to make it worthwhile, in aggregate. Otherwise they need a price spread to work with.

     

    If you like, PM me your e-mail addy and I can send you the snapshots so you can examine them for yourself. There's a couple days where I didn't get everything - let's hope it's not one of those days.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Sorry didn't mention it, this was taken from today's trading.
    8 Mar 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    In the below, keep in mind that "buy" and sell are *only* classifications as to nearness to bid and ask, not any knowledge of share flow direction or source. Where the prices are the same, the MM still makes a small fee on the trade from the exchange for providing liquidity. Since computers work "cheap", if these required little manual intervention, it's still worthwhile to the MM.

     

    $0.3975 7,750 OBB 10:46:35 b/a $0.3975/$0.40 "sell"
    $0.3975 7,750 OBB 10:46:35 b/a $0.3975/$0.40 "sell"
    $0.3975 17,150 OBB 10:42:42 b/a $0.3938/$0.40 "buy"
    $0.3975 17,150 OBB 10:42:42 b/a $0.3938/$0.40 "buy"
    $0.3975 100 OBB 09:47:24 b/a $0.39/$0.40 "buy", fishing lure?
    $0.3910 8,800 OBB 09:47:18 b/a $0.39/$0.40 "sell"
    $0.3910 8,800 OBB 09:47:17 b/a $0.39/$0.40 "sell"

     

    I think this is the normal situation when the MM has no shares in hand but his visibility let's him know that he can satisfy the buy and immediately cover at a price acceptable to him.

     

    Ideally, this is the way MM should want to do all the trades - zero-risk assumed.

     

    When we don't see something similar, even allowing a little more time, the MM is:
    - long a bit in his portfolio, either from same-day purchases earlier or shares flowing in from (prior?) days' incoming sell orders,
    - or is doing a naked short, figuring he's covered by shares appearing later (either already known to be coming in or planning to do a covering buy),
    - or (least likely, based on what we've learned from JP) willing to naked short and cover over multi-day periods.

     

    An alternative is also trades that bypass the MM entirely, of course.

     

    As a counterpoint, when I bought my trading blocks on 2/29, there were *no* "matching" trades for almost 30 minutes on the first block (10K and it was at a higher price, +0.0001, likely less than the fee garnered by enabling the trade) and no match for the second block (20K). However, there were some aggregate small blocks at both higher and lower prices which might have been covering buys netting to near-zero cost or better.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    As always, thanks for your reply.
    jlyleluce
    8 Mar 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    OT - The problem with Auto Shows

     

    I spent the day in Geneva yesterday and while I didn't learn a lot I picked up a number of bits and pieces that are fascinating.

     

    One of my big reasons for going was to see BMW's new 116d EfficientDynamics Edition that will launch in Europe this month. This new small car is powered by a 1.6 liter turbo diesel and BMW's fleet wide CO2 champ with emissions of 99 g/km. The centerpiece of their show was the new 6 Series Gran Coupe that will launch in June. It's every luxury car owner's dream.

     

    Both vehicles come standard with BMW's EfficientDynamics package, which shows their commitment to stop-start across the entire product line. The more intriguing facet of both vehicles is the launch of a new driving mode that BMW refers to as ECO PRO that's supposed to improve fuel economy by up to 20% for drivers that pay attention. Their website describes ECO PRO here – http://bit.ly/wm4leB – Even the URL which includes the string "efficientdynamics/pha... is fascinating.

     

    Since nobody benefits from "wouldn't it be great if" speculation, I'll avoid that temptation and simply note that it's encouraging to see BMW staggering their new product launches throughout the year and even more encouraging to see them discussing the current EfficientDynamics technologies as "phase_1."

     

    A second reason for going was that I wanted to see the Controlled Power Technologies "Super-hybrid," which is basically just a very high end micro-hybrid. They started with a VW Passat 1.4 liter turbo-diesel and increased the gear ratios to improve fuel economy. Then, to compensate for the terrible performance, they added an electric supercharger in front of VW's standard turbo-charger and bolted on a 2 kW belt driven starter generator. The net result was lower CO2 emissions than VW's 1.4 liter engine and and 0-60 performance that rivals VW's 1.8 liter engine. It's a very cool efficiency technology, but a lot of hardware. To run all the electrical equipment, they're using a pair of Exide spiral wound AGM batteries in what used to be the wheel well.
    8 Mar 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    I watched the videos that showed how the supercharger and turbocharger and air flow were managed. I was impressed with the application of the concepts in combination.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    thanks John, I was looking forward to that update. That may be what made XIDE rally a bit.

     

    As to BMW....I see all manufacturers doing this, scaling in the fuel efficiency slowly with the tech they have....but as you say it's only phase 1....I still believe we get BMW, however later this year or in 2 years with good production numbers. Either way we see a movement in stock price long before then to your numbers where you thought the stock should be i.e $1.27-2.50
    8 Mar 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    One thing I'd note is that if you look at BMW's description of the Eco Pro Mode, it's clear that they're beginning to give more and more info to the driver regarding the current efficiency/savings of the system. That means they *cannot* afford for their batteries to be giving sub-par performances after a short span of time; they can't rely simply on the fuel savings of the brand-new vehicle. This is great news, IMO.

     

    "The control display indicates which BMW EfficientDynamics functions are currently operating in order to actively reduce the amount of energy being used, such as Brake Energy Regeneration or optimised temperature control. The driver also receives situation-specific ECO PRO Info on fuel-efficient driving, such as the optimal gear to drive in. The Bonus Range Display in the on-board computer shows how much further it is possible to drive thanks to the ECO PRO Mode."
    8 Mar 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Is it true that a PbC that could do the same job as those 2 Exide AGM batteries would compare favorably in price, weight and space requirements?
    8 Mar 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that the dual spiral wound AGM batteries were in the CPT Super-hybrid. Without having somebody way smarter than me dig into the charge discharge profiles on the system, it's impossible to say whether a single PbC could carry the loads effectively.
    8 Mar 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Thanks for the report.
    8 Mar 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    What was BMW using to run S/S?
    8 Mar 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    They're using a sealed AGM-type battery, but with the way they pack the batteries into their car it's impossible to tell who's battery because all you can see is the top which is covered with BMW part stickers rather than a manufacturer branding materials.
    9 Mar 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh sugar!

     

    I don't suppose you thought to ask them what the life expectancy of the battery was, did you?
    9 Mar 2012, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    My hostess was a 20 something with large breasts and a short skirt who had no idea where the battery was. Under the circumstances asking technical questions about the battery would have been futile.
    9 Mar 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LOL! Well, I guess I can understand that circumstance. You don't suppose they planned that do you? Given the circumstances, how many people could walk away from that car and, even if they didn't like it, *not* have a positive feeling it when they refer back to seeing that car at the show?

     

    Pretty shrewd crowd, those marketing wienies!
    9 Mar 2012, 04:04 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    Good point - in other words, if the start/stop is not functional b/c the battery has been depleted, then at some point you would expect to have a message from the computer stating that the system is not functioning properly ... similar to a door ajar reading or some other type of malfunction message.
    8 Mar 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    You guys picked up on two good points that needed to be brought to everyone's attention...
    1. The computer will tell the driver about fuel consumption....BMW is doing a very good job of "educating" the consumer FIRST. You can bet that they are just giving them a test run on what's to come....get us used to what is required to save fuel. They will NOT use a battery that is not of high quality....No AGM here guys ...My guess is the PbC in the high end, or something that matches it's "quality & performance." They are gradually leading you down the road to the true start/stop system...learn the computer first, then give you the real deal.
    2. DLane...the PbC may or may not be "cheaper" and it still may require a "two battery system" one to crank it and the other for S/S...don't get your hopes up on CHEAP yet.
    As Lafferty pointed out, it is good news so far but definitely not official yet. It could happen quickly or still could be a year or two out. That's why JP didn't go further on speculation.
    8 Mar 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The timing issues are way up in the air, but BMW is clearly planning on taking stop-start much farther down the line than it is currently. When they start giving the driver minute to minute data on how the sub-systems are functioning, the last thing they want is a suboptimal component. It's one of those great news but no news at all developments.
    8 Mar 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! I agree that there is no news here regarding PbC directly but was trying to enhance/confirm my working knowledge of what PbC can do. Thanks for the reminder that PbC in fact will likely cost more than AGM. (But less then L-ion)
    8 Mar 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Regarding the Auto Show and BMW, could you tell if the cars on display were single or dual battery solutions? Did you see any other automakers micro-hybrids and, if so, could you tell if they were single or dual batteries?

     

    Thanks.
    8 Mar 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I was only able to do a battery inspection on the BMW 116d EfficientDynamics Edition and that was a single battery that dropped down into a recessed spot below the trunk. Everybody else wants you to look at the shiny exteriors, plush interiors and pretty girls.
    9 Mar 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Well, my tentative thought that we might start a move up looks to be one of my better moments right now.

     

    As of 13:41:43, 26 trades (123,870 shares traded) buy:sell is in our favor, 1.18:1, on buy of 66,920 and sell of 56,850. Average trade size up nicely to ~4,764.

     

    Lowest trade so far $0.3902 and highest at $0.40.

     

    Buy:sell weakened a bit as I typed this, but it can't all be straight up.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    http://reut.rs/xwXcqS

     

    uh, this can't be good. each new datapoint is helping to build a narrative...
    8 Mar 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Hi all,

     

    Just stopped by to drop this link to new Consumer Reports article. Seems they ponied up the money to buy a Karma to test, only to have the thing die before 200 miles with no clue why! First Tesla's "brick" and now this. You just can't make up stories like this! I did like the comment at the end saying that this wouldn't affect their reliability rating, since that is done by CR readers who own the product being rated. I wonder how many people who own a $100,000 car read CR and fill out the surveys?
    All right. Back to moving a lab.

     

    http://reut.rs/xwXcqS
    8 Mar 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    "since that is done by CR readers who own the product being rated. I wonder how many people who own a $100,000 car read CR and fill out the surveys? "

     

    ~ and to further that idea, of those readers who own the $100K car at issue and fill-out the surveys, most will undoubtedly have read that article. When completing their survey, how many will base their response solely on their own experience and not allow the story they read 2 or 3 months ago impact their responses?
    9 Mar 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    Quercus filed a Form 144 today relating to the planned sale of 850,000 shares over the 90-day period starting March 15, 2012.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/wuyHHk

     

    According to their last Form 4 filing, they had 2,492,352 shares left at February 9th.

     

    Given the YTD volume of 22.36 million shares it shouldn't be much more than a speed bump, particularly if they stick to their habitual 10% of volume target.
    8 Mar 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Thanks as always John for your consistent "straight shooting" and sharing of information -- good, bad, or ugly.
    8 Mar 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    insider trading link showing details of sales by Quercus. Last on 9 Feb.
    http://bit.ly/rMioyU
    8 Mar 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    So, assuming they just keep selling at this measured pace, they've got about 9 months supply left? Happy Thanksgiving 2012 everyone! ;)
    8 Mar 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I assume that means any pop in the next three months will be short lived..
    8 Mar 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    They were selling during the run up to 1.20 last feb.- march. They also were selling during this years run-up. Their 10% per day does not effect pps too much, unless their are other sellers trying to elbow in.
    8 Mar 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Not necessarily. As JP has pointed out, there's a lot of changes in supply and demand that have come to pass in the average daily, weekly, monthly and yearly volumes.

     

    If a pop comes from news there's apparently a lot more folks aware of AXPW now that might overwhelm the small 10% (sporadic) daily that Quercus would dribble into the market.

     

    There's also many here, I would guess, that have reserved some additional powder and await a move in *either* direction to indicate *now* is a good time to add, whether for long-term investing or trading blocks.

     

    We know that a fair amount of the float is held by folks that frequent this concentrator, and probably some that just lurk. he majority of these shares are, effectively, out of circulation until a *major* price rise.

     

    Using Bangwhiz's search feature at his site would find the published number again.

     

    Anyway, if Quercus is selling and I've got my powder, I have planned some additions.

     

    Just my thoughts and may be all wrong,
    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    I am giving my personal opinion here. I believe that this years conference call and shareholders meeting are extremely important.

     

    We have seen the company hire a high level salesperson, have a few companies testing the hell out of the product. Have the price of fuel going through the roof. So if we get the normal run of the mill speeches i am afraid we are a ways away from making money

     

    If they are close to anything signifcant some sort of hints should come out imho..

     

    map
    8 Mar 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    MAP the CC is very important but Axion really doesn't hint at news based on what I've seen. Normally with Axion news comes when you least expect it. Also Vani hasn't been here that long thus most here would be surprised with a sale (as the sales cycle is measured in months and years for these types of accounts).
    8 Mar 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    BAZ

     

    I understand your point but Vani is for the future, i actually was excluding him in my thinking. Unless he is the person that reports any sale.. I am only guessing here but having our product in a Naval yard feels like they( navy ) may have an eye on it , maybe even testing it???

     

    Just want no one to know about it and used this contractor as a cover up. Maybe i am wishing here, but when you need to raise money and have your stock price get cut in half overnight i would hope a bone is thrown out to those who are sticking with them.

     

    Now you know more than i do as i am new to the dance, but if something exciting is bubbling maybe something will slip out?

     

    As an investor i guess i might be asking for too much, but i am sure they know that the investors are getting restless after the 35 cent share offering. MAYBE COMPANIES DON'T CARE either..

     

    All i know is that i am hoping to hear an announcement of some sort of sale held for the conference call. JP would know if i am way off base.

     

    map
    8 Mar 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    MAP, throwing us a bone will have no sustained impact on the stock.

     

    when you find that your desires are not shared by other shareholders a likely cause is a different approach to investing.

     

    a terrible analogy: revolutions are not about winning victories but fighting long enough to outlast your enemies.

     

    axpw can keep fighting at least another year. it's batteries are cheaper and/or perform better than competitors. it won't win business with AONE like press releases, and i'm not holding to flip out of shares at 60 cents.
    8 Mar 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Tragic

     

    If TG made an announcement that they were close to a deal with a customer you do not feel the stock will be affected??

     

    You are right, all investors have different exit points. So i am sure not ALL of you agree on you desires or price you will sell at. Everyone has a price!!

     

    Not sure what the 60 cents means, please elaborate. Yes they can fight another year, maybe, Also i agree your analogy isn't the best.
    To me winning victories usually ends up winning the war.

     

    So i am still holding out hope that we learn something new soon, as i would like to add more shares but this is purely a spec. play.

     

    That 35 cent private placement has me concerned. Using your analogy losing more than winning sends most to the poor house. Especially when the clock is ticking, and it is ticking!!! Revolutions have no timetable.

     

    map
    9 Mar 2012, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The changes in the way Mr. Granville talks about developments are pretty subtle because Tom isn't one to pound the table or speak out of school, but it was very clear to me that he was upset about the technical issue in the last call because he'd obviously been planning on the Q&A to provide an opportunity to say things that weren't included in his prepared remarks. The two first tier testing programs we know about are very advanced and while we tend to think of testing as something to endure, it's important to remember that potential customers are spending a lot of their own money to do the testing on their end. By the time you assign a few engineers and start building test vehicles the costs can easily run into millions per year. The numbers never hit Axion's financial statements, but they are investments in the PbC nonetheless.

     

    From my perspective, it's been about 7-1/2 months since we got our last real update from management because the September CC got screwed up by the Q&A problem. What we did hear was good but it was nowhere near as complete as it could have been. I'm looking forward to this one.
    9 Mar 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    see american revolution.

     

    60ish cents is the january high and the best i'd expect a fluff press release to push prices.

     

    i cannot understand how pushing january highs because of a promotional news story is more exciting to a long term investor than a 35 cent private placement that keeps the business running through the year.

     

    " 35 cent private placement has me concerned" stop looking at price then and ask yourself how the company looks as an investment after the placement.

     

    this stock has always been a speculative play. it has always been very speculative for you in particular, as you entered because of momentum probably in early january. i actually like this company's tech and think the longer the company can stay alive the more other companies will adopt.

     

    for me, running out of operating cash flow is scary. it would be scary if a true lead/carbon battery from another company started putting up better numbers.

     

    the fact people are selling lead batteries using carbon pastes suggests a bit of a transitional period now. carbon pastes are strictly inferior (as i've read them so far) and offer a small taste of what a PbC battery might do. that's something to get excited about.
    9 Mar 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    The way I see it, after Trego finishes the financials part and passes the mic back to TG we will not hear much about Q4, it will be about what has happened in Q1 (NS order placed/filled, order placed for Gen3 lines) that I want to hear. We all know there will be a lot of questions this time around. I bet we get no news before the year end results except the date of the CC announcement. I hope I am wrong about that. 8-)
    9 Mar 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    "the fact people are selling lead batteries using carbon pastes suggests a bit of a transitional period now"

     

    Tragicslip...I am glad to see someone else post this, The fact that the word is out on AGM not lasting will only enhance the timeframe of a move to carbon... that tells me carbon is the key, but battery manufacturers are trying their best to do an in-house get by before having to pay AXPW.
    We all know that Lithium is too expensive for now...and carbon is being addressed....The more you see about carbon now, the faster we come to mkt.
    MAP has a legit point, on stock price, ... when you wonder "who" is selling at these prices....remember that when individuals need money, they usually have to sell something. We all know that AXPW is a speculative play, but that doesn't change an individual's needs, and it didn't change Quercus, Special Sits, and these are big guys who got caught needing cash at a bad time. No one big or small is exempt from this....and as much as I like the technology, it's durability, and possible future....It is all about an investment. Getting the stock price back up should be a priority. Raising capital at .35 and trying to raise enough money to build a company out for mass production is a tough road for everyone. A pps of over $1 would be much better, also being listed on another exchange requires it....and personally I hate reverse splits. If APPL didn't have sales and an ever increasing stock price, would you like it? I doubt it, because not many years ago it was $5 and nobody wanted it.
    9 Mar 2012, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    quite honestly, I am glad to see much of the "hype" leave and more of a focus on the facts such as "carbon paste"...this adoption alone gives me much more confidence in AXPW technology and PbC. It was tough seeing orders for lithium, AGM's of all types, etc. Not counting the new battery techs we post about on a daily basis....and us saying we get a BMW, NS, GM order tomorrow. Grant you, there would not be a happier person on the planet than me if we did.

     

    New investors are out there, and maybe they are smarter than me and wait for the "sure thing" and buy after PbC is adopted. IMO they will be much more inclined to begin starter positions when educated on the carbon aspect, and how it is being adopted than hype for a quick ten cent stock move..

     

    I loved the Report that JP gave us on BMW and what they introduced (you can see the trend now), the Navy zero energy building deal, even tho there was no real $$$ involved, it put the tech to work in a real setting. I love the PC, because of the same. What better sales pitch can you give other than walk out the back door and actually see one working and then show the data with real numbers that it has produced. Not counting Viridity, PJM, Rosewater having the same opportunity.
    JP & others worked for years to get to this point. These are not baby steps in a way...they are the fruit of years of labor and $$$$....They are the first huge steps to engaging in a real market with a real product. That is what will gain market acceptance and move the stock price. Hype just leads to disappointment.
    9 Mar 2012, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Tragic

     

    " 35 cent private placement has me concerned" stop looking at price then and ask yourself how the company looks as an investment after the placement."

     

    I will tell you when i see a sales order come in.!!!! Also please don't assume when i bought the stock either. This thread is a very technical one but one thing i do know is money always seems to run out faster than you expect it to.

     

    We shall know in a relatively short time won't we.. Funny , i never said i was looking for a fluff, i am looking for legitimate sales from this investment. Otherwise i keep looking at that clock ticking!!

     

    My analogy is one of a basketball game. After 1st quarter you are losing by 10 points, same for 2nd, 3rd and in the fourth quarter you make a slight comeback. BUT game is over!! We lose, that is my ultimate concern,TIME...

     

    MAP
    9 Mar 2012, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. Very well said LT!
    9 Mar 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1825) | Send Message
     
    MAP, I think your concerns are legit.

     

    But I think of it differently and it sounds like a few other Axionistas do as well.

     

    I'll admit that I got into Axion hoping to make a quick buck. 2 years and many more shares acquired later it obviously it hasn't turned out that way.

     

    But now I think of it as a waiting game. And I think management sees it that way too.

     

    We have the technology and the blueprint for a production line so know it's just a matter of 'actively' waiting for customers to place their orders.

     

    Could be next month or it could be next year.

     

    But when I'm sitting on $1M+ in 2017 I won't really care whether it started happing in 2011, 2012 or 2013.

     

    I can think, I can fast and I can wait.

     

    D
    9 Mar 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • jayenright
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    "My analogy is one of a basketball game. After 1st quarter you are losing by 10 points, same for 2nd, 3rd and in the fourth quarter you make a slight comeback. BUT game is over!! We lose, that is my ultimate concern,TIME..."

     

    Or... :)
    http://bit.ly/ylGlbg
    9 Mar 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    That, sir, is the best analogy as a response I've ever seen!

     

    I'll bet similar examples are around in baseball, football, horse racing, ... business.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Siddhartha:)
    9 Mar 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    hmmm the term prescience comes to mind...we shall see...
    10 Mar 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1825) | Send Message
     
    Correct, pascquale.

     

    I saw that movie a couple years ago and didn't think much of it but that philosophy keeps coming back to me.

     

    D
    13 Mar 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Jay

     

    If that is what you are really waiting for?? Wow

     

    Map
    13 Mar 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Tragic makes a good point above. The real Axion story is seeing the forest through the trees. Yes, stock pops can be fun in the short term. But the real story wont be a one-off sales events that pops us 25-75% on the next day. Rather tt will be when sustained traction is made into major oem markets.

     

    I also agree that having an extra year of runway is huge news already. And I'm glad to know others here don't see a quick double as the end game. In fact some of us are holding for many multiples of that.
    9 Mar 2012, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Guys

     

    I am the first to admit i am still learning what you battery gurus already forgot. But then i wonder what is holding back the price of the stock if this is indeed a no brainer??

     

    Tragic, i agree with you .Time is against us. I could sit on this for 5 years if i was sure it is THE answer. We just don't have the funds unless sales pick up.

     

    That is why i agree with LT that we need to get more exposure and the best way is sales and a rising stock price. That grabs a ton of attention imho

     

    map
    9 Mar 2012, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    The point that most investors overlook is that the PbC is a totally new technology. Lead-acid chemistry may be 150 years old, but nobody has ever made a true hybrid between a battery and a supercapacitor.

     

    When you look at other battery technologies, you see that the lead-acid sector is trying to change the composition of the pastes they've been putting on cast lead grids for the last 75 years. You see that the lithium-ion sector is fooling around the edges by changing the chemical composition of coatings they put on the aluminum and copper foils they've been using for the last 25 years. Even Envia is simply talking about a more sophisticated and highly structured surface coating for anodes and cathodes. In essence, they're all working on incremental improvements to devices that have been manufactured at enormous scale for decades.

     

    The PbC is a world apart from what everybody else is doing, and as far as the proprietary aspects are concerned it's the only company in the space because it's patent portfolio will preclude competition for another decade at least. We worked very hard to develop the carbon electrode assembly in a form factor that would work as a plug-and-play replacement in a conventional AGM line, but that was a commercialization ramp decision. We wanted to make it as easy as possible for the industry to adopt the PbC technology without having to build new factories.

     

    When you get down to brass tacks, the PbC electrode assembly is a one-of-a-kind device in the battery industry. Nobody makes a part or component that's even remotely similar. So Axion not only had to develop the science of an asymmetric lead-carbon capacitor from the ground up, it had to develop the technology to manufacture a five layer laminated electrode assembly that can withstand years of service life in a sulfuric acid bath.

     

    I understand the nagging concerns that time is somehow Axion's enemy, but it's just not true. In the last conference call Tom noted that the cycle count at 100% DOD was up to 2,500. Think about what that means for a minute. Leave the headlights on in your car all night every night for seven years. The latest presentation has a slide that shows a two month old PbC has 10 times the dynamic charge acceptance of a two month old AGM battery and a nine month old PbC has 20 times the dynamic charge acceptance. These are not incremental gains. They're orders of magnitude.

     

    I can't put a precise figure on it, but BMW and NS have both spent millions testing the PbC over the last two to three years. They've both publicly wrapped their arms around the technology before it was a product. The last thing anybody needs or wants is a frantic rush to generate sales that overlooks some critical aspect of the development path. New technologies can afford delays, they can't afford avoidable failures.

     

    The media was beside itself with the fact that Envia promised a doubling of energy density in lithium-ion batteries if the next five years of development goes perfectly. I'm underwhelmed.

     

    The market does not and cannot understand just how important the PbC technology is. It starts with the cheapest and safest chemistry around, increases useful device life by 500% to 1000% and slashes charging times from 10 hours to less than one hour. It also has huge potential for future performance gains and cost reductions because it's a brand new technology, instead of an incremental improvement to technologies that have decades of optimization under their belts.

     

    Over the last four years I've become one of the most widely heard voices in the energy storage sector, which is why I've been invited to appear as a keynote speaker at ELBC 13 in Paris. My voice is an inaudible whisper compared to either of Axion's two disclosed first tier partners. When they speak, the whole market will listen and so will a media that's growing increasingly disenchanted with the trail of broken promises from the EV and lithium-ion hucksters.
    9 Mar 2012, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    If you had the chance to ask one question on the cc what would it be??

     

    MAP
    9 Mar 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to know what the daily production capacities of the flooded and AGM lines are. I have a firm handle on the permitted capacity of 3,000 batteries a day but have no idea how the actual production capacity of the three lines breaks down.

     

    I'd like to know how many active long-term testing programs they're engaged in segregated by industry e.g. automotive, rail, industrial, utility and other.

     

    Beyond that I'm far more interested in listening than talking.
    9 Mar 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2553) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic comment John.
    9 Mar 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding post JP! "New technologies can afford delays, they can't afford avoidable failures."
    ~ that is absolutely true, though few, if any of us have ever thought of it. New technologies have literally been forever getting here! One simple oversight is all it takes to cause a hiccup (avoidable failure) somewhere. Inevitably, that hiccup would be very visible and tarnish the perspective of many prospective customers, the media and the public at large, thus reducing the odds and extent of success. While a carefully chosen, well executed path takes more time, it also increases both the odds and degree of success exponentially. It's a lesson in delayed gratification. Many people have a difficult time with that today.

     

    It also lends itself well to what you often tell others as the boast the merits of their upcoming product "I'll be impressed when I see it delivering in quantities". Axion could be running around trying to drum up hype about all of the beautiful things it's *going* to do, but taking the time to ensure that it truly does deliver on those things successfully and then having that news broken to the world by the likes of BMW or NS has a far greater impact. #1 it's coming from the customers themselves - slim chance of discrediting those claims. #2 - it *blasts* onto the scene, not something that has come to be expected due to the hype over a period of time. "...When they speak, the whole market will listen and so will a media that's growing increasingly disenchanted with the trail of broken promises from the EV and lithium-ion hucksters."

     

    "I understand the nagging concerns that time is somehow Axion's enemy, but it's just not true. In the last conference call Tom noted that the cycle count at 100% DOD was up to 2,500. Think about what that means for a minute. Leave the headlights on in your car all night every night for seven years. The latest presentation has a slide that shows a two month old PbC has 10 times the dynamic charge acceptance of a two month old AGM battery and a nine month old PbC has 20 times the dynamic charge acceptance. These are not incremental gains. They're orders of magnitude."

     

    "The market does not and cannot understand just how important the PbC technology is. It starts with the cheapest and safest chemistry around, increases useful device life by 500% to 1000% and slashes charging times from 10 hours to less than one hour. It also has huge potential for future performance gains and cost reductions because it's a brand new technology, instead of an incremental improvement to technologies that have decades of optimization under their belts."
    ~ those 2 paragraphs may be the some of the summary I've seen yet; concise, yet quantifies things in a context the layman can comprehend.

     

    "They've both *publicly* wrapped their arms around the technology *before it was a product*."
    ~ those are 2 very key elements
    9 Mar 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I think it all boils down to two "A" words. Where the others focus on Aspirations, the boys in New Castle only talk about Accomplishments.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    I second that! Thanks John.
    9 Mar 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Mr John:

     

    In my opinion this comment should be an article of SA.
    11 Mar 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Mr John:
    I am referring to comment No. 13509. and suggest place it in the beginning of the next concentrator.
    12 Mar 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: I couldn't find the comment you mention.

     

    However, if you go to the comment, at the bottom of the comment is a small "chain" icon (hard to recognize for me) between the time stamp and the "Report Abuse".

     

    You can right-click this and click "Copy Link Location", or something similar, to get a URL (the address for the comment) onto the computer clipboard. Or you can left-click and it will position your browser at the comment. Then select all in the address bar in your browser (either a double click or select and drag across the whole URL) and then either ctrl-c (press the control key and hold it down and press C) or right-click in there and select "Copy Link Location" or similar. This also puts the URL in your clipboard.

     

    You can then write your comment and copy this URL by either a "right-click" and select "Paste" or hit ctrl-v (press the control key and hold it down and press V).

     

    This will allow readers to click the link you inserted in your comment, which will take us right to the comment.

     

    HTH (hope this helps),
    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    HardToLove:
    Gracias, Thank you for your interest and cooperation, this is the comment:

     

    The point that most investors overlook is that the PbC is a totally new technology. Lead-acid chemistry may be 150 years old, but nobody has ever made a true hybrid between a battery and a supercapacitor.

     

    When you look at other battery technologies, you see that the lead-acid sector is trying to change the composition of the pastes they've been putting on cast lead grids for the last 75 years. You see that the lithium-ion sector is fooling around the edges by changing the chemical composition of coatings they put on the aluminum and copper foils they've been using for the last 25 years. Even Envia is simply talking about a more sophisticated and highly structured surface coating for anodes and cathodes. In essence, they're all working on incremental improvements to devices that have been manufactured at enormous scale for decades.

     

    The PbC is a world apart from what everybody else is doing, and as far as the proprietary aspects are concerned it's the only company in the space because it's patent portfolio will preclude competition for another decade at least. We worked very hard to develop the carbon electrode assembly in a form factor that would work as a plug-and-play replacement in a conventional AGM line, but that was a commercialization ramp decision. We wanted to make it as easy as possible for the industry to adopt the PbC technology without having to build new factories.

     

    When you get down to brass tacks, the PbC electrode assembly is a one-of-a-kind device in the battery industry. Nobody makes a part or component that's even remotely similar. So Axion not only had to develop the science of an asymmetric lead-carbon capacitor from the ground up, it had to develop the technology to manufacture a five layer laminated electrode assembly that can withstand years of service life in a sulfuric acid bath.

     

    I understand the nagging concerns that time is somehow Axion's enemy, but it's just not true. In the last conference call Tom noted that the cycle count at 100% DOD was up to 2,500. Think about what that means for a minute. Leave the headlights on in your car all night every night for seven years. The latest presentation has a slide that shows a two month old PbC has 10 times the dynamic charge acceptance of a two month old AGM battery and a nine month old PbC has 20 times the dynamic charge acceptance. These are not incremental gains. They're orders of magnitude.

     

    I can't put a precise figure on it, but BMW and NS have both spent millions testing the PbC over the last two to three years. They've both publicly wrapped their arms around the technology before it was a product. The last thing anybody needs or wants is a frantic rush to generate sales that overlooks some critical aspect of the development path. New technologies can afford delays, they can't afford avoidable failures.

     

    The media was beside itself with the fact that Envia promised a doubling of energy density in lithium-ion batteries if the next five years of development goes perfectly. I'm underwhelmed.

     

    The market does not and cannot understand just how important the PbC technology is. It starts with the cheapest and safest chemistry around, increases useful device life by 500% to 1000% and slashes charging times from 10 hours to less than one hour. It also has huge potential for future performance gains and cost reductions because it's a brand new technology, instead of an incremental improvement to technologies that have decades of optimization under their belts.

     

    Over the last four years I've become one of the most widely heard voices in the energy storage sector, which is why I've been invited to appear as a keynote speaker at ELBC 13 in Paris. My voice is an inaudible whisper compared to either of Axion's two disclosed first tier partners. When they speak, the whole market will listen and so will a media that's growing increasingly disenchanted with the trail of broken promises from the EV and lithium-ion hucksters.
    12 Mar 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Ah! I was looking in John's comments for the number you posted, "I am referring to comment No. 13509". The actual comment number is 3318381.

     

    http://bit.ly/xL465G

     

    Since Seeking Alpha hides the URL, here's the end of it.

     

    ... green#comment-3318381

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I just checked his comments and the comment number is the same there - makes sense.
    12 Mar 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    I think the reference was to my total number of comments, which will now jump to 13510.
    12 Mar 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    It is correct.
    Have a good day all AXIONISTAS.
    12 Mar 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Thank you also HTL...I never even spotted the "chain"!
    12 Mar 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Originally I didn't either. It took me a *long* time (and probably some kind of accidental event) for me to discover it.

     

    Obviously (or maybe obliviously) whoever designed this had much better eyes and familiarity with what they were trying to accomplish.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    "the whole market will listen and so will the media who are growing increasingly disenchanted with the trail of broken promises from the EV and lithium-ion hucksters".

     

    We are seeing this now I think John, the media....and a more positive is the new products being unveiled - shows that your thesis when I bought AXPW is correct and coming into play (that's been 2 years too,) that auto's especially will take the low fruit first, such as Start/Stop. The grid is sorta new with lot's of developments.

     

    When is Paris dates? Sure would be nice to see further confirmation of market acceptance of PbC.
    9 Mar 2012, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29549) | Send Message
     
    25 - 28 September http://bit.ly/vZuvTn
    9 Mar 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    Funds love these 9 clean energy stocks:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Mar 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Negative plug for Axion stock by Smart Trend, based on enterprise value to sales ratio. As Axion is only just at the beginning of commercial production/sales, don't see how ratio really applies.

     

    http://bit.ly/xFUKyD
    9 Mar 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't apply...but does show that sales is all we lack to get positive ratings, and probably not as many $$$ in sales as we think.
    9 Mar 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4595) | Send Message
     
    This hurts all battery makers short term, but I think soon it helps AXPW as they find out the failures of cool tech.

     

    March 9 (Reuters) - A123 Systems Inc :
    * ThinkEquity cuts A123 Systems Inc price target to $1.25 from $1.50;
    rating sell
    9 Mar 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    Wunderlich cut them to .50 a little while back. It would not surprise me to see a new PR release from A123 to counter this. Wunderlich is the one to watch though, Theodore O'Neil at Wunderlich seems to be on top of the Lithium-ion market (comparatively speaking). They cut Ener1 to $1 long before anyone had any inclination it would go there (Well, anyone other than our own oracle JP -- if I could only get him to time things up a little better for me though; to the week would be nice.)
    9 Mar 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. Evidently JP's crystal ball doesn't have a calendar in it. Must have been an option. ;-)
    9 Mar 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Naw! It was VRLA powered and it couldn't handle the load and failed after just a few months even with constant re-charging! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    **** Link to New Concentrator Here *****

     

    Note there is a new host, and it's not me. Just posting the link as APH was unable to do so immediately as APH is a new user name and SA reviews comments. Thanks APH for taking on this task.

     

    http://bit.ly/ymg4co
    9 Mar 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $LINE shorts finally getting squeezed? LINE's largest holder, Omega Advisors, are "comfortable" with their $200M holdings of LINE
    Jun 18, 2013
  • I will be on Mad Money tonight in Cramer's Lightning Round with stock pick $LINE, which yields almost 9%, and yet hit a 52 week low today.
    May 30, 2013
  • Axion Power (AXPW) announces Dec. delivery of batteries to Norfolk Southern for new all electric yard switcher. Shares up 9.87%
    Jan 11, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.