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Hewitt Heiserman Jr. conceived the Earnings Power Chart, which is the subject of his book "It's Earnings That Count" (McGraw-Hill, 2004). Mr. Heiserman is a member of the Boston Security Analyst Society and the CFA Institute. He has been quoted in TheStreet.com, The Wall Street... More
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  • Rare “Cardinal Climax” Planetary Alignment This Summer Puts Stocks at Risk, says Veteran Sky Watcher 28 comments
    Mar 31, 2010 5:31 PM
    This summer the planets form a rare “Cardinal Climax” alignment, which puts financial markets at risk, says Arch Crawford. Publisher of Crawford Perspectives since 1977, the veteran sky watcher uses a mix of technical analysis and astrology to gauge which way equities and other asset classes are headed. To learn more about this unorthodox investment process, I recently spoke to Mr. Crawford about some of his best calls, what day the Cardinal Climax strikes, and how to prepare for the turmoil he expects. Here is an edited version of our conversation.
     
     
    We want to talk about the upcoming Cardinal Climax, which you say puts stocks—and perhaps humanity—in jeopardy. But first, explain to Seeking Alpha readers how you invest?
     
    Certain planetary alignments put people under extra stress. And one way this stress manifests itself is in financial markets. After all, financial markets are a mix of fundamentals and emotion. Since astrologic events affect our emotions, I find it profitable to study the planets.
     
    Tell me more.
     
    It is common knowledge that when there is a full moon, there are more car accidents and other forms of aggressive behavior. Since financial markets partly reflect our hopes and fears, these markets are prone to mood swings. If you can anticipate these mood swings, you gain an edge over investors who focus solely on interest rates, growth forecasts, debt loads, and other traditional yardsticks.
     
    I have examined every substantial move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1896, and I find that when planets are at difficult angles, then owning stocks and commodities is riskier.
     
    What is a “difficult” angle?
     
    When two planets form a 45-, 90-, 135-, or 180-degree angle, with earth as the midpoint between the two planets.
     
    Why do difficult angles cause difficult markets?
     
    The reasons are partially understood. In the 1940’s, radio propagation specialist John Nelson studied planetary alignments to time sunspot activity and solar flares, and thereby help his employer, RCA, reroute shortwave radio transmissions efficiently. Years later, when I got interested in alignments and became friendly with John, he would tell me when a flare was in progress. I would then call a broker and find that, typically, stocks were dropping and gold was rising. In concert with new and full moons, where the tidal forces brought the atmospheric disturbances closer to the earth, extreme volatility would ensue in markets where a significant emotional component was already in progress.
     
    For instance, the highest sustained period of ionospheric electrons measured by geosynchronous satellite took place the week before and during the October 1987 crash, and then dropped back on the day of the stock market low.
     
    Recent studies by physicists, biologists and cosmologists show gravitational and electromagnetic activity affects the growth patterns of many species here on earth. Much of this data was collected and correlated by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, in Albuquerque, NM.
     
    I once did a study of the worst days in the stock market. Two-thirds of those days occurred in one-third of the calendar year, centered on the Fall Equinox, around Sept. 22-23. Maybe there is a symmetry that governs the universe that we haven’t yet figured out.
     
    How did a physics and math major from the University of North Carolina get interested in planets?
     
    I read about it on the front page of the Wall Street Journal in 1963, while a technical market analyst at Merrill Lynch. I was the first assistant to the legendary Robert Farrell, who was repeatedly voted best on the Street by his peers in the annual Institutional Investormagazine poll. My curiosity piqued, I looked into this subject and found that difficult alignments correlated with difficult markets. The correlation was too well-defined to be chance.
     
    Give us examples when difficult alignments correlated with difficult markets. Let’s start with the Great Depression.
     
    During 1929-1932 there were several difficult planetary alignments.
     
    What about the October 1987 crash?
     
    On Aug. 24, planets were in the tightest five-body “conjunction,” or same ecliptic longitude, in at least 800 years. “It doesn't get any better than this,” I reasoned. Therefore, “A severe decline will follow,” I told subscribers. Turns out, Aug. 24 was the top. From that alignment high to the Oct. 20 low, the Dow fell 33%. A difficult planetary alignment preceded a difficult stock market.
     
    What about the 2008 Crash?
     
    Our research showed a Mars-Uranus “crash cycle” beginning Aug. 6, 2008 and ending in late-Mar. 2009. So beginning several months before Aug. 6, we repeatedly told subscribers, “Neither Wall Street nor our Government will be able to hold markets up against the 'deluge'!"
     
    Further, on Sept. 2 we told subscribers that the worst part of the crash would occur on Oct. 10, plus or minus three trading days. We repeated this forecast on Oct. 2. Our headline was: “Market Crash – Dead Ahead.” Turns out, Oct. 10 had the largest number of new lows on the NYSE ever, at 1203.
     
    Why did you choose Oct. 10?
     
    There was a full moon after the market closed on Oct. 9. Also, there was a “Grand Cross” alignment at this time, with the sun opposite the moon, and squaring Uranus opposite Neptune. 
     
    So this is another example of when a difficult planetary alignment preceded a difficult stock market.
     
    Did the planets or your technical analysis forecast the rebound in stocks which began March 9, 2009?
     
    Our March 2 headline was: "Best Bet - Nearby Low!"
     
    Then on March 12 we told subscribers: "We believe this rally confirms a strong buy.”
     
    Does energy from difficult alignments reveal itself in ways that go beyond financial markets?
     
    In April 1986 we had a Lunar Eclipse conjunct Pluto. The close proximity with Pluto is rare. So we told subscribers, "If you don't feel this one, you're not alive!" We were prophetic, as the April 26th Chernobyl accident raised radiation levels worldwide.
     
    By the way, we have another Lunar Eclipse conjunct with Plato on June 26. Pluto “rules” nuclear power, debt, interest rates, and the use of force, say the astrologers. Maybe June 26 is the de facto start of the Cardinal Climax.
     
    In November 1989, we observed a Saturn conjunct with Neptune, both opposite Jupiter to the day. This alignment happens every hundreds of years; i.e., it is extremely rare. Several days later the Berlin Wall fell.
     
    In our July 1990 we told subscribers, “This will be one of the worst days of the century. There will be coercion, the use of force, a large explosion and heartlessness or cruelty August 2-7." On Aug. 2, Saddam Hussein unexpectedly attacked Kuwait. What alarmed me was the Lunar Eclipse forming another Grand Cross, this time with Mars opposite Pluto.
     
    What about September 11, 2001?
     
    In our letter mailed Sept. 4 we wrote that when Mars hits the solar eclipse point on Sep. 7th or Sep. 8th, then the U.S. will be at war.
     
    Do the planets ever fool you?
     
    We are still in the 'covered wagon days' of this as a science. Much of the time is without major significance. Also, the “big alignments” can be tricky to interpret. But some alignments—this summer’s Cardinal Climax, for instance—are unambiguous.
     
    Let’s talk about the Cardinal Climax.
     
    On August 1, give or take a week, we’ll have the most five-planet alignments in perhaps thousands of years. Known as the “Cardinal Climax,” this is the meanest, nastiest, most challenging and most transformational of any planetary phenomena in all of written history!
     
    We’re giving readers a link to a chart showing the Cardinal Climax. Planetary Alignment for Aug. 1, 2010, from New York CityWhat do you see?
     
    This is the view of the planets from New York City on Aug. 1, at 6am. We have the most planets in the tightest alignments and at the supposedly 'sensitive' Zero degrees of Cardinal signs. It makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
     
    I looked at records going back to the 1800’s, and this is the most difficult alignment I found. When I was at a conference in Boston last month, someone said this was the most difficult alignment they have seen in the last "1,000 years." Another person told me this is the worst alignment in "10,000 years."
     
    What are possible consequences?
     
    Worst cases include a nuclear accident. Nuclear war. Massive societal collapse. Maybe a pole flip, which can wipe out nearly everything.
     
    Cardinal Climax is especially intimidating because of the proximity to the widely touted Mayan Calendar End Date. Plus, the Christians are looking for the Return of Jesus and/or the Rapture, the Muslims await the return of the umteenth Imam, the White Buffalo has been born, and Jews are fighting over the right to rebuild Solomon's Temple on the 'temple mount' in Jerusalem. These are all signs of “end times” by many different cultures.
     
    The one thing most convincing to me is that there are more people alive on the planet today than all who have ever lived in recorded history. So it may be that every soul is on board for this event!
     
    At a recent 1180, did the S&P 500 already peak for 2010?
     
    The top may be this month or in May, based on normal seasonal and astrologic patterns.
     
    Will Cardinal Climax cause just U.S. stocks to fall? Or is this a global meltdown?
     
    Definitely global.
     
    If I sell my stocks, as you advise, where do I put my money?
     
    The best money will be made on the downside in shorts, stock index futures, negative ETF’s, and put options. However, we do not recommend that subscribers buy options—especially if they are not seasoned traders. With options, you can get the direction right but then maybe not get paid in usable currency before the whole system melts down.
     
    Inflationists advise buying commodities, to protect against the 21% year-over-year increase in Federal Reserve assets, and the 15% year-over-year increase in U.S. public debt.
     
    We are probably seeing a peak in general optimism about the economy and commodity prices. When suspicion arises that a double dip or worse is about to return, we will see the commodity averages slip into the tank. Even assets in the ground will not hold against a worldwide depression that is well on its way.
     
    Deflationists say buy long-term U.S. Treasuries, because it will take years to reduce a 375% debt-GDP ratio, and because the M1 money multiplier is barely pulsing, at 0.8x.
     
    We’d rather be long German, Swiss or Australian bonds, although U.S. bonds will probably do well on the initial declines. Do not overstay as the U.S. Dollar will come down hard. The United States will come apart in this Depression!
     
    Besides selling stocks, what other precautions do you advise?
     
    Our markets may be the least of our worries, given this powerful and chaotic frame. The Mormon mandate of keeping two years worth of food and water in your home is common sense.
     
    How do we know when it is safe to own stocks again?
     
    "When CNBC becomes a sports station!,” to quote my friend Jim Grant.
     
    You have 55 years of investing experience. What have you learned?
     
    Nearly all of our frustrations in the market result from our unfulfilled expectations about what we thought a market ‘should’ do. No one knows the future.
     
    Also, investing is probabilistic. So if you think knowing how to ‘read’ planetary alignments increases your probability of success, then get planetary literate.
     
    Thank you, Mr. Crawford.
     
     
     
    Postscript:
     
    As described in my book It’s Earnings That Count (McGraw-Hill, 2004), I look for companies that have authentic earnings power, durable competitive advantages, and sell at a discount to intrinsic value. So why write about a technique that is diametric to my Ben Graham-inspired formula? (To learn more, please read this column http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/12/28/let-scrooge-make-you-rich.aspx by Tim Beyers of The Motley Fool.)
     
    First, this unorthodox investing method fascinates me, and I figure other market-obsessed Seeking Alpha readers are interested, as well.
     
    Second, Mr. Crawford has made some brilliant calls. So if he thinks mid-2010 is difficult, that's newsworthy.
     
    Third, the planetary outlook on U.S. stocks is similar to my view, although our approaches differ. From my price-and-earnings perch, the Wilshire 5000 sells at a lofty 23 times earnings, and the S&P 500 sells at 21 times the average of the last ten years’ worth of profits (i.e., the Shiller CAPE ratio). If you plan to own a stock index fund for the next decade or two, do not expect to get richer buying at these levels.
     
    U.S. Government bonds are even less attractive. In terms of valuation, the 30-year Treasury sells for 21 times earnings (the reciprocal of its earnings yield), and the flagship 10-year issue sells at a Himalayan 26x. Also, since Federal debt and contingencies like Social Security and Medicare are now at fifty times annual tax receipts, our triple-A credit is a downgrade "lock," which will push bond prices lower. 
     
    In sum, let's hope Mr. Crawford's dour outlook is wrong. But what's the risk of taking a few precautions?, "just in case." So please, pass the MRE.


    Disclosure: No positions
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Comments (28)
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  • Wild Brine
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I was originally a banker working on the International scene in various parts of the world - including Wall Street! This was in the mid 1950s and '60s. In the late '60s while back in Canada on leave I became very infatuated and moved by a Canadian Buddhist monk in Toronto. At one point he shared with a small group of us a vision he had. He saw the growing chaos that would be evolving on this earth. His advice - "Go North" - there it will be safe. There we could create small communities and bring people together to move through the approaching time of "Cleansing", and be able to help and inspire others of a new way for Humanity to live on this earth. It seems we have now arrived at this pivotal point on our calendar.
    I live in the Yukon in northern Canada with no regrets.! Michael.
    5 Apr 2010, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • User 696990
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    what makes you think a monk is in touch with the world outside of spiritualy?
    30 Jul 2010, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Wild Brine
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    My Bio and picture are available at <missionignition.net/bt...;
    6 Apr 2010, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Jetspiral
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    About 20 years ago a psychic in Winnipeg that the police have used told me Arch & I used to work together. They also told me I would make a lot of money shorting the S&P with options during a crash. Arch was going to be important in helping me time this event as well a major earthquake was going to occur around the time of the high.

     

    I did make money during the crash of 2008 based on elliott & the Mars -Uranus crash cycle from Arches research. I do not think there was a major earthquake @ the time of the high. If a crash does occur this summer I will most likely be short. I have seen with my own eyes that planetary alignment does effect the market. Darren
    6 Apr 2010, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • billgeer
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the subscription. I followed Arch many years ago during a relatively flat market, so not much happened. I agree we are overbought right now, and if this continues, the rubber band gets very tight and we have a big bang! Bill
    15 Apr 2010, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Jason Farkas
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Arch that 2010 is going to be associated with some type of significant market disruption. Our work at Elliott Wave International suggests that safety is of paramount importance for the next few years. It's alarming how few investors are positioned for safety.
    25 Apr 2010, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • buryl
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting article! Another critical time may be Sep.22nd - Oct.30th 2010.
    For solar diagrams and more information please see buryl.com
    4 May 2010, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • jeetu
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    hi, i'm jeetu from bombay, india.
    this article on cardinal climax is doing the rounds on the e-mails, now wht i really wonder ( i know no one can predict the exact future), would u advice to go short on the nifty futures for the month of august - september 2010?
    17 Jul 2010, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • jeetu
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    hi , this is jeetu from mumbai (india), into the stock markets ,,, ofcourse anyones basic attempt to dabble (i'll say), is to make quick money,,,, but realized that it does'nt come easy,,,
    to cut things short ,,,, have lost a chunk of money in shorting the indian nifty futures for the month of july '10,,, then cam across the email sent about the cardinal climax, so was wondering if i should go short in august '10.
    17 Jul 2010, 05:14 AM Reply Like
  • Hewitt Heiserman
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jeetu -

     

    If you have to ask me that question, then you have not done your research.

     

    My advice? Read Ben Graham. Then you will be able to answer your question.

     

    Hewitt
    27 Jul 2010, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • gunny57
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Hewitt,
    I red Ben Graham, I have studied technicals, and ave developed sensible, simple long term algos.
    I manage pension and retirement money in New Zealand ( aplace as good as Yukon if the worse materialize, I guess..).
    I strongly agree with your PE earnings, have derisked everything and sold out all the equities remaining in this bounce, against my partners' views ( I am the CIO...I can do it, although the air in the office gets a bit colder..).
    I am in bonds and started shorting ETFs hoping I can protect my old folks and allow them a serene retirement..
    For the doomsday view?? Well, these are two islands, food self sufficient, and I own a solid Springfield 1903 rifle 30.06 as extreme insurance. I just hope my worries remain confined to the old folks' pensions.
    Good luck....and good nite.
    28 Jul 2010, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • mrmarina
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    As a veteran trader and T-Bond pit broker from the 80's, I can tell you that while some who are not familiar with Arch may dismiss his unorthodox approach, he has earned the respect of those who have been around a while. Regardless of what my "traditional analysis" - (whatever that means) may suggest at the time, I will not take a position counter to Arch during his periods of interest.
    21 Jul 2010, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • buryl
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    New book: PLANETARY INFLUENCES by Buryl Payne, Ph.
    physicist ans psychologist.
    Several times are coming up that will be important for investors.
    Diagrams and informatrion.
    Plese comtact buryl.payne@gmail.com
    22 Jul 2010, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • scalaada
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    LOL. Interesting title, the stock market usually experience a sell off in the summer. "Sell in May and go away" Smart investors buy in Nov and sell in May.
    28 Jul 2010, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • nonidiomatic
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I am 100% BEARish in my portfolio now, but based on fundamentals, not what Neptune and Jupiter are doing this week. I can say that in the 50 years I've looked into the night skies at a sparkling Jupiter, Venus or Mars; not once did I feel them exerting anykind of force on me. And out of the dozens of prognosticators of doom, not once have any of them come to fruition. (I know alot of seers come forward after an event occured, claiming they foretold it, but when you dig a little ways there is usually nothing substantial or they said it may happen or may not happen and they can pull out of context, what suits them).
    1 Aug 2010, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • bozo the clown
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    hey its 4:56 am new york 1st August. did I miss something?
    2 Aug 2010, 05:04 AM Reply Like
  • James Altucher
    , contributor
    Comments (364) | Send Message
     
    Stocks have nothing to do with planetary alignment. And also the trailing earnings for 10 years are skewed by the massive recession of 2008. Companies are beating and guiding up righit now. Thats why the market is rebounding. Good luck to everyone. Have faith but don't look to the stars.
    2 Aug 2010, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Hewitt Heiserman
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 1. Long distance "best wishes" to James Altucher. He is smart, funny, creative, contrarian, tireless, an excellent writer, and a fountain of actionable ideas. Big fan from way back!

     

    2. To James' point about the 2008 recession penalizing the current PE10 (low earnings = high PE, all else equal), here's the counter argument: rapid growth in public and private debt, which now stands at a Mount Everest-like 375% of GDP, may have also artificially STIMULATED consumer demand (think the housing market), thus boosting corporate earnings above their long-term, equilibrium rate. This is why I use PE10; it blends peak 2006, when the S&P 500 earned $82 a share, with trough 2008, when stocks earned $15 a stub. Sustainable earnings are somewhere in the middle, and this is what PE10 captures.

     

    3. As for the relationship between planetary alignments and the stock market, RBS on July 7 issued a paper stating that "a study of correlations between the moon phases and behaviour of financial markets...suggests a medium-to-long term trading strategy...can significantly increase profits."

     

    If you invested 1000 pounds in the FTSE 100 in 1984, by now you'd have about 5,130 pounds, per RBS. (The FTSE is an index of the UK's 100 most valuable public companies.) But if you bought the FTSE on the new moon and sold on the full moon, you'd have 12,116 pounds, or more than double a passive, buy-and-hold, strategy. Not sure if trading costs are included here.

     

    RBS also studied the S&P 500, and found that 1000 pounds invested in 1928 is now worth 64,000 pounds. But using a moon trading strategy, that same 1000 pounds today equals 1,500,000 pounds.

     

    "This analysis supports the theory of a correlation between index prices and moon phases," the paper states.

     

    A new moon, RBS explains, traditionally symbolizes a period of low energy, and a full moon a period of high energy.

     

    The next new moon is August 10. The next full moon is August 24.

     

    Here is a link to RBS's website. strategy.rbsm.com/stra.... The article, "Sheer Lunacy staring at the Heavens," was written by Tom Pelc and Dmytro Bondar.
    2 Aug 2010, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Dogeatsdog
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    What I have learned is that the global elite use astrology. I happen to believe they want to bring their vision of a world currency and a world government using economic collapse as the catalyst. I have read what they think of the common man and it isn't very good. So if the stars do are able to predict a market crash, I suspect it would be with these elites help.

     

    Millionaires don't have astrologers, billionaires do.
    J.P. Morgan

     

    This is a good read which avoids the tinfoil hat talk but points out how the collapse is being designed

     

    www.canadafreepress.co...
    5 Aug 2010, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • FiatFxWorld
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    HH: I saw the RBS paper and after doing the same exercise myself have concluded that they most likely had a mistake in their calculations. There is indeed a slight advantage in investing during the right moon phase it is no where near as big as the gentlemen from RBS suggest. My own calculations aside, just using common sense it seems most unlikely that you can obtain 400bps+ of outperformance per year since 1928 just by buying the right moon phase...
    14 Aug 2010, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • kangeloux
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Now that we are half way through the month, the news were the Flood in Pakistan, Russian fire and Several air plane crashes. (Planes as crosses). Would it be possible to go back with the author and check his predictions of a market crash? IS he still expecting one?
    15 Aug 2010, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Hewitt Heiserman
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From Aug. 9th issue of Crawford Perspectives:

     

    "We have re-iterated in CP letters over several months that “…our
    best bet is for a potential Crash between May 1 and November
    1…sometime during this interim, a very serious decline will take place,
    and we imagine it will be much worse than a double dip…” and this:
    “The dichotomy arises from the Bradley Model showing the Crash
    period as down from March and culminating with this configuration. On
    the other hand, our Mars-Uranus Crash Cycle …bodes the Crash period
    AFTER the completion of the massive alignment.” [CP Jan 11, 2010]

     

    To learn more, subscribe to www.crawfordperspectiv....

     

    I find Arch's views on markets fascinating and unorthodox, and I enjoy reading each issue.

     

    Best wishes,

     

    Hewitt
    16 Aug 2010, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • kangeloux
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, understand too that September lines well with market declines probably associated with very quick light and temperature changes and I guess that might be the brew for a perfect storm.

     

    On the other hand have been reading Psyque and Cosmos from Tarnas and it makes profund insights in Archetypal Astrological Analysis and recommend it strongly as a framework for wider undertanding of historical events.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mike--M
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    <blockquote>
    Will Cardinal Climax cause just U.S. stocks to fall? Or is this a global meltdown?

     

    Definitely global.
    </blockquote>

     

    And yet in the three month period spanning what was supposed to be the most significant astrological event in thousands of years, what has happened to the World's stock markets? A big, fat nothing.

     

    So, finally with a prediction rather than a posteriori attempts to match events up to planetary alignments, we have the acid test of astrology, and how does astrology fare? It fails. Miserably.

     

    I am sure you will be able to cobble together some further a posteriori explanation and justification, but that is kind of the point: the whole thing is sufficiently vague and wishy-washy that you can always explain anything away. But when it comes to the real crunch, astrology has zero predictive power.
    5 Sep 2010, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • CheshireKid
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Astrology has zero predictive power... or we have zero reading power?

     

    The average person has access to approximately 'jack shit' in regards to their knowledge base. Compared to what there is to know, everyone you meet will be under-informed. This is furthered by the fact that most people are overly adherent to what they're taught and even more neglectful of the reality that things function on their own terms, not the linguistic or numerical ones we assign them for our convenience.

     

    None of us have the necessary understanding to say what astrology has to offer, and most of us do nothing more than take a few glimpses, mash up an opinion chalk-full of over-confident under-comprehension and spew it like ours is the word of God.
    21 Dec 2010, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • CheshireKid
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Astrology has zero predictive power... or we have zero reading power?

     

    The average person has access to approximately 'jack shit' in regards to their knowledge base. Compared to what there is to know, everyone you meet will be under-informed. To worsen that, most people are overly adherent to what they are taught and overly neglectful of the concept that things function on their own terms, not the linguistic or numerical ones we assign them for our convenience.

     

    None of us have the necessary understanding to say what astrology has to offer, and most of us do nothing more than take a few glimpses to find whatever supports what we already think, mash up a more complete opinion chalk-full of over-confident under-comprehension and then spew it like ours is the word of God.
    21 Dec 2010, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • kangeloux
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Mr Heiserman, would you be kind to provide a follow up on this article a year later. Even though the accuracy of predictive power of astrology is in question, I do tend to believe there are cycles in human behavior. So the market is in no better shape a year later. Do you have more insights from Arch Crawford?
    5 Sep 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Hewitt Heiserman
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Kangeloux -

     

    Thanks for your interest. I am writing a new book, so this is taking up all my time.

     

    My book is a series of checklists an analyst can use to guide them through the investment cycle, from idea-generation to research to ownership to sale. Looks like 31-32 chapters.

     

    The book has ratios, tips, business models, best practices, etc. I have collected for 20 years. But the catalyst for writing this book came from reading in May Atul Gawande's "The Checklist Investor." Although the bulk of Dr. Gawande's excellent book is about medicine, there is a chapter that shows how Mohnish Pabrai and a few other investors use checklists to improve returns.

     

    www.slideshare.net/MSh....

     

    If you haven't read "The Checklist Investor," you should.

     

    Hewitt
    6 Sep 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
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