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John Kosar, CMT, is Director of Research of Asbury Research LLC ( Since 2005 Asbury Research has been providing in-depth, comprehensive financial market research to professional investors that understand the value and importance of incorporating technical,... More
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Logic-Over-Emotion Investing
  • US Interest Rates: Keep An Eye On The NOB Spread  2 comments
    Nov 30, 2010 11:30 AM

    US Interest Rates: Keep An Eye On The NOB Spread

    In our November 22nd 2009 blog posting (yep, about a year ago) entitled NOB Spread Points To Further Decline In US Interest Rates, we said:

    "...recent widening in the spread has positioned it close to a multi-year wide extreme that has previously coincided with or led many of the most important bottoms in long dated US Treasury prices over the past decade. Accordingly, these data suggest that benchmark Treasury prices are either at or close to another similarly-important bottom now."

    Although our market call above was about a month early from a market timing standpoint, it essentially defined a major bottom in long dated Treasury prices and a major peak in benchmark US interest rates as the CBOT 30-Year T-Bond contract rose by 24-09 (more than $24,000 per contract) between January 4th and August 26th 2010 while the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note coincidentally declined by 135 basis points or 35% during the same period.

    This is an enormous move in interest rates in just 8 months.

    In our Monday November 29th Keys To This Week report, one of our 11 "Keys" for US Interest Rates and Treasuries points out that the NOB Spread has recently moved to a decade-long wide extreme, which suggests that another sustained trend in benchmark US interest rates may be ready to get underway.

    The chart from that report appears below, and is worth paying attention to.

    Disclosure: no positions
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Comments (2)
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  • Walt/frustrated
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
    Where can one keep an eye on the NOB Spread, cannot find a free source


    14 May 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Walt/frustrated
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
    I like to trade stocks and options.


    Am a retired mech eng'r.
    14 May 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
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