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Will The October Stock Market Rally Continue? Watch The Semis.

The following (green font) is an excerpt and a chart from our Monday March 12th Keys To This Week report. Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report by logging into our Research Center.

In this report we identified the relative performance of the SOX Index versus the broad market S&P 500 as one of 11 key factors to upcoming US stock market direction.


excerpt from Asbury Research's Keys To This Week
The US Stock Market
March 12th, 2012

Key #4> Relative Performance: PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) vs. S&P 500 (SPX) Indexes. NEAR TO INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH. Chart 2 below displays the daily relative performance of SOX vs. SPX in the upper panel (green line), quarterly overbought and oversold extremes by SOX versus SPX in the middle panel (red line), and SPX by itself in the lower panel (black bars).

Chart 2

The red vertical lines between all three panels show that the market-leading SOX Index has just started to work off mid February quarterly overbought extremes versus the S&P 500, and that previous similar extremes have coincided with or led most of the intermediate term trends of relative underperformance by the SOX since 2006 - and coincident declines by the broad market S&P 500.

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Stocks: SOXX, SPY