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Long term investor, with a background of 15 years in the tech business. Investments in stocks and real estate for the last 20 years.
  • Tesla Sales In Norway Blowing Records Out Of The Water This March 25 comments
    Mar 25, 2014 4:42 PM | about stocks: TSLA

    According to the grapevine, the new registrations of the Tesla Model S in Norway are going to beat the old records quite profoundly this March, and probably set a world-wide record for most Model S cars registered in a single month.

    I went to reserve my own Tesla Model S today, and speaking to my sales person, who I have quite a good rapport with from before, revealed when pushed that the new car registrations this month are going to be around a thousand cars. This is quite high, as the highest month so far has been around 500 cars.

    Looking for confirmation of the rumor, I have scoured the forums, and picked up a post by a new owner reporting that the main port (Drammen) was seeing deliveries of 80-100 Tesla Model S per day this week and last. The scene was reported as "resembling an anthill of frenzy". Transports with more cars are arriving several times per day.

    Local staff has reportedly been getting help from staff visiting from the US and the Netherlands, as well as flying in staff from other Tesla stores in Norway to handle the volume. A total of 20-30 staff members handling deliveries. And remember.. this is only ONE of the Norwegian locations we are talking about (Drammen).

    Trondheim is reportedly sending out 130 cars this week. Stavanger is reporting a three digit number as well.

    A person tracking new car registrations via official channels have confirmed that until yesterday (24. March) a total of 898 Model S have been registered in Norway in March. Today, at 8pm, there had been another 177 Model S registered, bringing the total for the Model S so far to 1075.

    Some owners who have yet to receive their cars have reported that their deliveries are now scheduled for Saturday, which means that the deliveries are probably planned to continue at the same pace on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and parts of Saturday (and possibly Monday).

    If we take a closer look at the numbers, they should be at least as follows for Q-on-Q growth:

    Q4: October/November/December 2013: 98/527/553 = 1178 cars

    Q1: January/February/March 2014: 132/431/1075+ = 1638+ cars

    That is a Q-on-Q growth of at least 39% in the first quarter from the forth quarter (which was the first quarter of Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway).

    I will keep posting as I learn more about what is going on, and estimate on the final number for Q1.

    The Tesla Model S sales tanking yet? My money is on "no".

    Further information from forum posts (in Norwegian) in the following link:

    elbilforum.no/forum/index.php/topic,13330.15.html

    UPDATE: Pictures last night at 7pm

    UPDATE 27.03.2014: Total sales for March were at 1248 until end of business yesterday. That brings Q1 total to 1811 cars, an increase of 54% from Q4 2013.

    UPDATE 01.04.2014: Final numbers are 1492 cars registered in March, Q1 total 2055, growth from Q4 is 742%!

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long TSLA.

    Themes: Sales, Norway, March, 2014 Stocks: TSLA
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Comments (25)
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  • Ford Prefect 1969
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    NICE
    25 Mar 2014, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They delivered another 59 Tesla's today in Drammen (1 location). That would be bring the total up to at least 1134 cars so far in Norway in March, and Q-on-Q to 44%.

     

    PS: The most registered cars in any month in Norway was January 2007 when 1267 VW Passat was registered after the tax change that favored diesel cars. Can Tesla become the most registered car in any month in history in Norway? That would just be absurd.
    26 Mar 2014, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Agnes59
    , contributor
    Comments (435) | Send Message
     
    So much about TSLA tanking. The shorts are trying their damnest to get this stock to go down.Thanks for sharing this info.
    26 Mar 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Doc's Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Update TSLA..... After advising to sell the stock on the high day when it hit 265 and advising that the odds are 99% that she will drop to the price never traded, 118, filling that gap before any further move up in the stock (despite a positive general market).... Then Monday I advised buying at the 110-115 level for a two to three day rally or 227 . I advised the sale because I expected a retest of the lows........

     

    NOW......I advise that the stock may break its low, especially if the market is weak for the forth day in a row tomorrow, but do not sell short here, instead there are two better options: Bulls::1. buy half what you want to own on a scale down 10% every 3 points lower till you own half of what your looking to buy total or the stock stops declining. You can buy another 20% if the stock starts to outperform the general market (IE: Dow down 50 points and TSLA looking to close 2-3 higher). Option 2: Await a day where the stock's action causes a reversal to the upside (closes within 1/3 of its high price on the range the stock had on that day....especially if the market doesn't have that same pattern) . Place a stop order to sell 1 point under that days low...
    Sell half your position on any three day rally from that reversal close... this will give you a net long price under your stop order.(adjust your stop order to reflect the smaller amount of stock you now own.
    Shorts (bears): Await a rally regardless of how long it may take to rally to a price near 227-232. If you are already short, place a stop above the last rally top (227).
    26 Mar 2014, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If you don't believe the numbers, check this video from this morning:
    http://bit.ly/O0l9rz

     

    Total is now standing at 1248 for March, which means the Tesla Model S is the most registered car in any month in any year in Norway.... ever.
    27 Mar 2014, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tech Talker
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Is 1500 deliveries around the corner?
    27 Mar 2014, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could be. People are reporting getting delivery scheduled for tomorrow and Saturday.

     

    Remember that the previous "highest month" for Tesla was approx. 550, so 1250 is already a pretty shocking number.
    27 Mar 2014, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6237) | Send Message
     
    The answer for great EV sales is simple. Subsidies.

     

    Now we have more makers like Renault ZOE* rushing into Norway because the golden age will not last forever: http://bit.ly/1fRQlBQ

     

    What will happen after 50k EVs are sold in Norway?

     

    There will still be subsidies, but reduced in value over time. Other perks like free parking and buslane use also can't be forever as more and more people drive EVs.

     

    _____
    * http://bit.ly/1fq5Zn3
    27 Mar 2014, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6237) | Send Message
     
    PS: The same anomaly can be seen in Nissan LEAF sales, almost half the European sales are in Norway:

     

    "“Without Norway, which, thanks to its sky-high electric car subsidies and sweetheart electric car use regulations, still stands out as the only true paradise for electric car users on the planet, February’s electric car sales in Western Europe have actually dropped by close on 10 per cent.”"

     

    http://bit.ly/1fq9NVa
    27 Mar 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Ford Prefect 1969
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    @tftf

     

    Sigh. Norway does not have any EV subsidies, just no EV penalties.
    28 Mar 2014, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6237) | Send Message
     
    Call it what you want, these are the facts. Taken from Wikipedia because I don't want to type everything myself:

     

    All-electric cars are exempt in Norway from all non-recurring vehicle fees, including sales tax. Electric vehicles are also exempt from the annual road tax, all public parking fees, and toll payments, as well as being able to use bus lanes. These incentives are in effect until 2018 or until the 50,000 EV target is achieved.[37][38] At rate of growth reached by early 2014, the target of 50,000 EV registered could be met by the third quarter of 2015.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gHtXOV

     

    I don't know why these shouldn't be called subsidies/incentives.

     

    Once 50k EVs are reached, subsidies could be reduced.

     

    As new brands like Renault and VW (ZOE, e-Golf...) rush to Norway, that limit could be reached more quickly - I expect late Q1 or Q2 2015.
    31 Mar 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Rik1381
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    There is support among all political parties in Norway to extend the EV incentives. EV access to bus lanes might end, but tax incentives are likely to continue. http://bit.ly/1gHD4iI
    31 Mar 2014, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Also, it has been agreed in the coalition govt. agreement (signed last november) to cut sales tax for leasing of EVs for companies. It has just not been put into place yet. With that, companies would be on par with the rest of the people, when it comes to the tax breaks for EVs.

     

    Currently, companies leasing EVs have to pay 25% sales tax on the leasing car, which is 25% less than if it was to buy it outright. Seeing as companies prefer (require) to lease cars instead of buying them for their employees, this would be a major demand driver!
    1 Apr 2014, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6237) | Send Message
     
    That's all nice when tax money is available in abundance. That money is mainly coming from oil export in the case of Norway (so pollution is simply exported to other countries):

     

    "The simple explanation for Norway’s penchant for state capitalism is oil. When it was discovered in the North Sea in late 1969 it transformed the country’s economy. Today Norway is the world’s eighth-largest oil exporter. Petroleum accounts for 30% of the government’s revenues as well as a quarter of the country’s value added."

     

    http://econ.st/1mus9sY

     

    Similar for other rich enclaves like Hong Kong, Masdar City and other regions with "green initiatives" around the globe.

     

    This is the exception to the rule worldwide. Or do you know many countries with a public budget surplus?

     

    Somehow car drivers have to pay for the roads and infrastructure over time even if everybody switches to EVs.
    1 Apr 2014, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • colden89
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Your knowledge of Norwegian finances is sorely lacking. The Norwegian national budget is financed by ordinary taxes; 75% of the budget is simple income tax, corporate tax and sales tax. The remaining 25% is financed by other sources including capital gains from stocks and oil revenue etc.
    1 Apr 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tech Talker
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to daily updates on registrations if it's not too much trouble.
    28 Mar 2014, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At the moment we are seeing a slowdown in registrations, which could mean that the last cars that will be delivered this month (Monday) have already been registered and are ready to be delivered. If so, the total now is at 1468 cars for March!

     

    Q1 total is then standing at 2031 cars.
    Q4 was 1178 cars, so that represents a 72,5% increase from the previous quarter.

     

    Looking forward to the media coverage over here once the final numbers are published :)
    29 Mar 2014, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just as a piece of curiosity, the total deliveries for March 2013 were 10735, which would mean that if the deliveries are the same this year, Tesla has delivered pretty much 1 in every 7 new cars in March of this year.

     

    I think it's safe to say Norway loves Tesla :)
    29 Mar 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • HanneSobek
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    @Ford:

     

    How would you call an exemption from all non-recurring vehicle fees including 25% VAT if not a subsidy?
    "Without adding value to the benefit of driving in bus lanes, the annual benefit of owning an electric car in Oslo is estimated at US$8,200 per car, per year." [http://bit.ly/1aH9Z3W]

     

    Sorry but that is a state subsidy which other non-oil rich countries can basically not afford...
    30 Mar 2014, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ford Prefect 1969
    , contributor
    Comments (2267) | Send Message
     
    @HanneSobek

     

    I think people can look at it how they wish. If you are asking me I think of subsidies as money that is taken from taxpayers and given to a third party to lower its cost for example.

     

    I would not look at the absence of taxation in the same category as a subsidy (the Norwegian government has not handed out any money to Tesla or its customers). On a level playing field all cars in the USA are also absent Norway's tax on ICE vehicles (including the ICE vehicles). I do not believe that equates to a subsidy on all cars. It is what it is, a lack of an additional tax burden.

     

    In the case of Tesla, Norwegians can buy cars at the same cost that is available in USA without the added benefit of a $7.5 K rebate on Federal income tax and without State subsidies, plus the cost of transit to Norway.

     

    In Norway, a Tesla Model S is neither subsidised nor taxed. In the USA it is subsidised, in China it is taxed.

     

    I think as long as the world view one applies is consistent then it is all the same thing. Personally I feel it is more correct to state that ICE vehicles in Norway are heavily taxed than to say Model S is subsidised.

     

    One could argue that in Norway the use of the public road is offered to EVs without an accounting for the cost of road maintenance. In most parts of the USA the same is true.
    31 Mar 2014, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That is very well summed up, Ford Prefect.

     

    No money was paid from the Norwegian govt. to either Tesla or the buyer of the car. Is it cheaper, for an avg. person, to buy a Tesla than a heavily taxed ICE car? Yes, indeed. Is that why many people are buying into the electric cars? It used to be, yes. After the Tesla, there is one more reason; the car is awesome! Just look at the smiles of anyone coming back after a testdrive.
    31 Mar 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • glemmestad
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, I checked my database again, and the data now says 1486 cars registered in March, bringing the total for Q1 to 2049, or a growth from Q4 to 74%.
    31 Mar 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • J*H*M
    , contributor
    Comments (279) | Send Message
     
    Simpleton shorts just can't believe that "demand" doubled in one quarter. Must be a trick of the Devil.
    31 Mar 2014, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • I need a bailout
    , contributor
    Comments (1757) | Send Message
     
    Corvette growth in 2014 is 158% compared to Tesla at 74%. Disruptive technology at work!
    2 Apr 2014, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Selters
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Many Americans have read about Norway's incentives for EVs, but they don't seem to know about all the disincentives against gasoline and diesel powered personal vehicles. If you want to buy a new car in Norway and drive it legally in the road, you need to pay a so called registration tax, ranging anywhere from 25% to 500% on top of the price of the car itself:

     

    Examples of what we are used to paying for new cars in Norway:

     

    Toyota Prius: $55 000
    Volkswagen Passat 2.0 Diesel: $65 000
    Mercedes E350: $200 000
    BMW M5: $380 000

     

    As you can see, performance cars are only for the filthy rich in Norway. No wonder people are going crazy about the Tesla Model S. Once the EV incentives disappear, Tesla sales will fall to zero.
    8 Apr 2014, 10:05 PM Reply Like
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  • $TSLA registered 1486 cars in March in Norway, bringing the total for Q1 to 2049, or a growth from Q4 to 74%. http://seekingalpha.com/p/1np13
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  • $TSLA car registrations for March in Norway beating all previous records by at least 100%. Total now stands at 1134 cars for March.
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