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TradeProphet
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An active trader for the past ten years,interested in long and short positions. Software Programmer,Mathematician and activer trader. I have created TradeProphet system to allow the trading community,position themselves with the upper hand against the enormous market information.
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TradeProphet
  • TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/17/2014 0 comments
    May 17, 2014 1:09 PM

    For the week ,the S&P500 index opened at 1,880.03 and closed at 1,877.86 making ,again, almost no movement (down about 0.1%).

    Looking at the support resistance picture (below)

    (click to enlarge)
    S&P500 index support resistance picture

    Again, once the 1870 level was broken, the S&P500 held its ground above it, which is a good sign the sellers are willing to buy at a higher price.
    From a technical perspective, we actually see higher lows and highs above the 1,870 level.

    As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:
    (click here for help on the info below)

    Ticker

    Position

    Profit/Loss Ratio

    Max. Draw Down

    Sharpe

    Std. Deviation

    Alpha

    Beta

    Order Date

    S&P500

    Long

    5.65

    5.00%

    12.40

    0.08

    18.79%

    0.75

    16/05/2014

    DOW30

    Close Long

    8.27

    8.00%

    16.22

    0.04

    13.83%

    1.59

    16/05/2014

    DOW30

    Long

    6.04

    4.00%

    12.12

    0.07

    15.96%

    1.67

    16/05/2014

    Nasdaq100

    Long

    5.19

    17.00%

    16.18

    0.07

    24.91%

    8.01

    16/05/2014

    Short S&P500

    Close Long

    6.34

    1.00%

    12.82

    0.05

    12.04%

    -1.67

    11/04/2014

    VIX

    Close Long

    7.41

    7.00%

    17.53

    0.16

    55.44%

    -5.27

    16/05/2014

    TradeProphet Triggers

    This week the picture is a little bit more blurry than last week, All three major indices still have a "long" trigger, The DOW received yet one more trigger to close the long position.
    The Short ETF (NYSEARCA:SH) has a "close long" trigger (which, of course, is a good sign). So despite the move on Wednesday and Thursday, the recommendation is for the long position.

    Growth Model Portfolio

    Lets now look at the Growth portfolio, TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :
    (click here for help on the info below)

    Ticker

    Position

    Profit/Loss Ratio

    Max. Draw Down

    Sharpe

    Std. Deviation

    Alpha

    Beta

    Order Date

    LOCK

    Long

    20.43

    0.00%

    22.12

    0.04

    17.46%

    0.27

    12/05/2014

    TradeProphet Triggers

    The only suggestion for the growth model portfolio is LOCK.

    Value Model Portfolio

    Any good triggers in the Value portfolio? Let's look at the issued triggers:

    Ticker

    Position

    Profit/Loss Ratio

    Max. Draw Down

    Sharpe

    Std. Deviation

    Alpha

    Beta

    Order Date

    HLF

    Long

    442.59

    0.00%

    13.63

    0.18

    47.34%

    3.52

    16/05/2014

    KLIC

    Long

    17.84

    21.00%

    12.39

    0.37

    88.33%

    7.32

    29/04/2014

    TradeProphet Triggers

    Both HLF, and KLIC are a very risky play which I don't think is a wise move regarding current high levels .I would avoid both moves.

    Best undervalued Sectors (And best picks within that sector)

    Ticker

    Position

    Profit/Loss Ratio

    Max. Draw Down

    Sharpe

    Std. Deviation

    Alpha

    Beta

    Order Date

    XSW

    Long

    43.08

    1.00%

    24.22

    0.03

    14.57%

    0.83

    24/03/2014

    TradeProphet Triggers

    Best sector for the week is the Software & Services sector as reflected by the XSW ETF. Best Pick is ADP with following ratings:

    Ticker

    Position

    Profit/Loss Ratio

    Max. Draw Down

    Sharpe

    Std. Deviation

    Alpha

    Beta

    Order Date

    ADP

    Long

    10.62

    9.00%

    19.37

    0.06

    21.33%

    2.66

    16/05/2014

    TradeProphet Triggers

    Conclusion time - Last week we gave the long signal, and the market moved wildly up and then down, the fact that it technically remained above the 1,870 level is a good sign for us to be cautiously optimistic.

    Happy trading,
    The TradeProphet team.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SPY, DIA, QQQ, SH, VXX, LOCK, HLF, KLIC, XSW, ADP over the next 72 hours.

    Themes: SPY, DIA, QQQ, SH, VIX, LOCK, HLF, KLIC, XSW, ADP
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