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TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/17/2014

For the week ,the S&P500 index opened at 1,880.03 and closed at 1,877.86 making ,again, almost no movement (down about 0.1%).

Looking at the support resistance picture (below)

(click to enlarge)Click to enlarge
S&P500 index support resistance picture

Again, once the 1870 level was broken, the S&P500 held its ground above it, which is a good sign the sellers are willing to buy at a higher price.
From a technical perspective, we actually see higher lows and highs above the 1,870 level.

As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:
(click here for help on the info below)

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

S&P500

Long

5.65

5.00%

12.40

0.08

18.79%

0.75

16/05/2014

DOW30

Close Long

8.27

8.00%

16.22

0.04

13.83%

1.59

16/05/2014

DOW30

Long

6.04

4.00%

12.12

0.07

15.96%

1.67

16/05/2014

Nasdaq100

Long

5.19

17.00%

16.18

0.07

24.91%

8.01

16/05/2014

Short S&P500

Close Long

6.34

1.00%

12.82

0.05

12.04%

-1.67

11/04/2014

VIX

Close Long

7.41

7.00%

17.53

0.16

55.44%

-5.27

16/05/2014

Click to enlarge

TradeProphet Triggers

This week the picture is a little bit more blurry than last week, All three major indices still have a "long" trigger, The DOW received yet one more trigger to close the long position.
The Short ETF (NYSEARCA:SH) has a "close long" trigger (which, of course, is a good sign). So despite the move on Wednesday and Thursday, the recommendation is for the long position.

Growth Model Portfolio

Lets now look at the Growth portfolio, TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :
(click here for help on the info below)

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

LOCK

Long

20.43

0.00%

22.12

0.04

17.46%

0.27

12/05/2014

Click to enlarge

TradeProphet Triggers

The only suggestion for the growth model portfolio is LOCK.

Value Model Portfolio

Any good triggers in the Value portfolio? Let's look at the issued triggers:

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

HLF

Long

442.59

0.00%

13.63

0.18

47.34%

3.52

16/05/2014

KLIC

Long

17.84

21.00%

12.39

0.37

88.33%

7.32

29/04/2014

Click to enlarge

TradeProphet Triggers

Both HLF, and KLIC are a very risky play which I don't think is a wise move regarding current high levels .I would avoid both moves.

Best undervalued Sectors (And best picks within that sector)

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

XSW

Long

43.08

1.00%

24.22

0.03

14.57%

0.83

24/03/2014

Click to enlarge

TradeProphet Triggers

Best sector for the week is the Software & Services sector as reflected by the XSW ETF. Best Pick is ADP with following ratings:

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

ADP

Long

10.62

9.00%

19.37

0.06

21.33%

2.66

16/05/2014

Click to enlarge

TradeProphet Triggers

Conclusion time - Last week we gave the long signal, and the market moved wildly up and then down, the fact that it technically remained above the 1,870 level is a good sign for us to be cautiously optimistic.

Happy trading,
The TradeProphet team.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SPY, DIA, QQQ, SH, VXX, LOCK, HLF, KLIC, XSW, ADP over the next 72 hours.