James Quinn's  Instablog

I've put off writing an article about what is likely to happen in 2013 so I could peruse the thousands of other articles by reputable bloggers, paid pundits, Wall Street shills and captured charlatans to gather their wisdom. It's essential that I make predictions for 2013 so I can write another article in December rationalizing why 90% of my predictions failed to materialize. Reading all of these 2013 prediction articles made things much clearer for me. I now know for sure:

• The stock market will reach an all-time high.
• The stock market will fall 42%.
• The economy will strengthen as the year progresses.
• The economy will descend into a depression.
• The USD will strengthen.
• The USD will collapse.
• Gas prices will set new highs.
• Gas prices will fall below 2012 levels.
• Gold will rise to $10,000 per ounce.
• Gold will drop below $1,000 per ounce.
• We will experience hyperinflation.
• We will experience horrific deflation.
• Obama will compromise with the Republicans and put the country on a path to prosperity.
• Obama will create a debt ceiling crisis and assume dictatorial powers as a result.
• Snooki will be a better mother than Kim Kardashian.
• Honey Boo Boo will beat I Didn't Know I Was Pregnant in the Neilson ratings.

The majority of 2013 prediction articles are written to support the agenda of the writer. Many are trying to sell newsletter subscriptions or investment services. Their predictions will match the theme of their newsletter. Others are Wall Street paid shills who will predict what they are paid to predict by their owners. Then there are the political hacks who tow the party line with their predictions. But no one can top the predictive powers of the CBO. They just put out their ten year updated forecast reflecting the fabulous fiscal cliff deal that saved the country. According to the CBO, the "compromise" to reduce our deficits will add a mere $4 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. I'm sure this will prove to be accurate. Just take a look at their 2002 projection, after passage of the Bush tax cuts:

(click to enlarge)

The CBO predicted the FY2012 surplus would be $641 billion, the national debt would total $3.5 trillion, the debt held by the public would total $1.273 trillion, and GDP would total $17.2 trillion. They missed by that much.

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