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James Quinn
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James Quinn is a senior director of strategic planning for a major university. James has held financial positions with a retailer, homebuilder and university in his 25-year career. Those positions included treasurer, controller, and head of strategic planning. He is married with three boys and... More
My blog:
TheBurningPlatform.com
• ##### FOURTH TURNING PROBABILITIES 1 comment
Aug 4, 2010 10:19 AM

As anyone who has frequented my site for awhile knows, I believe we are in the midst of a Fourth Turning. Anyone who would like to get up to speed on Strauss and Howe’s The Fourth Turning can go to their website to get a refresher course: http://www.fourthturning.com/

I have had a regular email dialogue with Neil Howe. He asked if I could help him with potential scenarios for this Fourth Turning. The truth is that no one knows what will happen in the next 15 years. I was hoping to create a probability matrix that could provide a possible map as to what might happen. Fourth Turnings are always wrenching, painful, dangerous, and change the world order. Therefore, I tried to break the possibilities into 4 categories:

1. Politics
2. Financial/Economic
3. Military
4. Social

I tried to think of scenarios and I applied probability percentages to each scenario. This is where I ran out of ideas. Is there a way to connect these scenarios into a cohesive prediction of the future? The answer may be no. If someone out there has any other scenarios and/or ideas about taking this to the next step, I’d be appreciative of your input.

“The ‘spirit of America’ comes once a saeculum, only through what the ancients called ekpyrosis, nature’s fiery moment of death and discontinuity.  History’s periodic eras of Crisis combust the old social order and give birth to a new. A Fourth Turning is a solstice era of maximum darkness, in which the supply of social order is still falling—but the demand for order is now rising.  It is the saeculum’s hibernal, its time of trial. Nature exacts its fatal payment and pitilessly sorts out the survivors and the doomed.  Pleasures recede, tempests hurt, pretense is exposed, and toughness rewarded—all in a season.”

“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. A Fourth Turning harnesses the seasons of life to bring about a renewal in the seasons of time. In so doing, it provides passage through the great discontinuities of history and closes the full circle of the saeculum. The Fourth Turning is when the Spirit of America reappears, rousing courage and fortitude from the people. History is seasonal, but its outcomes are not foreordained. Much will depend on how tall we stand in the trials to come.”      Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

 Politics % Probability Obama losses Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton 25% Obama wins 2012 Presidential election 45% Obama losses 2012 Presidential election 55% Obama is assassinated and Biden becomes President 10% Tea Party movement becomes a viable 3rd Party 20% Financial/Economic US economy recovers and resumes growth 30% US economy enters a double dip recession 70% Double dip recession morphs into a Great Depression 50% Stock market rises past previous peak of 14,000 30% Stock market declines below previous low of 6,500 50% Housing prices stabilize near current levels 20% Housing prices plunge another 30% from current levels 60% Unemployment peaks at 10% and begins to decline 40% Unemployment increases above 12% 60% Economy gets caught in a defaltionary trap 50% Federal Reserve actions lead to hyperinflation 30% US dollar collapses 25% Peak Oil results in a barrel of oil surging past \$200 70% Military US military exits Iraq & Afghanistan by the end of 2011 25% US military remains in Iraq & Afghanistan beyond 2012 75% Israel and US attack Iran 30% Iran successfully develops a nuclear bomb 40% Another huge terrorist attack occurs in US 15% Military is used in US against citizens 30% China attacks Taiwan 5% North Korea attacks South Korea 15% Social Social unrest and protests increase 80% Urban areas become increasingly dangerous due to unemployment 70% The welfare state is dismantled 5% Government attempts gun control 40%
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