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Macro Economist
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I am a 13 year veteran of the buy-side, with over a decade of experience in Investment Management, at one time overseeing several billion dollars in hedge fund assets for institutional clients. Currently, I advise wealthy families on their investment portfolios as well as trade my own money. ... More
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Macro Musings
  • Buy US Bonds! 5 comments
    Jul 2, 2012 11:32 AM | about stocks: TLT

    US bond market participants are not screwing around today. The 10 year has taken out all the losses from Friday. The equity market is officially acting Full Retard.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am short EEM.

    Stocks: TLT
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This post has 5 comments:

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  •  
    It's called manipulation due to excessive liquidity! Stocks can rally while rates continue falling...
    2 Jul 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If it's all "manipulation," go ahead and take up knitting and leave the men to play.
    2 Jul 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I find it ironic that you are mocking despite the fact I have a significantly better track record than you. If your bearish fundamental thesis is truly correct, you should be able to directly short the market with confidence instead of just cowering in bonds (my thesis is such that it allows for lower bond yields and higher equities prices). If there is indeed no padding of bad macro prints and so forth, the markets should head lower. If however, I am correct, then this market should see ~1700 by November of this election year. I will take the opposite position of the same proposed trade (and go long on equities). Give the market about 4-5 months and when you are in the poor house (-30% from this point), I will be sure to drop a knitting kit off for you!
    2 Jul 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Every article discloses my position, which is in fact not long bonds but rather short EEM, but you are so hell bent on your freaking view, that you overlook it.

    Furthermore, I have strict risk controls. I have no allegiance to my view. If my indicators change, I change.

    I have been kind of enough to disclose my process in bits and pieces to the world. Notice I don't kiss anybody's ass? Why, because I am REAL and I don't need you.

    You ain't got sheit dude. Let's leave it at that and happy knitting.
    2 Jul 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    In the interest of being a good American, I want to apologize for the previous comment. No need for it on my part. I could delete it, but that would be dishonest. Thanks for your very insightful feedback.
    4 Jul 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
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StockTalks

  • You cannot be serious on this mid day equity rally in the midst of an even stronger bid to bonds (the smart money)
    Apr 5, 2013
  • Will I ever get apologies from those who harassed me telling me I was a horrible Macro Economist and wrong about bonds? I doubt it.
    Apr 5, 2013
  • Why are bonds bid? Stocks are the "only game in town." Laugh Out Loud...You will all see how screwed the world is.
    Mar 19, 2013
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