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tuan nguyen
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I am a long term investor mostly in technology and telecom where I am a specialist for 10 years working in the domain for France Telecom in Europe, Alcatel Lucent in US
  • World Economy Vs Market Indicator For 2012 - Good Time To Invest ? 0 comments
    Aug 9, 2012 5:55 PM | about stocks: SBUX

    We saw all of companies in US posting their Earning for Q1, Q2 and most of them showing a very positive result but Economic datas are not showing a great picture. What can we learn from those indicators?


    -US companies mostly posted good earning quarter Q1, Q2 2012

    -Sale is relatively slower than expected (except Apple 88% growth)

    -Higher marginal profit, higher Earning thanks to new market for US companies (IBM, Apple, Starbucks, Ford started expanding their revenue in China significantly)

    -Dow and Nasdaq growth 15-20% in 2012


    -US data showing that consumers having less saving, slowing spending with GDP growing only 2% instead of 3% expected. FED is not ready for any Money easing or other commitment for 2012 in keeping very low interest rate nearly 0%.

    -Higher gas price, cafe, commodities, etc

    -Big concern about Europe debt (Spain, Italy)

    -Lots of election in Europe (May 2012) and US (Dec 2012) in which Socialist will win those elections due to weak economic indicator and high unemployment in Europe more than 10% (22% in Spain). US having unemployment is going down to 8%

    -China slow expanding

    How can we predict 2012 to our real life for now as an Investor, CEO or economic point of view when seeing those mix informations (bad and good at the same time) ?

    It seems to be a contradiction between Economic indicator (macro economy seems slow growing for the rest of 2012 based on some indicators) and Market indicator (companies can grow more in 2012 based on Q2 result).

    So investment with prudence, Sell in May and Buy back from September could be a good idea as most investors doing very successgfully since the last 5 years ? What do you think about the growth rate of companies. Apple still is the leader of capital market, skewing the growth to very high level for most index indicators. Will it be possible to continue for growth in the rest of 2012 or Economy will slow down slightly ? How do you share with this idea ?

    Stocks: SBUX
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