Carl Spackler's  Instablog

Carl Spackler
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I graduated with an economics degree and joined an investment house where I learned the investment business using other peoples money. I eventually started my own finance company which I sold a few years ago. I have been a fanatical stock and commodities player for over 25 years. Finally, to... More
  • Nite time evaluation 0 comments
    Apr 24, 2009 12:20 AM

    Market looks trapped between 860 and 830.  All my personal indicators point down.  It is very early in a down part of a cycle, so you can see crazy movements, but to me the market seems ready to crack.  I will still have 75% of my money placed to short this market if it goes below 824.  If it hits this mark, we have a very strong probability of a move to 740 S&P (100 pts). It could find new lows, but 740 looks to be a good initial target. Watch for any strong reversal where the market was up then reverses to a good size negative number - say from 80 points Dow up to $50 points Dow down.  The market will entually point the way, but in any case, I do not want to play this beast long right now.  One compelling target is SRS (ultrashort RE) at 26.33.  This could bolt to $50 in a hurry.  Safer bet is QID or SDS.  Some unforseen event is out there ready to tip this market down.  Baltic dry index, fedex, and UPD shipment all point to weak shipments of goods.  The rally up to this point is built on hope - not reality.

    Be smart out there!

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