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Carl Spackler's  Instablog

I graduated with an economics degree and joined an investment house where I learned the investment business using other peoples money. I eventually started my own finance company which I sold a few years ago. I have been a fanatical stock and commodities player for over 25 years. Finally, to... More
  • Finally A Trendline Break! 7 comments
    Oct 1, 2009 09:56 PM
    Today we saw our first trendline break (of multiple bottoms) in a long time!  As suggested, a close below 1035 should cause us to re-establish some shorts.  At this point, the next levels of support are:
    • S&P 1006
    • S&P 963
    This nine month move has finished a rising wedge pattern that portends a challenge of these levels. 
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This post has 7 comments:

  •  
    My charts agree about the finally finishing the wedge, using SPY as a proxy (there has been some occasional tracking error when SPY >= 100, corrected now). I don't know if it's my bad eyes or what, but I'm looking for 1015 and 983ish. I gues were close enough for government work.

    The Q for tomorrow: how bad will unemployment be (GS gaved and said "OOPS we underestimated" over on bloomberg today) and how much will the $/market respond to it?

    I'm betting we've established a down trend with a few hiccups along the way.

    But, I'm a n00b, so I shouldn't be taken all that seriously.

    HardToLove
    Oct 01 10:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    No problem, when a Market is as Manipulated as this one has been, its really easy to get Whipsawed.

    Wednesday's Short Sales by the NYSE Membership were the worst I have seen this year. I won't be able to see Thursday's action for another 5 1/2 hours.

    A serious correction would require about 500 million shares sold short on a cumulative basis. This was only 22 million. I have seen 500 million in one day both plus and minus.

    8,500 is doable, it just depends on where you establish your uptrend line and how far back you go.
    Oct 01 10:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BTW Carl Spackler published one Article. It was on July 1st of this year. If you use his analysis as a Contrary indicator, the uptrend should resume next week.

    Using SPX on a Mar. bottom, July, Bottom and extending upward both on a Closing basis and an OHLC basis...The Uptrend clearly hasn't Been broken.

    Like I've said before, Charting depends on the View Point taken by the Chartist. March/July are my two points for this Major Uptrend. Something South of 1.000 has to occur for it to be broken.
    Oct 01 11:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    No follow through from Membership. Bought net 4 million shares thursday.

    Considering that GS helped Panic the markets with their worse than anticipated Jobless numbers. It will be interesting to see how much Better the numbers are. If they come in below -200K, it will be a heck of a lot better than the -250K GS prediction.
    Oct 02 04:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good morning Freya!

    My long-term trend line matches yours (using SPY as a proxy). But being new and prone to over-complication, I also plotted some trend changes and wanting to avoid being too late, as I often am when my cautious side is in control, I used the trend change combined with the three days down on increasing volume each day and people's fear of October to guess that this would get us down around that 980 level or so.

    If we get 1015 today, that touches the long-term trend (200 day chart). If we get 1000, I get really alert, watching for a continuation down or a possible "head and shoulders" to start forming again.

    I was also swayed by the Advance/Decline shown here
    www.masterdata.com/Rep... and the McClellan Osc here
    www.masterdata.com/Rep...

    although I've not yet learned how to use or interpret these effectively yet. So much to learn still!

    Anyway, for me, this is part of the "fun" and learning.

    That membership data, is it publicly available? That sure sounds like it would be *very* indicative.

    Good to "see" you here again.

    HardToLove


    On Oct 02 04:46 AM freya wrote:

    > No follow through from Membership. Bought net 4 million shares thursday.
    >
    >
    > Considering that GS helped Panic the markets with their worse than
    > anticipated Jobless numbers. It will be interesting to see how much
    > Better the numbers are. If they come in below -200K, it will be a
    > heck of a lot better than the -250K GS prediction.
    Oct 02 07:36 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I get it as part of a Barrons' subscription. HardCopy/Online combined.
    Just Renewed for 2 years. $179. A lot of Barrons' data is free but this costs.

    It used to be delayed 2 weeks, went daily this year.

    What I'll be watching intra-day is the announcement on the Olympics.
    Oct 02 08:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you read the July article it was based on monthly charts and said a down move was going to occur. Well on a monthly basis, we are just 2-3 monthly ticks down the road from that article. Not too many people will call a turn right on the very tick. Sometimes you are a little early, sometimes a little late. I would guess by your bravado that your prognostications are spot on every tick!


    On Oct 01 11:22 PM freya wrote:

    > BTW Carl Spackler published one Article. It was on July 1st of this
    > year. If you use his analysis as a Contrary indicator, the uptrend
    > should resume next week.
    >
    > Using SPX on a Mar. bottom, July, Bottom and extending upward both
    > on a Closing basis and an OHLC basis...The Uptrend clearly hasn't
    > Been broken.
    >
    > Like I've said before, Charting depends on the View Point taken by
    > the Chartist. March/July are my two points for this Major Uptrend.
    > Something South of 1.000 has to occur for it to be broken.
    Oct 02 04:52 PM | Link | Reply
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