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  • Bitcoin Downside Targets 17 comments
    Nov 20, 2013 12:12 AM

    It seems that Bitcoin has experienced a temporary peak in the price. No better time to assess what the downside targets might be for a price that has had a parabolic increase. In the last assessment of downside targets done on April 10, 2013 (found here) when Bitcoin was at $237.56, we said the following:

    "Because the nature of parabolic peaks is to crash disastrously explains why the more moderate peaks of January 2012 and July 2012 did not give up more than 66% of the previous increase. The current parabolic increase in Bitcoin has a conservative downside target of $89.45 and an extreme downside target of $76.05."

    After our April 2013 downside projection, Bitcoin fell as low as $68 depending on the source as indicated in our June 26, 2013 review (found here). However, regardless of the source, Bitcoin declined below the extreme downside target of $76.05.

    (click to enlarge)

    Our conservative downside target for Bitcoin, based on the peak closing price of $785.50 is $384.83. The extreme downside target is $261.83. The worst case scenario is for Bitcoin to fall as low as $152.83 as indicated by the red line on the chart.

    As we've written many pieces on the topic of Edson Gould's Speed Resistance Line, we've made some observations that we think should be highlighted at this time. For the first time, we're going to provide what we believe might be an upside target. In the case of Bitcoin, the next conservative upside target is $1,154.49 if the most recent peak of $785.50 is exceeded. This is a tentative estimate based on observations of the many successful downside SRLs that we have run in the past. We'll be on the lookout for what may come next.

    Themes: Bitcoin
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Comments (17)
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  • godalming
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    think my calculations on current price movements was potentially down to about $343 (fib 61.8%), and $450 ish if it was only retracing last major upmove rather than whole upmove, which is looking likely as $450-ish hit, if so suggests upmove incomplete and $1000 in sight perhaps? I do see it as overly dynamic in price movement due to its ethereal nature, which should put a lot of retail vendors off, but fundamentally, it is logical to move away from controlled and systemically floored fiat currency. I do think it, or something similar, is here to stay.
    22 Nov 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » After the last 24 hours, your $450-ish target was on point so far. Good call Godalming.

     

    Regards.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Greetings Godalming,

     

    Thanks for checking our work. $343 sounds good for us. After all, it would meet our conservative downside target. We agreed that the prospects for the long-term viability of Bitcoin may be in place. Just gotta see how this current move plays out.

     

    Regards.
    22 Nov 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • AgAuMoney
    , contributor
    Comments (4437) | Send Message
     
    What do you use as a "closing" price? Every BTC market I follow is 24x7.
    23 Nov 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Greetings AgAuMoney,

     

    Although you are right about the 24x7 aspect, sources provide an open, high, low and closing price. One can be found here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1dtyjJk

     

    Regards.
    24 Nov 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • AgAuMoney
    , contributor
    Comments (4437) | Send Message
     
    That's what I was afraid of.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dtyjJk

     

    Pretty chart, but I checked three data points I have recorded and it did not have any of the three. For example, 19Nov high over $900.

     

    http://bit.ly/1i62Xuj

     

    Interesting wrapper around bitcoincharts. I've been getting their datafeed from almost the beginning and never seen any open/close/high/low. That must be something quandl is "value added." At least quandl has my datapoints, but that may be only because we have the same upstream datasource. I'll need to look into who is deciding "open" and "close" times and how they were chosen.

     

    I've wondered about just using UTC. But since MtGox is (was) japanese, maybe not...
    25 Nov 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bitcoin open, high, low and close also found here:

     

    https://www.mtgox.com

     

    Available for download here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1i62Xuj
    24 Nov 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • B.stolk
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    The mtgox order book graph shows that, today, there is more resistance (at 900) than support. http://bit.ly/Io2eUL

     

    I've never really bought into technical analysis, but I am curious to find out how your predictions play out.
    24 Nov 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Greetings B.Stolk,

     

    Your skepticism with technical analysis means that you'd be a perfect student of technical analysis.

     

    When we're running these numbers we're trying to demonstrate that they don't work. On occasion we find a technique that has a higher level of consistency than others.

     

    However, we attempt to use technical analysis to determine downside risk instead of upside potential. This is found in almost every article that we've published regarding technical analysis.

     

    Like you, we're also curious to see what the outcome might be.

     

    Regards.
    25 Nov 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Greetings B.Stolk,

     

    Bitcoin achieved and exceeded our upside target by 7%. After achieving the high it has declined as low as $455, within 18% of the old downside target of $384.83. Quite fascinating.

     

    Regards.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • stamen123
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    The correction you are talking about already took place last week:
    http://bit.ly/1essGZ7
    24 Nov 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry Stamen,

     

    the link didn't work. Any alternative sources to the same information?

     

    Thanks.
    25 Nov 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • AgAuMoney
    , contributor
    Comments (4437) | Send Message
     
    It worked for me. Maybe a provider was having problems when you tried.

     

    It is a simple screenshot, appears to show the several hundred dollar correction following the brief peak on 19 Nov. with some TA annotations.
    26 Nov 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Greetings Stamen,

     

    The recent decline to $455 might be the correction that you were referring to. Well worth reviewing our latest article on the topic for the "new" numbers based on Gould's work.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Got it; thanks AgAu.
    26 Nov 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bitcoin article update found here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Dec 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • New Low Observer
    , contributor
    Comments (2122) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bitcoin achieved our subsequent downside targets found at our website. http://bit.ly/OgPWBv
    20 Feb, 10:34 PM Reply Like
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