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Disney A Long-Term Sell

|Includes:The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Disney's most recent quarter was pretty solid. They made headlines with a pretty notable acquisition of the YouTube producer Maker Studios; with Frozen, they broke their own record with the highest-grossing animated movie of all time, beating Toy Story 3 by over $150 million (they'll be able to keep riding that gravy train for quite a while, I'm sure); and they also saw considerable success with the continuation of their Marvel comics series with Thor: The Dark World.

It was exciting, really. But it's not enough. Here's a look at the year over year change for Disney.

 

Quarter Ended

 

Revenues

3/29/2014

3/30/2013

Change

Media Networks

5,134

4,957

4%

Parks and Resorts

3,562

3,302

8%

Studio Entertainment

1,800

1,338

35%

Consumer Products

885

763

16%

Interactive

268

194

38%

 

11,649

10,554

10%

As you can see, their largest increase in terms of dollars is revenue from their Studios Entertainment. And although we're looking at more and more Marvel movies, and even the new Star Wars trilogy, there's no telling how those will end up being received. It's definitely impossible to assume they have the wherewithal to produce enough Frozen-esque movies to keep those revenues from going back down. In all reality, that's where they're going.

The increase in consumer products, essentially the merchandising from these movies, also isn't sustainable as we saw it over the past quarter.

The biggest fear for investors, however, is where Disney receives the largest chunk of its revenue pie-television. With the rise of "cord cutting" and paid streaming networks like Netflix, Hulu Plus and Amazon Prime, who knows how that's going to threaten Disney's revenues through its networks ABC, ESPN, and the Disney channels?

All in all, I'm not very confident in Disney stock's sustainability moving forward. With the future of television in a massive transformation and the high volatility of its studio and consumer products revenue, the stock is looking more and more overpriced by the day.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Stocks: DIS