Alex K's  Instablog

Alex K
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2005-2008 - Associate at UFG Capital Partners (mid-sized CIS private equity fund) 2011-2013 - Investment manager at Vnesheconombank Group, direct investments division 2013- p.t. - Investment Director at GVA Capital (mid-sized family office)
  • Long Coal / Short Oil (Medium Term Outlook) 0 comments
    Jul 21, 2014 6:55 PM

    Long coal / short oil (medium term outlook)


    Demand side:

    • Growing demand in China, India, Japan
    • Coal and US gas are the only cheap fossil fuels. While coal is cheaper and easier to ship than gas

    Supply side:

    • At current price levels many small coal producers in China, as well as large producers in Australia and US sustain losses

    Key risks: Economic slowdown in China, illegal coal production in Indonesia


    Demand Side:

    • oil use would start contracting in the OECD
    • domestic demand growth in China has slowed

    Supply side:

    • supply boom in North America
    • PG and biofuels

    Key risks: Situation in Iraq and Libya

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