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Fred Piard
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Author of The Lazy Fundamental Analyst and Quantitative Investing (5 stars on Amazon). I am an independent quant analyst and investor, PhD, engineer, ex-software architect and consultant, now enjoying a tropical lifestyle. My portfolio is published in newsletters by ypafi.com. I have designed... More
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  • My Weekly Outlook 0 comments
    Jul 21, 2014 10:41 AM

    First published here (latest update).

    7/21/2014

    Thursday sell-off was triggered by events in Ukraine and Gaza. The VIX index did an intraday high about 50% above its recent low. Friday reversed the move and the Nasdaq 100 ended the week at a new closing high. As I expected last week, the Russell 2000 did worse than other major US indexes. More sideways action is likely for the next weeks between short-term supports and resistances.

    Market Indicators (first 3 are long-term, last 3 are shorter term):
    BULL: U.S.A. Unemployment rate trend last 3 months
    BULL: S&P500 EPS estimate trend last 3 months
    BULL: Comparison of S&P500 50-day and 200-day moving averages
    BULL: Ratio of S&P100 stocks above 200-day moving average
    BEAR: Russell 2000 compared with its 20-day moving average
    BULL: Bulkowski's chart pattern indicator

    VIX weekly closing at 12.06; XIV underlying contango 5.32%; ZIV underlying contango 10.32% (3.44% per month).

    Global Household Index, delayed-6/15/2014 (explained here):

    ABBVAbbVie Inc
    ACTActavis PLC
    AETAetna Inc.
    AMGNAmgen Inc.
    BAXBaxter International Inc
    CCECoca-Cola Enterprises Inc
    DPSDr Pepper Snapple Group Inc
    GILDGilead Sciences Inc
    KKellogg Co
    KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc
    LOLorillard Inc
    MDTMedtronic Inc
    MOAltria Group Inc
    MYLMylan Inc
    PFEPfizer Inc
    PMPhilip Morris International Inc
    STJSt. Jude Medical Inc.
    STZConstellation Brands Inc
    TAPMolson Coors Brewing Co
    TSNTyson Foods Inc.
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