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Fred Piard
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Creator for Seeking Alpha of a dynamic defensive portfolio (more info on this exclusive service below). Book author at Harriman House: 'The Lazy Fundamental Analyst' and 'Quantitative Investing' (5 stars). Personal portfolio published at Style: systematic, multi-model, market-neutral.... More
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  • My Weekly Outlook 0 comments
    Jul 28, 2014 9:21 AM

    Update: July 28, 2014

    The S&P 500 index hit a new high on Thursday in spite of geopolitical concerns. It shows how strong this bull market is. My usual indicators and some technical divergences are bearish for the short term, but a quite high short interest in S&P 500 and Nasdaq stocks make a big correction unlikely. The market may experience whipsaw on the short term and remains bullish on the long term.
    We are still in a "wall of worry" paradigm. Besides all concerns, the initial jobless claims number in the US is at its lowest since June 2007.

    Market Indicators (first 3 are long-term, last 3 are shorter term):
    BULL: U.S.A. Unemployment rate trend last 3 months
    BULL: S&P500 EPS estimate trend last 3 months
    BULL: Comparison of S&P500 50-day and 200-day moving averages
    BEAR: Ratio of S&P100 stocks above 200-day moving average
    BEAR: Russell 2000 compared with its 20-day moving average
    BEAR: Bulkowski's chart pattern indicator

    VIX weekly closing at 12.69; XIV underlying contango 5.93%; ZIV underlying contango 9.79% (3.26% per month).

    Global Household Index, delayed-6/15/2014 (explained here):

    ABBVAbbVie Inc
    ACTActavis PLC
    AETAetna Inc.
    AMGNAmgen Inc.
    BAXBaxter International Inc
    CCECoca-Cola Enterprises Inc
    DPSDr Pepper Snapple Group Inc
    GILDGilead Sciences Inc
    KKellogg Co
    KRFTKraft Foods Group Inc
    LOLorillard Inc
    MDTMedtronic Inc
    MOAltria Group Inc
    MYLMylan Inc
    PFEPfizer Inc
    PMPhilip Morris International Inc
    STJSt. Jude Medical Inc.
    STZConstellation Brands Inc
    TAPMolson Coors Brewing Co
    TSNTyson Foods Inc.
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