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Fred Piard
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Author of Quantitative Investing (4.7 stars on Amazon), independent quant analyst and investor. Portfolio architect focused on market-neutral and low volatility strategies ( Designer of the Global Household Index and systemic market timing scores (click Learn More below). PhD in... More
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  • My Weekly Outlook 0 comments
    Aug 4, 2014 8:32 AM

    Update: August 4, 2014

    The S&P 500 index suffered its worst weekly loss in more than 2 years and the Dow Jones slipped in negative territory year-to-date. Some short-term supports are broken, but the long-term trend lines are still holding on weekly charts. Nasdaq stocks are still outperforming, small caps are still tanking. All my short-term indicators remain bearish, all the long-term ones remain bullish. Seasonality is quite neutral in August, bad in September. Sentiment indicators are not very supportive either, but all the insurances (options and shorts) bought by investors and funds should limit the downside.

    VIX weekly closing at 17.03; XIV underlying contango 0.31%; ZIV underlying contango 7.93% (2.64% per month).

    Market Indicators (first 3 are long-term, last 3 are shorter term):
    BULL: U.S.A. Unemployment rate trend last 3 months
    BULL: S&P500 EPS estimate trend last 3 months
    BULL: Comparison of S&P500 50-day and 200-day moving averages
    BEAR: Ratio of S&P100 stocks above 200-day moving average
    BEAR: Russell 2000 compared with its 20-day moving average
    BEAR: Bulkowski's chart pattern indicator

    Global Household Index, delayed-7/28/2014 (explained here):

    ABBV AbbVie Inc

    ACT Actavis PLC

    AET Aetna Inc.

    AMGN Amgen Inc.

    BSX Boston Scientific Corp

    DPS Dr Pepper Snapple Group

    GILD Gilead Sciences Inc

    K Kellogg Co

    KRFT Kraft Foods Group Inc

    LO Lorillard Inc

    MDT Medtronic Inc

    MO Altria Group Inc

    MYL Mylan Inc

    PFE Pfizer Inc

    PM Philip Morris International

    RAI Reynolds American Inc

    STZ Constellation Brands Inc

    TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co

    TSN Tyson Foods Inc.

    ZMH Zimmer Holdings Inc

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