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Oriental Trader
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Spent many years swimming in the markets. Think I've finally noticed a few things.
  • Near Term Outlooks 0 comments
    Apr 5, 2013 10:43 AM | about stocks: GLD, GBB

    Sorry, I think I'm sick or something, might be out of action for a while.

    Without having fully developed my ideas, I'll just blab on instablog.

    (1) Gold will bounce soon. Too many bears, institutions and market players. Markets don't go down in a straight line except in 2008 (and even then, all assets ranged a long time before finally plunging). Long term not bull for gold, but short term bounce is likely. No reference point for gold price (no P/Es, supply curves w/e), once bounce happens, short sellers will cover out of panic.

    Look for <1> Eastern european/south African financial crisis. Asian financial crisis saw lower gold prices in 1997. <2> QE expectations:If gold is stronger this time, might be due to QE expectations + safe haven motive.

    (2) GBP likely to bounce. Way too many bears, strong PMI services on Thursday a very good sign. BOE MPC not as dovish as expected a month ago. GBPNZD false breakdown a few days ago, should do well. Signals a comeback for the GBP.

    (3) Looking for chance to go long USDHUF. Prolly false breakdown, will continue uptrend soon. Looking for catalyst. Might be shorting this one from the operations room!

    Hope to recover soon, if not, these are my calls and a few disconnected thoughts. Making them on the record.

    Disclosure: I am long FXB.

    Additional disclosure: Long a little GBPUSD (FXB closest I could find), looking to buy a regional non-US gold miner, looking to short HUF or ZAR in coming weeks

    Themes: Gold, global macro, forex Stocks: GLD, GBB
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