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  • Give Me Just One Solid Reason To Sell My Shares Of Arena  2 comments
    Jul 21, 2012 5:44 PM | about stocks: ARNA

    So for this weeks blog I challenged Bashers on the Yahoo Message Board For Arena to give me one solid reason I should sell my shares of Arena Phamaceuticals. Surprise I only got one opinion from a brave so called non-short of Arena that put down a few reasons.

    1. Let's see mammary tumors.

    Last time I checked Janet Woodcock of the FDA stated that NO incidents of mammary tumors were tied to Belviq.

    2. Insider sellers of shares.

    Actually options were exchanged but no shares were sold. Unlike the mad rush of Leland Wilson and the VVUS gang selling as if the stock was headed to zero.

    3. Arena only receives profits of "between 31.5% and 36.5%" of their own drug in American sales.

    They also get milestone payments of Millions of Dollars and pay 10% of follow-up testing. VVUS has 10 CVOT issues which need to be paid by VVUS alone right now.

    4. Analyst project Arena will not turn a profit until 2014 with net loss of "33 cents per share in 2012, and 17 cents in 2013."
    "Bloomberg's consensus estimates for Arena are more pessimistic, with the consensus for 2012 being a loss of 46 cents per share, and 29 cents in 2013."

    The fact is no one really knows how Belviq will sell. Based on the restrictions given to Qysemia it would appear most of the obesity market and Drs. will fall into Belviqs corner. At this point VVUS is not sure of the number of lawsuits that may be coming its way due to patent infringement as well as lawsuits that will come due to side effect issues with the drug. Chances are Arena will be bought out any of these numbers mean anything anyway.

    5.Arena only has one drug in any phase of FDA trials and that drug is only in Phase 1 trials (ADP811). Every other drug is either in research or pre-clinical and not one compound is eligible for FDA approval/denial for another 6-8 years.

    Excuse me. What do all small biotechs have in common. They are in development stages which makes the stocks risky. Belviq is a novel drug with a safety background that is safer than aspirin and it is approved with a strong marketing team.

    While I applaud the lone responder for coming up with nonsense responses at least he/she was brave enough to say something.

    Analysts, hedge funds and some media outlets have reasons they manipulate the price per share of Arena stock. This manipulation has nothing to do with how good or bad Belviq is. I say let the sales numbers and milestone payments start to roll in before casting thoughts about how well the drug will sell.

    As always on your side and "Nothing But The Truth".

    Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

    Stocks: ARNA
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Comments (2)
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  • topperg
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    excellent ,, long and waiting for the buyout $25---$60 will do it for me..
    22 Jul 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • someone who does Due Diligence
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Ugh I hate when people spout off and don't do due diligence or research.

     

    1)http://1.usa.gov/NKgabu...

     

    Direct quote from FDA: "The relevance of lorcaserin-related mammary tumors in rodents to the obese patient population cannot be dismissed."Lorcaserin increased mammary tumors within 7-fold clinical exposure"

     

    2)http://bit.ly/MUyc6t...

     

    http://bit.ly/MUyc6t...

     

    Robert Hoffman and Steven Spector exercised options & COMMON STOCK on 7-2-12, 7-3-12, 7-5-12....see that part where it says "Common stock" yeah that means shares bud.

     

    3)Arena only receives profits of "between 31.5% and 36.5%" of their own drug in American sales. 100% fact. You don't even try to deny it just re-direct about milestone payments.http://seekingalpha.co......

     

    4. "The fact is no one really knows how Belviq will sell." ...Ok?? No one said they had a crystal ball. You asked for reasons why the stock is not a buy & Bloomberg ( a major financial & well respected institution) was quoted as saying "estimates for Arena are more pessimistic, with the consensus for 2012 being a loss of 46 cents per share, and 29 cents in 2013." http://seekingalpha.co...... Then you go off on a tangent about ARNA getting bought out with no basis for your beliefs..just pumping away.

     

    5)"Arena only has one drug in any phase of FDA trials and that drug is only in Phase 1 trials (ADP811). Every other drug is either in research or pre-clinical and not one compound is eligible for FDA approval/denial for another 6-8 years."....Once again, 100% fact.
    http://bit.ly/MUyeew

     

    Lets see here, number of links backing up my claims....6. Number of links you cite....0.
    22 Jul 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
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