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Respect Gravity is a small software company in Atlanta, Georgia focusing on data analytics, data mining and modeling for use in predictive marketing and event forecasting. Consisting of former professors, software architects and the best minds in data mining and finance.
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  • Odds Of "To Da Moon" 1 comment
    Apr 9, 2014 2:25 PM | about stocks: DEWM, NGBL, PMCM-OLD, PRPM, GRCU, POTN

    We pulled a sample date set, as near complete as possible, of the stocks in the penny space that have touch upon or been sequester for length at 0.0001 over the last three years. To try and determine what the odds are of such a stock earning an astronomical return and hence actually being worthy of the substantive phrase "to da moon."

    It is difficult to quantify what "to da moon" equates to in terms of price per share but, the simplest correspondence we could think of is just a strict 1-to-1 mapping of dollars to distance. The Moon is in orbit at approximately 300,000km above the Earth, and if we take 0.0001 (which is one, one-hundredth of a cent) to be one kilometer that would mean the stock would have to "shoot" to $30.00 to be on "da moon." Or, at least depending upon time of the month it would be really, really close. Metaphorically.

    Based on the message boards, these types of stocks would seem to be everywhere, we all read the phrase on a near daily basis especially on the boards dedicated to companies that have mentioned marijuana of late.

    Out of 854 stocks (again this sample size is restricted to the trip zero stocks), only one cleared $30.00 so far in the past three years. It is possible many more will enter lunar orbit in the future only time will tell. But, for now that is a success rate of 0.1%. And gravity appears to be very, very strong for stocks because that stock is currently trading at one-tenth it's "da moon" level. In fact, only two stocks have made it into the upper atmosphere and both fell to one tenth their highs.

    Maybe, we are grossly over estimated the height traders want there stocks to soar to. Maybe, people are just saying the stock will reach a cruising altitude. Standard cruising altitude is 10km roughly. Using my distance to dollar calculator and reviewing the data. We find 129 or fifteen percent have made such a climb. That still seems pretty low considering the frequency of the phrase.

    Maybe, "da moon" really is code for something else. A euphemism, for something more sinister. So we checked in this. Thirteen of the stocks are now bankrupt. Five hundred and forty are in a state of purgatory or death, i.e. grey sheeted or caveat emptor'ed. (Hard to make a past tense in English of a Latin phrase). Together those account for sixty-five percent of the sample. So the odds are not good.

    When someone writes "to da moon" they mean "to da grave."

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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  • mcsharkey
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Excellent. Mathematically factoring out the metaphor is an excellent method to use. Enjoyed this concise article for the insight and truly engaging style.
    8 Dec 2015, 06:45 PM Reply Like
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