Seeking Alpha

Sunil Shah's  Instablog

Sunil Shah
126 Followers
17 Following
Send Message
A fund manager who cut his cloth in Schroders London. He joined Coronation South Africa in 1998, running the Smaller Companies Fund which had the best 5-yr record in the sector during his tenure. In 2005 he left Coronation to pursue his passion in writing (and invest without constraints). He... More
My blog:
whitemansnumbers.com
My book:
White Man's Numbers: Excerpt Chapter 13
  • The Cloud and Hot Air and Frogs that dance with Dolphins 2 comments
    Aug 18, 2011 2:08 AM | about stocks: CRM, GLD, SPY, VMW
    Does anyone else feel they make the best investment decisions when real life is falling apart, when the sun might never shine again. AND it is thus entirely because of one's utterly incomprehensible mistakes?

    I do.

    Hence by irrefutable logic, CRM is down a heap tomorrow after earnings. Wont raise guidance again, trading mojos are fleeing cos the graph is sinking. (something about trendy trendlines, I gather...).  As for the PE and ANY valuation criteria, it's almost as ludicrous as the FED's policy decisions are insane.

    Real world could not get worse. Heavy downpour today. Time to swim out of the swamp of hot air in the cloud and back on planet earth.

    "Yeah!" as an exfriend said.

    dislcosure short CRM, Long Gold, 
    Themes: cloud computing Stocks: CRM, GLD, SPY, VMW
Back To Sunil Shah's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

This post has 2 comments:

Track new comments on this article
  •  
    free cash flow for qtr $31m (excluding cash for shares issued and related tax benefit). OK lets give it 35% growth, for the year, to give you 168$ m free cash for the year. Using new fully diluted shares of 135million on share price of $118 = mkt cap of $16bn. SO price/free cash flow on 35% growth in cash flow= 95 times.

    Is that a bargain when market P/Cash is 9-10 times.

    This is laughable, but they did get Metallica for their dreamforce conference. I'm sure that makes it worth it
    19 Aug 2011, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  •  
    AMENDMENT TO ABOVE:

    free cash flow for qtr $31m (excluding cash for shares issued and related tax benefit). OK lets give it 35% growth, for the year, to give you 168$ m free cash for the year. Using new fully diluted shares of 146million on share price of $118 = mkt cap of $17.2bn. Less cash on balance sheet of 1.3bn gives mkt cap of 15.9bn. SO price/free cash flow on 35% growth in cash flow= 94 times.

    Is that a bargain when market P/Cash is 9-10 times.

    This is laughable, but they did get Metallica for their dreamforce conference. I'm sure that makes it worth it
    19 Aug 2011, 02:50 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $CRM remember this classic video. I want to buy Salesforce.com "I dont care" http://bit.ly/15T4uhK
    4 days ago
  • $NOK Ok so Nok's Launch didnt have the jazzmataz pomp that yanks love. So what?? The underlying phone is fab and will gain acceptance/favour
    May 14, 2013
  • $EBIX Buyout offer of $20 is way too low! "Unanimously approved by Board". Shocking as price depressed by SA -ve article. What is going on!!
    May 1, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
Bonds, cloud computing, Currency War, debt, Dollar, earnings, Economy, Forex, GAAP and NON GAAP EPS, GAAP and Non GAAP eps, Long and Short Ideas, Long Ideas, long-ideas, Margin Lending, QE , QE2, short crm, short CRM, Short ideas, short ideas, short-ideas, spy, Technology
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.