Sunil Shah's  Instablog

Sunil Shah
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A fund manager who cut his cloth in Schroders London. He joined Coronation South Africa in 1998, running the Smaller Companies Fund which had the best 5-yr record in the sector during his tenure. In 2005 he left Coronation to pursue his passion in writing (and invest without constraints). He... More
My blog:
whitemansnumbers.com
My book:
White Man's Numbers: Excerpt Chapter 13
  • CRM SalesFARCE dot com price target $60 in 12 months 1 comment
    Nov 18, 2011 11:03 PM | about stocks: CRM

    Finally the time is nigh for the SALESFARCE.COM's deluge. Now that the chart is technically crippled, only value/fundamental investors remain...of which there are equal in numbers to black swans. I've waited almost two years for this, and will celebrate the imminent recovery of jaw-dropping losses this weekend. Yeah!

    On a valuation basis, I would give it a 25X operating cash flow of 300$ m. Add $800m of cash from balance sheet and you get a price target of $60 on 145m shares outstanding.  I think even this is generous.


    This baby is going to fall hard to the ocean's bottom; even Mark's dolphins wont resuscitate it.

    Stocks: CRM
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  • Sunil Shah
    , contributor
    Comments (1064) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another sure thing is sh price will fall, now dramatically as technicals crippled.$ 60 is an optimistic realistic valuation. See my note on 30 x real op cash flow multiple. Waited 2 yrs for this, now to be realised in 3 months. See model on my article. Phew!

     

    see perfectly timed article

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    disc: very very short, and finally vindicated!
    22 Dec 2011, 05:12 AM Reply Like
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