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Skier, ex nuclear engineer, green energy advocate moving towards lithium ion battery future
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  • Turning Dried Corn Stalks into Gold with Biomass and APWR 17 comments
    Sep 9, 2009 10:45 AM | about stocks: APWR

    Why invest in a company that takes chicken poop and turns it into gold??   Why invest into a company that takes dried corn stalks and turns it into electricity??  I dont really beleive most here know the true meaning of """One mans TRASH is another mans Cash'''' which desribes APWR to a nutshell. 

    Taking BIOMASS to a new level in China is going to make large revenue gains over time as China spends to go green.  Biomass, Geothermal, Wind, Solar and APWR has it all.

    I added more APWR at $9.91 this am for future gains into the future years.  I am NOT a TRADER instead focusing on long term gains with enormous positions and a laser focus into the internals of those companies I invest in.

    DISCLOSURE:: LONG APWR

    Stocks: APWR
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  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    I'm not a trader either. I build positions for the future with a 3 to 5 year time horizon. Thats why so many of my dormant dogs have suddenly come to life.

     

    I saw where NGLPF had laid the power lines for the starup in early Oct but did you read where they had contracted to lay lines that would be able to handle 120 MW?

     

    I bought 1,000 shares at $0.80 a few days ago, plan to lay low and wait to see if they can break the Old highs, will add on as it moves higher. I like stocks which require me to Average Up.
    12 Sep 2009, 04:18 AM Reply Like
  • wind4me
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » kicking myself in the BUTT on NGLPF as the extra wells required are going to require extra capital that scared me off!! My BAD but ADDED ALOT of APWR at $8 so not bad off
    12 Sep 2009, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    Like I/you said, its a long term investment. Don't worry about making short term mistakes. I'll give up the Ship when it starts sinking not when a wave or two hits it.
    12 Sep 2009, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    OE- I would like to know how you determine when a dog has been kicked but will rise, v when it's been broken. You are a true investor rather than a speculator. For me, I limit my long term holds to stocks with excellent dividends and cash positions that can weather market gyrations. Even then, it's hard not to take profits sometimes, and just let them sit. What parameters do you use to hold them when they look bad for years? Thank you.
    12 Sep 2009, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • wind4me
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » basic fundamentals tell me when I have made a mistake

     

    is China going to spend 1.7 TRILLION in next 10 years on green power??????? Did APWR receive over a BILLION in new backlog orders in last few months???
    3 Jan 2011, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    OG: Take the CanRoys, Owned them since first Introduction on the Amex, first there was one, then there were two,three,four. I picked the one's with the lowest payout percentages relative to what they could payout. And then they went into the reverse. PWE snarfed up two of my CanRoys, I got out of PGH when their Oil?Gas relation got skewed too much to Gas. But out of the 3, I still have left...PVX, HTE, and PWE, Its not about the Payout.

     

    Now its about their Holdings. PVX started out without a TransCanada Pipe line (WE) and a GTL facility, their reserves are in the 20 year range because they didn't squander them. As a Corporation, I expect them to hit all time highs. HTE has a Refine anything refinery where they can't readily access it but Its in the Right place now. PWE has a lot of assets and a lot of Debt which enables it to remain a CanRoy for years after 2011 if they so wish. All of them were bought with the expectation that eventually it would be about the Price of Oil, not what the Payout is.

     

    On paper, I'm down about 50% on the aggregate, on dividends already received (all were bought when they were yielding 15-20% annually), I'm playing with the House's money, since I did sell some that had appreciated to where they "Only" Yielded 10% into others yielding 15-20%.

     

    They are all in my Dormant dogs category. They will stay there for the foreseeable future.
    12 Sep 2009, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    OG: If a company has cash flow, is able to issue debt, Revenue grows even though earnings do not. Has interesting Tech., they can lie fallow until they go belly up or make me a lot of money eventually or I Have to sell something because I want to Buy something else or want to take a Tax loss.

     

    I'm holding Bankrupt companies right now which I won't sell until losses are needed or they are truly dead. BVTI for instance, is bankrupt but they have a real good chance to rise from the ashes.

     

    I took losses last year on companies which I did not want to sell, Like GMO which I had purchased for its long term prospects but never got back in, its up a couple of Hundred % from where I sold it.

     

    IVAN has proven HTL Oil technology, HDY has over 20,000 square Miles of leases off the Coast of Africa most of it already charted. PFTI has filtering Tech and a Soros Connection, SRRY recycles Plastic, HYFXF builds Desalinization Plants, CAVO is a Large Vietnamese Construction company.

     

    They all have one thing in common, people are Buying their "stuff", Cash flow. They will stay Dormant Dogs.

     

    I expect the Least from PFTI and the most from CAVO.

     

    You should take a really close look at CAVO, look at the subsidiaries, what they have set up for the future and what they are in the process of constructing for themselves while working on projects for others. This company employs 3,000 workers. They want to move from the BB to a listed exchange. With only 3 million shares outstanding, how are they going to accomplish it? Think about it.
    12 Sep 2009, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. I own some canroys too. I even put them in an IRA, even though it is not "smart" to, because you can't write off the foreign income tax. I thought they were a better deal, even if I had to forego the tax credit.
    I also picked up some AAV really cheap after they announced they were stopping their dividend. It was a 100%+ gainer for me, but I sold them because I didn't know how to judge how good a job they were doing converting to a corporation, and decided I had enough nat gas exposure anyway, since they are so heavily in natty. Well, only time will tell if it was a prudent decision! I might by kicking myself in 2011 or 12 if and when nat gas recovers down the road.
    12 Sep 2009, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    Take a look at the link I provided HTL on CQP.

     

    CQP bottomed in Dec. of 2008. That alone should have been a sign of things to come. I've been accumulating it rather steadily, $5.60 through $8.60 at $1 increments, 400 shares at a crack, my last dividend was $500 for the Quarter, the next will be in November and contribute another $680. Even thought the price has gone up my average cost is substantially less because of those dividends. Now, the Construction phase is esentially over. They have enough cash to finish the project. I've seen negative comments all over SA. I've also seen the Chairman Double his holdings by buying shares on the open market at $7.50. Guess who I trust more?

     

    Did you know that some writers have not bought/sold shares of anything, they just write about XYZ, no experience in the world they write about?

     

    I'm done buying CQP, however Friday's LNG (that's the Symbol for the parent) Volume impressed the hell out of me so I checked out the Insider Front...no purchases, just a slew of grants in June which went unnoticed because they are not OE's or outright purchases.

     

    So if you want to Fly in NG, you might want to consider LNG.

     

    Did you know that TK has a couple of structured trusts Floating out there.
    One is strictly an LNG fleet, they payout around 100% of their earnings. They keep some money on the side sometimes for expenditures or other good things like Building an Offshore LNG Terminal. The Current Payout is fairly low by my standards but The Future???

     

    Take a look at it, the chart I mean, the symbol is either TOO or TGP?
    12 Sep 2009, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    you're the best!
    13 Sep 2009, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    We've all have been on a roll, that's all. sometimes I wish I had a Trader's mentality.

     

    Like Mayascribe trading SVA and NVAX but I don't, Non-dividend plays are all in the get out with your initial investment, and hold on forever or until the circumstances change at the company level.

     

    But with a stock like NVAX, I do not have a clue as to when, if, whatever can occur on the Mutation Front and I find it very difficult to sell it.

     

    HERO is pure profit now, 600 shares left, when HL goes above $5, I'll do the same thing, sell 400 out with the original investment keep 600.

     

    IVAN has to go up another $1 for me to even break even, I figure to continue holding it indefinitely. I bought them because of their Tech but also because they have credibility with the Chinese, they have had joint drilling ventures for years in China. No Commercial finds but China has been buying Heavy crude from Iran via pipeline. HTL Tech?
    13 Sep 2009, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    On Sep 13 01:08 AM one eye wrote:

     

    > <snip>

     

    > IVAN has to go up another $1 for me to even break even, I figure
    > to continue holding it indefinitely. I bought them because of their
    > Tech but also because they have credibility with the Chinese, they
    > have had joint drilling ventures for years in China. No Commercial
    > finds but China has been buying Heavy crude from Iran via pipeline.
    > HTL Tech?

     

    Hi O.E.

     

    I threw up a chart for you to use in conjunction with this reply, since you know I'm new, to evaluate my comments below. Although I use the bar form, you can easily mentally convert them to the more popular candlestick form.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    I've not tracked this one before, but on the 200 day chart it remind me of other patterns I've been seeing on some small caps I've been watching that I mentioned other places.

     

    Please keep in mind that I'm still really new and so ... well you know the rest. I'm mentioning the activity leading up to Friday's action because it is so similar to the others I've watched.

     

    I overlaid it with SPY closing price line (the jagged bright red line). From the Mar 6 lows to Jul 9, it was more or less moving along with the market, with normal deviations, unlike the others I'd been watching. On Apr 27, it penetrated over its 200 day SMA, again moved with the market and then on Jul 10 it lost correlation with SPY movements and traded essentially sideways. The 20/50/100 SMAs is where it stayed. This part is similar to the others I'd been following.

     

    Here's where it really matches the pattern on the other small caps - it traded essentially sideways on small and consistent volume in what looked like a range-bound trading pattern until the last two weeks or so,
    - it then converted to more or less a consolidating pattern, with the high/low spreads tending to narrow, mostly, and volume still small and consistent,
    - then it had a strong volume up trend for several days,
    - it's now substantially above 20/50/100/200 SMAs
    - the ones I had been following had a catalyst that sparked the break upward.

     

    Two of those I had been watching had new releases as catalysts, I expect you've identified catalyst for IVAN.

     

    What those others then did was pullback a little bit and appear to enter a trading range. After I determined the range, I was able to buy at/near the low of the range and get out at/near the top of the range. Because of the large volume during the run up, it will take longer than normal to come out of overbought indicated, but it can still be bouncing around on reduced volumes while still being shown overbought. The stochastic will also tend to hang at the high side longer (if volume drops off substantially), so we can't count on that to give much guidance. The MACD lags too much with this recent volume and magnitude of change, so you can't count on the uptrend it shows to mean much.

     

    The fact that the dollar weakened so much and oil jumped a bit early in the week may account for some of the price rise. The oil did weaken a little the last couple days, so any impetus it provided to IVAN may be gone now.

     

    The run up the last five days on abnormally high volume and the last two days are remarkably similar to the other small-caps I was watching.

     

    IVAN is now (as were those others): well above all moving averages, indicated overbought by both RSI and MFI (recall that is volume weighted while RSI is not), "topped out" on the stochastic (and it has flattened), indicated under accumulation by Accum/Distr. (A/D), but A/D had had a small break down recently and the change to up is not strong so I don't trust it.

     

    Under these circumstances, I think there is a "reversion to the mean" tendency. This can be accomplished by a drop or hold position and the averages eventually come up to match. But I've noted there is often a small move towards those means, rather than a complete reversion.

     

    But for a catalyst, which you've mentioned, the below is what I would expect. If the catalyst is present, all the below is just so much garbage.

     

    I think it's going pull back a smidge and then stall there for a bit because of what I just mentioned and:
    - even with very large volume on that last day and a very broad price range (1,77 - 2.07) it still was unable to close higher than the gap-up open (in fact, it closed lower O 1.96, C 1.94), although it still closed higher than the prior day's close, short covering(?),
    - it's common for folks to want to "wait and see" what's going to happen after a big move so I wouldn't be surprised to see a sideways trading for awhile after a small pullback,
    - oil has had a little drop the last few days and that might influence IVAN's actions (but if the dollar weakens even more this may cause a new uptrend in oil and related),
    - The S&P500 is right at the apex of a rising wedge, and this *should* be an inflection point in the next few days; we don't know what way it goes from here and the very small trading volumes seen don't let us pick clues from volumes and patterns, and I believe it will influence IVAN's action,
    - if this S&P trend up is really the result of what we all believe, it may just continue creeping up with daily stick saves regardless of the technicals,
    - options expiration this week, last weeks spike may have been short covering, this week may have some more but in other stocks I've often seen them covering earlier and the expiration week itself goes mostly flat.

     

    A final thought: Friday it had a big gap-up open, it came back down and filled the gap in the first few minutes and continued downward until 11:56. It was certainly going to be a losing day. Then it had a slight up tick and traded 1.95-1.97 the rest of the day, becoming a winner. I think that this might have been short covering. If so, most of the support that would have provided may be dissipated now - difficult to know.

     

    Have you considered selling some covered calls? That brings in some cash and reduces your cost basis. If the price drops you can let the options expire and keep 100% of the premium, or possibly buy them back at a profit before a turn up occurs. Just pick a strike price you'd be happy with in case it takes off again. Even then you can close out the calls at a small loss if you think it's going to run up again. Time decay is your friend in this scenario. Sell the calls while the price is high (and if there is some short covering to be done this week, that may provide a good selling point - premiums should be high with the recent price moves), and wait. Even if the price stays flat or rises slightly, you may still profit over time as the calls lose value with passage of time (which is what you want if you want to hold the stock - short calls worth $0 at expiration).

     

    I hope I properly interpreted the "HTL Tech" I saw and that this is useful.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2009, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    I bought IVAN years ago while they were still testing a small prototype in Bolovia. It supposedly worked but the real interest was their Chinese involvement. China didn't let Westerners in.

     

    They did nothing for quite a while with pops and subsequent drops. Last year Talisman Energy took an interest. Sold them some Canadian properties to work with a HTL project, with this backing they raised capital. (just before the collapse in crude). I believe it was earlier this year that Ecuador invited them to work their Heavy oil. They sold their US based assets for $40 million. If this machine works, they will be using it in Canada and in Ecuador. TLM agreed to buy the Production from the Canadian project. The way I understand it, its a closed system and soil is not contaminated. Pictures from the outside but no schematics.

     

    I do not have a clue how close they are to completing anything, All of my shares were purchased above $3, I'm in no hurry.

     

    Since its below my purchase Price, its a Dormant Dog, I just let it sleep.

     

    I will look at your charts, PS, I do not own HYGS. I was interested in it a few years back when they were selling portable hydrogen Generators to the Chinese but wasn't aware of the Fuel Cell development until someone wrote about it on SA and it received short shrift from Peterson.

     

    14 Sep 2009, 03:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    I completely misinterpreted the phrase "HTL TECH" I think, now. I thought you were asking what I thought of the chart patterns.

     

    LOL!

     

    I'm sorry if that wsted much of your time!

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Sep 14 03:18 AM one eye wrote:

     

    > I bought IVAN years ago while they were still testing a small prototype
    > in Bolovia. It supposedly worked but the real interest was their
    > Chinese involvement. China didn't let Westerners in.
    >
    > They did nothing for quite a while with pops and subsequent drops.
    > Last year Talisman Energy took an interest. Sold them some Canadian
    > properties to work with a HTL project, with this backing they raised
    > capital. (just before the collapse in crude). I believe it was earlier
    > this year that Ecuador invited them to work their Heavy oil. They
    > sold their US based assets for $40 million. If this machine works,
    > they will be using it in Canada and in Ecuador. TLM agreed to buy
    > the Production from the Canadian project. The way I understand it,
    > its a closed system and soil is not contaminated. Pictures from the
    > outside but no schematics.
    >
    > I do not have a clue how close they are to completing anything, All
    > of my shares were purchased above $3, I'm in no hurry.
    >
    > Since its below my purchase Price, its a Dormant Dog, I just let
    > it sleep.
    >
    > I will look at your charts, PS, I do not own HYGS. I was interested
    > in it a few years back when they were selling portable hydrogen Generators
    > to the Chinese but wasn't aware of the Fuel Cell development until
    > someone wrote about it on SA and it received short shrift from Peterson.
    >
    >
    >
    14 Sep 2009, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • one eye
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    The Dormant Dog, IVAN, woke up today and said Bow, wow. It looked like he was smiling, I'm staring to smile Too.

     

    Good Doggie, There are lots of refineries able to refine Light Crude in the USA.
    Heavy to Light Technology and Ivan has a couple of big fields to play in.

     

    Lease the Tech to some of the big boys, Good thing They are Australian and have gotten their Assets out of the USA. Give them a few years, Heavy will be the New Light.

     

    Meanwhile, LYNCF, is still dormant but working to produce almost pure Clean Diesel from Coal. It this tech get going, There will be no stopping the Swarms rushing into Coal Diesel. The Process is Patented, they are also Australian.
    16 Sep 2009, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • wind4me
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NGLPF got their financing but the revs to loan ratio make me want to sell.......back to APWR focus

     

    On Sep 12 04:18 AM one eye wrote:

     

    > I'm not a trader either. I build positions for the future with a
    > 3 to 5 year time horizon. Thats why so many of my dormant dogs have
    > suddenly come to life.
    >
    > I saw where NGLPF had laid the power lines for the starup in early
    > Oct but did you read where they had contracted to lay lines that
    > would be able to handle 120 MW?
    >
    > I bought 1,000 shares at $0.80 a few days ago, plan to lay low and
    > wait to see if they can break the Old highs, will add on as it moves
    > higher. I like stocks which require me to Average Up.
    14 Oct 2009, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • wind4me
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » given the growth /earnings/profit projections of the coming years, I will stick with (APWR) for a few years since APWR is the upcoming ''First Solar'' of China and the (GE) joint venture for Asia's largest gearbox plant is going to add gazillions of profits down the road. One might not know about APWR but everyone has heard of GE!!

     

    On Sep 12 01:34 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > OE- I would like to know how you determine when a dog has been kicked
    > but will rise, v when it's been broken. You are a true investor rather
    > than a speculator. For me, I limit my long term holds to stocks with
    > excellent dividends and cash positions that can weather market gyrations.
    > Even then, it's hard not to take profits sometimes, and just let
    > them sit. What parameters do you use to hold them when they look
    > bad for years? Thank you.
    11 Nov 2009, 05:28 PM Reply Like
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