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Eyes On Presidential Election In Turkey

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

USD/TRY

  • Tayyip Erdogan is the clear favourite of Turkish presidential election that will take place on Sunday. He is set to secure his place in history as Turkey's first popularly-elected president. Until now, Turkish presidents have been chosen by parliament. Electoral rules ban the publication of opinion polls in the immediate run-up to the vote, but two surveys last month put Erdogan's support on 55-56 percent. This is 20 points ahead of the main opposition candidate, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, and enough to secure the simple majority needed to win in the first round. Erdogan's vision for a strong, hands-on president sets him in sharp contrast with his main rival who has warned against an executive-style system, arguing that the head of state should be impartial and rise above the turbulence of daily politics.
  • Industrial production rose in June by 0.1% mom and 1.4% yoy vs. growth by 3.5% yoy a month earlier.
  • The USD/TRY increased to 2.1873 on Friday, its highest since March 31, from 2.1670 late on Thursday as a sell-off of risky assets continued over tension from conflicts in Ukraine and Iraq. The USD/TRY is being traded below the Thursday's close at the time of writing. In our opinion no positions on the USD/TRY are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 2.1873 (high Aug 8), 2.1970 (Mar 28), 2.2220 (high Mar26)

Support: 2.1514 (low Aug 7), 2.1200 (low Aug 5), 2.1078 (low Jul 30)

EUR/PLN

  • Our yesterday's position reached the stop-loss level of 4.2185. In our opinion no positions on the EUR/PLN are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Significant technical levels:

Resistance: 4.2250 (high Aug 8), 4.2336 (high Mar 18), 4.2463 (high Mar 13)

Support: 4.1875 (low Aug 7), 4.1800 (low Aug 6), 4.1600 (low Aug 5)

We have currently no trading positions on CEE markets.

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Growth Aces