Seeking Alpha

Simit Patel's  Instablog

Simit Patel
Send Message
I'm a precious metals and energy investor as well as a currency trader who combines analysis of geopolitics, monetary economics, energy technology, innovation cycles, Internet technology, and technical price patterns to develop trading and investing outlooks. I trade/invest in all timeframes --... More
My company:
InformedTrades
My blog:
Forex Trading Journal
My book:
Wealth Management in the New World
  • Ex-CIA Warns of War in Middle East -- What’s the Economic Impact? 1 comment
    Jul 18, 2011 2:46 PM | about stocks: USO, DBA, DBB, DBC, GLD, SLV
    Former CIA official Bob Baer, known for being the agent who served as inspiration for the main character of the film Syriana, made headlines today stating that he expects Israel to attack Iran in September.

    How will this impact financial markets and the global economy? A few ideas:

    Higher prices in precious metals and commodities; think GLD, SLV, DBA, DBB, DBC, USO. War tends to be bullish for commodity prices, due to supply destruction via usage by military forces as well as by destruction of enemy supplies. Oil prices, or even sensitivity on the part of the market resulting from news and rumors, could impact prices along the entire energy sector.

    This case is reinforced by price action; in the chart below, note the pattern of higher lows forming while the daily range is consolidating -- basically an ascending triangle pattern.




    On the right news event, I think oil is poised to make a break out higher, and revisit its previous recent high at around $114, and likely higher from there as the trend of inflationary monetary policy resumes.  I believe downside risk is capped at $88, and would not that expect that level to be breached barring some type of sincere political desire to accept a deflationary spiral coupled with significant withdrawal of US troops from military bases around the world.


    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Stocks: USO, DBA, DBB, DBC, GLD, SLV
Back To Simit Patel's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (1)
Track new comments
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    We should withdraw our troops from Europe. Look how badly they are doing against puny little ole Libyan leader Kadaffy duck. They are running out of ammo, bullets, spare parts and thier equipment is falling apart. We need to leave europe and quit carrying them so they can learn to stand on thier own two feet again.

     

    Obviously they could not fight thier way out of a wet paper bag at this point.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:05 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • chart analysis of $txn (texas instruments) http://bit.ly/c5fVEh triangle pattern forming, mkt consolidating
    Aug 12, 2010
  • coca cola chart ($ko); potential oppty to short at 59.40? if candlesticks confirm IMHO. http://bit.ly/c7yQQS
    Aug 11, 2010
  • hutrade shares intermarket analysis; concludes major reversals imminent. nice tech analysis here: http://bit.ly/avzcMv $es $spy $dx $tlt
    Aug 11, 2010
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.