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  • WEEK IN FOCUS - 18/06/12-22/06/12 0 comments
    Jun 18, 2012 3:29 AM

    With Greece, the birthplace of democracy, failing to deliver on its heritage and provide a satisfactory conclusion to their political saga, it seems the pain in the Southern states is far from over. Some relief will be felt from the pro-bailout New Democracy party taking the most votes, however, with no clear majority, the Greek political leaders will now attempt to form a stable governing coalition in order to bring their country back from the brink. All eyes will be on Syriza's Machiavellian leader Tsipras, who has indicated in the past that he would be unwilling to take part in an unstable confluence of parties, which he believes would not be in the Hellenic Republic's primary interest. Any exchanges between the anti-bailout Tsipras and his opposite number from New Democracy, Samaras, will be closely watched and could prove to be a major indicator in the future of Greek governance.

    Where the PBOC has led, others appear to be following, with central bankers acting and indicating further support for their respective economies. With the Bank of England announcing their new ECTR measures last week and the ECB ensuring liquidity measures should they be needed, eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve, who are to announce their latest rate decision this Wednesday. For many, the question of a third wave of QE from Bernanke has changed from 'if' to 'when' and the release of their projections for the US economy will be closely watched. Current analysis for the US is relatively downbeat, with data being consistently disappointing. As such, it is largely expected that growth projections will be revised downwards as well as a possible a delay in the inevitable hike of interest rates off their historic low levels. Elsewhere from central banks this week, the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia as well as the Bank of Japan are due to release their respective minutes, which are likely to show that the European debt crisis continues to dampen the hopes of bankers for a moderate recovery, as the headwind of the debt storm erodes confidence.

    Assistance from the powers-that-be will continue to be a hot topic this week, as weekend reports suggest that the new French President is set to propose a EUR 120bln growth bill for the flagging continental economies. The Bundestag will be closely watched for a reaction as the bill runs against the prevalent school of thought in Germany. As such, the plans could be shot down, continuing to show the dominance of Berlin over-and-above all other leaders. Another proposed measure set to receive attention this week is the introduction of short-term 'Euro-bills' by the EU, although many may see this as a plaster for a bullet wound and a poor substitute for the ever-controversial Eurobond plan. Wires will be closely watched for the mechanics behind the plans, and any negative reaction from Merkel and her allies.

    Although market focus does remain on the global macroeconomic issues, there are a number of significant pieces of data due for release that should be noted. These figures include the latest housing starts figures from the US, the monthly IFO survey from Germany and UK inflation and unemployment readings. The UK CPI release will be closely watched, as the rate has finally begun to decline back towards target, lessening the anti-inflation argument for additional asset purchases from the BoE at their July meeting.

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