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Moon Kil Woong
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.
  • Stock ideas for 2011 129 comments
    Feb 26, 2011 1:49 PM | about stocks: SKM
    I was thinking to put together a list of 20 stocks to track from my followers and 1 from me (although if you read my posts you can see my actions). To keep it simple, a person may make a trade from the stock no more than once per month and any announce the buy before the market closes. The trade takes effect at the begining of the next day (please post the price and I'll verify it). It wil be $1,000 value for each stock picked for a $21,000 portfolio and must be traded on a US tradable exchange (no pink sheets or overseas exchanges since thinly traded stocks are too affected by pump jobs and overseas trades are sometimes difficult for readers to buy). Any company under $10 million in market cap will be excluded from the selection.

    I'll start disclosing people's selections and start once I get a full selection. I plan to post the performance the end of every month after the picks are in. This is a intermediate trading selection, not a day trader forum since you can only trade max once a month and can't pick your price mid-day so you don't get to really pick your entry and exit point precisely. If you choose to sell you do not have to immediately select another. You can let it ride as cash with no interest. You may also short. Someone who stays in cash for over 3 months will automatically be replaced.

    I and others may be curious about the stock long term. For me I'll add SKM to the board 2/26/2011 at $17.52 even though it shows it traded lower after hours. I disclosed my buy into it last week as my most recent reccomend on SA as well as my exit from my 1 week NFLX short and sales of GLW. As people's reccomendations get posted I'll announce them and the price they entered at. Please send your reccomendations to my mail here. I'll post results ending March and announce picks and changes as we go along. If the post gets too long please watch for new posts and happy picking.

    In the future, if there are way more than 20 pickers I will cycle in and out of people based on performance and or compelling story. As the base gets bigger those that stay on will account for a bigger percent of the weighting and new entrants will start at the $1,000 mark. Hopefully, the total value of the fund will not need more additions from the $22,000 base. $1,000 of the tracking will be considered cash and is used to make up for the the loss of people leaving who have a net loss. Hopefully, we will not have to add any more. I will also accure a $15 cost to every trade and list it seperately so you can see how fees would accrue from trading since people always argue that trading cost is not taken into account. The issue of people saying you would manipulate the market with a buy is satisfied by the low value and the fact that trades are made at the openting where you are least likely to affect the price by a trade. Anyway, people are sticklers when it comes to stock tracking.   

    When issuing your stock picks please give an explaination.

    I'm bullish on SKT for a few reasons. It is aiming to dominate the higjh end of the mobile market in Korea. It trades at a very low PE. It has exclusive agreements to sell Galaxy in Korea and just got approved to sell iPhone next month in Korea even though the first award was given to its rival. Although this stock has languished as a dog for years, I believe it is waking up. I'm also not a bull on the US $ and think Korea will likely raise rates and bolster the Won's value to the US $ sooner than Bernanke, although that is not saying much. Bernanke's monetary policy is worse than just about anyone's. Korea's stock market has been rising as well. I expect the stock can appreciate a good 20% with very little risk. As you know, I take safety and risk into account and is one of the reason's my picks on SA don't lose $. For me the first lesson in the market is a good trade is a profitable one. Making large massive gains comes second to safety.

    I reserve full rights to add, remove, post or not post people's selections, etc. I also request people send me some info about themselves for vetting. My purpose here it to avoid day traders, stock promoters, etc. and provide decent selections to my followers. Furthermore, mty aim is to allow people I belive will provide positive results and prevent completely lopesided weighting, like all picks being gold moners for instance.

    Happy posting, reading, and picking.    

    Portfolio: $22,000

    SKM: 57.077 shares / $1,000
    Trading cost: 15
    Cash $20,985 
    Stocks: SKM
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Comments (129)
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  • Author’s reply » From: User 283977 (POT) 16.66 shares at 60


    I'm adding POT as the first entry oer his suggestion. GL blue mouse. Let's see how it performs. I have personally considered POT and so far have missed out. Let's see if the uptrend continues. Shares will adjust to splits of course.


    One Part of a Food Play:
    As the world’s population grows, farmers must increase crop yield in order to meet demand. Meanwhile, many of the countries in the world are experiencing extreme drought or flooding, neither conducive to growing crops. Add to this increased income in emerging economies, which increases demand for more, and better food. These factors favor investments related to food production. This requires a significant increase in the amount of crop nutrients.


    Potash is the world’s largest fertilizer company by capacity. They produce potash, phosphate and nitrogen, the primary nutrients for food crops. Potash, as well as phosphate and nitrogen, are absolutely essential to the global agricultural community.


    MOS is selling for 85.03. However, with POTs recent 3 for 1 stock split, POT is currently selling at 60.36. I like MOS and particularly its cash position, but with the recent split, I like POTs price per share. I can buy 16.57 shares of POT for $1,000.


    One Part of an Energy Play
    Recent flooding in Queensland has disrupted access to Australia’s vast coal supplies, particularly metallurgical coal. Metallurgical coal is needed to make steel. Both China and India's coal needs will be increasing due to increasing economic expansion.
    26 Feb 2011, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Hi guys... please dis-reguard the "One Part of an Energy Play part of the post... that was for another play...
    26 Feb 2011, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Moon: Great idea! Fantastic. What's brilliant about this idea is that you're attempting to assemble through SA a group, a diverse club of intelligent investing ideas, from very astute investors.


    I write again. Brilliant idea! No doubt a great percentage of forthcoming choices will out perform.


    I will be following herefoward closely.


    And, I already know my stock pick to submit. Pending some crazy meltdown, this stock will be up 40 to 70% by this time next year. On top of being up about 145% since September 17 last year.


    27 Feb 2011, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It's great to hear from you Mayascribe. I did it due to requests to provide stock reccomendations and officially track at least 1 pick of mine. I think people have pains reading through my thousands of posts to see what I reccomended. As noted, recently I exited Corning and played Netflix last week with a short. I am still in AMAT, NUAN, ISRG, and TECD.


    I refly on you guys to get the giant momentum gainers since I am a more cautious fundamentalist, although sometimes I too have my giant winners.
    27 Feb 2011, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Mayascribe entered XIDE as his pick. I made a nice profit on this battery maker last year, so apparently Maya feels it still has some legs to keep going. Unlike so many other "promising" battery makers out there XIDE has been chalking up the deals to get real earnings meat. XIDE trades at $11.91 and will buy him a good 83.963 shares. I am awaiting his analysis on why he likes XIDE this year.


    There are still 18 more open spots.
    27 Feb 2011, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lower 98th entered NCA into the portfolio, a gas and oil exploration play. I will add it at the value of the close today.
    3 Mar 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry I mean ECA. It is entered today at $32.33 with 30.93 shares. Lower 98th will provide some information on his pick.
    3 Mar 2011, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • The macro thesis for this pick is that North American natural gas is undervalued, its historic ratios to oil and other commodities are at historic lows, and that valuation for natgas could increase during 2011. As the invitation from Moon is for stocks, not futures, MLP's or index tracking ETFs, I have selected Encana as a proxy for natural gas. Encana (ECA) is an integrated Canadian oil and gas producer with a solid balance sheet and a 2 1/2% dividend to boot. It is a conservative stock likely to retain value even if more favorable market conditions do not materialize. ECA is quite likely undervalued even at today's depressed natgas prices.


    Low natural gas prices are a function of a perceived glut of gas, fueled by new discoveries in unconventional geology. It is possible that the anticipated over-supply may be exaggerated due to fracking issues, and that as an industry (like oil) the suppliers will adapt their exploitation of these new reserves, consolidate and manage supply to their benefit. There are demand positives as well. China and Asia are LNG importers, and have been increasing their investments in gas-related ventures. North America's energy needs and alternative energy politics might also result in a backdrop favorable to natural gas.


    Long ECA, Long Natural Gas Indexes, Long Natural Gas upstream pipelines.
    10 Mar 2011, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Acehart has entered with SLW, silver Wheaton and Doubleguns has entered GPL, which is another silver miner and one I mentioned I also hold. Their stock was down due to the extinguishment of debt which is a good thing. It shows how silly the market can be. Although it dilutes the share base it is more than made up for by brushing up the balance sheet and deleting interest payments at 8%.


    Their entries will be posted at the opening price tomorrow morning. We will see if doubling up on the fastest rising commodity is a good thing for this portfolio.
    10 Mar 2011, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » SLW opens its position at $41.33 for 23.07 shares and GPL opens at $4.19 and buys 238.66 shares. Good luck silverbugs.
    10 Mar 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • I bought SLW today.
    10 Mar 2011, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Nice User 283977. Did you get GPL too? Why not?
    11 Mar 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • I’m a silver nut and I picked Great Panther for the following reasons.


    1. Recent expansion of newly discovered mineralizations at the San Ignacia mine are underway and they are intersecting those zones of discovered minerals of gold and silver. This will increase their production levels this year but that increase is not included in their prduction estimates for 2011 and 2012.


    2. March 8, 2011 they extinguished $4,050,000.00 of long term debt.


    3. March 7, 2011 Topia mine mineral resources have been updated from the 2009 numbers resulting in a 36.3% increase in the “Measured and Indicated” category and 109.3% increase in the “Inferred” category of mineral resources present.


    4. Feb 7, 2011 Great Panther was listed on the NYSE under symbol GPL.


    5. Jan 27, 2011 Discovered deep mineralized silver-gold zones at Guanajuatito mine at the 245 meter level. Presently they are working the 80 meter zone.


    6. 2010 was a record production year with increases of silver up 5%, gold up 1%, lead up 25% and zinc up 29%. This represents a total of 2,255,802 silver oz equivalent production total.


    7. Great Panther has a goal of reaching 2.87 million silver oz equivalent production for 2011 and a 3.8 million silver oz equivalent production for 2012. These production goals DO NOT include any production from the newly discovered minerals at the San Ignacio mine mentioned in #1 above.


    8. Finally Great Panther has begun to sell silver rounds and bars directly to the public creating another revenue stream and additional interest in Great Panther.


    I think we could see this stock price double over the next 12 months and it would not surprise me if that happened earlier.


    I presently am long GPL and purchased 200 additional shares today at $4.15
    10 Mar 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks Doubleguns, might I add that their current silver mining costs are just about the lowest at a $7 per ounce cost. It is hard to beat that and their earnings will well outperform the mild expectations even with expansion. I own GPL too.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you ver much for taking this venture on!
    13 Mar 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry I forgot to post HT Love entered with CPST which posts at opening today. That gives him 645.16 shares at $1.55. It closed at $1.66. Sorry for not posting it on time.
    16 Mar 2011, 04:08 AM Reply Like
  • Why I like Capstone Turbine (CPST).


    1. Multi-fuel CCHP-capable, low-maintenance, low TCO electric and heat generation, low emissions, remote monitoring capability.
    2. Worldwide usage in applications as diverse as: power provision for remote oil and gas platforms; generation from waste-water treatment gas, landfill gas, coal seam gas, high-sulfur gas, and bio-gas; CCHP provision from NG for swimming pools, ice rinks, hotels; now being applied in “micro-grid” distributed generation; being integrated high efficiency boilers and conversions by WESCO; being applied in the U.S. for gas pipeline systems; recently began penetration of U.S. Markets for shale NG production applications.
    3. Applications under development, by various “partners” include personal (H)EV, commercial (H)EV, electric drives for marine applications, auxiliary power for luxury watercraft, advanced increased-efficiency multi-stage turbine, solar-powered turbine with NG (or any acceptable fuel) for fallback when the sun is down or days are cloudy.
    4. Since the new management team was installed 4 years ago, focus on cost control, margin improvement and a better distributor network has produced, even through “The Great Recession:


    - new high for quarterly revenue with over $24 million shipped to customers worldwide; more revenue in one quarter than Capstone's annual revenue for all of fiscal 2007; 50% higher YoY
    - operating expenses at a level $1 million lower than the prior quarter
    - improved inventory turns at 3.8x
    - $4 million in positive cash flow from operations during the third quarter
    - first time in Capstone's 20-plus year history the company generated positive cash flow from business
    - backlog $85 million as bookings were very strong in both the U.S. and abroad, net bookings for the quarter approximately 40% higher than prior quarter, orders have gone from $11 million to over $14 million to now $20 million in just the last three quarters
    - Factory Protection Plan service backlog was at $26 million; FPP service revenue should surpass the $1 million per quarter mark in the fourth quarter
    - 15 consecutive quarters of revenue growth
    - $14.6 billion addressable market, targets potential capture $1.5 billion; from little or no revenue in the U.S. shale plays to selling $10 million in less than six months; seeded products today in companies like El Paso Gas, Pioneer Natural Resources, Anadarko Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy, CONSOL Energy and both the Marcellus and Eagle Ford shale plays.


    5. Management placed on influential panels such as WADE, Sec'y Chu's Energy Efficiency panel, the new export panel established under Lockhart(?)
    6. Nearing agreement with a “Fortune 500” company to either produce and market a demo vehicle with Capstone turbine or with another “Fortune 500” company to produce higher-quality lower-cost components; I believe the second is most likely and an on-site meeting with one of these two took place the day after the most recent conference call
    7. Apparent recent awareness in the U.S. of the potential of the product in the U.S. Seems to be growing after two decades and may be our largest growth market among many; historically international sales have been 70% and is also still growing.


    Last I believe CPST is exiting the “the valley of death”, detailed by John Petersen here.



    A transcript of the most recent conference call is available here.



    16 Mar 2011, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » RMF I welcome your pick if you want to enter.
    16 Mar 2011, 04:08 AM Reply Like
  • Boy it looks like we picked a really challenging time to start this. Its going to be a real tough year the way things are shaping up. Mideast, Japan, QE2 ending, and the list goes on. Of course if it wasn't a challenge it would not be worth doing.
    16 Mar 2011, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yup it is. Well every downturn creats opportunity as well. Sadly it started before the downturn, but hope still springs eternal. What matters is the pick even more than just the timing. This is not a day trader portfolio I hope. On top of this I post the $20 per transaction cost. So you almost always start out - when you pick a stock.
    24 Mar 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • GPL suffering a dillution of 5 mil shares at 21 million dollars. The 5 mil shares are selling for $4.20.
    25 Mar 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL news keeps holding this portfolio down, but in the long run I think it will be fine. At least SKM and CPST are up. As for GPL I think the news isn't half bad. It gives GPL a solid base and I think they are sporting strong enough financials going forward to convince a few large investors they are worth way more than $4.20.


    Going forward I still expect GPL to exceed $5. Everyone is waiting for their next quarter's disclosure. I still hold GPL as well. With silver going up like this its hard not to hold any silver miner. We are doubled up having Silver Wheaton on this portfolio as well.
    25 Mar 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • I think it might slow it down as a bump in the road but overall I expect it to go up, just maybe not the double I had hoped for in the next 12 months but 20-40% would still be awsome.


    Silver has a lot of legs for many reasons right now.
    25 Mar 2011, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Some items related to it's near-term performance that might be of interest.


    This first link mentions some plans for the change out to (mostly?) (CPST) powered buses with purchases starting this year of up 2K. Also a presentation, not publicized by CPST, in Philly at a big-time energy confab.



    This next links to a "Material Definitive Agreement" allowing establishment of wholly-owned subsidiaries in Singapore and the U.K. (WFC) signs off on it with modifications the LOC.


    There's some discussion of other items as well.



    Last, "irrational exuberance" seems to have taken hold, or quarter-end "window dressing", I'm not sure which, and driven PPS way too far way too fast.


    With a full month or so before EOY reporting and short interest still quite high, there should be a tendency to push price down as enthusiasm wanes while the ADD market waits and shorts look for opportunities to drive price to an attractive cover level.


    This will likely be stymied only by a frequent stream of "catalyst" PR, which is possible but certainly not assured.


    I can see pps as low as $1.5x, but that would be fairly extreme. I've not done the chart work, but $1.7x seems fairly likely at first glance.


    My last concern is that expectations have been driven so high that the EOY report can't help but disappoint even though results are in line with past performance improvements. What would prevent this disappointment for sure would be an announcement of finalization of a deal with one of the "Fortune 500" companies, or an equivalent "block buster".


    My gut tells me we'll get one. But I would expect that if the deal is done, they'll hold the PR for the EOY - what a great wrap-up for a good year it would be and a nice set up for the annual shareholders meeting.


    If I'm reading all that right, we'll have a more or less quiet period up to the EOY report and cc and share price will have an opportunity to present you with another opportunity.


    I'll be adding if it gets near that $1.7x and the charts tell me there';s not a lot of downside risk left in it. I want to be "bulked up" by the time reporting rolls around.


    26 Mar 2011, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for that info HT... I want to get back in and have been waiting for an appropriate entry point.
    26 Mar 2011, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Moon: This is becoming a forum for great stock picks that you envisioned! But I'm pissed (not at you, but of my timing). First-to-respond me to your proposition got whacked with my Exide pick at a high before the recent downturn. But it's picking up. Along with the market.


    In all honesty, if I were allowed to have chosen a stock under ten bucks, I would have chosen Axion Power (AXPW) as my favorite. I'd be kicking everyone's butts! Already up around 30%. Several other stocks you know I favorite are Great Western Minerals (GWMGF), Lynas (LYSCF), Beacon Power (BCOND), ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) and Kandi (KNDI). Everyone of these stocks, if the world doesn't blow up, I fully expect to be up over 100% by this time next year.


    Well ahead of Exide's predicted performance, which I target at somewhere between $15.00 and $18.00. Still not a bad gain!


    I love multiples!
    26 Mar 2011, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Oops! I don't think ATPG will be up over 100%. But $30.00 price target I have still gets you a 50% gain.
    26 Mar 2011, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Summation of a post in the QC.


    Expected drop happening now. A better than anticipated add/entry price may be seen, but full TA not yet done.



    28 Mar 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Summary of post in QC: new program manager position filled eff. 4/6. Looks to me to be a strong addition,



    28 Mar 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST) Darren Jamison interviewd on FBN, about 5 minute video.



    30 Mar 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Great interview! Thanks.
    30 Mar 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Here is the month end percentage results by stock:


    ECA +6.8%
    SLW +4.9%
    GPL +2.6%
    CPST +16.78%
    SKM +7.4%
    POT -1.8%
    XIDE -6.2%


    Average performance is 4.35%


    Given that this is just a start and most pics haven't even completed a full 4 weeks the performance is outstanding. I guess I should expect nothing less from SA posters.


    I invite other well informed followers and SA posters to join. The 21k fund is still mostly cash which is kind of sad. I guess that's a very bearish stance for lack of any other credible suggestions. Please see my post to view the stock pick requirements before messaging me or suggesting a stock on the instablog.


    The winner of course is HT Love with a giant 16+ % gain on CPST in such a short time. We will see how it does the next month.


    Thanks to all the posters. Your performance will be go down in SA history.
    31 Mar 2011, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Congrats to HTL, and thanks to all for some interesting ideas here.


    I'm waiting to get back in on Doublegun's GPL after taking some profits there a short time ago (mostly by luck, I sold out at the close the day before their dilution).
    31 Mar 2011, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Moon: Please change out my Exide shares to shares of Axion Power (AXPW), if we are indeed allowed to choose a stock under $10.00. Axion Shares are $1.14 right now. Exide at $11.18 as of today's closing.


    1 Apr 2011, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hi, the pick can't be done due to the fact we don't allow pink sheets, over the counter stocks, or overseas exchange stocks. To do this would mean it wouldn't make an easy comparison to the S&P 500 and violates the thinly traded and easily accessible stocks to those following this. I like your battery tech focus. Do you have any other suggestion or want to hold onto XIDE until it turns positive?
    1 Apr 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Hard: I picked up some Kandi (KNDI) yesterday on a technical trade. Suggest to read the conference stuff. Was great. Yet the stock pulled back, allowing me to buy the programmed reversion to the mean trade, once again.


    Just when I start to get this stuff, I'm piling into Axion, so that I can work on my book. Feeling like I just donned the mortar board trading-wise, and am now I'm defecting from the squared cap of obtained knowledge these past few years.
    1 Apr 2011, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Got two orders totaling ~$17M+ recently.


    Will be at a confab 4/19-4/21 too.



    5 Apr 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): "Capstone Turbine Corporation Signs OEM Agreement to be Supplier, Distributor for SET Corp MultiGen System"



    "... has signed an OEM agreement with Sustainable Environmental Technologies Corp (SET Corp) (OTCQB:SETS). Capstone has received its first order from SET Corp and will supply microturbines and accessories used in the manufacture of SET Corp's high efficiency MultiGen cooling, heating, power and water generation systems. Additionally, SET Corp will leverage Capstone's extensive distributor network for sales support and after sale service".


    6 Apr 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): First *production* large marine application AFAIK.
    Two C30s to be installed on an LNG carrier apparently.



    7 Apr 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): over in the QC is a comment that links to video of a Wrightspeed conversion of an Isuzu delivery truck to an EV with a Capstone range-extender.



    8 Apr 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): A new unannounced as yet product is available. Comment and links at


    9 Apr 2011, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Login process may not be needed? Might be "cookies" left from prior visit?


    9 Apr 2011, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): 7 job postings for Capstone - something is coming our way.


    Comment and link


    9 Apr 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Another decent order and an additional application in the NG sector - being used for primary power at company headquarters.


    Sounds like Dominion to me.



    12 Apr 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • A claimed O & G investor says that adoption of Capstone in the industry is in its early stages.



    12 Apr 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Going heavy wasn't a good play in April as all mineral stocks in this selection declined leaving ECA, CPST, and SKM the only positive ones.


    Here are the year to date results.


    ECA +3.71%
    SLW -1.72%
    GPL -1.36%
    CPST +2.45%
    SKM +8.33%
    POT -6.03%
    XIDE -15.7%


    Everyone can hope for a better May. I welcome other suggestions by new members wishing to try out their hand. If no other person enters a selection I'll add another one of my own the first day of June. I'm hoping another entrant joins to fill out the portfolio.


    Don't be so down, long term I think these pics are fine and it is a long term portfolio. Let the silly people pick penny stocks and win and loose on giant volatility. Doing so may leave you bankrupt on a big market meltdown.
    2 May 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • That reminds me - I forgot to post here.


    (CPST): Another big O&G follow-on order.



    2 May 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Better to be in last place in a virtual game than the real one!
    2 May 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Haha, well hopefully XIDE will be vindicated when earnings come along. The market is always fickle and unpredictable.
    3 May 2011, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): There's a bill moving through the California legislatire that would require purchase of excess electricity from users of micro-turbines and fuel cells that run on waste or stranded gas associated with the extraction of oil or gas. Good potential a couple years down the road.



    3 May 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Posted in the QC is a link to a 1 page DPF that tells us that our Italian distributor is entering a JV to make buses and ... stree sweepers, a new application.


    Nothing more worth reading there, really. But that distributor has been pretty good about doing what it says it will.


    Should be a year or two down the road.



    4 May 2011, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST) California leads the way again.


    In the case of Capstone, FedEx will be running a Kenworth HEV with a turbine in 2012.



    5 May 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Greenvironment PLC has awoken. 4MW order from Russia and I assure you that this is the first of many from Greenvironment in Europe. Financial markets got more friendly last year for them and they are just cracking their floodgates in many areas.



    10 May 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Very nice indeed. I think this stock now is the leader again.
    10 May 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Equitrac bought out by Nuance.
    11 May 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Nice little write-up in that should help smaller businesses consider a CPST solution with much less trepidation.



    13 May 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Trying to add a little for my wife's account @ $1.78.


    13 May 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Sec'y Chu has another initiative going that may or may not benefit (CPST).



    19 May 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): BPC ordered 60 C30 MTs for the pipeline being constructed to China.



    23 May 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Fourth Quarter & Fiscal Year 2011 Results 6/14 13:45 PST.



    27 May 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Russel rebalancing schedule and which ones Capstone is in. If we have any severe price movement, especially if the EOQ/EOY report is substantially less than what "the community" was hoping for, watch out for the potential of removal from the indexes. That's been a big negative in the past.



    27 May 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Some speculation related to the non-PR'd new 15KW MT product.



    29 May 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): I think this is another "ramp up" point for our Russian distributor, already the largest customer. They've applied a couple C1000s to providing *all* power needs for an oil field, using co-located gas that used to be flared. Russian environmental edicts mandated reductions in pollution.



    31 May 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Most stock have chosen the red hot commodities market when starting this and are paying the price. The question is now will they be vindicated over time. As for Capstone news still keeps coming out but the shares have retreated a bit. SKM melted down as the Telecom provider announced its systems spin off which is the fastest growth area dealing with high end services. This takes some of the hot story out of the stock and the price is reflecting that. SKM announced that to supposedly help the system business adapt to hyper growth but the market seems to be showing its more a political issue about someones not being happy. Apparently the shareholders are not the ones they made this choice for. Anyway value wise SKM is still a great value play.


    GPL seems to be bottoming out. BTW April's GPL performance was -13.6% not 1.36%. We will see if June's silver contracts will spell a return to health for this COMEX reserve requirement silver smackdown.


    Here are the stock performance results from the time of purchase to May:


    ECA +5.4%
    SLW -11.1%
    GPL -22.4%
    CPST +12.25%
    SKM +1%
    POT +5.7%
    XIDE -17.2%


    Feel free to update or post.
    1 Jun 2011, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry... POT is -5.7% that puts only 3 in the plus column.
    1 Jun 2011, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the update Moon!


    Just wanted to mention that I had expressed concerns about the (CPST) price being manipulated or hammered by shorts. I've seen this many times over the years. I still see instances on the 1 minute charts, but the frequency has subsided. My guess is that most of the long whales are positioned where they want to be ATM, reducing the need of the market makers to move price around so they can satisfy their large customers.


    I think that most whales are awaiting the report to take profits, so no need to drive price up right now so they can sell to minnows.


    With the EOQ/EOY report due out 6/14, this should be the beginning of the last cycle of this sort of activity, if any, leading into the report. Just prior we'll probably see the usual volatility as folks either bail in fear (from either short or long positions) and others who are unabashed bulls (anybody we know? :-)) look to get one last add or get in.


    If the whales are where they want to be, we might not see the volume as high as it has been quite often over the last few months.


    I've got GTC orders @ $1.66. Might be too low - but a minor overshoot of the current potential support @ ~$1.68 will get me filled. If not, I've really got more than I should have anyway, so I'll have to be satisfied with that.


    Re shorts: the next short report will be out 6/9. Very high short interest. Some have suggested that the value is so high because of hedge funds covering their long positions by shorting. Some hedgers are very long and have stated they play both sides. Gilder Gagnon Howe & Co., for example. Mathematically, this leaves them "market neutral". I mention this because I don't know how they are likely to behave if the report is as positive as I expect. ISTM they need to be exiting some of the short positions at some time - likely on cyclic lows I would think. But recent behavior is to see shorts increase on up legs. Will they continue this behavior if we get a positive report? I have no way of even guessing.


    If the report is not good, I know what to expect.


    1 Jun 2011, 05:19 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): A potential benefit from Designline, that had not really panned out over several years, is now of the table as Designline is in bankruptcy. The application, buses, is still starting up in Russia and elsewhere though, so I don't think the applications have yet started to show how much potential might be there. That will take time.


    "Shock job losses for Chch bus manufacturer"


    Thanks to Gene_Genome at Investorshub for the post.


    1 Jun 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Not significant right now, I think, but Heliofocus now has the CPST-based solar product listed as a product, not an investigation as it was in the past.


    Still many steps to market and refine I think, but it's a possible first step. e.g, they don't yet mention the fallback ability to run on variousd (locally provided?) fuels when or "where the sun don't shine". :-))



    1 Jun 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I heard there are rumors CPST will need to raise another round of funding that is holding a cap over the stock price. What's your take?
    1 Jun 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • That has been very real possibility in the past. However, their cash burn has been reducing substantially over the years and they had plenty COH as of last report (DJ stated "sufficient to achive profitability"). A/R balance has been improving, as has DSO.


    With the larger orders coming from the O&G area recently and the overseas orders, CPST s/b getting substantial remittances and maybe even deposits on some of the orders I would think. They had mentioned this possibility for some of their "weaker" distributors. But I don't know their policy and on better customers, like BPC (the recent 60 C30 order), maybe no up-front down is requested.


    Greenvironment, another good customer until their finances had difficulty during recessionary period, has now found the financial markets easier again and placed an order recently. Again, I can't say if they would have deposits required either.


    They recently convinced some warrant holders to exercise early and received substantial cash from that early redemption.


    This is one of those areas where I must rely on combining what I *do* know with what I *don't* know to come with a "best estimate".


    My best assessment is that no additional will be needed. Most of the suggestions I've seen that another round of capital raising would be needed have come from either full-on bears or (paid?) bashers.


    The longs I've been watching have admitted the risk, but have generally been of the mind that DJ has demonstrated that he has effectively managed to cash flow in the past and will continue to do so.


    That is my feeling as well.


    The bears/bashers hang their hat on "If they get a lot of orders, they need cash for ...". They forget that CPST has capacity for 4K units/year, typical mix, with very little capex - just a few more robots and some small line workers addition.


    The warrant exercise also removed the accounting trickery of showing additional liability on the books when the share price rises. So there's an excellent chance for an "upside surprise" at reporting as analyst estimates were made *prior* to knowledge of these early redemptions.


    There is a real possibility of a reported profit due to removal of that overhang, although I can't recall all the numbers well enough to lay odds on it.


    I hope that helps,
    1 Jun 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • AAPL, ARMH. I'm not sure if you need me to explain why. I'm guessing you don't. But for those of you don't know. AAPL (Apple), they have a strangle hold on the mobile market and their product momentum still have legs to run, they are executing and capitalizing on every computing front.


    ARMH (Arm holding) makers of mobile processors. ARMH supplies the Arm processors for Apple iPhone/iPad/Ipod. With mobile still exploding especially in the smart phone/tablet market, ARMH has ways to go even with Intel as their main competitor. Intel has a lot to catch up even with their new 3D gates that is supposed to help compete with ARM. Side note, ARM sells their mobile chips to not just Apple.
    1 Jun 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Woong, Most of these picks you have are very very speculative.
    1 Jun 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » These are selections from followers. And yes, I would categorize them as not fundamental or stable stocks. They certainly fit under higher beta than the general market. You're welcome to recommend a more "stable one". It would be appreciated. Actually SKM, other than being foreign is a blue chip type Korean stock. It is the only 1 I picked myself.
    2 Jun 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • I already did submit a more stable stock that is going UP. Go to one post above to see. (AAPL, ARMH)
    2 Jun 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST) Designline issued PR clarifying what's going on in NZ. Looks like it's not as dire as first indicated.



    1 Jun 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • HT: Should I be concerned about CPST? Some seem to be expecting dissapointing news
    2 Jun 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Good grief! You should always be concerned with any stock, of course.


    As stated earlier, most of the ones I've seen expressing those views over the years have been either perma-bears on the stock or (paid?) bashers.


    All I can offer is my pure *opinion*. If you're trading for short-term, yes be concerned. This is a highly manipulated stock. Has been ever since I've been in it. And the last few years it has also been *heavily* shorted, giving reason for a lot of bad-mouthing of it so that the shorts can get out alive or with huge profits.


    I'm expecting good news. But that's just me and should carry less weight than your own DD. I've been wrong before, will be again.


    As we've discussed before about "paper losses" and trading vs. investing, only your own DD, risk tolerance levels, patience and confidence can advise you.


    All I do is share what I know and my opinions. I do not presume to advise.


    2 Jun 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • As long as I am here...Moon
    I'd like to play this fun game (good idea btw)
    I will offer up IBC Advanced <IAALF> at this morning's price if you will allow (.19)
    This is one some of us have held for awhile (originally at .15)
    and seems to be making some waves...I will post more on it soon
    Thank you
    2 Jun 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » ok. I regularly don't allow a stock under a buck and pink sheet but we need more stocks. Please pick a regular one next one.Good luck. Your price will be the closing today whatever it may be ^^.
    2 Jun 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Just keeping comments related from QC here.


    Manipulated "take-down" today.



    The likely reason for it and the follow-on.



    And maybe the answer as to why they wanted to do it? Three seminars in two days.



    2 Jun 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Waving Exide white flag of surrender!


    Moon, please "sell" Exide.


    Buy Beacon Power (BCON). Thinking the 20MW plant opening next month should gather interest.


    2 Jun 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Watch out for Elephant Talk (ETAK.OB). Platform to be used by both Google and Apple in the forthcoming "cell phone wallet" to be launched later this year. Up over 19% today, to $2.94.


    Hoping I don't need a new I-Phone!
    2 Jun 2011, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok here are the changes to the portfolio, Rain H2O enters with IAALF.PK at 0.19 a share giving him 5,263 shares the end of 6/2/2011.


    Mayascribe sells his 83.96 shares of EXIDE at 7.76 for $651.52 and buys BCON at $1.33 giving him 489.87 shares. Hopefully he will fare better with this. Sadly XIDE continues to book restructuring and asset imparement which has somewhat discouraged investors proving sometimes extenuating circumstances aren't shown clearly in all company's accounting. I think their sales were also hurt by effects from Japan's quake.
    3 Jun 2011, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Hey MKW


    I would like to add CNIT to the portfolio.


    A small cap Chinese stock - with a diversified revenue stream ranging from geographic mapping & efficiencies to healthcare IT systems.


    This stock has been hammered in the past couple of months - primarily attributable to fraud concerns along with all other undervalued chinese companies. The CFO recently quit without an explanation - which triggered a sell-off.


    At this point, any fraud concerns have been significantly discounted from their net assets. This is without considering their future growth.


    BTW - i enjoy reading your blogs!
    5 Jun 2011, 03:36 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): 4 more C1000s from BPC in a very nice application that should continue to grow around the world.


    And, a nice touch, they are displacing some already existing recips in the process.



    6 Jun 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Details of the FBR Capital upgrade, worth reading since they list their assumptions and identify risks.



    6 Jun 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks for posting HTL. CNIT has been added today at $1.60 with 625 shares on Wonyoung Kim's recommendation. Given it fell dramatically today I hope a rebound is forthcoming. It is a very daring call, and if criticism is negated a very cheap one. The issue seems to be trust and credibility.
    6 Jun 2011, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Increased recruiting indicative of transition to broader customer base, higher volumes coming. Means, I think, that the coming report has to be good.



    8 Jun 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): another small order.



    8 Jun 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Thomson Reuters has a new report out dated today.



    9 Jun 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Short report for 5/31/2011.



    9 Jun 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Some news regarding Greenvironment plc, a good CPST customer, about their recent performance and projected activities through 2012.



    10 Jun 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • (CSPT): Zacks says look for an earnings beat.



    13 Jun 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST) Huge buying pressure today, apparently on some positive comments. Bid of ~3/4 million at best price right now.



    13 Jun 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Motley Fool, generally negative in the past, has found religion apparently.



    21 Jun 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST) Downgrades to underperform




    24 Jun 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Acrona starting an effort in South Africa.



    24 Jun 2011, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • If I may include an ETF I just purchased (JOF) Japanese small caps, My reasoning is that they are very cheap along with mid caps ETF (EWJ) anyway with P/B below one and the fact that through this latest downturn and the fact that Japan has gone through a major crisis and the YEN is super strong These ETF's have fared very well and both trade on the US exchanges I see little downside in these 2. You could also argue that Japanese have been living with deflation and zero interest rates and that they are not geared for inflation I believe inflation will show it's head here as well, people are heavily invested in the bond market which is the worst place to be with inflation therefore the money will move the the equity market long term trade though not sure it meets your criteria?


    If you are a believer in investing at point of maximum pessimism you may like to try (GRE) ETF of geek equities I will be purchasing a small amount of these. Reasoning they have been beaten badly and i believe the worst is priced in no other reason.
    30 Jun 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry this is only a stock portfolio. Allowing an ETF in a portfolio is overlayering and is not generally a good practice. If you have a good stock to offer I'd be more than happy to enter it as long as it adheres to the rules at the top. I do like Asian exposure. Too bad there are not more Korean and Japanese ADRs.
    2 Jul 2011, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • Ok Then (NZT) New Zealand telco approx 6% dividend has just broken out and was very strong during the recent Pullback. I bought this for my 401 at $9.66 but believe there is some good forward potential, just looks a solid growth stock with a good return. It is also a stock I managed to escape from being overweight in US stocks.
    Another Bellweather I believe would be boring Alcoa ( But i will go with (
    3 Jul 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Here are the grim June tallies:


    Mayascribe exited XIDE to BCON Exide posted a 39.13% decline to the time he sold and BCON had a 9.77% decline so far.


    ECA -4.76%
    SLW -20.15%
    GPL -20.76%
    CPST -1.29%
    SKM +6.74%
    POT -6.60%
    IAALF.PK -5.26%
    CNIT +30%


    As you can see being overweight commodities has pretty much slammed almost everyone. Congrats to Wonyoung for posting CNIT and logging the best performance. We will see if it holds up.


    I suppose the posters here are hoping for a resurgence in commodity stocks.
    2 Jul 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): mostly tech information, but gets into some economics and timelines later that might affect decisions.



    5 Jul 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): ... Third Service Blanket Order Valued at $8.6 Million From Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX)



    14 Jul 2011, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Robert B. Ferguson posted a link to a CPST poerweing a MA hospital.



    Management has a decent 26 page PDF presentation.



    19 Jul 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): weighs in with support for Capstone.



    21 Jul 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): I'll say one thing for the shorters - they're almost as hard-headed as I am.



    26 Jul 2011, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hah I'll say. They also move in flocks so they can blight a stock for quite a while waiting for some bad news to hop on.
    27 Jul 2011, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST) York PA wastewater treatment plant C600/C1000 order to save est. 278K/year and provide more benefits.



    28 Jul 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): A job posting for an engineer with automotive background and able to implement " ... and at vendor locations".



    28 Jul 2011, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Q1 report & CC 8/9 AMC.



    29 Jul 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST: This guy things the compnay is at risk. His limited logic is impeccable.



    2 Aug 2011, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Greenvironment 1st order in Romania.



    2 Aug 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): A new reporting source and comments on some potential results expected by me in the upcoming report.



    2 Aug 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): IBM has contract with Toledo University for another energy-efficient data center a la SUNY installation.



    4 Aug 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Rev $24.3M beats on earnings ($0.01).



    9 Aug 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): AH trading after CC steady rise on "decent" volume, +8.8% from close.


    I think the report was pretty decent.


    9 Aug 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Large AH volume finished @ $1.34.



    9 Aug 2011, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • I think the best stock idea is quickly turning into "get out!!"
    10 Aug 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » That's funny given the fact gold and silver miners are finally moving up.
    10 Aug 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • CME just raised margins on gold by 22%. The only good that can come from this is everyone moving thier futures accounts to hong kong.
    10 Aug 2011, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Moon the metals will do well as the manipulation of them so obviously demonstrates. The bangsters worst nighmare is the metals.
    10 Aug 2011, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): I screwed up. Details here.



    Apologies to all!


    11 Aug 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Some miscellaneous comments from over in the QC.


    How the nasty Aussie floods may have impacted CPST:


    Why CPST may be more than just an energy-price play as suggested by one:


    Possible "capitulation":


    11 Aug 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Great panter (GPL) 2nd quarter results. Revenue DOWN 8% and earnings up 15%... but there is a reason. They did not get to ship ore from one mine.

  is unfortunate that the delays in shipments of concentrate from our Guanajuato operation have impacted our revenue in the second quarter."


    Full report here.

    12 Aug 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It is a bad report and a mixed bag. They apparently have a bunch of unprocessed ore if you believe them. If you don't you may figure they are hitting problems or are trying to bump up future mine numbers by hoarding inventory last quarter. Anyway, everyone is waiting for the final mine assay reports.
    13 Aug 2011, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Given the poor results from the stock picks here and the equally poor readership, I guess I will close this instablog. Perhaps I'll start another one later where people can create another model portfolio. This one has turned out poorly for most every recommendation for some reason.
    13 Aug 2011, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • Well, I wanted to exit mine due to anticipated shorting, remember?


    Would have turned out well!


    I still hold the shares knowing that another reversal is coming - for the first time since February we have 2, IIRC, consecutive decreases in short interest.


    Thanks for hosting this.


    13 Aug 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Moon, seeing that this depression is still not over we may find there are not going to be any good numbers in the near term. Everything is in jeopardy.
    18 Aug 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Good call on SKM, it turned out very well.
    17 Nov 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
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