TJ Marta's  Instablog

TJ Marta
Send Message
  • Daily FX View: CAD, MXN Under Pressure Vs JPY, CHF On U.S. Budget, Debt Concerns 0 comments
    Oct 7, 2013 6:39 AM

    USD lower vs haven FX including JPY, CHF, EUR, GBP while high-yield, risk FX including MXN, CAD underperform.

    • House speaker Boehner says no debt ceiling hike, no budget deal without negotiations

    • USD/JPY moderately lower, testing late-Aug. lows around 97; subsequent support 95.81 Aug. 8 low
    • Technicals suggest upside USD/JPY risk: Daily MACD, RSI, stochastics all oversold

    • EUR/USD modestly higher overnight after Friday's losses; cross looks overbought
    • Daily technicals: MACD, RSI, stochastics at, near highs of June peak above 1.34
    • Weekly technicals: MACD, RSI, stochastics around highs of 1Q when EUR topped above 1.37
    • Options: 25D, 1M R/R -0.4275 high since Feb. as FX retreated from test above 1.37; 1M imp. vol. 7.6750, retreating from top since Dec.
    • Support: 1.3462 Sept. 25 low, 1.3452 Aug. 20 high, 1.3417 June 19 high

    • USD/MXN moderately higher overnight, with MXN underperforming 24 major peers excl. INR; daily trend upwards
    • Daily chart: Consolidating ~13.10-13.20
    • Daily MACD, stochastics trending higher, no sign overbought; RSI high though not overbought
    • 1M imp. vol. 13.56%, in middle of range for past 6 months, neutral on FX direction
    • 25D, 1M R/R 1.9825, at low end of 6-mo. range, suggesting upside for FX

    • USD/CAD modestly higher overnight, with CAD weaker vs 16 of 24 major counterparts; daily momentum remains higher despite retreat from 1.0356 Oct. 2 high
    • Daily MACD, RSI, stochastics all rising, no sign overbought
    • Options indicate upside risk:
    • 25D, 1M R/R 0.7925, near lows since Feb.
    • 1M imp. vol. 5.9175%, near lows since Jan.
    • Daily technical levels:
    • Support 1.0271 Sept. 24 low, 1.0182 Sept. 19 low
    • Resistance 1.0356 Oct. 2 high, ~1.044 Jul. 16, Aug. 7 highs

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own. To contact TJ Marta, click here.

Back To TJ Marta's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.