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TJ Marta
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  • Daily FX View: USD Starting Trend Rebounds Vs EUR, GBP, JPY 0 comments
    Oct 9, 2013 6:43 AM

    Movement in debt ceiling standoff would provide clear fundamental reason for USD rise.

    • President Obama yday said he would accept short-term increase in debt ceiling w/out policy conditions

    • USD/JPY: Higher overnight with JPY underperforming 20 of 23 peers; JPY weighed by BoJ minutes noting moderate economic recovery, Nikkei gains 1%
    • Daily chart: Rebounding from test below ~97, late-Aug. lows, 76.4% Fibo retracement of Aug.-Sept. rally
    • MACD stabilizing near Aug. low; RSI up from low since Aug.; stochastics losing downward momentum around June, Aug. lows
    • Support: ~97, 96.57 Oct. 8 low
    • Resistance: 97.76 Sept. 18 low, 99.67 Sept. 20 high

    • GBP/USD: Lower overnight; GBP down vs 22 of 23 major FX; weighed by unexpected decline in Aug. industrial production -1.1% M/m vs est. +0.4%
    • Daily chart: Testing uptrending channel from July
    • MACD, RSI, stochastics all heading lower
    • Support: 1.5978 bottom of channel, 1.5956 Sept. 24 low, 1.5892 Jan. 23 low
    • Resistance: 1.6260 Oct. 1 high; ~1.63 general resistance since 2012, 1.6335 top of channel

    • EUR/USD: Lower vs 17 of 23 counterparts, off session lows on Aug. industrial production 1.4% M/m vs est. 1.0%, prior revised to -1.1% from -1.7%
    • Daily chart: Breaching uptrend from Sept.
    • MACD overbought, near to crossing lower; RSI falling from high since June; stochastics crossing lower from high since Aug.
    • Support: 1.3462 Sept. 25 low, 1.3452 Aug. 20 high, 1.3417 June 19 high
    • Resistance: 1.3646 Oct. 3 high, 1.3711 Feb. 1 high

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own. To contact TJ Marta, click here.

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