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Daily FX View: NZD, Risk FX Outperform As Debt Concern Abates

NZD outperformed 23 peers as potential short-term compromise in U.S. fiscal crisis emerged, 15 of 23 major EMFX gained vs USD, Bloomberg strategist TJ Marta

writes.

• NZD/USD +0.6% at 0.8339, gains may not last

• 1M imp. vol. extreme, suggest retracement

• Daily chart: Testing above ~0.82-0.835 range since Sept. 25

• Resistance 0.8436 Sept. 19 high, 0.8442 76.4% Fibonacci rebound of April-June decline

• Support 0.8194 Oct. 2 low, 0.8163 Aug. 19 high

• GBP/USD +0.2% at 1.5971, fell back from session high 1.6002 after Aug. construction output -0.1% m/m vs est. +0.8% outweighed prior month revision to 2.8% from 2.2%

• Daily chart: Consolidating within Oct. downtrend

• Support 1.5914 Oct. 10 low, 1.5892 Jan. 23 high

• Resistance 1.6260 Oct. 1 high, ~1.63 genl resistance since 2012

• Risks today in Americas from developments in U.S. debt ceiling talks, Canada employment report,

Mexico industrial production

• While House Republicans, Obama agree yesterday's talks constructive, next step unclear; Senate Republicans head to White House today

• USD/CAD -0.37% at 1.571, on daily chart, consolidating uptrend since mid-Sept.; yday doji indicates risk of S-T decline

• Support 1.0356 Oct. 2 high, 1.0287 Oct. 7 low

• Resistance 1.0420 Oct. 10 high, 1.0472 Aug. 27, 28 low

• CAD employment report, Aug., change in employment, est. 10k, prior 59.2k, unemployment rate est. unch, prior 7.1%, 08:30

• Today provides "clean" reaction to report as response not diluted by concurrent release of U.S. jobs

• USD/MXN -0.2% at 13.0655; on daily chart, down from repeat test of 13.20 since Sept. 27; now testing 13.0380 low of period

• Support 13.0380, 12.5830 Sept. 19 low

• Resistance 13.3440 Oct. 3 high, 13.4383 Aug. 30, 2012 high

• 25D, 1M R/R near lows accompanying spot troughs since April

• 1M imp. vol. approaching bottoms from where USD/MXN has rebounded since July

• MXN ind. prod., Aug., est. 0.1% m/m, 09:00