TJ Marta's  Instablog

TJ Marta
Send Message
  • Daily FX View: NZD, Risk FX Outperform As Debt Concern Abates 0 comments
    Oct 11, 2013 7:28 AM

    NZD outperformed 23 peers as potential short-term compromise in U.S. fiscal crisis emerged, 15 of 23 major EMFX gained vs USD, Bloomberg strategist TJ Marta

    writes.

    • NZD/USD +0.6% at 0.8339, gains may not last

    • 1M imp. vol. extreme, suggest retracement

    • Daily chart: Testing above ~0.82-0.835 range since Sept. 25

    • Resistance 0.8436 Sept. 19 high, 0.8442 76.4% Fibonacci rebound of April-June decline

    • Support 0.8194 Oct. 2 low, 0.8163 Aug. 19 high

    • GBP/USD +0.2% at 1.5971, fell back from session high 1.6002 after Aug. construction output -0.1% m/m vs est. +0.8% outweighed prior month revision to 2.8% from 2.2%

    • Daily chart: Consolidating within Oct. downtrend

    • Support 1.5914 Oct. 10 low, 1.5892 Jan. 23 high

    • Resistance 1.6260 Oct. 1 high, ~1.63 genl resistance since 2012

    • Risks today in Americas from developments in U.S. debt ceiling talks, Canada employment report,

    Mexico industrial production

    • While House Republicans, Obama agree yesterday's talks constructive, next step unclear; Senate Republicans head to White House today

    • USD/CAD -0.37% at 1.571, on daily chart, consolidating uptrend since mid-Sept.; yday doji indicates risk of S-T decline

    • Support 1.0356 Oct. 2 high, 1.0287 Oct. 7 low

    • Resistance 1.0420 Oct. 10 high, 1.0472 Aug. 27, 28 low

    • CAD employment report, Aug., change in employment, est. 10k, prior 59.2k, unemployment rate est. unch, prior 7.1%, 08:30

    • Today provides "clean" reaction to report as response not diluted by concurrent release of U.S. jobs

    • USD/MXN -0.2% at 13.0655; on daily chart, down from repeat test of 13.20 since Sept. 27; now testing 13.0380 low of period

    • Support 13.0380, 12.5830 Sept. 19 low

    • Resistance 13.3440 Oct. 3 high, 13.4383 Aug. 30, 2012 high

    • 25D, 1M R/R near lows accompanying spot troughs since April

    • 1M imp. vol. approaching bottoms from where USD/MXN has rebounded since July

    • MXN ind. prod., Aug., est. 0.1% m/m, 09:00

Back To TJ Marta's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.