TJ Marta's  Instablog

TJ Marta
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  • Renewed U.S. Data Reporting Likely To Show Significant Weakening 0 comments
    Oct 17, 2013 1:00 PM

    Chain store sales, jobless claims, ISM prices point to weaker govt data that will disappoint Fed's outlook for continued economic improvement, QE tapering plans

    • With worsening data, earliest possible initial taper likely in 2014, with increasing odds of 2H 2014

    • Chain store sales falling, highlighting risks to 4Q retail sales ex-autos, personal consumption, GDP

    • Falling chain store sales also indicate risks for labor

    • Chain store sales lead jobless claims

    • Jobless claims higher suggest unemployment turns up

    • Deflationary pressures to continue

    • Non-mfg PMI prices lead core CPI inflation by roughly 12 months; downtrend since 2012 suggests ongoing deflationary pressures

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

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