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Renewed U.S. Data Reporting Likely To Show Significant Weakening

Chain store sales, jobless claims, ISM prices point to weaker govt data that will disappoint Fed's outlook for continued economic improvement, QE tapering plans

• With worsening data, earliest possible initial taper likely in 2014, with increasing odds of 2H 2014

• Chain store sales falling, highlighting risks to 4Q retail sales ex-autos, personal consumption, GDP

• Falling chain store sales also indicate risks for labor

• Chain store sales lead jobless claims

• Jobless claims higher suggest unemployment turns up

• Deflationary pressures to continue

• Non-mfg PMI prices lead core CPI inflation by roughly 12 months; downtrend since 2012 suggests ongoing deflationary pressures

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.