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TJ Marta
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  • (BFW) USD/JPY Pennant May Break On NFP Miss, Setting New Trend 0 comments
    Oct 21, 2013 1:29 PM

    A significant miss in either direction on non-farm payrolls tmrw may provide enough price movement for USD/JPY to break pennant formation from May,
    setting up trend for coming weeks

    • Weekly chart shows USD/JPY wit1hin two weeks of uptrending support/downtrending resistance intersecting, suggesting pennant break imminent
    • Break to downside targets 97.89 uptrending support, 96.57 Oct. low, 95.81 Aug. low, 94.99 May 2010 high, 93.79 June low
    • Break to upside targets 100.61 Sept. high, ~101.5 Apr. 2009, July highs, 103.74 May high

    • USD/JPY changes to non-farm payrolls surprises range from median 0.47%, max 2.61% gains on beats of 50k or more to median -0.22%, worst -1.54% on misses between 1k-99k
    • USD/JPY gained 20 out of 27 times on 50k+ beats; fell 56 out of 73 times on misses <99k
    • Disappointments >-100k, relationship insignificant: USD/JPY fell 13 times out of 24

    • NOTE: Data going back to 2000; USD/JPY changes are for entire trading session

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