Seeking Alpha

TJ Marta's  Instablog

TJ Marta
Send Message
  • No QE Taper Till 2Q At Earliest Based On U.S. Data 0 comments
    Oct 29, 2013 11:43 AM

    Retail sales, consumer confidence belie Fed's hoped-for improvement in growth, while PPI shows no pipeline pressure to ease disinflation concerns, Bloomberg strategist TJ Marta writes.

    • Lack of improvement in growth, inflation pushes likelihood of QE taper start to 2Q at earliest; Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index -0.56, trending lower

    • NOTE: Retail sales, PPI reports are for Sept., prior to govt shutdown

    • Retail sales disappointed overall
    • Total sales -0.1% M/m vs est. 0.0%, first negative print since Mar., 3rd consecutive decline from +0.7% June report
    • Sales ex-auto, gas +0.4% vs est. +0.5%
    • Ex-auto sales as-expected +0.4%
    • Sales control group +0.5% vs est. +0.4%

    • Consumer confidence largest drop since 2011, to 71.2 vs est. 75.0, prior 80.2
    • Echoes surprise drop in U. Mich. report
    • Likely due to govt shutdown, uncertainty regarding budget, debt, healthcare policy going forward

    • PPI provides little expectation for end of disinflation
    • Overall -0.1% Y/y vs est. +0.2%, first negative since Apr.; +0.3% Y/y vs est. +0.6%, low since 2009
    • Ex-food & energy as-expected, +0.1% M/m, low end of range since 2009, 1.2% Y/y, low end of range since 2004

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

Back To TJ Marta's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.