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  • Daily FX View: Downside Risks From FOMC, ADP 0 comments
    Oct 30, 2013 6:56 AM

    USD modestly lower vs 16 of 22 peers before FOMC decision at 2pm, may face further pressure from statement and ADP at 8:15am, Bloomberg strategist TJ Marta writes.

    • Market expects little from FOMC; risk is statement acknowledges softening of growth data for Sept. prior to govt shutdown
    • Downside risk exists for ADP Oct. report; this report will capture govt shutdown; est. 150k, details show forecasts skewed to downside, with some indicating drops to as low as 70k

    • Moody's discussed stripping NZ of AAA rating on curr. acct. deficit concern; while NZD brushed off threat, downtrend continues
    • NZD/USD testing lower toward 0.8194 Oct. 2 low; subsequent support 0.8163 Aug. 19 high; no sign of oversold from MACD, RSI, stochastics; decline builds on last week's outside weekly lower.

    • EUR/USD continues to roll over
    • Further downside likely with MACD fading from high since June, RSI lower from high since Feb., stochastics crossing lower from high since Aug.

    • GBP/USD consolidating yesterday's breach below uptrend from July
    • Stochastics crossing lower, adding to declining RSI, MACD
    • Manages to rise overnight as Lloyds Bus. Barometer rises to 63, record in data to 2002

    • USD/CAD stalling ~1.0472 congested resistance from Aug. 27, 28 low, Oct. highs, 76.4% Fibo rebound of Sept. selloff

    • NOK outperforming 22 peers on data
    • Unemp. for Aug. 3.5% vs est. 3.6%, prior 3.5%
    • Ret. sales for Sept. w/auto fuel 0.7%m/m vs est. 0.5%
    • EUR/NOK testing below ~8.0725 that has held as support during Oct.; subsequent support 7.9625 level prior to Sept. 10 selloff, after Sept. 20 spike

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

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