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TJ Marta
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  • ADP, CPI Add To Risk QE Taper To Be Delayed Beyond 1Q 0 comments
    Oct 30, 2013 9:10 AM

    Softening labor market, ongoing disinflation represent further corroboration of downside risks to Fed outlook and delay in QE tapering to beyond 1Q 2014.

    • ADP for Oct. 130k vs est. 150k, Sept. revised to 145k from 166k; exhibiting a downward bias; downward revision to Sept. provides more evidence of economic weakening prior to govt shutdown

    • CPI for Sept. shows ongoing disinflationary trends

    • Core CPI 0.1% M/m, vs est. 0.2%, 1.7% Y/y vs est. 1.8%; Y/y downtrend from 2Q 2012 continues

    • Overall CPI as expected 0.2% M/m, 1.2%, down from Aug. 1.5%; pressing toward low since 2009

    • Today's data adds to risks Fed pushes QE tapering back from weakness in previously reported retail sales, PPI, pending home sales, industrial production details, Dallas Fed index, and payrolls

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

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