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Daily FX View: Mixed Drivers Allow AUD, JPY To Outperform

AUD up on building approvals, JPY higher on risk aversion, while NZD weighed by RBNZ as FX price changes reflect wide array of impulses.

• AUD outperforms 22 peers overnight building approvals for Sept. 14.4%m/m vs est. 2.8%, high since Aug. 2012

• AUD/USD downtrend stalled

• Higher today after doji yesterday; threatening downtrend since Oct. 23

• Support 0.9442 Oct. 30 low

• JPY higher vs 21 peers on risk aversion observed in declining equities

• USD/JPY consolidating late-Oct. rebound

• Resistance 98.68 Oct. 30 high, 99.17 Oct. 17 high

• Support ~97 late-Aug., Oct. 25 lows

• NZD lags AUD as RBNZ says kiwi strength provides policy flexibility on timing, size of rate increases

• NZD/USD slightly higher overnight

• On daily chart, downtrend losing momentum

• Support 0.8193-4 Oct. lows, 0.8163 Aug. 19 high

• Resistance 0.8544 Oct. 22 high

• EUR underperforming 18 peers on disappointing data

• German Sept. retail sales -0.4%m/m vs est. +0.4%

• Euro zone unemp. for Sept. 12.2% vs est. 12.0%

• Euro zone CPI for Oct. 0.7%y/y vs est. 1.1%, core 0.8% vs est. 1.0%

• EUR/USD decline accelerating

• Support 1.3646 Oct. 3 high, 1.3473 Oct. 16 low

• Resistance 1.3832 Oct. 25 high

• For today, key risks include:

• U.S. jobless claims, 08:30, est. 338k; may be distorted by govt shutdown

• Chicago PMI, Oct., 09:45, est. 55.0, prior 55.7

• Can GDP, Aug., 08:30, est. 0.1%m/m

• USD/CAD uptrend fading

• Unable to hold above 1.0472 Aug. 27, 28 low

• Resistance 1.0497 Oct. 30 high, 1.0560 Sept. 3 high, 1.0568 Aug. 23 high

• Support 1.0420 Oct. 10 high, 1.0271 Sept. 24, Oct. 22 low

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.