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  • Bloomberg First Word, Daily FX View: PMIs Help AUD, EUR, GBP 0 comments
    Nov 4, 2013 7:02 AM

    AUD outperforms 21 peers on retail sales, China PMI, while German mfg. PMI buoys EUR, GBP boosted by construction PMI, Bloomberg strategist TJ Marta writes.

    • China services PMI 56.3 vs prior 55.4, high since Aug. 2012
    • Australia Sept. retail sales 0.8% m/m, high since Feb., vs est. 0.4%, prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4%

    • AUD/USD rebounding on daily chart; watch for trend reversal
    •• Holding above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of Aug. - Oct. rally
    •• MACD differential moderating from extreme oversold level

    •• RSI higher from low since early-Sept. as FX rebounded from below 0.90

    •• Upside target 0.9758 Oct. 23 high, 0.9792 June 3 high

    • EUR/USD modestly higher for session, boost by German Oct. final manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs prelim. 51.5; holding within uptrend from mid-2012
    •• Daily chart suggests potential EUR/USD rebound

    •• Forming bullish hammer pattern with handle testing (unable to hold below) congested support at 1.3473 Oct. 16 low, 1.3462 Sept. 25 low, 1.3452 Aug. 20 high

    •• FX holding testing, holding above uptrend from July low

    •• Upside potential targets: 1.3711 Feb. 1 high, 1.3832 Oct. 25 high

    • GBP/USD modestly higher overnight, helped by Oct. construction PMI 59.4 vs est. 58.7, prior 58.9
    •• Daily chart: FX continues lower; testing toward 1.5894 Oct. low

    •• Breach of Oct. low opens way to decline to 1.5752 June 17 high, 1.5718 Aug. 21 high

    • USD/CAD lower overnight, extending correction from 1.0497 Oct. 30 high, breaching 1.0420 Oct. 10 high support
    •• Further downside supported by MACD, RSI falling from highs since Sept. when FX peaked near 1.06; stochastics at high since Sept.

    •• Downside targets 1.0271 Sept. 24, Oct. 22 low, 1.0182 Sept. 19 low

    •• Canada Daybook: Fairfax's Deadline for Tentative BlackBerry Bid

    • USD/MXN lower for session, consolidating Fri. high since Oct. 11; holding above 13.00
    •• Resistance 13.1016 Nov. 1 high, 13.3440 Oct. 3 high

    •• Support 12.84 support since Oct. 21, 12.7481 Oct. 17 low

    •• Risk today from Oct. consumer confidence, est., 92.8, prior 94.1; Mexico Daybook

    • USD/BRL consolidating gains since mid-Oct.
    •• Resistance 2.2613 Nov. 1 high; ~2.2640 Aug. 12, Sept. 10 lows, Sept. 26 high

    •• Support 2.2090 Oct. 24 high; 2.1472 Oct. 18 low

    •• Brazil daybook: Tombini Speaks in Fortaleza, Focus Survey

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

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