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Despite Beat, U.S. ISM Data Provides Mixed Messages For Economy

Oct. ISM unexpectedly rises, details provide downside risk from foward-looking orders, upside risk for non-farm payrolls report.

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• Headline 55.4 vs est. 54.0, prior 54.4; remains within flat range in place since 2010

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• 4 subindexes rise, 5 drop, 1 unch

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• Forward-looking new orders 56.8, prior 59.6; lower into slightly downtrending range since 2010

• New export orders 53.0, prior 57.5; lower in volatile flat range since 2Q 2012

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• Employment 56.2, prior 52.7

• Remains in moderate uptrend since 2011, exhibits significant relationship with non-farm payrolls

• Together with ADP (130.4k), regression since 2000 suggests 170k non-farms; current median est. from Bloomberg survey 120k

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•NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.