Oct. ISM unexpectedly rises, details provide downside risk from foward-looking orders, upside risk for non-farm payrolls report.
• Headline 55.4 vs est. 54.0, prior 54.4; remains within flat range in place since 2010
• 4 subindexes rise, 5 drop, 1 unch
• Forward-looking new orders 56.8, prior 59.6; lower into slightly downtrending range since 2010
• New export orders 53.0, prior 57.5; lower in volatile flat range since 2Q 2012
• Employment 56.2, prior 52.7
• Remains in moderate uptrend since 2011, exhibits significant relationship with non-farm payrolls
• Together with ADP (130.4k), regression since 2000 suggests 170k non-farms; current median est. from Bloomberg survey 120k
•NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.