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TJ Marta
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  • Daily FX View: JPY Down On CPI Concern; EUR Up On German Accord 0 comments
    Nov 27, 2013 7:31 AM

    GBP higher after GDP, while USD/CAD may be topping.

    • EUR outperforms all major FX except GBP on German accord

    • German Dec. cons. conf. 7.4 vs est 7.1, prior revised to 7.1 from 7.0, high since Aug. 2007

    • EUR/USD +0.24% at 1.3604, session range 1.3558/1.3613

    • View: Bullish; new high for Nov.; no overbought warnings from momentum indicators

    • Resistance: 1.3711 Feb. 1 high; 1.3832 Oct. 25 high

    • Support: 1.3400 Nov. 21 low; 1.3296 Nov. 7 low

    .

    • GBP outperforms all major FX after better than expected private consumption

    • 3Q private consumption 0.8%q/q vs est. 0.6%, high since 2Q 2010

    • GBP/USD +0.44% at 1.6287, session range 1.6198/1.6288

    • View: cautiously bullish; new high since Aug. 2011; momentum indicators high since Oct.

    • Resistance: 1.6381 Jan. high; 1.6618 Aug. 2011 high

    • Support: 1.6118 Nov. 6 high; 1.5905 closing low for Oct., Nov.

    .

    • JPY underperforms all major FX on BoJ rhetoric

    • Kiuchi sees high uncertainty whether 2% CPI will be reached in 2yr

    • Shirai says bank should ease if growth, CPI diverge from main scenario

    • EUR/JPY high since 2009, CHF/JPY high since 1990

    • USD/JPY -0.51% at 101.80, session range 101.18/ 101.81

    • View: cautiously bullish; potentially forming top; consolidating 101.92 Nov. 25 high; ~101.5 Apr. 2009, 76.4% Fibonacci resistance, July 8 high; daily MACD, RSI, stochastics all extremely overbought

    • Subsequent resistance: 103.74 May 22 high

    • Support: 100.87 July 19 high; 100.61 Sept. 11 high

    .

    • CAD mixed vs majors

    • USD/CAD +0.3% at 1.0538, session range 1.0537/1.0561

    • View: Neutral, downside bias; doji days three of past four sessions; stalling around/just below July, Aug. highs; MACD differential slipping; RSI down from high since early-Nov.; stochs showing negative divergence

    • Resistance: 1.0568 Aug. 23 high; 1.0583 Nov. 25 high; 1.0609 July 5 high

    • Support: 1.0526 Nov. 14 high; ~1.05 Oct. high, Nov. closing high

    .

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

    Themes: FOREX
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